LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
May 28/08

Bible Reading of the day.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Mark 10,28-31. Peter began to say to him, "We have given up everything and followed you." Jesus said, "Amen, I say to you, there is no one who has given up house or brothers or sisters or mother or father or children or lands for my sake and for the sake of the gospel who will not receive a hundred times more now in this present age: houses and brothers and sisters and mothers and children and lands, with persecutions, and eternal life in the age to come. But many that are first will be last, and (the) last will be first."

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
Usama's Message: Good Jihadists v. Bad Jihadists.By Walid Phares 27/05/08
Behind the Israel-Syria Talks-By Amir Taheri 27/05/08
Cedar Losing-NRO- 27/05/08
Is Syria defecting from Iran? By: John Loftus 27/05/08
Now we move on to Hizbullah's future-By Nicholas Blanford 27/05/08
Nasrallah said what he had to, but not all that he should have- The Daily Star 27/05/08
The Message From Lebanon: No Room for Trespassers-Arab News 27/05/08

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for May 27/08

Lebanon's Next Prime Minister: Hariri or Saniora?-Naharnet

At Least 10 People Wounded in Beirut, Bekaa Clashes-Naharnet

Lebanese Police Arrest Escaped Female Inmate-Naharnet

Maariv: Military Leaders Under Tight Watch for Fear of Hizbullah Attacks-Naharnet

Saudi Keen on Shielding Lebanon against Internal Fighting, External Meddling-Naharnet

Report: Iran Gave Hamas Telecommunications Network Similar to that of Hizbullah-Naharnet

Gemayel Supports Suleiman, Urges Aoun to Rejoin March 14 Spirit-Naharnet

Lebanese voices on agreement-BBC News,

Israel says Hezbollah exchange deal is close-Ha'aretz

Lebanon daily: Israel waives demand to receive details about Arad-Ha'aretz

Israel Hedges Its Bets-New York Sun

A homemade peace in the Mideast-Los Angeles Times
Resignation of Canada's Foreign Affairs Minister over classified documents left at lover's home
Several wounded after rival factions exchange gunfire in Corniche al-Mazraa-Daily Star

Suleiman prepares for talks on unity government-Daily Star

Nasrallah vows not to use arms to achieve political goals-Daily Star

Hezbollah has warning for Lebanon's new government-The Associated Press

Progress in Hezbollah-Israel prisoner talks-Reuters

Much fanfare as president takes up official residence-Daily Star

Congratulations from around the world rain down on Baabda Palace-AFP

Lebanon's external debt rating receives Merrill Lynch upgrade-Daily Star

Canadian PM congratulates new Lebanese president-AFP

Nasrallah Sets the Weapons Balance Rule with the State-Naharnet

Hezbollah Leader Says His Group Has No Plans to Control Lebanon-Voice of America
Hezbollah promises Lebanon cooperation-CNN International

'Syria transfers weapons to Hizbullah'-Jerusalem Post

Progress reported in Israel-Lebanon prisoner swap talks-AFP

Timeline: Profiles of presidents since independence-GulfNews

Progress Reported in Israel-Lebanon Prisoner Swap Talks

At Least 10 People Wounded in Beirut, Bekaa Clashes
Naharnet/More than 10 people were wounded when pro-government supporters and partisans of Hizbullah and AMAL movement clashed in Beirut overnight with gunfire and grenades, hours after Gen. Michel Suleiman took office as Lebanon's President.
Press reports on Monday said the fight which began with sticks in the Corniche Mazraa neighborhood of West Beirut quickly degenerated into violence, with rival supporters exchanging gunfire and rocket-propelled grenades. Future Television, mouthpiece of parliament majority leader Saad Hariri, said 16 people were wounded in an "attack on civilians" by Hizbullah. Maqassed hospital, however, said it received 18 wounded.
Fighting ebbed when Lebanese army troops cordoned off the area and closed the road between Barbour and Tariq Jedideh.
Press reports said the incident came as Hizbullah supporters were celebrating a speech by their leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, who vowed his group would not use its weapons to achieve political gains.They said followers of Hariri's al-Mustaqbal movement insulted the Hizbullah supporters who reacted by firing off an RPG at the Sunni Abdel Nasser mosque in Corniche Mazraa. Clashes also were reported between partisans of the Hizbullah-led opposition and pro-government supporters in the Bekaa Valley, with gunshots and RPGs fired in the village of Saadnayel, heightening tension before army troops stepped in and restored order. It was the first such incident since the army took control of West Beirut after Hizbullah pulled out its fighters following several days of mostly Shiite-Sunni clashes earlier this month that killed 65 people. The ruling majority, according to some media reports, was cautious following the incident even after calm prevailed over the clashes-hit area since fighting was not just restricted to Beirut but also elsewhere in Lebanon. Majority sources expressed hope that no political motives were behind the clashes, or a "message" to newly elected President Michel Suleiman in a bid to "reinforce the status quo."The sources, however, stressed the violence is proof that the "field is still hot." Beirut, 27 May 08, 08:02

Police Arrest Escaped Female Inmate
Naharnet/Security forces on Tuesday arrested a female prisoner who managed to escape the Baabda prison last week.
Press reports said a police patrol re-arrested Rowaida al-Sayyed as she stood outside the Sayyed building in Shiyah early Tuesday.
Five female inmates scaled a razor-wired window and escaped the Baabda prison at dawn last Thursday, climbing down the first floor with bed sheets tied together.
The inmates were identified as Rowaida Hasan al-Sayyed, Samira Youssef Rafeh and Sumaya Hussein Fakih as well as Samiha Mounir Alou and her daughter Mona Ghanem Alou. Security forces were able to re-arrest Samira Rafeh hours after her escape May 22. She was put back in prison.
Beirut, 27 May 08, 13:07

Maariv: Military Leaders Under Tight Watch for Fear of Hizbullah Attacks
Naharnet/Israeli authorities have kept military commanders under tight watch for fear of Hizbullah attacks to avenge the assassination of the Shiite group's top commander Imad Mughniyeh, the Israeli Maariv daily has said. It said strict vigilance was kept on the residences of army officers holding the rank of brigadier generals and above. Maariv said Israel's main worry was that Hizbullah would try through a Palestinian network to nail down senior Israeli officers in retaliation for Mughniyeh's killing. Beirut, 27 May 08, 11:16

Saudi Keen on Shielding Lebanon against Internal Fighting, External Meddling
Naharnet/The Saudi cabinet has congratulated President Michel Suleiman on taking office and stressed its adherence to the unity of Lebanon and its national decision-making. The Saudi cabinet which met Monday under King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz also expressed its keenness to shield Lebanon against internal fighting and foreign interference. "Protection against internal violence and foreign interference are the grounds for the new phase in the history of Lebanon and are those the Kingdom promotes and supports," said Minister of Culture and Information Iyad bin Amin Madani at the end of the cabinet session.
Beirut, 27 May 08, 10:38

Report: Iran Gave Hamas Telecommunications Network Similar to that of Hizbullah
Naharnet/Hamas has received a China-made telecommunications network from Iran that is very much similar to that owned by Hizbullah, the Israeli website Scoop said.Citing Western and U.S. sources, Scoop said the telecommunications network called "Silge" was of type C-2 and "very sophisticated."
It said Hamas fighters are able to conduct contacts "without any problems and without being intercepted."
Scoop said the telecommunications network, which is made in China, had been upgraded in Iran. It said similar networks are used by the U.S. army.
The sources, according to Scoop, said Hamas fighters who are unfamiliar with modern technology "are facing difficulties using this network."
They said Hizbullah's victory in its 2006 war with Israel "has apparently led Hamas into attempting to stay up-to-date with the latest technology by owning a telecommunications network."Scoop said Hamas fighters are receiving training by Hizbullah "experts" in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley on how to use the network.
Beirut, 27 May 08, 10:14

Canadian PM congratulates new Lebanese president
OTTAWA (AFP) — Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper congratulated Michel Sleiman on his election as Lebanon's new president Sunday and expressed hope the country was "moving in a positive direction."
"Canada stands ready to assist the Lebanese government in any way possible," he said in a statement, adding that the new president brought "tremendous experience and the confidence of the Lebanese people" to the job.
Harper said Canada would support Sleiman and Lebanon's government in facing future challenges, "which include ensuring stability, security, economic growth and the full implementation of all relevant UN Security Council resolutions, such as the disarmament of all non-governmental groups."
"The election of President Sleiman and the agreement signed last week in Doha give us hope that Lebanon is moving in a positive direction," he added.
Sleiman, Lebanon's army chief for the past 10 years, was sworn in Sunday after a parliamentary vote that many hope will turn the page on an 18-month political feud that threatened to plunge the nation back into civil war.
The vote was held just days after the Western-backed government and the Hezbollah-led opposition agreed a deal in talks in Doha to end the deadlock.

Nasrallah Sets the Weapons Balance Rule with the State
Naharnet/Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Monday set a new balance rule based on a pledge not to use his weapons to achieve political gains in return for the state refraining from using its weapons against the opposition that his party leads.
Nasrallah partisans opened up their assault rifles in the air in a show of support for their leader, wounding at least two people in Beirut who were admitted to the Maqassed Hospital.
Nasrallah, in an address to supporters in south Beirut marking the eighth anniversary of Liberation day, also set the record politically by calling for renewing the example of slain premier Rafik Hariri who had backed the nation's economy, supported Hizbullah's resistance politically, but was assassinated by a car bomb in 2005, shortly after backing calls for withdrawal of Syria's army from Lebanon.
"I reaffirm the Doha agreement clause that prevents the use of weapons to achieve political gains," Nasrallah told supporters who crowded at a soccer field in his south Beirut stronghold. "The resistance weapons are to be used in fighting the enemy, liberate lands and prisoners, and defend Lebanon and nothing else," Nasrallah said. "State weapons … should defend the nation, the people and their rights … but cannot be used to settle accounts with a political opponent. State arms cannot be used to target the resistance and its arms," he added. "All weapons should serve the purpose for which they were organized," Nasrallah added.
He declared support for the Doha Accord and pledged to facilitate the mission of President Michel Suleiman as well as the formation of a national unity government I n which the Hizbullah-led opposition has veto powers. Nasrallah said Hizbullah, The fighters of which occupied Beirut and attacked Mount Lebanon two week ago, does not seek to control Lebanon or subdue other factions. The Hizbullah-led opposition, according to Nasrallah, took part in the Doha Accord to salvage Lebanon, Prevent a civil war and prevent a war between "the army and the resistance." He boasted being "a member of the Faqih Party, The Faqih Party tells us Lebanon is a special pluralist nation, don't rule it and maintain its structure," Nasrallah said Hizbullah lost 14 "martyrs" in recent clashes, noting that its allies, mainly Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri's Amal Movement, the Syrian Social National Party and others also sustained casualties, but he did not disclose figures. Police had said 67 people were killed in the confrontations. Beirut, 26 May 08, 21:09

Moussa Urges Syria-Saudi Thaw after Lebanon Deal
Naharnet/Arab League chief Amr Moussa called on Monday for a rapprochement between Syria and Saudi Arabia to build on the deal which ended 18 months of crisis between their local allies in Lebanon. After talks in Damascus with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Mussa underlined the "need to improve inter-Arab relations as quickly as possible so that we can face up to some extremely dangerous challenges." He told reporters that in particular it was "vital that good relations be established" between Syria and Saudi Arabia. Along with Iran, Syria was the leading foreign supporter of the Lebanese opposition in its protracted standoff with the government which drove the country to brink of renewed civil war. A new Lebanese president was finally elected on Sunday, ending a six-month vacuum in accordance with an Arab-brokered deal between the two sides reached in Qatar last week. The foreign ministers of Iran, Saudi Arabia and Syria were all present in Beirut for the ceremony. During their talks in Damascus on Monday, both Assad and Moussa "expressed satisfaction with the election of a consensus Lebanese president" and called for "help in reinforcing Lebanon's security and stability," Syria's official SANA news agency reported. In his comments to reporters, Mussa hailed the "crucial role" played by Syria in reaching a settlement in Lebanon. "This has been a successful Arab initiative that has already resulted in, and should now push us to work harder towards, resolving other Arab (problems)," he said.(AFP) Beirut, 26 May 08, 20:43

Hezbollah has warning for Lebanon's new government
By HUSSEIN DAKROUB – 2 hours ago
BEIRUT, Lebanon (AP) — Lebanon's new president got a red carpet welcome Monday, but was quickly thrust into the political thicket as Hezbollah's leader warned against any efforts to disarm his Iranian-backed guerrilla group.
Sheik Hassan Nasrallah delivered his stern message after military bands and an honor guard saluted President Michel Suleiman on his first day on the job.
Suleiman, the former army commander, was a consensus candidate agreed on by both Hezbollah and its pro-Western political foes, but he drew pointed comments from Nasrallah after saying in his inauguration speech Sunday that there should be a dialogue over Hezbollah's arsenal.
The Shiite militant group has rejected demands it disarm, insisting its weapons are needed to protect Lebanon from Israel.
Nasrallah's speech was his first since Hezbollah fighters seized several areas of Muslim west Beirut in several days of fighting this month, forcing the Western-backed Cabinet to agree to a political deal designed to give Hezbollah and its allies a veto over government policies.
The Hezbollah leader pledged to comply with a provision of the Arab League-brokered agreement that forbids the use of arms to achieve political gains. But he warned that the government shouldn't try to use the military against Hezbollah and its allies.
"The resistance weapons should not be used to achieve political gains," Nasrallah told tens of thousands of supporters crowding a playground in south Beirut, speaking by videolink from a hiding place in fear of assassination by Israel.
At the same time, he said, "the state's weapons should not be used to settle accounts with an opposition political party, or in favor of outside parties that weaken Lebanon's strength and immunity in confronting Israel."
Pro-Western political groups, which hold a small majority in parliament, have repeatedly called for a defense arrangement that would eventually integrate Hezbollah's fighters and weapons into the national army. Hezbollah rejects the idea and also balks at observing a requirement that it disarm included in the U.N. Security Council resolution that ended a month long war between Israel and the militant group in 2006.
Suleiman said Sunday that he supports the U.N. and its resolutions, although he did not specifically mention the requirement for Hezbollah to disarm. However, he said it was necessary to discuss the future of the group's arsenal.
Nasrallah said Hezbollah strongly supported the agreement signed by Lebanon's rival factions in the Qatari capital of Doha, which will give his Syrian-backed bloc veto power in a new Cabinet. The parliamentary majority had staunchly rejected that power for Hezbollah during 18 months of political stalemate, but gave in after the fighting. Hezbollah's leader did not gloat over the political victory, saying the country's factions must work together.
"The national unity government is not a victory against this majority," he said. "This country cannot rise and continue except through cooperation, consensus and solidarity."
But a gun battle in downtown Beirut late Monday underlined the continued tensions, despite an outburst of relief over the political deal. Security officials said supporters of Hezbollah and of the pro-Western government trade shots, leaving nine people wounded.
Nasrallah's speech came a day after Suleiman was elected by parliament and sworn in. His election was the first tangible step in the deal to end the long-running political crisis, which escalated this month into the worst violence since Lebanon's 1975-90 civil war.
Suleiman set to work immediately Monday, scheduling consultations with lawmakers on Wednesday to begin forming the new national unity government, his office said. Paying a visit to Lebanon, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki praised the deal that ended Lebanon's crisis, saying that "the implementation of the agreement guarantees calm and stability in the region." Iran is one of Hezbollah's strongest backers, and the U.S. has accused the Islamic state of interfering in Lebanon's internal affairs. Mottaki said Iran's role in Lebanon is "transparent" and insisted Washington is the one who is meddling.
He said Washington's standing in the region "has been greatly weakened," an apparent reference to the Hezbollah-led opposition gaining the upper hand in Lebanon and veto power in the next government. The U.S. considers Hezbollah a terrorist organization. Nasrallah praised Suleiman's inauguration speech and thanked Syria, Iran and other countries for helping to broker the Doha agreement. Responding to critics from the parliamentary majority who accused Hezbollah of staging a coup this month to rule Lebanon, Nasrallah said his group was not interested in seizing power in this multi sectarian nation of 4 million people. "We don't want power. We don't want to govern Lebanon or impose anything on the Lebanese people because we believe that Lebanon is an exceptional, diverse nation," he said. Nasrallah was marking the anniversary of Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000 after an 18-year occupation of a border zone. The crowd waved yellow Hezbollah flags, and celebratory gunfire reverberated in Beirut and around the city's southern suburbs before and after Nasrallah spoke. Nasrallah predicted Israel will release Lebanese prisoners "very soon," signaling that a prisoner swap for two Israeli soldiers held by Hezbollah since 2006 might be imminent.

The Message From Lebanon: No Room for Trespassers
Linda Heard, sierra12th@yahoo.co.uk
Lebanon desperately needed a hero and miraculously got one at the nth-minute when Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani adopted the role of mediator between the pro-Western government and the Hezbollah-led opposition. During six days of hard negotiations in Doha, Sheikh Hamad and his foreign minister were scrupulously impartial and ruthlessly determined to bring the main players together, reminding them to put the country’s welfare above inter-sectarian power plays.
Sunday was the culmination of Qatar’s efforts. Finally, after six months of stalemate during which the presidential palace had remained empty, Lebanon got a much needed new president. Army chief Michel Suleiman removed his uniform and took the oath of office before international dignitaries, including those from all 22 Arab League nations as well as Iran. Guest of honor at the proceedings was the man who brought Lebanon back from the brink — Sheikh Hamad.
Now that the ceremony and the celebrations are over President Suleiman’s first priority will be to appoint a new prime minister, who, under the constitution, must be chosen from the parliamentary majority. In theory, the new president could invite Fouad Siniora to retain his ministerial portfolio but he has indicated that he has no desire to stay on, which is just as well since he is someone with whom the opposition feels it cannot do business. He will, however, remain as caretaker until his successor is found.
President Suleiman’s message is one of unity, and, respected by all sides, he may be the right person to bring that elusive state about. Certainly, the 59-year-old Maronite Christian has already quelled the fears of Hezbollah and its supporters by, firstly, overturning anti-Hezbollah Cabinet decisions and, secondly, suggesting that Hezbollah’s military wing could eventually be merged with the Lebanese Army.
He has also been full of praise for the role of the resistance in keeping Lebanon safe over the years and, during his swearing-in ceremony, he called for a minute’s silence to remember Lebanon’s martyrs.
Moreover, he had earlier proved there was substance to his words during Hezbollah’s take-over of Sunni-dominated west Beirut when he directed the army under his control to maintain a neutral stance. Naturally, this was unpopular with pro-Western elements within the government, who had hoped the army would rush to their aid, and it probably didn’t go down very well in Washington either, especially since the Bush administration had recently promised to help modernize the Lebanese military. Further, he has sought to extend a hand of friendship to Damascus by calling for the restoration of diplomatic links, and stressing that the peoples of Lebanon and Syria are brothers.
Today, Lebanon is infused with optimism and hope. Stocks are soaring, the capital’s downtown area is once again open for business after being turned into a tent city for anti-government protesters, and the tourist industry has galvanized in preparation for the summer season.
The Lebanese are experts at bouncing back from adversity. It is almost as though there had never been a recent war with Israel or 18 months of political stalemate that had crippled the country’s economy. There is probably no other nation that could dust itself down and celebrate a new dawn with such alacrity.
I don’t wish to put a damper on the euphoria, but if there is to be a new dawn signaling a new era of peace and prosperity then it should be celebrated with the caveat “foreign powers keep out.” A new Lebanese government should not be seduced by sweet words of comfort from Washington, France or Iran when the only blood running on Lebanon’s streets is Lebanese.
Lebanese leaders need to sort out their real friends from faux allies concerned only with Lebanon as a step toward implementing their greater agendas. Hezbollah is without doubt coming to terms with the fact it might not always be able to count on Syria, which is currently talking peace with Israel, while it is no secret that Siniora, Saad Hariri and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt feel the US has let them down.
Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri used President Suleiman’s swearing-in ceremony to give Washington a parting shot after thanking the Arab League, Russia, Italy, Spain and France for helping to quash the crisis. “I thank the United States nonetheless,” he said, “seeing that it seems to have been convinced that Lebanon is not the appropriate place for its plan for the Greater Middle East region. This plan in our opinion has no proper place for the birth pangs or the birth of a New Middle East.”In fact, this new Lebanese reality brought about thanks to Arab intervention may signal a new Middle East, although not the one US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and her boss had in mind. For once, Arab nations have closed ranks to problem-solve and it has worked.
It has worked so well that Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal has called Arab League chief Amr Moussa to congratulate him on his role in achieving Lebanese accord and to request the same paradigm be used to put Hamas and Fatah together. Provided Qatar and the Arab League keep up the impetus this could mean the start of something big, not only for Lebanon but also for the region at large.

LEBANON: 'Resistance' to Israel above all
It was the first fruit of Hezbollah's latest political victory.
The Shiite militant group's leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, said today that armed "resistance" against Israel would remain the cornerstone of the country's defense strategy. Indeed, he strongly suggested that armed struggle against Israel would take precedence over Lebanon's democratic experiment.
On a gigantic screen, Nasrallah addressed thousands of supporters gathered in Beirut's southern suburb to commemorate the eighth anniversary of the end of Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon. His speech came a day after the long-awaited election of a new president in Lebanon, which resulted from a recent Qatar-sponsored political agreement between all Lebanese factions. Nasrallah devoted a big part of his speech to argue that armed resistance and not negotiations, whether in Palestine or Iraq or Lebanon, had proved the only way to liberate Arab soil:
The resistance presented a paradigm and a strategy in two areas and not in one area only: the strategy of the resistance and that of expelling the occupier, and the strategy of defending the nation and the people in the face of aggression and invasion and threats. And he laid down the law as to Lebanon's priorities. The goals of the resistance, he said, remain above the interests of the Lebanese state:

The resistance does not wait for a national and popular consensus. It should carry weapons and move ahead to accomplish the duty of liberation with weapons and blood and high-priced sacrifices.
Nasrallah warned against using force to try to disarm his group:
The resistance's arms are to fight the enemy, liberate lands and prisoners, and defend Lebanon — and for nothing else. The government's arms, or the army and armed forces, is also to defend the nation, the people and their rights, the government, and to maintain security.... The government's arms cannot be used to nail the resistance and its arms. Hezbollah's leader defended the 2006 summer war with Israel that devastated the country and triggered a political crisis temporarily resolved only this week. His fighters' "victory" over Israel had reduced the possibilities of a U.S. or Israeli war against Iran and Syria:
Your steadfastness in this region and your courage and your resistance, which foiled Israel's war against Lebanon, have reduced a chance of wars in the region. The possibilities of a U.S. war against Iran have diminished.... So is the case of an Israeli war against Syria.
There are two dreams: a Lebanese dream and an American dream. The Lebanese dream is that of a peaceful summer and the American one is that of a hot summer. Let us realize our dreams and not those of our enemies, and I promise you and all the Lebanese to exert every effort and overcome grudges and pass over wounds to put our hands together and build the nation.
Nasrallah also said Lebanese prisoners in Israeli jails would "very, very soon" return to their homes, hinting at a possible swap between Hezbollah and Israel. The fate of two Israeli soldiers, whose kidnapping by the Shiite group sparked the summer 2006 war, remains unknown.
In a reconciliatory gesture toward Lebanon's Sunni community, Nasrallah said Lebanon could remain both a bastion of armed struggle against Israel and a land of economic prosperity and foreign investment.
There were also light notes to his speech, as when he blessed Lebanon's coming tourist season.
"I strongly wish and I hope from God that the Lebanese would know a calm summer," he said.

Several wounded after rival factions exchange gunfire in Corniche al-Mazraa
Daily Star staff-Tuesday, May 27, 2008
BEIRUT: A late-night skirmish between rival factions in the Beirut neighborhood of Corniche al-Mazraa on Monday left several people injured, security sources told The Daily Star. The Lebanese Army deployed and closed the roads between Corniche al-Mazraa, Barbour and Tarik al-Jadida and were soon able to contain the fight.Security sources told The Daily Star that the fight broke out when supporters of Hizbullah and Amal paraded in the streets of Corniche al-Mazraa, a predominantly Sunni neighborhood, shortly after Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah concluded his speech to mark Liberation Day.
Sources added that after verbal insults were traded, the fight degenerated and the two groups exchanged gunfire.
The exact number of casualties was not immediately clear. Security sources said nine people were hurt, while Future Television, which is owned by the family of parliamentary majority head and Sunni leader Saad Hariri, said 16 people were wounded in what it called "attacks by Amal and Hizbullah supporters."
The wounded, who included Mahmoud Yassine, Abdel-Nasser al-Omari, Randa Dahdah, Mohammad Bazazo, Saadeddine Assal, Saleh Abou Shedid, Mustapha Seifeddine, Fadi Badr and Bassam Haffar, were rushed to the nearby Al-Makassed Hospital. This was the first incident since the Lebanese Army took control of western Beirut after deadly clashes between pro-government and opposition gunmen in early May killed at least 65 Lebanese and wounded scores more, in the worst internal fighting since the 1975-1990 Civil War. - The Daily Star, with agencies

Suleiman prepares for talks on unity government
By Hussein Abdallah -Daily Star staff
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
BEIRUT: President Michel Suleiman prepared on Monday to launch consultations this week on forming a national unity government as he began his first full day in office and officially took up residence at Baabda Palace. His office said he would begin consultations with the various blocs in Parliament on Wednesday on forming the new 30-member national unity cabinet.
The new cabinet, in which the opposition will have veto power, will replace the government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora which six opposition ministers quit in November 2006, sparking an 18-month long political crisis. The deadlock had left the country's top post vacant for six months and had driven the country toward the brink of renewed civil war. Siniora resigned on Sunday and is now heading a caretaker administration.
The new unity government was one of the key points of the deal which the government and the opposition reached in Qatar last week to end the crisis.
According to the agreement, the parliamentary majority will have 16 seats in the new cabinet while the opposition will be allotted 11 seats. The remaining three ministers will be appointed by Suleiman. The parliamentary majority was expected to hold consultations on Monday to decide on its candidate for the premiership. The coalition is widely expected to choose either Siniora or parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri.
Siniora said earlier that he did not want to head the next cabinet, but acknowledged that the parliamentary majority had the final say on this issue.
Meanwhile, US President George W. Bush called Suleiman on Monday to offer his congratulations on taking office and to invite him to Washington, Bush's spokesman said. "The president invited President Suleiman to come to Washington so the two leaders can meet to discuss issues of strategic importance to both the United States and Lebanon," said national security spokesman Gordon Johndroe.
Bush called Suleiman to congratulate him on becoming president and "reiterated his commitment to the government of Lebanon and to a strong and modern Lebanese Armed Forces."Also on Monday, Syrian President Bashar Assad telephoned Suleiman to congratulate him and promised that Damascus was "at Lebanon's side," according to a report on Lebanese television.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also contacted Suleiman to congratulate him on his election. Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki on Monday welcomed Suleiman's election as a first step toward restoring stability in the country and denounced US meddling in the region.
Mottaki, who spoke before leaving Beirut - where he had attended the Parliament session on Sunday to elect Suleiman as president - said Iran had supported Qatari mediation to end Lebanon's long-running political crisis. "The first fruit borne [from the Doha deal] has been the election of Suleiman," Mottaki told reporters at the Iranian Embassy in Beirut. Mottaki brushed aside accusations that Tehran was meddling in Lebanese affairs, pointing the finger instead at Washington.
"Bush is the one meddling in Lebanese affairs when he encourages the ruling bloc to elect a president with a simple majority," he said.
He was referring to statements by the US administration, which had said it would back the ruling coalition in Lebanon if it went ahead with a simple majority vote in Parliament to end a presidential void. "The Americans must correct their mistakes in the region and we must teach them to listen," Mottaki said.
Meanwhile, Arab League chief Amr Moussa called on Monday for a rapprochement between Syria and Saudi Arabia to build on the deal which ended 18 months of crisis between their local allies in Lebanon and the opposition.
After talks in Damascus with Assad, Moussa underlined the "need to improve inter-Arab relations as quickly as possible so that we can face up to some extremely dangerous challenges."He told reporters that in particular it was "vital that good relations be established" between Syria and Saudi Arabia.
Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem al-Thani also visited Damascus on Monday and met with Assad.
Also on Tuesday, Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) leader Walid Jumblatt said that Lebanon has entered a new phase after the election of Suleiman. Jumblatt stressed that the Doha agreement did not contradict the Taif Accord that ended Lebanon's 1975-1990 Civil War.
"On the contrary, the Doha agreement came to emphasize on the issues that were agreed upon in the Taif Accord," the PSP leader said.
Jumblatt also praised Suleiman's inaugural address, which the president delivered after his election on Sunday. The PSP leader particularly welcomed Suleiman's remarks on the need to establish diplomatic ties with Damascus, demarcate the borders with Syria, and create a new defense strategy for Lebanon.
Jumblatt also stressed the importance of Lebanon's commitment to the international tribunal to try suspects in the murder of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
He added that the new stage requires all parties "to maintain calm and abandon the language of accusing others of treason."
Meanwhile, former President Amine Gemayel, who expressed during a news conference on Monday his solidarity with the elected president, accused Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun of "pretending to fight for the rights of Christians" during the recent talks in Doha. "I call on Aoun to return to the spirit of March 14 ... this is the best way to serve Christians in Lebanon," Gemayel said
Also on Monday, Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir returned from a tour that took him to Qatar, South Africa, the United States and Spain.
Speaking to reporters at the airport in Beirut, Sfeir congratulated Suleiman on his election as president. - With AFP

Nasrallah vows not to use arms to achieve political goals
Hizbullah leader reaffirms party's commitment to Doha accord
Daily Star staff-Tuesday, May 27, 2008
BEIRUT: Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah vowed his group would not use its arms to achieve political gains, and renewed the party's commitment to preserving Lebanese diversity in a speech on Monday to mark the eight-year anniversary of Israel's withdrawal from most of South Lebanon.
"I renew my position today. We do not want to monopolize power in Lebanon and we don't want to rule the country or impose our thoughts on the people," Nasrallah stressed. The sayyed was speaking by video link to thousands of supporters who had flocked from across Lebanon to the Raya football pitch in the Sfeir region of Beirut's southern suburbs. Major General Hassan Mohsen represented President Michel Suleiman at the rally, and MP Ali Hassan Khalil represented Speaker Nabih Berri. An array of diplomatic, political and religious also took part.
"I reaffirm the Doha agreement clause that precludes the use of arms to attain political goals," Nasrallah said, referring to the deal struck last week in the Qatari capital to end Lebanon's long-running political crisis. "The resistance's arms are to fight the enemy, liberate lands and prisoners, and defend Lebanon and nothing else," he pledged, referring to his group's enmity with Israel which pulled out of South Lebanon in 2000.
Nasrallah also warned against the state's arsenal being used to settle domestic accounts. "The government's weapons or those of the army or security forces are to defend the nation, the people and their rights, the government, and to maintain security," he said. "The government's weapons cannot be used to settle accounts with a political opponent. The government's weapons cannot be used to target the resistance and its arms," he added. "All arms must remain in the service of the goal they were created for," Nasrallah said. Referring to the violence that shook the country earlier this month, Nasrallah said he would seek to heal wounds opened during the violence. "Both sides suffered deep wounds," he said. "Either we widen the wound and put salt on it, or we work to heal it for the sake of Lebanon. We choose the latter option."
Nasrallah was speaking one day after Suleiman was elected president. The election ended a long-running political crisis between rival factions that left the country without a head of state since late November. The Hizbullah leader welcomed Suleiman's election as a new chapter for Lebanon. "The election of Michel Suleiman brings hope to the Lebanese of a new era and a new beginning,"he said. "His inaugural speech expressed the spirit of consensus that he promised to act upon in the upcoming period. And this is what Lebanon needs." Nasrallah said he wished the Lebanese a quiet summer in contrast to what he Washington's "dream" of a hot summer, a reference to comments attributed to a US diplomat. "We face two dreams, a Lebanese and an American dream," he said. "The Lebanese dream is about a quiet summer while the American one speaks of a hot summer.
"Let us make our dream come true rather than theirs." He also vowed to work toward restoring unity and reconciling differences. "I promise ... that we will make every effort to get over every grudge, overcome every sensitivity and surpass every wound to put our hands together to build Lebanon and be Lebanon," he said.
Nasrallah also said Lebanon should be able to set the foundation for "a liberation strategy in addition to a defense strategy." "In Lebanon, we talk about defense; what we need now is a liberation strategy for the occupied Shebaa Farms, and Kfar Shuba Hills and the detainees in Israeli jails," he said. The sayyed also said that Israel will release Lebanese detainees it holds "very soon." "The detainees are our commitment; and Samir Kantar and his brothers will soon return to Lebanon," he said. He also blasted US policy in Iraq and Gaza, encouraging resistance and telling the Iraqis "to take an historic stance and not let their country fall into the hands of the invaders." - The Daily Star, with AFP

Progress in Hezbollah-Israel prisoner talks
Mon May 26, 2008
By Nadim Ladki
BEIRUT (Reuters) - U.N.-sponsored indirect talks between Israel and Hezbollah over a prisoner exchange have made major progress, Lebanese political sources said on Monday. A German mediator held talks with officials of Hezbollah in Beirut last week and a breakthrough appeared close. The sources gave no further details, the sources said. Commenting on the report, an Israeli security source in Jerusalem said: "There is progress in the talks. We have been seeing developments since the early part of this month." The source did not elaborate.
Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, in a speech marking the eighth anniversary of Israel's withdrawal from south Lebanon, reiterated his vow that all Lebanese prisoners, including the long-held Samir Qantar, would be released soon.
"Very soon Samir and Samir's brothers will be among you in Lebanon," he told a crowd of tens of thousands via a video link.
The secretive negotiations are designed to secure the release of two Israeli soldiers in return for Lebanese and Arab prisoners.
Israeli military reservists Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser were captured by Hezbollah guerrillas in a cross border raid on July 12, 2006, which prompted a 34-day war between Israel and Hezbollah. Qantar, 46, who took part in a 1979 raid that killed two Israeli men and a four-year-old girl, is the longest serving of at least six Lebanese prisoners in Israel. The U.N.-appointed German negotiator began his mission in late 2006. Very little has been heard of the talks since then.
Israel says the soldiers were seriously wounded when they were seized. Hezbollah, an Iranian- and Syrian-backed Shi'ite Muslim group with a powerful guerrilla army, has refused to say whether the men are dead or alive. Israel and Hezbollah last exchanged prisoners last October, swapping the remains of an Israeli civilian for a captive Lebanese man and the bodies of two Hezbollah guerrillas.In 2004, Israel released more than 400 Lebanese and other Arab prisoners for an Israeli businessman and the remains of three soldiers.(Additional reporting by Dan Williams in Jerusalem; Edited by Giles Elgood)

Much fanfare as president takes up official residence
Six-month vacancy finally comes to end
By Anthony Elghossain -Daily Star staff
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
BEIRUT: President Michel Suleiman entered Baabda Palace Monday, becoming the first person to occupy the presidential residence since November of last year. Suleiman, who took office after a six-month presidential void, became the first Lebanese president to be handed over the palace by the staff that runs and protects it rather than a preceding resident as is customary. The Republican Guard that protects Baabda Palace welcomed Suleiman with a 21-gun salute while a band played the national anthem. After being greeted by the head of the presidential office, Salem Abu Daher, the newly elected president was hailed by raucous applause from various staff members before being inducted into both the Order of Merit and the Order of the Cedars. Suleiman, formerly commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, became Lebanon's 12th head of state after receiving 118 votes out of a possible 127 during an election session held by Parliament Sunday. Despite six abstentions and three invalidated votes for non-declared candidates, the election was more a confirmation than a contest.
Before Suleiman's election, the parliamentary session required to elect a president had been postponed 19 times since November 23 due to the inability of feuding Lebanese parties to come up with a resolution that would facilitate the election. Technically, electing Suleiman required a constitutional amendment because he had not resigned from his "Grade One" civil-service post two years before being elected president, but the political consensus regarding his candidacy pushed him through with little regard for formalities. Suleiman's ascent to the presidency represents partial implementation of the Doha agreement, although the process set out by the accord includes forming a national-unity government and utilizing a modified 1960 electoral framework in parliamentary elections to be held next year.
Baabda Palace is one of two official presidential residences, alongside the Beiteddine Palace summer house that is also reserved for the presidency. In addition to setting up shop in Baabda, Suleiman received a congratulatory phone call from Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, bid farewell to Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifah al-Thani and announced that he would begin consultaions on the new Cabinet with the various parliamentary blocs on Wednesday

Congratulations from around the world rain down on Baabda Palace
By Agence France Presse (AFP)
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
PARIS: Expressions of goodwill from key international players flooded in for Lebanon's new President Michel Suleiman, as he began his first full day in office in Beirut on Monday. Suleiman's election by the Lebanese Parliament on Sunday brought to an end an 18-month political impasse in the embattled country, which came close to the brink of civil war earlier this month. Moscow also welcomed the swearing in of Suleiman, who served as Lebanon's army chief for the past 10 years. "Moscow sincerely welcomes the election of Lebanon's president and we hope ... that Lebanon will leave behind it this period of crises and blows, [and] find the path to domestic peace and stable democracy," a statement from the Russian Ministry of Foreign affairs said.
Former colonial power France was more guarded, saying the arrival of Suleiman would constitute a major change in Paris' relations with Lebanon's neighbor, Syria.
President Nicolas Sarkozy pledged full support for Suleiman and said he hoped the election would allow Lebanon to take a significant step forward and "confront the challenges that await." But Suleiman's election constitutes a "new act" and "we are in the process of examining the consequences to be drawn from the situation," the spokeswoman for the French Foreign Ministry, Pascale Andreani, said, when probed by reporters about French-Syrian relations.
Sarkozy decreed a suspension last December of all top-level contact between Paris and Damascus while Lebanon remained without a president, accusing Syria of hindering a solution to the political crisis there. Syria's official news agency said President Bashar al-Assad had called Suleiman to congratulate him on his election and assured him that Syria would be "by Lebanon's side." After the parliamentary vote on Sunday which handed power to Suleiman, US President George W. Bush said he looked forward to "an era of political reconciliation" in Lebanon.
"I am confident that Lebanon has chosen a leader committed to protecting its sovereignty, extending the government's authority over all of Lebanon, and upholding Lebanon's international obligations under UN Security Council Resolutions," Bush said. The parliamentary vote was held just days after the Western-backed government and the Hizbullah-led opposition supported by Iran and Syria agreed a deal in Doha to elect Suleiman and create a new national unity government.
UN chief Ban Ki-moon said he hoped the "historic" vote would lead to the "revitalization of all of Lebanon's constitutional institutions and a return to political dialogue." The European Union's presidency - currently held by Slovenia - congratulated all parties involved "for the first step" toward ending the political deadlock, saying Suleiman's election "paves the way for the full resumption and functioning of the democratic institutions."
British Foreign Secretary David Miliband said the election was "an important step forward," adding: "We look forward to President Suleiman working with a unity government to bring Lebanon out of its current fragility." German President Horst Koehler said he welcomed "this bold step" toward resolving Lebanon's political crisis and wished Suleiman "good luck in the big challenges that lie ahead of you." Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper said his country "stands ready to assist the Lebanese government in any way possible," adding that Suleiman had "tremendous experience and the confidence of the Lebanese people."
Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani hailed the accord that was signed in his country after six days of crisis talks brokered by Arab leaders.
"We know that there is a rule in Lebanese politics that considers that there is no victor and no vanquished in the political feuds," he said. But this time, he added, the winner had been Lebanon. - AFP

Now we move on to Hizbullah's future
By Nicholas Blanford
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
The last-minute Qatar-mediated agreement among Lebanon's top leaders not only ended a debilitating 19-month political deadlock that brought Lebanon close to civil war, it has also demonstrated that Hizbullah holds both the political and military balance of power in the country.
The Hizbullah-led opposition won key concessions from the Lebanese government and its supporters in the March 14 parliamentary coalition, chiefly winning its long-standing demand to secure a one-third share of Cabinet seats in the next government, thus granting it veto power over unfavorable decisions.
The outcome would suggest a blow to the administration of US President George W. Bush that, throughout the months of crisis, has consistently encouraged its allies in the Lebanese government not to yield to Hizbullah's dictates. Indeed, the United States adopted a curiously ambivalent and muted stance during the recent street battles in Beirut, offering little other than verbal gestures of support for the beleaguered government. Whether this was an indication of the limitations of US influence in Lebanon or hid some broader ulterior agenda it is too soon to tell. Still, few in the Middle East will consider it a coincidence that on the same day the Doha agreement was born, Israel and Syria announced that they had been engaged in secret Turkish-brokered peace talks for over a year.
But Hizbullah's political gains have come at a price. The lightening seizure of western Beirut by Hizbullah fighters has created a potentially dangerous backlash among Lebanon's angry, frightened and humiliated Sunnis. It undermined the moderate Sunni leadership, particularly that of Saad Hariri, the head of the Future Movement, underscoring the military weakness of the community. Sunni supporters of the Future Movement have been clamoring for weapons and training to confront the threat posed by the Shiite Hizbullah, but the leadership remains reluctant to embark on such a fraught course.
A period of stability engendered by the Doha agreement notwithstanding, aggrieved Lebanese Sunnis may shift away from a hesitant moderate leadership in favor of radicalism, finding in Al-Qaeda-inspired groups a source of communal empowerment and protection against Hizbullah.
Al-Qaeda itself may sense an opening in Lebanon, especially with the organization's declining options in Iraq. Recent statements by Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, have focused on Lebanon, Hizbullah and the "crusaders" of the United Nations peacekeeping force in South Lebanon. Already, there are indications in North Lebanon that militant Sunnis are stirring, having previously maintained a low profile.
Hizbullah has expended considerable political capital in the past two years to build alliances with Sunni leaders and groups that share its antipathy to Israel and Western designs on the Middle East. But in the wake of the Beirut battles and the threat posed by a potential mobilization of Al-Qaeda-style groups, Hizbullah will have to work hard to ensure that its existing Sunni allies do not drift away in deference to Sunni hostility toward the Shiite group, while simultaneously reaching out to moderate Sunnis.
Furthermore, Hizbullah's strong-arm tactics in Beirut have delivered a serious blow to the carefully nurtured image of nobility surrounding the "resistance" against Israel. Hizbullah's leaders have always maintained that its military wing was directed against Israel and that its weapons would never be used internally against domestic opponents. True, Hizbullah has also warned repeatedly of a tough response to any attempts to emasculate its military wing, but, for most Lebanese, the sanctity of resistance today rings hollow after watching Hizbullah men battling Sunnis in Beirut and Druze in the Aley district.
The Doha agreement calls for a dialogue on Hizbullah's weapons to be hosted by President Michel Suleiman, who was elected on Sunday. For the March 14 coalition, smarting from the blow inflicted by Hizbullah in Beirut, finding a means of hobbling the Shiite party's ability to employ its weapons tops the political agenda in the coming weeks. But the March 14 bloc has little margin for maneuver before a Hizbullah that resolutely refuses to disarm and has demonstrated in stunning fashion a willingness to use force to protect its resistance priority.
Hizbullah will continue to evoke its argument that its military wing remains a vital component in a national defense strategy against Israeli aggression, and that while it is willing to coordinate with the Lebanese Army it must retain its own chain of command.
Nonetheless, there is potential for compromises if both sides show a degree of flexibility. A useful first step would be to implement the agreement reached during the 2006 national dialogue sessions to regulate the arms held by Palestinian groups. That would mean shutting down the handful of military bases, mainly in the Bekaa Valley, manned by pro-Damascus groups such as the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command and Fatah Intifada. Hizbullah would earn itself some valuable good will if it agreed not to block such a move.
**Nicholas Blanford is a Beirut-based journalist and author of "Killing Mr. Lebanon: The Assassination of Rafik Hariri and Its Impact on the Middle East." This commentary first appeared at bitterlemons-international.org, an online newsletter.

Nasrallah said what he had to, but not all that he should have
By The Daily Star
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Editorial
Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah's much-anticipated speech on Monday was both a relief and a disappointment. As head of the party whose martial muscle prompted the crisis talks that led to the historic compromise at Doha and the ensuing installation of President Michel Suleiman, his perspective on Lebanon's recent travails and immediate future had people glued to their television sets across the country. Fans of the sayyed's sophisticated use of language were treated to his usual rhetorical performance, and the substance of his address contained all the items necessary to keep the process of reconciliation in motion. His remarks were insufficient, however, to dispel the fears of many Lebanese who either do not share some of his views or are still waiting to hear - in detail - just what they are.
On the positive side, Nasrallah seemed earnest in reiterating his customary call for genuine partnership. He also acknowledged the need to heal the painful wounds inflicted on Lebanese unity by the clashes that took place earlier this month when his fighters and their allies went on the offensive against their rivals. Perhaps most importantly, he reached out to other communities by underscoring the fact that the "martyrs" who have fallen for Lebanon have included Muslims, Christians and Druze.
What was missing, ironically, was evidence that Nasrallah fully comprehends just how important he and his party are to the future of this country. There was plenty of truth to his description of US interference as a highly destabilizing factor, but there was no appreciation of just how large Hizbullah looms over any discussion of Lebanon's situation. The fact of the matter is that the resistance movement's sheer power scares many Lebanese and therefore makes them susceptible to the machinations of foreign meddlers offering to "protect" them.
It is not enough for Nasrallah to declare that his party does not want to rule Lebanon. Its weight - and the opposition's garnering of veto power in Cabinet under the Doha agreement - are such that it does not need to govern in order to wield enormous influence. What many Lebanese want to know, therefore, are the particulars of how Hizbullah plans to use that influence. Answering their questions would not just soothe their concerns and begin to put up something like a united front: It would also shore up Hizbullah's own position within that front.
It is true that no other party in Lebanon has fleshed out a proper policy statement, either, and this newspaper will continue to hold them accountable for that failure. It is Hizbullah which is the biggest and strongest player in this game, though, and so it has greater responsibility to be forthcoming, more to gain by doing so, and more to lose by remaining reticent.

Resignation of Canada's Foreign Affairs Minister over classified documents left at lover's home
Mon May 26, 11:14 PM
OTTAWA - The Conservative government was shaken to its core by the sudden resignation of Foreign Affairs Minister Maxime Bernier over a security breach involving secret documents carelessly left at his ex-girlfriend's home. Prime Minister Stephen Harper told an extraordinary evening news conference Monday that Bernier's controversial relationship with a woman linked to the Hells Angels was not a factor in the decision. He said it was prompted by an error involving classified documents and sources say they included briefing material for his trip to the NATO summit where Canada announced it would remain in Afghanistan.
"I don't think it matters who a minister is dating," a grim Harper said in the Commons foyer. "What matters here is that rules respecting government classified documents were broken. "It obviously was not done on purpose. It was a mistake. But it doesn't matter. It was clearly done and that has to be treated appropriately. There are precedents and this obviously is a warning to all ministers."
Bernier becomes the first minister in the Harper government forced out of cabinet by scandal. The foreign affairs portfolio will be assumed temporarily by David Emerson - the ex-Liberal and current Conservative industry minister. The resignation came a scant two hours before Julie Couillard was broadcast on a French-language television network. A source told The Canadian Press that the package included a mix of classified material and other briefing notes publicly available through the Access to Information Act. The package, he said, was preparation material for Bernier's trip to the NATO summit in Bucharest - where Canada announced the extension of its military mission in Afghanistan until 2011.
Government sources say sometime Monday afternoon, the foreign minister glumly climbed the stairs outside the Commons to his boss's third-floor Parliament Hill office to warn the prime minister of what was coming. Just hours before the axe fell on Bernier, the prime minister had dismissed the whole affair.
"I have no intention of commenting on a minister's former girlfriend," the prime minister said to wrap up a news conference earlier Monday with visiting Ukrainian President Victor Yushchenko. "I don't take this subject seriously." He's taking it seriously now.
The prime minister has lost a minister once described as a rising star who was touted as a future leader. Bernier was exceedingly popular in Quebec and he romped easily to victory in Beauce. Bernier's departure makes it a near-certainty that the prime minister will have to shuffle his cabinet. Harper announced Bernier's exit just before leaving the country late Monday night on a European diplomatic trip.
Opposition MPs were baying for further details that could prove extremely embarrassing for the Conservative government. Liberal MP Ralph Goodale said Harper has been "very dismissive" of the Bernier-Couillard affair for weeks. "That raises some questions about his judgment," Goodale said of the prime minister.
Bernier has been under fire for a series of gaffes in his role as Canada's top diplomat, and the revelation that his girlfriend of the past year had once been romantically linked to several men involved with the Hells Angels had security experts - and political opponents - asking whether she had undergone a security check. The question remains unanswered.
NDP Leader Jack Layton said the latest revelation was "the straw that broke the camel's back" for Bernier's cabinet career.
It was with great fanfare that Bernier was sworn in last summer to a cabinet portfolio once held by Lester Pearson, Joe Clark and Jean Chretien. Accompanying him to the traditional ceremony was his new girlfriend, Couillard, and images of the photogenic couple were splashed across the nation's newspapers.
But when he was moved from an economic portfolio at Industry to a post that required diplomatic finesse and a grasp of global issues, Bernier's gaffes began piling up. Bernier met the Haitian president and then got his name wrong. He helped quash efforts to replace the governor of Kandahar by publicly disclosing them. He promised aid for Burma on a plane that wasn't available. Other ministers were sometimes asked to speak on sensitive foreign-affairs issues while the minister was sidelined. A Conservative staffer recently said there were concerns immediately after the House of Commons returned from the 2007 summer recess that Bernier was in over his head. But the prime minister always defended him with vigour - and came to his defence several times as stories about his relationship with Couillard began raising eyebrows. As late as Monday afternoon, he was brushing aside the latest twist in the Couillard saga.
Federal records show that a security firm linked to Couillard bid for two federal airport contracts - one to monitor the activity of screening personnel, and another to install software at walk-through metal detectors. That Bernier's ex-girlfriend was married to one biker and lived with another tied to the Hells Angels has been known for weeks. The government has said Couillard carried no security risk, but it has steadfastly refused to say whether security checks were ever even conducted. In his first Parliament Hill press conference in months, the question was put to Harper and he blew it off.
A spokesman at CATSA said there was no record of any contract bid by the Montreal-area security firm reportedly owned by Couillard, Itek Global Solutions.
But she reportedly played an active role in her late ex-boyfriend's company - D.R.P. Investigation and Security Agency - which bid unsuccessfully on two airport contracts. CATSA spokesman Mathieu Larocque confirmed that the company would have had access to federal documents with basic information about airport security. He said that kind of information would have been provided to all contract bidders, and to members of the public who filed an Access to Information request. "They're not security sensitive," Larocque said of the documents. He said D.R.P. bid unsuccessfully on a pair of contracts in December 2004 and February 2005 to install airport software. One would have helped monitor the activity of screening personnel at locations across Canada, and recorded the time spent by employees at those various locations. D.R.P. also bid to install equipment at walk-through metal detectors that would gather data on passenger traffic at various times of the day. The opposition said there's no reason to suspect Couillard - who has never been charged with a crime - of any wrongdoing.
But they said they have a right to ask questions about ties between a drug-dealing criminal network, firms with an interest in airport security, a minister's ex-girlfriend, and the Canadian government. They reacted indignantly to the suggestion that they're gossip-mongering about Bernier's love life.
"The prime minister says he is not taking it seriously. Well, I'm starting to have difficulty taking the prime minister seriously," said Liberal MP Michael Ignatieff.
"I don't care about (Couillard's) skirts, I don't care about her cleavage, I don't care about her past. I don't care about any of it, it is none of my business quite rightly - but this stuff is not only my business, it is the business of all Canadians." -
Text of PM Harper statement on resignation of Foreign Affairs Minister Bernier
OTTAWA - Earlier this evening, I accepted the resignation of Maxime Bernier as Minister of Foreign Affairs.
Last night, Maxime Bernier became aware that he had left classified government documents at a private residence earlier this spring. I became aware of this security breach late this afternoon".
The documents in question have been returned to the Government of Canada and Mr. Bernier deeply regrets this error.
I have asked Minister David Emerson to take on additional duties as Minister of Foreign Affairs on an interim basis. I have also asked Minister Josee Verner to take on additional duties for La Francophonie."
A copy of Mr. Bernier's letter of resignation is attached.
Text of resignation letter of Foreign Affairs Minister Maxime Bernier
OTTAWA - Prime Minister,
This is to inform you that I am resigning my post as Minister of Foreign Affairs, effective immediately.
I informed you late this afternoon that last night I became aware that I had left behind classified government documents at a private residence.
Prime Minister, the security breach that occurred was my fault and my fault alone and I take full responsibility for my actions.
I have asked the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade to conduct a thorough review of the situation.
Thank you for the trust you have shown in me. I will do everything I can to serve the government well in my capacity as Member of Parliament.
Yours truly,
Maxime Bernier

Behind the Israel-Syria Talks
By Amir Taheri
New York Post | Tuesday, May 27, 2008
EVERYONE had been dancing around the idea of Israel-Syria peace talks for at least a year. Why are they happening now? Will they get anywhere?
Negotiations are under way now because all those involved are under various kinds of pressure.
Syria's economy is in the doldrums. The threat of an international tribunal hangs over its leaders because of their alleged involvement in former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri's murder. A new peace process could divert international attention and persuade the major powers that making peace is more important than bringing Hariri's killers to justice.
Plus, at least part of Syria's leadership also worries about the regime's increasing reliance on the Islamic Republic in Tehran - which has led to Syria's unprecedented isolation in the Arab world.
Even in Lebanon, the cost for Syria is high. For decades, Syria was the main foreign influence in Lebanon. Now Iran has taken its place, and Syria must rely on two Iranian-sponsored and -financed outfits, the Shiite Hezbollah and the Maronite bloc led by ex-Gen. Michel Aoun.
The extent of Iranian influence in Lebanon became clear during last week's Lebanese peace talks in Doha, Qatar: The Hezbollah delegation leader, Muhammad Hassan Raad, had to leave the conference four times to "check things out" with Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Motakki.
Worse still, Iran has built up a network of influence in Syria itself by investing in businesses that employ thousands and distribute favors among the ruling elite. Iranian influence in the Syrian military and security services must concern some Damascus leaders.
Damascus was the capital of Yazid, the Umayyid caliph who ordered the slaying of Hussein bin Ali, the third Imam of Shiism. Conquering the city has been a dream of Hussein's descendants since 680.
Ayatollah Ali Husseini Khamenei, Iran's "supreme guide," claims descent from Hussein. As Iran's president in 1988, he paid a state visit to Damascus with unusual pomp - boasting that he was going to Damascus to show that "Yazid is dead while Hussein is alive and conquering."
Religious and symbolic considerations aside, Iran wants to control Syria and Lebanon as advance posts in what it sees as its inevitable war against Israel. Its efforts in Syria include creating the largest Shiite theological seminary outside Iran, plus a massive campaign of "Shiificiation" via 14 Iranian "cultural centers" recently opened in Syrian provinces.
"We are facing an existential threat," says a senior Syrian personality. "Tehran wants to transform Syria into an Islamic republic in all but name."
Syria's leaders can't counter the Iranian threat without finding friends elsewhere, notably among moderate Arab states, the Europeans and the United States.
Israel, for its part, regards some measure of normalization with Syria as an urgent priority. A less hostile Syria would make it more difficult for Iran to threaten Israel with asymmetric warfare via Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.
Cynics might also suggest that Israel's beleaguered prime minister, Ehud Olmert, is using talks with Syria as a diversion from his troubles with the police in connection with allegations of corruption and money laundering. Even if indicted and forced to resign, Olmert could at least bow out with the claim that he revived Syrian peace talks.
The Bush administration, meanwhile, also hopes for some good Middle East news to burnish its legacy. Peace with Syria would be a miracle, hiding the fact that there's no progress on the Palestinian front.
Why did Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan play the key role in restoring Syria-Israel contacts? Turkey doesn't wish to be sandwiched between a hostile Islamic Republic in Iran and its client regime in Syria. The Irano-Syrian axis isolates Turkey further, since Turkish relations with Iraq remain tense because of the Kurdish issue.
There's also a domestic Turkish angle. Some in the moderate Islamic coalition that swept Prime Minister Recep Tayyib Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) to power have never been comfortable with Turkey's close ties to Israel. At least a dozen AKP parliamentarians have pressed Erdogan to scale back. Renewed Israel-Syria contacts could ease those pressures, strengthening Erdogan at home and regionally.
Will the talks get anywhere? One should never lose hope, but the chances of peace breaking out remain low. Syria can't easily abandon Iran, something that Israel is demanding as a precondition. And Israel can't commit itself to handing back the Golan Heights, which Syria insists upon as a precondition.
Regimes of opposite natures can never make peace with one another. At best, they can reduce tension and, perhaps, conclude a cease-fire. Right now, though, even that remains a remote possibility as far as Israel and Syria are concerned.

Cedar Losing
NRO/By the Editors
Hezbollah is proving to be a very capable and determined force in Lebanon, and a great danger to the wider world as well. In July 2005 it overplayed its hand by attacking Israel and bringing retribution down on itself and on the Lebanon it claimed to be protecting. Since then, however, the main imperialist instrument of Iran has enjoyed running rings around the United States and the United Nations, neither of which has any coherent idea of what is to be done.
As the self-appointed representative of the Shiites — and armed and financed by Tehran — Hezbollah and affiliated agents have been busy murdering personalities from the Lebanese Christian, Druze, and Sunni communities, and making sure to intimidate everyone else. This has the desired effect. Shiites already are the majority in the country, while Christians and Druze are more or less reconciling themselves to second-class status and probable long-term repression. Not so the Sunnis.
The confrontation between Shiites and Sunnis is shaking the whole Muslim world, and has the capacity to precipitate civil war in many a country, and above all right now in Lebanon. Saudi Arabia and Egypt, the preeminent Sunni states, are outraged by this Shiite drive to dominance, and thoroughly frightened by it, as well they might be. The Iranian nuclear program only confirms that the balance of power throughout the Muslim world is shifting in favor of the Shiites, hitherto underdogs. Accordingly, the Sunni states have been urging the Lebanese Sunnis to go on the offensive, and helping them to do so.
Last November, the mandate of the then Lebanese president expired. Ever since, Hezbollah has blocked all attempts to elect a successor, prolonging a tense political stand-off. The so-called March 14 governing coalition under Prime Minister Fuad Siniora continuously tried to assert the nation’s sovereignty and independence of action. A few days ago, an evidently baffled Siniora began an open trial of strength by ordering the army to take steps that would lead ultimately to disarming Hezbollah and converting it into a political party like any other in a democracy. Composed largely of Shiites, the army refused to tackle other Shiites. Sunni militias were not so reluctant. Nearly 100 people died in the same sort of Shiite versus Sunni confrontation that is happening in Iraq and which could break out in any other place of Iran’s choosing.
The victorious Hezbollah then played its cards with consummate skill. In an agreement reached in the Qatari capital of Doha with the Sunnis, Hezbollah at last consented to the choice of a new Lebanese president, as first proposed all those months ago. In return, it obtained enough seats in the cabinet to be able to veto any measures it does not favor, and therefore it made sure to retain its arms and its capacity to initiate wars.
In effect, Hezbollah has power but not responsibility, the dream position of a militia with no legal or constitutional standing. In this bind, without the monopoly of state power, the Siniora government is unlikely to last much longer, and Lebanon may well fall with it. Then the ayatollahs in Tehran will garner yet another Shiite colony, one which would give them access to the Mediterranean. The Doha Agreement looks like today’s version of the 1938 Munich Agreement, whereby a democracy bites the dust and the on-lookers either pretend not to notice or cry “Peace in Our Time.”

Usama's Message: Good Jihadists v. Bad Jihadists
by Walid Phares
Posted: 05/27/2008 Print This
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=26655#continueA
In his latest audio released by as-sahab (media arm of al Qaeda), the organization’s Zaeem (supreme chief) elaborates on the difference between the pure Jihadists and those Islamists who lost their way and determination to continue the fight in the path of the founding fathers, which he calls the "Salaf of Islam." This complex speech (by Jihadist standards) can be only understood -- and thus explained to decision-makers and the public if the listener-analyst is able to grasp the multi-layered world of Jihadism.
But this task has been made unnecessarily difficult for most citizens and certainly impossible to those who in the US bureaucracy are supposed to do the job. By disseminating the so-called "Lexicon", the Bush administration, bureaucrats are prohibited from using the words Jihad, Jihadism, Caliphate, Salafism, Islamism and the like when writing about and analyzing matters related to terrorism. This ridiculous proposition is now put to test when al Qaeda leaders -- and other Jihadist high profile figures broadcast their statements.
Just imagine the poor analysts at the various counter-terrorism centers who chose to apply the new directives to the bin Laden letter. How can these CT bureaucrats process Bin Laden's words which they can't use or touch "when dealing with Terrorism"? One can imagine them staring at these "forbidden words" attempting to replace them with "Lexiconic" terms. So how will they handle such texts? Some are suggesting that the end product of these "Lexiconic" analysis will not only be absurd, but will further confuse the consumers of the intelligence assessment, from the defense and national security sectors up to the highest congressional leaders and of course, the President.
We are not constrained by the “Lexicon”. Let’s dismiss it for the tragicomedy it is. So in real terms, how shall we analyze the latest Bin Laden audio?
The number one of al Qaeda addressed what he perceives as the Umma that is -- in Arabic -- the global community of Muslims. Bin Laden’s audio message was specifically aimed at those in the Umma whofollow his ideology of Salafi Jihadism, that is the return to the ways of the founders of the Caliphate. Bin Laden wishes the entire Umma to follow the struggle of those Jihadists who haven't diverted from the historical line of the successive Khilafa from the first four Wise Caliphs, the Rashidun, to the Umeyads, Abbassids and the Ottoman.
This attitude has been consistent with all Bin Laden's speeches since 1996. He hasn't shaken his belief in the final reconstitution of the Islamic Empire since he rose to the leadership of al Qaeda, and even years before. So the bottom line of this speech is to lecture Muslims on who is in line with Jihad and who isn't. He dissects the various post Ottoman struggles, including the rise of the "Zionist entity", the Arab modern states and elevates the "best Jihadists" to the zenith and curses the apostate Muslim regimes. In between, he mildly criticizes those Islamists who believe in the final caliphate but who have, in his mind "sold out" to the rulers and the infidels.
The opening of his statement cannot avoid the vision of a US President and other leaders attending the 60th birthday of Israel. Jihadism, as an ideology, cannot accept the principle that a Jewish entity can be established in Palestine, on any part of the Holy Land. Their ideology cannot accept the existence of any Kafir state (infidel country) within the confines of the Caliphate. Thus, to al Qaeda's Jihadists, it is not about land but about Kufr ("infidelism"). In his world view, so-called humanitarian values are empty; international law – whenever it conflicts with their ideology -- is rejected.
Bin Laden’s historical reading is that Nassara (Christians) and Yahuud (Jews) have taken a "Muslim" land for more than eighty years. And the story is who among Muslims fought back as an "Islamic" force and who among them wavered, or collaborated with the salibyeen (Crusaders). Bin Laden, as I argued in my two post 9/11 books, Future Jihad and the War of Ideas, is the product of an ideology that sees direct link between the past and the present, between the old state-Jihad and his contemporary Jihadism. He certainly doesn't mean Yoga when he uses the J-word.
Hence, in his new audiotape he regurgitates the classical Salafi tale of the Ottoman collapse. After the fall of the Turkish Sultanate the world turns bleak. The New Crusaders shows up; they appoint "agents;" Arab Muslim monarchs -including Sheriff Hussein and even Abdel Aziz Bin Saud- is irresponsible. In addition, "British agents" control Arab Armies; the "Jews" control Palestine; infidel wolves devour Muslim sheep, and on and on. Bin Laden then mentions that finally Islamist groups are formed in the region and they were supposed to begin the struggle for the Caliphate, or al Jihaad fi sabeel Allah. He means the Muslim Brotherhood and the classical Wahabis. "They sought Jihad but weren't successful." Many left that Jihad later and befriended the Muslim "rulers" themselves friends of the infidels. For 90 years they went from failure to failure, from Indonesia to Mauritania, he said.
"Aah, if salah al Deen (Saladin) was here," laments Usama. "How different he was from today's Arab rulers. First he was committed to the real (religious) teaching." He quotes from the scriptures: "Qatil Fi Sabeel Allah laa tukallif illa nafsaka, wa harrid al Mu'mineen, Qatil al Kuffar." (Fight for Allah, mandate yourself and incite the believers, fight the Infidels).
Bin Laden compared: "Look at these Arab rulers how they deviated from Salah al Deen. See how the U.S ordered changes in the educational curriculum and Peace with Israel." Second, Saladin consulted with the Ulemas (clerics). But Arab rulers jail them, pay some to become their masters voices and they become Ulama' al Su' (Evil Clerics). Hence, one can see that all what al Qaeda has to do to de-legitimize the state-clerics is to accuse them of deviation from the real principles of Salafi Islam. To rely solely on better funded clerics who chant "another" Jihad will hardly work. Bin Laden’s message is by far more "authentic" in Islamist circles.
Lexicons can't defeat his devastating message.
Thirdly, Usama borrows from history and scores another point. "Saladin fought the Muslims who sided with the Crusaders." Thus he grants legitimacy to his Jihadists against the "Muslim apostates" allies of the infidel U.S. "They call us Kharijites and Takfiris," but we are the real Jihadists. One can see here the problem of attempting to play with linguistic-religious fire. Indeed, who can determine who more Jihadist than another is? Certainly the rich and Western leaning Jihad bearers cannot withstand the ferocious Jihadists of nowadays. They can't stand a chance.
I have a piece of advice to the self proclaimed architects of the "Lexicon Eureka": Don't play Jihad with the Jihadists: they will overwhelm your experiments.
Bin laden moves to discredit the other less successful Jihadists: Those Islamists who wait for approval from Riyadh for Jihad aren't going to make it. The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood is too tactical: they will not succeed, says bin Laden, because they occasionally deviate from the ideology.
Hizballah chief Hassan Nasrallah is on a defensive Jihad. Why doesn't he attack? He has accepted the infidel UNIFIL. Ironically, Bin Laden quotes the previous secretary general of Hizballah, Subhi al Tufaili criticizing the current leader of the Iranian backed organization. Pushing the envelope to the deepest end of pure Jihadism, Usama says "stating that Islam is the solution is not enough," hinting at the classical Islamists (who work to penetrate the West and reestablish the Caliphate). He wants them to follow the strict Manhaaj, the methodology of the best Jihadists, i.e., his.
His methodology is pure. "No rules from the UN or the so-called international legitimacy but only the book of Allah and its Sunna," as he defines it. His view of the Palestinian question is simple: fight the apostate Muslim Governments who are obstructing the real Jihadists from striking at the heart of the Jewish state, then eradicate the latter. He informs his followers, the pure Mujahideen, that the Muslim rulers are not good enough to wage Jihad. They haven’t fully applied Sharia, and dared introducing few positive laws. That would be Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco.
In his eyes, the classical Islamists aren’t better. These regimes and movements that see eye to eye on the long run, i.e. the Caliphate and the Islamization-process, are in Usama’s eyes long term Jihadists: Not daring enough. These types of shy Jihad and long term one aren’t what Bin laden believes were the prescriptions of the Sahaba, the early companions of the Prophet. Immersing himself in 7th century Salaf, meaning the examples of the founding fathers of the Caliphate, he dismisses today’s regimes and movements who are adopting too much tactics, and being -- one would say comparatively -- too politically correct.
Ironically, a Jihadist who is too PC in the eyes of Bin laden is the one who do not explicitly declare that he is on a Jihad campaign for the reestablishment of Caliphate. Amazingly, in its essence, the message of Bin Laden to the other side -- that is to the infidels -- is that there are two Jihadisms moving forward. His own pure Jihad, open, honorable and direct (as he portrays it) and the Jihad of the Wahabbis, Muslim Brotherhood and even the deviationist one of the Khomeinist-inspired Hizballah. What Bin laden reveals -- indirectly -- is that his competitors are perfidious, power hungry and deceptive. Coming from the commander of al Qaeda, this is very revealing. He wants to be perceived as the real Jihadist and the others to be looked at as the false ones.
How apropos as some in the West, and lately in the United States are trying to assert, that the Wahabbis and the Muslim Brotherhoods are the real, albeit inoffensive, “Jihadis” while Bin Laden is a common criminal, nothing more nothing less.
What is to be learned from this audio tape, other than the repetitive calls to the combat Jihadists to fight wherever they can, is that we are facing off with two types of threats. One is the smallest in size, openly aggressive, and fully engaged in direct action against his enemies. The other is the largest movement, which emanates from the same ideology and aim at the same far goal, but follow a more deceptive path, at the pinnacle of which is its assertion that Jihadism should not be seen as a threat, obviously, until it is too late.
This is a lesson Americans must absorb as fast as they can. For they aren’t up against just one enemy which face they can see, but they are now being menaced by a stealthier enemy, one that is penetrating their homeland and paralyzing their resistance.
**Dr Walid Phares, author of Future Jihad: Terrorist Strategies against America, of The war of Ideas: Jihadism against democracy and of the forthcoming book, The Confrontation.

Is Syria defecting from Iran?
By: John Loftus
26 May 2008
While I understand that no "final" understandings have been reached, the mere fact that Syrian and Israeli governments chose this week to openly acknowledge the ongoing peace talks gives credence to the Israeli Director of military intelligence's amazing assertion last weekend. Mr. Yadlin claimed that Syria may be planning to sever its ties with Iran, in favor of closer ties with the West.
DMI Yadlin's assessment of an imminent Syrian volte-face makes great economic sense to me, as the Chinese have just completed the world's largest oil refinery in Deir as Zour, Syria. Its financial success will be largely dependent upon the importation of Iraqi oil, and only the blessings of the USA will make that happen. I think that the Assad Mafia believes there is more money to be made from refining Iraqi oil for the Americans and Europeans, than from Iranian handouts.
The Israeli, Syrian and American silence about the pair of nuclear weapons sites raided in Deir as Zour last year may have been the reason why Syria is now jumping ship. Look at it this way: last September 6, the Syrians got the message that the Israeli air force could slip through their new Russian air defense system without the slightest problem. If the IDF could bomb two nuclear development targets in Deir as Zour, then the IDF could bomb the nearby Chinese refinery any time they wanted.
Also, I hear Israeli commandos had a great success stealing Syrian hard drives in the Deir as Zour raids, with information directly linking Iran to hiding nuclear weapons projects in Syria. The Israelis have something valuable to trade with the Americans in return for lifting the Syrian embargo. My take is that most of the Syrian peace deal has already been done, and this is just a PR show to gradually educate the Syrian public that de facto recognition of Israel is coming. The fact that Yadlin, the Director of Israeli Military Intelligence, chose last weekend to give his first interview to the press and then chose to reveal the possibility of a Syrian breakaway is certainly no coincidence.
The proposed demilitarization of the Golan and Chabba farms and gradual return back to Syria does not necessarily detract from Israel's security, and if, as alleged, Syria will also cut its ties with Hezbollah and Hamas, will greatly increase Israeli security.
If Syria does in fact break with Iran, then that means the Bekaa Valley will no longer serve as a transit point for the delivery of Iranian arms to Lebanon. If Syria seals the border with Lebanon, this might encourage the UNIFIL force to change its status from "unimportant, timid tourists" to act as a military unit that has grown a pair, assisting the Lebanese army in conducting house to house searches for Hezbollah weapons sites south of the Litani River. Without the threat of rockets fired from Lebanon, Hezbollah would cease to be a major threat to Israel.
Moreover, if the ever greedy Assad clan really does change sides, Syria will no longer serve the Iranian IRGC as a staging area for attacks on Iraq. General Petraeus recent clearing of insurgent activity in Mosul could also pave the way for the export of Northern Iraqi oil to Syria through the old Hess pipeline. I note that the Chinese refinery in Deir as Zour is not far over the border from Iraq, and suspiciously convenient to the old Hess pipeline. Another interesting coincidence is the recent announcement that the proven oil reserves in Iraq are now greater than 350 mbbl, larger than Saudi Arabia's, formerly the largest in the world.
Thus, even though it may take another two years for the Saudis to finish their western pipeline to connect to Syria, it looks as if time is running out for the Iranian chokepoint on the straits of Hormuz, which means the end of their power. There is another oil pipeline across Jordan which the Saudis could use almost at once, but it ends up in Israel, so that is politically unlikely. But, if the Syrians can change sides, anything is possible.
Moreover, there is something in all of this for the House of Saud, the destruction of their Shiite enemy to the East. If, as the Israelis now publicly suggest, the US should now mount a blockade of Iranian oil exports, it would mean the end of the Iranian economy which is 90% dependent on oil exports. This, of course, would immediately send the oil speculators into a screaming frenzy, pushing prices above $200 bbl., but not for long.
The sudden Syrian-American announcement of the reopening of a pipeline to transport the new huge reserves of Iraqi oil to the new huge refinery in Syria would drop oil prices like a rock, and cut the feet out from under the speculators. If the EU could import its oil by Syrian tanker routes across the Mediterranean, rather than out from under the Iranian guns at the Straits of Hormuz, we could witness a sudden sharp and permanent drop in the price of oil, wiping out the speculators. Some economists think that as much as 60% of current oil prices are due to speculatory inflation and that the price bubble is ready to burst.
My cynical side says that oil and politics mix all too readily, and that we might see the timing of a Syrian-Israeli announcement of a final peace deal in time to elect McCain as President, but that of course is merely a hunch on my part. The smarter move may be to wait until the Saudi-Syrian pipeline is completed, which potentially moves most of Europe's oil out of the path of the Straits of Hormuz and away from Iranian revenge.
Like the Russian VLCC crude carriers, Syrian-chartered tankers could take a short trip down the coast, and offload their oil at Ashkelon, Israel. For Asian customers, this saves money and time in shipping oil around Africa. Instead the oil flows from Ashkelon, down the Israeli pipeline to Eilat, is reloaded back onto tankers, and shipped out the Red Sea for delivery across the Indian ocean to China.
This could explain the sudden interest of the Chinese in building the world's largest refinery in Syria, which has almost no oil of its own and is presently under an American-lead export embargo because of Syria's support for terrorism against Lebanon, Israel and Iraq. That could all change of course, if the peace deal gets signed, and Iraqi oil gets shipped to Syria.
The Iraqi - Syrian oil connection would be for the Chinese import as much as for the European markets. This need to guard the eastern oil shipping routes would also explain the mad Chinese rush to expand their naval forces, as well as the recent decision by the Government of India to purchase an American aircraft carrier.
I note the recent arrival of a second US carrier group off Iran. Since the navy now openly concedes that they have no defense to the Russian sunburst missile (let alone any of the new Chinese missiles), the US fleet would have to stay at least 220 miles off the Iranian coast to stay out of range. But a fleet standing that far off the coast could still blockade Iranian oil, as well as defend the Red Sea - Indian Ocean route from Iranian air attacks.
The US Navy is much better suited to defending sea lanes from a handful of long-range Iranian aircraft and ballistic missiles, than in supporting an offensive move against Iran. As much as I respect my old friend Lt. Gen. Tom McInerney, I do not think we have either the target intelligence or the allied support for a military attack on Iran. Do the math. If we have 300 plus known Iranian targets, that means 600 plus air missions to ensure their destruction. We would need the augmentation of significant numbers of French and British fighter bombers to pull off a bombing campaign of that size, which is not likely to happen in this political climate.
Which leaves Israel. Suppose the rumors are true that North Korean tunnel builders have hidden the Iranian nuclear complexes beneath the Holy Shrine of Moshad in northeastern Iran, then the target would be off limits to Israeli bombers for political reasons as well as completely out of range. Israeli fighters lack equipment for carrier landing, as well as extended mid-air refueling capacity. They could not fly repeated round-trips to Moshad, even if they wanted to.
There are lots of airstrips in western Afghanistan, and a decent airport just north of the Iranian border in Khazekstan, but I do not think either Islamic government would permit their territory to be used as forward bases for American or Israeli airstrikes on Iran.
I do want to see what happens tomorrow in the UN when El Baradei returns his report that Iran is still refusing to cooperate on nuclear inspections. If in the next few months the security council votes for increasing sanctions, including an oil blockade against Iran, then that would tend to support Israeli intelligence' leader Yadlin's stunning assessment that a Syrian-Iran break is imminent, and the Israeli Prime Ministers near simultaneous call for a sea blockade of Iranian oil exports.
My Iranian friends tell me that they doubt Ahmadinejad's government could survive three weeks without oil revenue needed to keep their welfare state afloat. A blockade also means the end of Indian gasoline exports, which accounts for nearly half of Iran's daily consumption. The whole country would literally grind to a halt. Don't get your hopes up, this is still the Middle East where anything could happen. It would be ironic though, if an Israeli-Syrian peace deal provided the economic weapon to crush the largest state sponsor of terrorism in the world.
**John Loftus is currently working on his sixth book, Manifest Deception: the secret history of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East. His fifth book entitled The Witness Tree has just been published in Canada. It is a historical novel exposing the behind the scenes intrigue that created the state of Israel.