LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
May 06/08

Bible Reading of the day.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 16,29-33. His disciples said, "Now you are talking plainly, and not in any figure of speech. Now we realize that you know everything and that you do not need to have anyone question you. Because of this we believe that you came from God." Jesus answered them, "Do you believe now? Behold, the hour is coming and has arrived when each of you will be scattered to his own home and you will leave me alone. But I am not alone, because the Father is with me.I have told you this so that you might have peace in me. In the world you will have trouble, but take courage, I have conquered the world."

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
Assessing Nuclear Activity in Syria and Iran.By INSS: Emily Landau.Canada Free Press 5\05/05/08
Cloak and stagger-By Leonard S. Spector and Avner Cohen.Los Angeles Times 05/05/08
In Lebanon, Hezbollah arms stockpile bigger, deadlier-By Sebastian Rotella. -Los Angeles Times 05/05/08
How are the Lebanese expected to interpret their leaders' stubbornness?.The Daily Star 05/05/08

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for May 05/08
Hariri insists Arab initiative begins with election of Suleiman-Daily Star
Twin incidents put FPM in the crosshairs-Daily Star
Fadlallah calls for socioeconomic remedies-Daily Star
Sfeir departs on multi-continent trip-Daily Star
Conditions at Palestinian camps shock German ambassador-Daily Star
What Zawahri's words really mean for Lebanon and the 'war on terror'-Daily Star
Barak hypes Hizbullah threat again-Daily Star
Azour stands by plans to open up Beirut's airport-Daily Star
Ethiopia bans citizens from seeking work in Lebanon-Daily Star
Palestinians set to miss out on Lebanese wage hikes-By IRIN News.org
Rice says Israelis 'will have to do their part' in West Bank-AFP
Report: With Iran's help, Hezbollah can intercept calls in Lebanon-Ha'aretz
Top Lebanon Christian cleric heads for US talks-AFP
Qabalan to Rival Political Leaders: Be Wise-Naharnet
Moussa Takes Hizbullah Phone Network Issue Home-Naharnet
March 14, Jamaa Islamiya: Saadiyat Incident Evidence of Hizbullah Expansion-Naharnet
Hariri Meets Kuwaiti Emir-Naharnet
U.N. to Seek Speedy Implementation of 1559 after Report Hizbullah is Spying on Airport-Naharnet
Hizbullah's Arms Stash Growing Bigger, Deadlier-Naharnet
Saniora for 'Sound' Relations with Syria-Naharnet
Sfeir to Meet Bush on U.S. Visit-Naharnet
Jumblat Hammers Hizbullah 'Before they March in My Funeral … Or that of Saad Hariri"-Naharnet
Mirza Launches Investigation in Hizbullah Airport Surveillance Case-Naharnet
Moussa Leaves Stressing on Dialogue-Naharnet
Happy anniversary? Israel at 60-Independent
Rice links Israel-Syria peace push to Lebanon: paper-Reuters

Sfeir to Meet Bush on U.S. Visit
Naharnet/Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir is due to begin Sunday a two-month tour of the United States and South Africa, the daily An Nahar reported.
Citing sources in Washington, An Nahar said U.S. President George Bush will discuss with Sfeir at the White House the issue of presidential election.
The sources said Sfeir will also meet U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Bush will reportedly reiterate "Washington's commitment to help Lebanon confront the challenges which threaten its future and cripple legitimate institutions." Sfeir is due to arrive in New York May 15, after winding up a trip to South Africa.
Beirut, 04 May 08, 13:30

Sfeir departs on multi-continent trip
By Anthony Elghossain -Daily Star staff
Monday, May 05, 2008
BEIRUT: Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir left Beirut on Sunday, beginning a trip that will take him to Qatar, South Africa, the US, and Spain. Speaking at Rafik Hariri International Airport, Sfeir implied that his itinerary was shaped by formal invitations received by the patriarchate from heads of state and private institutions - he will reportedly be honored at Villanova, a Catholic university in the US state of Pennsylvania - but that the expansion of the Maronite Church within the far-flung Lebanese diaspora is also behind the trip."We look forward to meeting many of the Lebanese living in Qatar, as well as the [growing community] in South Africa," said the patriarch. "We will also meet members of the Lebanese community living in the US."
Sfeir will say mass at Our Lady of the Rosary Church, the first formal Christian place of worship in Qatar, before his anticipated inauguration of a Maronite church in Johannesburg, South Africa. The patriarch will also touch upon politics during the trip, meeting UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in New York, before a meeting with King Juan Carlos of Spain. Maronite Church representatives have indicated that an expected meeting between Sfeir and US President George W. Bush will occur on May 22, though the patriarch has not yet said publicly whether the meeting will take place. Likely to dominate the patriarch's endeavors abroad, the political stalemate featured strongly in a question and answer session held at the airport before his departure, which took place without a "presidential farewell decree" or presidential representative, protocols made impossible by a nearly five-month presidential vacuum. Sfeir, when asked about the matter, said he hoped a presidential representative will "welcome" him back and lamented the fact that the presidential vacuum "has lasted for so long ... this is the first time that [Lebanon] has failed to elect a president when [constitutionally mandated] to do so."
The patriarch, however, again expressed hesitancy regarding the election of a president by a simple majority vote, describing such a move as unconstitutional.
"The constitution requires that two-thirds of the members of Parliament convene for a first round of elections. Should an election by qualified majority fail, a simple-majority election becomes possible ... this can only occur after the first round," Sfeir said. Sfeir then added, in response to a follow-up question, that "this has nothing to do with President Bush or other [world leaders]. This has to do with the Lebanese ... The Lebanese must accept their responsibility toward their country

Twin incidents put FPM in the crosshairs
Grenade found near MP's home
By Anthony Elghossain -Daily Star staff
Monday, May 05, 2008
BEIRUT: Two bomb scares on Saturday, both involving members of the opposition Reform and Change parliamentary bloc, served as a reminder that the security situation in Lebanon remains tenuous amid an unresolved political stalemate. On Saturday, the Internal Security Forces (ISF) found an unexploded grenade near the Biakout residence of Reform and Change MP Nabil Nicholas, marking what a statement released by his press office described as the "second such disturbance" targeting him. Apparently, a similar "act of terrorism against [Nicholas]" occurred in 2007 when the ISF discovered mortar shells some 50 meters from his home.
The statement called on "security forces and judicial authorities to take the appropriate measures required in uncovering the circumstances surrounding" the twin threats to Nicholas's domicile. In an apparent jab at Lebanese Forces boss Samir Geagea, the statement added that uncovering what lies behind these threats is of particular importance "given that certain pro-government partisans have discussed imminent assassination attempts." Geagea recently warned that he and other politicians were on a "hit list." "This attack targets, not only MP Nicholas, but the entire Reform and Change bloc, particularly the Free Patriotic Movement [FPM]," the opposition bloc's statement concluded. In related news, reports indicate that at around 9:00 p.m. on Saturday, a passenger in an unidentified vehicle lobbed a bomb at an FPM tent placed at the opposition sit-in in Downtown Beirut. Although the explosion was heard throughout the surrounding area, no injuries were reported. Preliminary ISF inspections indicated that the bomb was manufactured in the West.
Also on Saturday, residents of Hirsh al-Katil near Sabra reported shooting at around 10:30 p.m., bringing units of the Lebanese Armed Forces into the area, but a security source told The Daily Star that gunfire was unleashed by a group of people celebrating a wedding. Political tensions between the March 14 pro-government coalition and the opposition have involved sporadic violence between partisans and supporters of both camps.
Earlier this year, clashes between pro-government Future Movement backers and supporters of the Amal opposition party sparked fears of sectarian violence.
The recent Zahle killing of Phalange party backers by a supporter of opposition MP Elie Skaff increased tensions in the country, as pro-government factions accused the opposition of helping the perpetrators escape. Although the situation on the ground has cooled markedly since, an upswing in political rhetoric has again exacerbated the general outlook.
Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt is exchanging blows with Hizbullah over his recent accusation that the opposition party has been discretely monitoring Rafik Hariri International Airport and building illicit communication networks throughout Lebanon. In a statement sent to The Daily Star on Friday, Hizbullah described Jumblatt's accusations as "fictitious police stories and nightmares," linking the Druze chieftain's comments to an American-led effort to "silence the resistance" in Lebanon and the region. As the debate rages, marginal security breaches - intentionally political or consequentially so - have come to have greater importance in the Lebanese discourse, but have yet to result in an end to the deadlock

Sfeir departs on multi-continent trip
By Anthony Elghossain -Daily Star staff
Monday, May 05, 2008
BEIRUT: Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir left Beirut on Sunday, beginning a trip that will take him to Qatar, South Africa, the US, and Spain. Speaking at Rafik Hariri International Airport, Sfeir implied that his itinerary was shaped by formal invitations received by the patriarchate from heads of state and private institutions - he will reportedly be honored at Villanova, a Catholic university in the US state of Pennsylvania - but that the expansion of the Maronite Church within the far-flung Lebanese diaspora is also behind the trip. "We look forward to meeting many of the Lebanese living in Qatar, as well as the [growing community] in South Africa," said the patriarch. "We will also meet members of the Lebanese community living in the US." Sfeir will say mass at Our Lady of the Rosary Church, the first formal Christian place of worship in Qatar, before his anticipated inauguration of a Maronite church in Johannesburg, South Africa.
The patriarch will also touch upon politics during the trip, meeting UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in New York, before a meeting with King Juan Carlos of Spain. Maronite Church representatives have indicated that an expected meeting between Sfeir and US President George W. Bush will occur on May 22, though the patriarch has not yet said publicly whether the meeting will take place.
Likely to dominate the patriarch's endeavors abroad, the political stalemate featured strongly in a question and answer session held at the airport before his departure, which took place without a "presidential farewell decree" or presidential representative, protocols made impossible by a nearly five-month presidential vacuum. Sfeir, when asked about the matter, said he hoped a presidential representative will "welcome" him back and lamented the fact that the presidential vacuum "has lasted for so long ... this is the first time that [Lebanon] has failed to elect a president when [constitutionally mandated] to do so."
The patriarch, however, again expressed hesitancy regarding the election of a president by a simple majority vote, describing such a move as unconstitutional.
"The constitution requires that two-thirds of the members of Parliament convene for a first round of elections. Should an election by qualified majority fail, a simple-majority election becomes possible ... this can only occur after the first round," Sfeir said. Sfeir then added, in response to a follow-up question, that "this has nothing to do with President Bush or other [world leaders]. This has to do with the Lebanese ... The Lebanese must accept their responsibility toward their country

Barak hypes Hizbullah threat again
Local daily says Israel has decided to 'liquidate Nasrallah'
Daily Star staff-Monday, May 05, 2008
BEIRUT: Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned on Saturday that Hizbullah has "thousands of missiles" that can reach as far as the Jewish state's illegal nuclear site at the southern town of Dimona. "We have taken several lessons from the latest war and we are ready now more than ever to face the enemy on different fronts," Barak told Israeli daily Yediot Ahronot. According to Barak, Israel must not get involved in any war, or at least try to postpone it while the other party is capable of launching attacks with missiles against Israel.In other developments, a local newspaper quoted well informed sources as saying that Arab intelligence services believe an Israeli decision to assassinate Hizbullah's secretary general, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, has been taken.
"There is an Israeli decision to liquidate Nasrallah," sources told As-Safir newspaper over the weekend. The newspaper added that the sources have passed the information to Hizbullah and urged Nasrallah to reduce his travels and meetings. Israel and its chief ally, the United States, have recently stepped up their rhetoric against Hizbullah and its main backers, Iran and Syria. In its "Country Reports on Terrorism 2007," issued last week, the US State Department said Hizbullah continued to be a threat to Israel. "Hizbullah's efforts to rebuild and re-arm after the previous summer's war [are] evidence that Hizbullah remained a threat to Israel," it said It also quoted Israeli security officials as saying that Hizbullah continued to provide support to select Palestinian groups to augment their capacity to conduct attacks against Israel's occupation forces.
"Throughout the rest of the year, Israeli officials claimed ... that Hizbullah had completely replenished its ranks, possessed even more shorter and medium-range rockets than it had before the 2006 war, had moved arms back into southern Lebanon," the report said. The State Department said that while the Lebanese government has made progress in fighting "terrorism," it still harbored concerns about its ability to do so. "The Lebanese government continued to recognize Hizbullah, a US-designated Foreign Terrorist Organization, as a legitimate 'resistance group' and political party," the report said. The report said Lebanon had not fully implemented provisions of UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1559, which called for respect for the sovereignty and political independence of Lebanon, the end of foreign interference in Lebanon, and the disarming and disbanding of all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias. "While the Lebanese government was committed to fulfilling the provisions of UNSCR 1559, it maintained that implementation of Hizbullah's disarmament should be accomplished through 'national dialogue' rather than force," it added. The also mentioned that although Syria withdrew its military forces from Lebanon in April 2005, "it still maintains a covert intelligence presence."It said Beirut has accused Syria of continuing to support and facilitate arms smuggling to Hizbullah and Palestinian groups

Report: Hezbollah can intercept calls in Lebanon thanks to Iran
By Yoav Stern, Haaretz Correspondent and Haaretz Service
An official Lebanese government report reveals that Iran is setting up an illegal telecommunication network across Lebanon, capable of intercepting all telephone conversations in the country, the Saudi-owned daily al-Sharq al-Awsat reported Sunday. According to the report, Iran has set up this network to aid the Lebanon-based guerilla group Hezbollah. In an interview with al-Sharq al-Awsat, Lebanese Telecommunications Minister Marwan Hamadeh said that the "issue of communications has been under discussion for a long time, but we were waiting for them [Hezbollah] to respond to the security authorities who requested they stop all infringements." Advertisement  According to Hamadeh, the Lebanese cabinet is planning to discuss this Iranian network on Monday, and later bring the issue before the United Nations Security Council as well as the Arab League, al-Awsat reported. In the interview, Hamadeh added that Hezbollah was making efforts to link all the militias in Lebanon, Syria and Iran via a vast telecommunications network. "Their goal is not security resistance. They want to connect between all the Iranian and Syrian militias and they want to eavesdrop on everyone," Hamadeh said. The Iranian communications network has been completed in southern Lebanon, the Lebanon Valley, southern Beirut and several Christian areas in Mount Lebanon. Work is currently underway to complete the infrastructure in the northern Lebanon Valley. According to the government report, the network is capable of tracking 100,000 numbers using a digital format in which each number is five digits long. According to reports, the Hezbollah hardware can hook up to Lebanon's main telephone network

Jumblat Hammers Hizbullah "Before they March in My Funeral … Or that of Saad Hariri"
Naharnet/Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat Accused the Airport Security department of loyalty to Hizbullah, called for banning flights by Iranian jetliners and said the Iranian ambassador should be asked to Leave Lebanon. Jumblat, addressing a press conference at his ancestral palace in Mukhtara, also accused the Hizbullah-controlled Jihad al-Binaa institute of maintaining "a base" overlooking Beirut airport. He said Hizbullah has built its own communications network that also is linked to Syria. He said such practices by Hizbullah were tantamount to declaring its own state. Methods applied to monitor the possible smuggling of weapons through Beirut airport in line with UNSCR 1701 are "worthless as long as commander of the airport security department is penetrated by Hizbullah" Jumblat said.
Jumblat charged that Hizbullah's security chief Wafiq Safa practices "security control over Beirut Airport and he decides whether it is allowed to the Army and police to move.""They can practice abductions and assassinations along the airport road or runway number 17," Jumblat said.
He accused "Syria's gangs" of killing chief of the army's military operations Gen. Francois Hajj. Jumblat said areas off limits to state security are "reservoirs for booby trapped cars." He said the police department's counter-terrorism expert Wissam Eid had been assassinated "following his success in detecting certain communication related to the Hariri assassination."Jumblat said he has decided to disclose such information "before people march in my funeral or that of (Mustaqbal Movement leader) Saad Hariri." He accused Syrian President Bashar Assad's Regime of possible involvement in the Feb. 12 assassination of Hizbullah's Imad Mughniyeh "being a witness to the Hariri assassination" in 2005. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri's Freedom of Movement is "limited," Jumblat said.
He said the March 14 majority alliance accepts the 1960 election law "with some amendments." "We have welcomed the formation of a national unity government, but they don't want a president or a government or parliamentary elections," Jumblat charged. Beirut, 03 May 08, 11:25

Mirza Launches Investigation in Hizbullah Airport Surveillance Case
Naharnet/Prosecutor General Saeed Mirza instructed military examining magistrate Jean Fahed to investigate with all military and security personnel the case of the Hizbullah affiliated camera that had been surveying Beirut airport. Mirza referred to Fahed all documents issued by the military intelligence directorate, the airport security department, Defense Minister Elias Murr and Interior Minister Hassan Saba'a related to the wireless surveillance of Beirut airport's runway no 17 which is exclusively used by executive jets. Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat warned earlier in the day that the surveillance could fall within the frame work of setting the stage for a terrorist attack against an aircraft using the facility. Worth noting that Lebanese politicians usually fly by executive jets are jumblat, Premier Fouad Saniora , Mustaqbal Movement Leader Saad Hariri and Murr. Beirut, 03 May 08, 18:34

U.N. to Seek Speedy Implementation of 1559 after Report Hizbullah is Spying on Airport
Naharnet/The United Nations will reportedly pursue reports that Hizbullah allegedly has been secretly spying on Beirut airport in preparation of a possible attack.
The daily An Nahar, citing diplomatic sources, said Sunday that the U.N. has started contacts to "obtain details" about allegations that Hizbullah has set up surveillance cameras to monitor movement of the airport as well as installation of a private telephone network. It said the move comes ahead of a Security Council meeting to be held next week to discuss the latest 1559 progress report. U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon has handed over the seventh report on the implementation of Security Council Resolution 1559 to the council's current president, South African Ambassador Dumisani Kumalo. Security Council Resolution 1559 calls on foreign troops to leave Lebanon, all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias to disarm, the extension of the government's authority throughout the country and respect of the country's sovereignty and independence. The diplomatic sources said that in light of the latest reports on Hizbullah activities, the U.N. was "now, more than ever" keen on implementing 1559.
Druze leader Walid Jumblat on Saturday showed reporters what he said was an exchange of mail between Lebanese Defense Minister Elias Murr and army intelligence services, about the discovery of surveillance cameras near the airport, which is close to Beirut's southern suburbs – a Hizbullah stronghold.
He accused Hizbullah of putting the cameras there "to monitor the arrival of Lebanese or foreign leaders, to kidnap or assassinate (people) on the airport road."
Jumblatt has repeatedly demanded that Hizbullah surrender its weapons in line with U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which calls for the disbanding and disarming of all Lebanese militias. Hizbullah says it needs to keep its arms to "resist the constant threat" posed by Israel. Last week Hizbullah briefly detained a French politician who was taking pictures of a mosque along the airport road to ensure he was not an Israeli. Beirut, 04 May 08, 08:40

Hizbullah's Arms Stash Growing Bigger, Deadlier
Naharnet/Nearly two years after its war with Israel, Hizbullah's stockpile of arms is getting bigger and stronger than before the conflict, said the Los Angeles Times, citing Israeli and Western officials and Hizbullah itself. It said, however, that assessments diverge on the source of Hizbullah's arms. Western and Israeli officials accuse Iran and Syria of smuggling thousands of short-range rockets as well as missiles that can strike deep into Israel and other weaponry into Lebanon in violation of a U.N. arms embargo. Smuggling routes have included a rail line through Turkey, The Los Angeles Times quoted officials as saying. Hizbullah dismisses smuggling allegations as propaganda, as do Iran and Syria, but the Shiite group refuses to say how it gets its arms. Hizbullah fired thousands of rockets into northern Israel in the 2006 summer war. Tension is running high since the killing of top Hizbullah commander Imad Mughniyeh in a February car bomb in Damascus.
Hizbullah has blamed Israel for the attack and vowed retaliation. Hizbullah now has about 27,000 rockets and missiles, more than double its supply before the 2006 war, the report quoted Israeli officials as saying. Acquisitions include Iranian missiles capable of hitting Tel Aviv, they allege.
"We know without a doubt that the international embargo on the transfer of weapons to Hizbullah has been deliberately violated by the governments of Iran and Syria," said Mark Regev, an Israeli government spokesman. The U.S. administration, which has labelled Hizbullah a terrorist group, accuses Iran of providing weapons, training and millions of dollars. Syria also has emerged as an arms supplier, not just a conduit for Iranian arms, Israeli officials told The Los Angeles Times.
"The Syria-Iran-Hizbullah axis is closer than it has been since 2006," an Israeli security official said. "In operational planning, the Syrians know that Hizbullah is part of their defense architecture. Hizbullah is stronger than before the war. They have improved their antitank capabilities, the number and quality of their rockets."
Hizbullah leader sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has declared his group's arsenal has attained or surpassed its prewar level.
Hizbullah leaders have declined to discuss specific numbers. But a source close to Hizbullah agreed with the Israeli assessment of the military buildup, according to the report. The source spoke on condition of anonymity, citing a temporary halt in contacts with Western news media.
"We are ready and we are stronger than two years ago," the source said. "In every battle there are weak and strong points. We have found solutions to all of our weak points from that experience."The source said Iran has no "operational" role, but acknowledged that Tehran and Hizbullah have a strong strategic partnership.
Nasrallah and his deputies say they would not provoke new hostilities.
In his last report issued October 24, 2007, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon warned Lebanese factions against rearming and conducting military training.
Calling on all parties, including Hizbullah, to commit to the disarmament of all militias in Lebanon, he restated his conviction "that the eventual disarmament of Hizbullah in the sense of the completion of its transformation into a solely political party" is of critical importance for the future of a fully sovereign Lebanon.
In a report in October, Ban presented claims provided to the U.N. by Israel and by Prime Minister Fouad Saniora that Hizbullah had beefed up its missile stocks with Syrian and Iranian help, and said those two countries had "special responsibility" not to destabilize Lebanon. Speeches by Nasrallah "seemed to confirm" Israeli allegations about the growth of the arsenal, Ban said. Western and Israeli officials say Iran and Syria play a vital clandestine role in rebuilding Hizbullah's military, according to the report. Because of his ties to Iranian and Syrian security forces, Mughniyeh oversaw the drive, officials told The Los Angeles Times.
The report cited Western security officials as saying that they discovered last year that Iran was procuring telescopic sights for antitank guns and rocket-propelled grenades from an Eastern European country. Communications among Iranian diplomats revealed that the sights were earmarked for Hizbullah, the officials said. They said Iran also allegedly furnished night-vision equipment and binoculars. Beirut, 04 May 08, 11:24

Saniora for 'Sound' Relations with Syria
Naharnet/Premier Fouad Saniora has called for "the best relations with Syria under the Arab umbrella." Saniora made the call in an address at a dinner he hosted Friday for participants in the Arab Economic Forum. He said Lebanon' wants "sound relations with Syria based on mutual respect for the independence and sovereignty of each of the two states." Saniora, addressing Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa who was invited to the banquet, said: "We are determined on working towards ending this (Lebanese-Syrian) problem by speeding up the election of a president." The Majority Premier also said sit-ins launched by the Hizbullah-led opposition since Dec. 1, 2006, should be "eliminated, constitutional institutions should be reactivated and the economy should receive a boost."
Beirut, 03 May 08, 13:23

Cloak and stagger
After overestimating the Iraq threat, U.S. intelligence agencies are now dangerously underestimating Syria and Iran.
By Leonard S. Spector and Avner Cohen
May 4, 2008
Last month's unclassified congressional briefing on Syria's clandestine nuclear reactor, which was destroyed by Israel on Sept. 6, 2007, was yet another reminder of the challenges confronting the U.S. intelligence community. Still smarting from its gross overestimation of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction, the community bent over backward to avoid overstating its case against Syria -- and in doing so, it stumbled badly.
In the Syrian case (as with the release last year of part of the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuclear program) the intelligence community was unnecessarily cautious, and thereby underestimated the threats posed by Syria and Iran. Its efforts to improve precision have only created new confusion and uncertainty.
The key problem has been the intelligence community's astonishing awkwardness in making clear what's a fact and what's an inference. In the case of Iraq, there were few facts on which to build a convincing case that Saddam Hussein was arming himself with weapons of mass destruction. But Hussein's past pursuit of them, coupled with the anxieties unleashed by 9/11, led U.S. intelligence analysts and many policymakers to infer the worst and leap to conclusions unsupported by the facts. The intelligence community has now jumped to the opposite extreme with respect to Iran's and Syria's nuclear ambitions, where there are more than a few facts. Yet it has virtually refused to draw any conclusions, no matter how obvious, about the two countries' nuclear programs. The effect has been to seriously understate the dangers Iran and Syria pose and to distort the policy options available to the U.S. to manage them.
When the unclassified summary of the NIE on Iran's nuclear program was released Dec. 3, many observers were shocked by its most prominent "key finding" -- that the intelligence community believed with "high confidence" that Iran had halted its "nuclear weapon program" in late 2003. A footnote defined "nuclear weapon program" as Iran's efforts to design a nuclear weapon and to enrich uranium in secret. That definition is extremely narrow because most proliferation experts view designing the bomb as relatively easy compared with producing the necessary fissile materials for its core and developing a delivery system.
As a result, the summary paid scant attention to those two nuclear-weapon-related -- and extremely dangerous -- activities in Iran. In fact, the summary doesn't even mention the missiles, and Iran's uranium enrichment activities, the focal point of U.S. and U.N. Security Council diplomacy and pressure, are described in the blandest of terms.
Why? Based on comments at a recent roundtable of U.S. officials and outside proliferation expertsthat we co-chaired, those responsible for the NIE on Iran knew that the heads of the 16 U.S. intelligence agencies had agreed that its key findings would not be declassified. But the White House, fearful that the findings might leak to the media without any official explanation of their significance, overruled the agencies.
By the time the White House decided to release an unclassified summary, the classified version had been produced and was about to be handed over to the congressional intelligence committees. That created a problem. Even though the estimate's "key findings" were originally intended to be understood in the context of the whole classified report, the intelligence community and the White House felt that they needed to repeat them almost verbatim in the unclassified summary. They worried that any rephrasing of the findings would open them up to accusations of playing politics with the estimate.
That still leaves the question of why the intelligence community spotlighted the finding on Iran's nuclear weapons program. We know that important new evidence on Iran's nuclear activities in 2003 had been obtained and that it had required changing a 2005 estimate that the country was pursuing a nuclear weapon. In highlighting the new data, the authors of the 2007 unclassified summary unfortunately left out the context of the previous estimate -- that a rogue Iran remained well on course to developing a nuclear capability.
Ever since Dec. 3, the intelligence community has been trying to restore context to its key finding. On Feb. 27, Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell said the release of the unclassified version was rushed and that it was "an error of judgment on my part." Days later, Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt. Gen. Michael D. Maples said that "although Iran claims its program is focused on producing commercial electric power, [we assess] with high confidence Iran remains determined to develop nuclear weapons." Then in March, CIA chief Michael Hayden, asked on NBC's "Meet the Press" whether he thought Iran was trying to develop a nuclear weapon, replied "Yes," adding this was not based on "court-of-law stuff. ... This is Mike Hayden looking at the body of evidence."
These statements were a move in the right direction, but the CIA's linguistic fumbling during last month's congressional briefing on Syria's reactor indicates that the snafu over the Iran estimate is not a one-time blunder.
After going to considerable lengths to show that Syria's reactor was built with North Korea's help, that it was modeled on the reactor that the North Koreans used to produce plutonium for their nuclear weapons and that it had been carefully disguised by the Syrians to avoid detection, senior intelligence officials declared they had only "low confidence" that Syria has a nuclear weapons program.
The justification for this bizarre conclusion? Although it has "a rich level of information" about the destroyed reactor and North Korea's involvement in building it, the intelligence community said it has no specific information on Syrian facilities for the manufacture of fuel for the reactor or for processing the fuel after it is irradiated to extract plutonium. Nor has it any information showing that Syria is working on a design for a nuclear warhead.
While well-intentioned, the intelligence community's efforts at clarity have now twice gone astray. If it wants to right the balance between facts and inference, a starting point might be to stop redefining commonly used phrases -- such as "nuclear weapon program" -- in order to give them new, counterintuitive meanings that obscure a more simple and dangerous reality.
When the intelligence community has real evidence, it should not be afraid to draw the obvious inference and call a spade a spade.
***Leonard S. Spector directs the Washington office of the Monterey Institute's James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. Avner Cohen is a senior fellow at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington and the author of "Israel and the Bomb."

In Lebanon, Hezbollah arms stockpile bigger, deadlier
Mahmoud Zayat
By Sebastian Rotella, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
May 4, 2008
TEL AVIV -- Almost two years after its war with Israel, Hezbollah has rearmed and is stronger than before the conflict, according to Israeli and Western officials and the Lebanon-based Shiite Muslim group itself.
But assessments diverge on the source of Hezbollah's arms. Western and Israeli officials accuse Iran and Syria of smuggling thousands of short-range rockets as well as missiles that can strike deep into Israel and other weaponry into Lebanon in violation of a U.N. arms embargo. Smuggling routes have included a rail line through Turkey, the officials say.
Hezbollah dismisses smuggling allegations as propaganda, as do Iran and Syria, but the group refuses to say how it gets its weapons.
In the 2006 war, Hezbollah fired thousands of rockets into northern Israel. Most were inaccurate, short-range models, but the attacks killed at least 39 civilians and had a profound psychological effect on Israelis.
About 1,000 people were killed in Lebanon during the 34-day war.
Tensions have risen again. In February, a car bomb in Damascus, the Syrian capital, killed Imad Mughniyah, a Hezbollah chief wanted by U.S., European and Argentine authorities in connection with terrorist attacks that killed hundreds of people in the 1980s and '90s. Hezbollah blamed Israel and promised retaliation.
Israel has not confirmed or denied that it was involved in Mughniyah's death. But it has beefed up defenses and conducted a rare nationwide defense drill in April. Tough talk from both sides continues.
Hezbollah now has about 27,000 rockets and missiles, more than double its supply before the 2006 war, Israeli officials say. Acquisitions include Iranian missiles capable of hitting Tel Aviv, they allege.
"We know without a doubt that the international embargo on the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah has been deliberately violated by the governments of Iran and Syria," said Mark Regev, an Israeli government spokesman.
The U.S. government, which has designated Hezbollah a terrorist group, accuses Iran of providing arms, training and millions of dollars. Syria also has emerged as an arms supplier, not just a conduit for Iranian arms, Israeli officials say.
"The Syria-Iran-Hezbollah axis is closer than it has been since 2006," an Israeli security official said in an interview. "In operational planning, the Syrians know that Hezbollah is part of their defense architecture. Hezbollah is stronger than before the war. They have improved their antitank capabilities, the number and quality of their rockets."
Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah has asserted that the militia's arsenal has attained or surpassed its prewar level. He has said that his weapons can hit "any area in occupied Palestine."
Hezbollah leaders have declined to discuss specific numbers. But a source close to Hezbollah agreed with the Israeli assessment of the military buildup. The source spoke on condition of anonymity, citing a temporary halt in contacts with Western news media.
"We are ready and we are stronger than two years ago," the source said. "In every battle there are weak and strong points. We have found solutions to all of our weak points from that experience."
The source said Iran has no "operational" role, but acknowledged that Tehran and the militia have a strong strategic partnership.
Nasrallah and his deputies say they would not provoke new hostilities.
In a report presented in February, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon warned that rearmament of Hezbollah would threaten the "sovereignty, stability and independence of Lebanon." Hezbollah controls large chunks of Lebanese territory, especially in the south.
In a report in October, Ban presented allegations provided to the U.N. by Israel and by Lebanon's prime minister that Hezbollah had beefed up its missile stocks with Syrian and Iranian help, and said those two countries had "special responsibility" not to destabilize Lebanon. Speeches by Nasrallah "seemed to confirm" Israeli allegations about the growth of the arsenal, Ban said.
Western and Israeli officials say Iran and Syria play a vital clandestine role in rebuilding Hezbollah's military. Because of his ties to Iranian and Syrian security forces, Mughniyah oversaw the drive, officials say.
Western security officials say they discovered last year that Iran was procuring telescopic sights for antitank guns and rocket-propelled grenades from an Eastern European country. Communications among Iranian diplomats revealed that the sights were earmarked for Hezbollah, say the officials, who because of the sensitivity of the information declined to be identified. Iran also allegedly furnished night-vision equipment and binoculars, the officials say.
An explosion last May in southeastern Turkey exposed an arms trafficking route operated by Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard, the Western security officials say. When Kurdish separatists blew up the tracks and derailed a train heading from Iran to Syria, police discovered rockets, missiles, guns and ammunition concealed in construction equipment.
Iran denied allegations that the shipment was bound for Hezbollah. Soon afterward, Iran demoted Yahya Rahim Safavi, the commander of the Revolutionary Guard, officials say. In September, Safavi was replaced by his deputy, Mohammed Ali Jafari.
Iran allegedly shifted some Hezbollah-bound arms to aerial smuggling routes to Syria that use civilian and military aircraft, officials say. The Revolutionary Guard also resumed smuggling by rail, bolstering clandestine security teams that accompany shipments and paying bigger bribes to border inspectors and rail employees, officials say.
The Western security officials say Turkey tries to fight the weapons activity. Turkish officials declined to comment, and the latest annual report by Turkey's anti-smuggling directorate does not describe Iranian arms smuggling as a significant problem. When Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak told Turkish journalists that Ankara could do more to crack down on arms traffic to Hezbollah, Tehran called the allegations "false and fictitious."
Israeli officials say Hezbollah's most potent weapons include about 500 Iranian Zilzal guided missiles, with ranges of 77, 136 and 186 miles. In addition, they say Hezbollah has 4,000 to 6,000 Iranian Fajr 3 and Fajr 5 rockets with ranges of 27 and 46 miles, respectively. And they say Syria has provided an estimated 20,000 rockets.
"The Syrians are a huge supplier of their own systems to them," the Israeli security official said. "They are not just passing on Iranian arms shipments anymore."
Patrick Haenni, a senior analyst in Lebanon for the International Crisis Group, said that although he does not have detailed information on Hezbollah's arsenal or its source, the statements by both Hezbollah and Israel "seem rather credible."
"All the signs on the ground show that Hezbollah is in a concerted phase of preparation, and concentrated on its military reactivation," he said. "The acquisition of missiles is part of their change in military strategy to position themselves as a dissuasion force rather than a classic guerrilla resistance."
In June, Lebanese authorities stopped a truck carrying Soviet-made Grad missiles bound for Hezbollah in the Bekaa Valley near Baalbek, U.N. and Lebanese officials said. Lebanese officials said the shipment was being moved within the country, but Western security officials say the weapons had come across the Syrian border. A few days later, the U.N. special envoy to Lebanon, Terje Roed-Larsen, told the Security Council about what he called "alarming and deeply disturbing" evidence of the flow of arms from Syria.
Late last year, Damascus struck a procurement deal with a Russian company to acquire SA-18 air-defense systems, Western security officials say. Unbeknown to the Russians, Syria allegedly plans to transfer the shoulder-fired antiaircraft missiles to Hezbollah, officials say. The deal is done but the weapons have not yet been delivered to Syria, they say.
rotella@latimes.com
Times staff writers Borzou Daragahi in Beirut and Ashraf Khalil in Jerusalem and special correspondent Yesim Borg in Istanbul, Turkey, contributed to this report.

Assessing Nuclear Activity in Syria and Iran
By INSS: Emily Landau Sunday, May 4, 2008
On April 24, US officials briefed lawmakers on Syria’s covert nuclear reactor. They explained their “high confidence” that what was destroyed last September in Syria was in fact a nuclear reactor for the production of plutonium, and that it was built with the long-term and sustained assistance of North Korea. In contrast to this certainty, a central aspect of their estimate regarding Syria’s nuclear plans adopted a vaguer tone: when asked whether the material to be produced by the reactor would be used in a nuclear weapons program, the Intelligence officials accorded this only a “low confidence” level.
Interestingly and rather surprisingly, the officials acknowledged that a low confidence estimate did not concur with what they actually believed to be the case. In fact, on the basis of their overall analysis of the situation, it was their belief that the reactor was intended to produce nuclear weapons. Indeed, they found no other reasonable explanation for the reactor: it was clearly not for producing electricity, and it was ill-suited to be a research reactor. Moreover, Syria had acted suspiciously in other regards, such as rushing to destroy the remains of the reactor after the attack. But due to the lack of “additional clinical evidence of other activities” – most importantly, the absence of a reprocessing facility – they could not accord this assessment the level of confidence that they actually believed to be the case. As one of the Intelligence officials at the briefing tried to explain: “there’s a difference between evidence and an assessment.”
This episode underscores the problematics involved when decisions regarding nuclear proliferation activities are expected to be grounded in clear-cut evidence of a “smoking gun” – namely, in some physical or clinical evidence that proves beyond a doubt the illegal and dangerous nature of the nuclear activity in question.
Generally speaking, smoking guns – although packaged by those who seek them as the epitome of proof based on hard evidence – are actually subject to interpretation, and can prove to be quite elusive. In realty, there are no clear-cut criteria for smoking guns. Short of producing evidence of a nuclear bomb, is any piece of evidence truly iron-clad? If someone is not interested in finding a state guilty of illegal nuclear activity, then with regard to most evidence – again, short of a nuclear bomb – a more benign interpretation can generally be manufactured. In the final analysis, much depends on the ability of the presenter to convince others that the facts exposed do or do not constitute incriminating evidence.
Moreover, the history of the past five and a half years of dealing with Iran’s nuclear activities demonstrates that the ongoing search for a smoking gun can result in the loss of valuable time in confronting a determined proliferator. Throughout 2003 the search was on for a smoking gun in Iran, which was never found. But in late 2007, the US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) concluded that for most of that same year – as well as for close to 20 years before that time – Iran had actually been engaged in an active nuclear weapons program. If in 2003 states had acted upon what they sensed and believed to be the case in light of Iran’s long history of deception in the nuclear realm – rather than focusing on finding a smoking gun – things might have evolved differently.
This leads to another problem with smoking guns: determined proliferators are well aware of the fact that states are looking for this kind of evidence, and they put tremendous efforts into hiding it. Therefore, the difficulties that are encountered in finding a smoking gun should come as no surprise, and the inability to find one due to states’ concealment efforts should be factored into assessments. According to the NIE, Iran stopped one aspect of its nuclear program in the fall of 2003: weaponization. It continued with the other two activities that are essential for nuclear weapons: production of fissile material (uranium enrichment), and development of long-range ballistic missiles. The decision to stop the weaponization program had a double logic for Iran: first, this was the part of its program that could be achieved in the least amount of time, and thus it was the easiest to suspend temporarily while Iran continued to work on the other two prongs. Second, this was the only part of the program that Iran believed it would be hard pressed to account for, if discovered. Uranium enrichment in Iran has been conducted openly for the past several years and Iran steadfastly continues to insist that it is for civilian purposes, and long-range missiles can be explained as intended for conventional warheads. But designs for a nuclear warhead suggest a different narrative that would be more difficult to explain.
All of this leads to the conclusion that connecting the dots of weapons-related nuclear activity should be carried out in the realm of strategic analysis, where hard evidence of so-called smoking guns is but one important component (but not a sine qua non) in an overall, intricate picture. Something is amiss when Intelligence officials have to bend over backwards to explain an estimate that doesn’t concur with what they believe to be the actual nature of a state’s nuclear activity based on their overall analysis and powers of deduction. Moreover, there is the real risk that media articles will pick up the line that there is “low confidence” that nuclear activity is intended for weapons, and forget the broader, more complex message that was presented. The sound bytes that appeared in the media following publication of the NIE – and the damage that they caused to efforts to confront Iran – are a case in point.
Comprehensive and logical assessments with regard to nuclear proliferation obviously need to include as much hard evidence as possible, but in the interest of non-proliferation, they should not be held hostage to the absence of a smoking gun.