LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
May 02/08

Bible Reading of the day.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 28,16-20. The eleven disciples went to Galilee, to the mountain to which Jesus had ordered them. When they saw him, they worshiped, but they doubted. Then Jesus approached and said to them, "All power in heaven and on earth has been given to me. Go, therefore, and make disciples of all nations, baptizing them in the name of the Father, and of the Son, and of the holy Spirit, teaching them to observe all that I have commanded you. And behold, I am with you always, until the end of the age."

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
The pros and cons of a Lebanese dialogue.By Michael Young 01/05/08
Lebanon, Israel and the next Middle East war-By: Matein Khaled 01/05/08
Why Syria Matters to Israel.By: Osama Al Sharif 01/05/08

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for May 01/08
Berri stresses dialogue as only way out of crisis-Daily Star
Gemayel calls for fair electoral law, election of president-Daily Star
Sfeir chides MPs for failing to hold Parliament vote-Daily Star
Analysts offer differing views on squabble over dialogue-Daily Star
MPs meet to discuss prison conditions-Daily Star
German ambassador expresses satisfaction with implementation of Resolution 1701-Daily Star
Is UNIFIL looking the other way?-Daily Star
UN peace envoy says Palestinian cause still priority-Daily Star
Christian parties may realign ahead of 2009 vote-Daily Star
 Lebanon hikes prices of fuel oil, gasoline-Daily Star
Azour hails exchange of $882 million of Eurobonds as sign of stability-Daily Star
Rights group launches campaign to highlight plight of migrant workers-Daily Star
Some Lebanese turn to nightlife to 'escape' ongoing security, economic crises-Daily Star
Sfeir: Presidential Election Concealed by Bad Intentions-Naharnet
Mufti Jouzou Accuses Hizbullah of Armed Invasion, Vows Response if Government Treatment Fails-Naharnet
Hizbullah accuses the majority of rejecting the Berri-Offered Dialogue-Naharnet
Jamaa Islamiya for Electing President on May 13-Naharnet
Aoun: Visiting Syria is Important to Us-Naharnet
Alloush: March 14 MPs Under Pressure to Elect President by Simple Majority-Naharnet
Qandil: Berri Would Meet Hariri, and Syria is in a Better Situation Now-Naharnet
First official of UN-backed tribunal on Lebanese killings starts work.UN News Centre
Army Commander Phones Assad-Naharnet
Berri to Aoun: You Are the Opposition Negotiator in Bilateral Talks-Naharnet
An Internationally-Guaranteed System to Pacify Lebanon-Naharnet
Dialogue Under Gen. Suleiman-Naharnet
One Person Wounded in inter-Baath Clash-Naharnet
Cigarette Smugglers Funnel Money to Hizbullah, Hamas, Qaida-Naharnet
First Official of Hariri Tribunal Starts Work-Naharnet
Berri Awaiting 'Clear Response' from March 14-Naharnet
Geagea: Berri's Dialogue Call Aimed at Wasting Time-Naharnet
Rice Says Hizbullah Part of 'Belt of Extremism'-Naharnet
Berri's Dialogue Call Appears Lost Between Bilateral and Collective Tracks-Naharnet
Hariri: If Berri Doesn't Want to See Me, Let Him Say So-Naharnet
Bush Telephones Saniora, Slams Syria, Hizbullah-Naharnet
U.S. Offers Training of Lebanese Secondary School Teachers-Naharnet
Moussa For Beirut Thursday-Naharnet
Aoun's Bloc for Early Parliamentary Elections-Naharnet
Mount Lebanon Mufti Jouzou Declares: No to Hizbullah in Our Areas-Naharnet
Sfeir Outlines Similarities Between Palestine and Lebanon-Naharnet
Sfeir: Presidential Election Concealed by Bad Intentions.Naharnet
Syria: Trumping enemies-Seattle Post Intelligencer
Israel gets ready to deal-Boston Globe
Lebanon: Protect Domestic Workers From Abuse, Exploitation-Human Rights Watch (press release)
Netanyahu¡¯s Syria Credibility Problem.Prospects for Peace
Syria report delayed due to war risk.Jerusalem Post

Sfeir: Presidential Election Concealed by Bad Intentions
Naharnet/Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir said the presidential election path was paved with bad intentions, stressing that choosing a new head of state was inevitable since dialogue has proved to be unsuccessful. "Some Lebanese seek to achieve personal goals … at Lebanon's expense. It seems that they don't want to elect a president on time," Sfeir told LBC's Bikul Juraa talk show on Tuesday. "MPs should go to Parliament to elect a President," Sfeir stressed. "Responsibility falls on all MPs." Sfeir expressed fear that a parliament session scheduled for May 13 "will see a fate similar to that of previous sessions," adding that he hoped the crisis would be solved peacefully. "They tried dialogue at Parliament and outside (Parliament) in the past and it was fruitless and did not bring anything new," Sfeir said. "I can see no end to the (political) crisis except for the election of a president above all, to be followed by formation of a government and then parliamentary elections," he added. He stressed that the President has "views" about the shape up of a new cabinet and "one should not impose his opinion on him."
Sfeir stressed that Bkirki, the seat of the Maronite church, was not biased and that bishops are united despite differences in opinion. "Bkirki is not against anyone. Sometimes it is with one party and sometimes it is with the other. But it is always working for the welfare of Lebanon," Sfeir told Bikul Juraa. "We try to be on the right track. But some people see right as wrong," he went on to say. Sfeir accused Lebanon's neighbors of having "aspirations" in this tiny country, adding that Lebanon has no control over itself. He attacked Hizbullah, without mentioning it by name, saying having a parallel state is "bizarre." "There should be no two state rule for Lebanon," Sfeir stressed. He said that if the Lebanese cannot run their own country, "then we ought to seek U.N. help.""The situation is deteriorating day after day. There are reports that about one million Lebanese have fled. There is a lot of unemployment," Sfeir said. Beirut, 30 Apr 08, 08:07

Gemayel calls for fair electoral law, election of president
Daily Star staff
Thursday, May 01, 2008
BEIRUT: Head of the Phalange Party and former President Amin Gemayel called for a fair electoral law that secured the proper representation of Christians in Parliament. On the occasion of Labor Day, Gemayel said that one of the main causes of the social and economic crises was the "plot ... which blocked all state institutions, and in particular economic movement." Gemayel said that addressing the economic and social situation in Lebanon would require officials to address the political situation. "We therefore call for the application of the Constitution and the election of a president of the Republic as soon as possible."
"It is nonsense - in Lebanon or outside - to place conditions for the election of a president which should occur within constitutional specifications, not linked to any specific requirements or conditions of the formation of a government," he said.
Gemayel said the presidential elections were the first step to a solution to the political impasse in Lebanon. "How can we look for governmental reform or parliamentary reform as long as the mother institution is disabled?"The former president had met on Monday with former MP Elias Ferzli."
"President Gemayel's overall behavior concerning the recent shootings in Zahle has proven to be wise and responsible," Ferzli said.
The Zahle shootings resulted in the death of Phalange members Nasri Marouni and Salim Assi. The murder was blamed on a supporter of opposition-allied MP Elie Skaff. - The Daily Star

The pros and cons of a Lebanese dialogue
By Michael Young -Daily Star staff
Thursday, May 01, 2008
It was a mixed week for the head of the Democratic Gathering, Walid Jumblatt. His call for an all-party dialogue under the auspices of the speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri, was gently downgraded by the majority to preliminary contacts between Berri and Saad Hariri, "to guarantee a presidential election on May 13." But the detention in the southern suburbs of a French Socialist representative Jumblatt had invited to Beirut was a useful reminder to the comrades on the left that Hizbullah has brashly created a state within a state.
What was Jumblatt's initial rationale for supporting a return to the kind of national dialogue sessions Berri ran in early 2006, before the summer war between Hizbullah and Israel? Here's a guess. The Druze leader probably calculated that since no presidential election was soon likely, it was best to stabilize the situation on the ground through a soothing conversation mechanism. The advantages would be to restate the gains made in the previous sessions while also moving to a discussion of Hizbullah's weapons. With Berri in charge, the speaker would gain some leverage over Hizbullah while also discrediting Michel Aoun, who supposedly remains the opposition's "official" negotiator.
Jumblatt perhaps also saw his initiative as a way of wriggling out of the bothersome offer floated by some opposition members to exchange a presidential election for agreement over the 1960 election law. The majority could be split by a parliamentary election law that fails to satisfy its diverse leaders and groups, and March 14 still has serious problems with the 1960 law. In the public's eye, however, this quid pro quo may have sounded reasonable. So what better way for March 14 to neutralize it than by showing flexibility on a dialogue where little would be conceded?
If that was Jumblatt's calculation, it was defensible. But an all-national dialogue also poses serious problems. Many Christians, especially those in the March 14 coalition, will see it as an abandonment of the parliamentary majority's priority to elect a president. Such a dialogue would mainly reward Berri, even though he is the person most responsible for blocking Parliament and has never challenged Syrian dictates. And as the 2006 dialogue sessions showed, shifting attention to a gathering of major political leaders could undermine the authority of the government - unhelpful at a moment when an increasing number of Lebanese realize that an effective state is the only thing preventing a breakdown in the country.
The question of how an expansive dialogue (if it happens) might affect Hizbullah's weapons is more intriguing. The party's decision to abduct Israeli soldiers in July 2006, which triggered the summer war, was in part an effort by Hizbullah's secretary general, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, to prepare the ground for a discussion in the national dialogue sessions of the party's "defense strategy." Had the operation succeeded, Nasrallah would have been able to turn to the parliamentary majority and argue that Hizbullah's way was the best way, aborting any further talk of disarmament.
Instead, what Lebanon got was a month of carnage. Hizbullah's defense strategy was shown to be a recipe for mass destruction, so that today the Shiite community is, understandably, the most fearful whenever Nasrallah's mentions war. That, along with the fact that Hizbullah's capacity to intimidate its Lebanese opponents has evaporated in the past year, could make it a good time to raise the weapons issue. But would Hizbullah agree to go along with this? Nothing is less certain, which is why Jumblatt's offer of a dialogue may also have been a ploy to push the onus of rejecting compromise onto Nasrallah's shoulders.
That doesn't change the fact that with or without a dialogue, a presidential election remains unlikely, unless Syria has decided to cut Lebanon some slack. Reports in Qatar's daily Al-Watan suggest an imminent regional breakthrough is in the cards, but until now nothing yet proves this. The harsh reality is that Lebanon appears to be doing fine without a Maronite head of state, even if no one cares to admit it. When the followers of Michel Aoun next declare that they are best equipped to defend Christian interests, they might want to answer how hindering the election of a president - a president no one seems particularly to miss - proves this.
Making matters doubly pernicious, undue haste on an election by the majority, while it may bring a Maronite to office, could be disastrous for Lebanon in general. The country is not ready to enter into a period of prolonged vacuum that an election would provoke if Syria opposes it. How so? Let's assume the best-case (and highly unlikely) scenario in which March 14 and Michel Murr elect a president by a vote of a simple majority of parliamentarians, where would that lead? The government would be in a state of resignation, with constitutionally limited powers; the new president would face major impediments in forming a government, and therefore would be a president only in name; and if Suleiman is the anointed one, the army would find itself without its top commander.
Is electing a president now worth all that? Unfortunately not, which is why Aoun's refusal to participate in an election has been so thoroughly destructive. The general thought he could ride a wave of Christian anger at the absence of a president right into the Baabda palace. As usual, his calculations were wrong. Thanks to him, the Christians are silent, their main political post is empty, and any effort to alter the status quo might destabilize Lebanon in a way no one desires. So, unless something is happening behind the scenes that we are not seeing, brace yourselves for more empty promises of an election in the coming months.
***Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR.

Analysts offer differing views on squabble over dialogue
Sources close to berri say March 14 not interested in talks
By Hussein Abdallah -Daily Star staff
Thursday, May 01, 2008
BEIRUT: After chances of a breakthrough seemed more likely following Progressive Socialist leader Walid Jumblatt's positive response to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri's call for holding roundtable talks between the country's rival leaders, Berri's dialogue initiative has surprisingly remained on hold due to differences between the speaker and the ruling coalition over the style of the proposed-dialogue.
Berri's recent objection to the holding of national dialogue in the form of bilateral talks with Hariri has apparently slowed down the pace of the speaker's initiative, throwing the ball back into the ruling coalition's court and demanding a clearer response to the dialogue call.
The ruling alliance, which had repeatedly stressed that electing a new president should trump all other issues, has attached its participation in dialogue to the condition that the proposed dialogue should be immediately followed by the election of a new president on May 13.
Berri, who insisted that dialogue should only take place in the form of roundtable talks, has refused to give the ruling coalition any guarantees, stressing that electing a president on May 13 or even before that date depends on whether the rival parties reach an agreement during the proposed dialogue sessions.
Sources close to Berri told The Daily Star on Wednesday that the speaker was ready to receive Hariri to discuss with him the prospects of dialogue, but not to negotiate a settlement with Hariri on behalf of the entire opposition. The sources said the "fuss" that the ruling coalition has made about the style of dialogue has proved that it was uninterested in holding dialogue. "If they are serious about dialogue, they should not reject roundtable talks," they said.
The proposed dialogue is supposed to discuss two items; the formation of a national unity government and the drafting of a new electoral law for the 2009 parliamentary elections. Berri said earlier that the opposition was ready to drop its demand of forming a unity government in return for the ruling coalition's acceptance to adopt the 1960 electoral law in the next elections. The ruling coalition believes that the 1960 formula is old-fashioned one and needs to be developed and modernized. 
Berri sources told The Daily Star that the March 14 Forces were "embarrassed" by their position on the new electoral law. "Jumblatt is not against a qada-based electoral law, but Hariri and Christian parties within the ruling coalition are not in favor of such law." "The March 14 Christians are afraid that they will be incapable of contesting Free Patriotic Movement leader General Michel Aoun if a qada-based law is adopted," the sources said, adding that Hariri's rejection of the 1960 electoral law was driven by his objection to the way Beirut was divided under the 1960 formula. The 1960 law partitions Beirut into two Sunni-dominated constituencies and one Christian constituency.  "Hariri is afraid his Christian allies will not be able to make it in the Christian constituency, thus resulting in his loosing his exclusive grip over the 18 Beirut seats," the sources said.
However, Hariri said after meeting with Prime Minister Fouad Siniora that the March 14 parliamentary bloc has no objections to adopting an electoral law that is based on the qada constituency. Veteran political analyst Nuhad al-Mashnouq told The Daily Star on Wednesday that "Hariri's words are nothing but the declaration of intent that Berri is looking for.""Hariri's positive attitude toward Berri's dialogue initiative has apparently surprised Berri's allies in the opposition," Mashnouq said. "This is why they shifted the dispute from one over the content of the dialogue to one over the style." "Berri had good intentions, but he was back stabbed by his allies," Mashnouq added, blaming Hizbullah and Aoun for obstructing Berri's efforts. However, political analyst Amal Saad-Ghorayeb told The Daily Star that the March 14 Forces have indirectly rejected Berri's call for dialogue by voicing objections about the style of dialogue.
Ghorayeb said that she was caught up by Hariri's confidence about electing a president on May 13. "This is the first time Hariri sounds that confident about the election. This might mean one of two things; it could simply mean that a settlement between the opposition and the ruling coalition is in the offing, or it could mean that the parliamentary majority will be heading to elect a president by simple majority vote," Ghorayeb said. "Hariri's words have both positive and negative connotations," she added. Meanwhile, looking at the broader picture, a Syrian-Saudi rapprochement over Lebanon does not seem in the offing despite Syrian President Bashar Assad's recent "soft words" about his readiness to visit Saudi Arabia. Mashnouq told The Daily Star that Syria was still not willing to approach Saudi Arabia over Lebanon. "Syria wants to tell everybody that the problem in Lebanon is an intra-Lebanese dispute," he said. "At the same time, Saudi Arabia is not willing to engage Syria. Riyadh does not trust Damascus' intentions in Lebanon," he added.
Meanwhile, Ghorayeb told The Daily Star that a Syrian-Saudi rapprochement was not directly related to ending the ongoing political crisis in Lebanon.
"Assuming that such rapprochement is the key to end the crisis is equal to saying that the opposition is fully controlled by Damascus and the majority is similarly controlled by Riyadh," Ghorayeb said. "In fact, this is not the case because the ruling coalition is more attached to the US administration than to Saudi Arabia and the opposition is not receiving instructions from Syria ... it is simply acting in accordance with its own interests," she added. "As far as the opposition is concerned, at least Hizbullah and Aoun do not receive instructions from Damascus ... I truly believe that the Syrian role is highly exaggerated

Berri stresses dialogue as only way out of crisis
Aoun accuses ruling coalition of rejecting equal 'national participation'
Daily Star staff-Thursday, May 01, 2008
BEIRUT: Prime Minister Fouad Siniora received on Wednesday a phone call from UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon during which the two discussed the latest developments in Lebanon and the region. Siniora stressed during the call the need to fully implement UN Security Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 war with Israel, especially in relation to the Israel-occupied Shebaa Farms. The pair also touched on the Special Tribunal probing the 2005 assassination of former Premier Rafik Hariri. Meanwhile, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri said on Wednesday that national dialogue is the only way to end Lebanon's political crisis that has paralyzed the decision-making process for more than two years. Berri, who on Wednesday revived his weekly meetings with MPs, said that he has called for the resumption of national dialogue sessions "to save the country because the crisis can only be solved through dialogue."
"The opposition has given a lot of compromises because we were and still are looking after the country's best interest," said Berri, who heads Amal Movement allied with the opposition. "We are not looking out for our own interest as an opposition."Berri had recently set up a 14-seat roundtable in the Parliament building to try to induce rival political leaders to start talking and end the country's political deadlock. The dialogue will focus on electing consensus candidate head of the Lebanese Armed Forces General Michel Suleiman to the presidential seat, which has been vacant since October 23, a new electoral law and the make-up of new Cabinet among other issues. Hizbullah's parliamentary bloc, the Loyalty to the Resistance, said on Wednesday that Berri's call for dialogue is a new opportunity to find a solution to the country's crisis.
"Berri's initiative must not be countered by the majority's conditions and must not be divided, or else it will fail," the bloc said in a statement issued after their weekly meeting. "The only way to be able to hold the presidential elections is by agreeing over the dialogue's agenda," it added. The bloc said the ruling coalition did not react to Berri's initiative in a positive way. "They rejected it because they are influenced by international parties who do not want a solution."
"National consensus must prevail. And the reason behind the crisis is the pro-government party's rejection of the principle of national participation. The solution lies in respecting this principle," the statement said. The opposition has appointed Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun to represent it in bilateral talks with the March 14 Forces, should this kind of meeting be adopted rather than an all-parties dialogue. Following his Change and Reform bloc's meeting, Aoun accused the government of being responsible for the current political stalemate. "In all countries around the world the government is held responsible for the crises," Aoun said in a press conference after the meeting. "Except in Lebanon where the opposition is held responsible."
"The pro-government alliance wants to monopolize all decision-making, and the opposition has to bear the responsibility for all decisions without participating in it," he added. Aoun said the ruling coalition refused to share power with the opposition and added that the opposition will not participate in elections unless it is ensured of its participation in the decision-making process. "Previous experiences with those in power prove that they do not want to reach equal participation," he said. "We cannot have a new authority which is a continuation of the situation we are living." Aoun also called for a "just electoral law" saying that the "pro-government alliance wants an electoral law which allows them to take the majority of Parliament seats." He also voiced hopes that normal ties with Syria would be established soon. "Visiting Syria is important to us and dear to our hearts, and we hope it will happen when circumstances permit," he noted.
Berri telephoned Aoun on Tuesday to inform him that he remains the designated opposition's negotiator in any bilateral talks with the ruling March 14 coalition, As-Safir daily reported Wednesday. But Berri added that if March 14 "wants dialogue that includes all parties, then they are welcome at the dialogue table in Parliament." Media reports published on Wednesday said that Suleiman, telephoned Syrian President Bashar Assad to thank for his support which he expressed during a recent interview with Qatari daily Al-Watan. Assad had told Al-Watan that "our knowledge of Suleiman is very solid, and we think he is a good person on all levels. This is the Syrian point of view. And the Lebanese opposition feels the same."
According to An-Nahar, Assad informed Suleiman that Damascus wishes to see a president elected as soon as possible and will not spare any efforts to see that happening. The daily also said that Suleiman expressed his appreciation to the Syrian Army Command for allowing Lebanese officers to follow up on military command programs in Syria again after the program between the Syrian and Lebanese armies was put on hold after the assassination of Hariri. Suleiman's candidacy to the top post was also supported on Wednesday by Russian Ambassador to Lebanon Sergei Pukin. Pukin underlined the need to respect the Lebanese Constitution and encouraged dialogue between the pro-government and opposition alliances as the basis of comprehensive political consensus.
Pukin reiterated Russia's support for the Arab initiative. "There is also, as we know, the initiative of Speaker Nabih Berri, and yesterday there was the good, stable initiative of Sheikh Saad Hariri regarding negotiation on presidential elections," Pukin said. "We believe that all these initiatives point to the political society's concern for the need to find a way out of the Lebanese impasse," he said. - The Daily Star

Sfeir chides MPs for failing to hold Parliament vote
By Maroun Khoury -Daily Star correspondent
Thursday, May 01, 2008
BKIRKI: Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir lashed out on Thursday at some MPs refusal to perform their duty of electing of a new head of state, adding that this plunged Lebanon "deeper into political crisis." "This is due either to foreign or internal influences," Sfeir said after meeting with a delegation from the Journalists Union in Bkirki. "There is no way to find a solution but through being loyal to Lebanon first, and electing a president in accordance with the Constitution," he added.
Sfeir said that during the first round of the presidential election, the two-thirds quorum should be used, but if in the second round there are two-thirds or a simple-majority of votes available, then the elections could be held. "If two-thirds of votes are not ready, but there is a simple majority, the opposition can say that the Constitution was not respected and could elect a second president, in which case, we would end up with two presidents, which is something the Lebanese and non-Lebanese do not accept," Sfeir said.
He added he had discussed the electoral law and electoral constituencies in Beirut with leader of the parliamentary majority MP Saad Hariri "in vague terms, not in detail," during the latter's visit to the prelate "Bkirki is not taking sides with anyone. We have our own path that we follow, and this path serves the interests of the church and Lebanon," Sfeir said."Without a president, the country cannot be revived, and the government cannot replace the president," he said, adding that all politicians are responsible for the presidential vacuum. "The issue of me potentially visiting Syria has not yet been raised. I haven't been invited and probably will not be," he added. In a rare televised interview on Tuesday, the Maronite Patriarch said the presidential election path was paved with bad intentions, stressing that choosing a new head of state was inevitable since dialogue has proved to be unsuccessful. "Some Lebanese seek to achieve personal goals ... at Lebanon's expense. It seems that they don't want to elect a president on time," Sfeir told LBC's Bikul Juraa talk show.
"MPs should go to Parliament to elect a President," Sfeir stressed. "Responsibility falls on all MPs." Sfeir expressed fear that a Parliament session scheduled for May 13 "will see a fate similar to that of previous sessions," adding that he hoped the crisis would be solved peacefully. "They tried dialogue in Parliament and outside Parliament in the past and it was fruitless and did not bring anything new," Sfeir said. "I can see no end to the [political] crisis except for the election of a president above all, to be followed by formation of a government and then parliamentary elections."  He stressed that the president has "views" about the make up of a new Cabinet and "one should not impose his opinion on him."
Sfeir stressed that Bkirki, the seat of the Maronite church, was not biased and that bishops were united despite differences in opinion. "Bkirki is not against anyone. Sometimes it is with one party and sometimes it is with the other. But it is always working for the welfare of Lebanon," Sfeir said. "We try to be on the right track. But some people see right as wrong," he continued. Sfeir accused Lebanon's neighbors of having "aspirations" in the country, saying Lebanon has no control over itself. He took issue with Hizbullah, without mentioning it by name, saying that the existence of a parallel state was a "bizarre" scenario. "There should be no two-state rule for Lebanon." He said that if the Lebanese cannot run their own country, "then we ought to seek the help of the United Nations.""The situation is deteriorating day after day. There are reports that about one million Lebanese have fled the country and unemployment rates are rising," Sfeir said.

MPs meet to discuss prison conditions
Daily Star staff-Thursday, May 01, 2008
BEIRUT: The Human Rights Parliamentary Committee held a meeting at the Parliament on Wednesday headed by MP Michel Moussa to discuss the state of Lebanese prisons. Moussa, a member of the Liberation and Development bloc, confirmed press reports that MPs representing the parliamentary majority boycotted the meeting. After the meeting, Moussa said the fundamental problem in Lebanese prisons was the overcrowding due to a lack of space. The parliamentary meeting comes after a riot over conditions in the Roumieh prison last Sunday, during which seven warders were taken hostage by inmate rioters. According to security sources, prison administrators and Military Magistrate Jean Fahed are investigating six convicts for inciting unrest, including Youssef Shaaban, who played a central, perhaps premeditated, role in the riots. A security source told The Daily Star on Monday that one of the inmates, Ali Hassan Taleb, was transferred by judicial decree to Amioun prison in North Lebanon for his role in the riots.

Is UNIFIL looking the other way?
By Marc J Sirois -Daily Star staff
Thursday, May 01, 2008
First person by Marc J. Sirois
The radical upgrading of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) that followed the summer 2006 war with Israel has been a helpful development for this country and the region. The expanded force and its broadened mission are nothing like ideal solutions, but they have provided some much-needed breathing space for all concerned.
Nonetheless, UNIFIL has its critics. Some point out that since its original inception in 1978, the force has been little more than a witness to multiple invasions and offensives by the Israeli military that have inflicted tens of thousands of casualties and tens of billions of dollars in economic losses. Others complain that before Israeli occupation forces withdrew from most of the South, UNIFIL failed to stop resistance attacks on its troops.
There is a certain logic to both perspectives, but neither is very realistic given the limitations imposed by the terms of the force's mandate. That has never stopped the critics, though, from basing their arguments on a world of make-believe in which UNIFIL has everything necessary - from international political support to full combat stores - for it to impose its writ on and above every square centimeter of its area of operations south of the Litani River, not to mention the new task of policing Lebanon's coast to prevent arms smuggling to Hizbullah.
The fact of the matter is that like everything else begot by the UN Security Council, UNIFIL is a child of compromise. Its very creation in 1978 had to pass muster with the exigencies of the Cold War then in effect between the Western and Soviet blocs, and its continued existence following Israel's withdrawal from most of the South in 2000 was a de facto acknowledgment of the fact that because the Security Council had erroneously certified the pullout as "complete," some amount of low-level fighting along the "Blue Line" was inevitable. The Israelis remained in the Shebaa Farms, for instance, and the Blue Line summarily handed a series of strips of Lebanese land to the Jewish state. These factors and Israel's continuing detention of Lebanese captives constituted formidable drivers of additional conflict.
Nonetheless, the Security Council sought publicly to maintain the fiction that the accomplishment of UNIFIL's mission (it is officially, after all, an "interim" force) was at hand. It did this by restricting its extensions of the peacekeepers' mandate to six-month periods. The effect of this was the opposite of what any right-thinking person could have wanted because it meant that twice a year, almost like clockwork, some kind of skirmish would take place near the Blue Line. If the council were somehow willing to keep convincing itself that conditions were such that the possibility of disbanding UNIFIL had to be considered every six months, other actors were not - and they were not taking any chances. Both the permanent members - America, Britain, China, France and Russia - and their rotating partners were therefore reminded on a regular basis that for all its imperfections, the peacekeeping force was a necessary (if insufficient) component to any policy aimed at maintaining a semblance of stability.
The war in 2006 demonstrated, however, that whatever its ability to prevent some incidents from escalating, some will remain outside UNIFIL's ability to control: If and when an Israeli prime minister finds himself in political hot water at home and a pretext offers itself, he will go to war against an Arab country for no good reason. Even the beefed-up version of UNIFIL produced by Security Council 1701, which ended the 2006 hostilities, lacks anything like the military punch and diplomatic backing it would need to stop an invasion or even an air campaign. Much as Israel's behavior might approximate that of Serbia during the late Slobodan Milosevic's reign, no resolution allowing member states to discharge their responsibilities under the UN Charter - i.e. to act in concert to protect international peace and security - will escape an American veto. So while there is no longer any of the doubt about mandate extensions that formerly fueled regular incidents, the potential for another trigger is ever-present, and unless and until UNIFIL has more moxie, the Israelis will continue to regard it as a speed bump.
On the other hand, since the international community is habitually prevented from treating Israel like any other outlaw country, it has (understandably) not been very enthusiastic about going out of its way to confront all the enemies the Jewish state has made for itself. This is especially so since the Israelis have a long history of intimidating, endangering, and even assassinating UN peacekeepers and diplomats. Shortly after the German Navy took command of UNIFIL's maritime component in the aftermath of the 2006 war, for instance, the Israeli Air Force made a point of harassing its ships in international waters. Given the historical whammy provided by the Holocaust, the Germans were in the kind of position whose mere possibility had been a big part of the decision to restrict their participation to naval activities rather than having their troops on the group alongside the French, the Italians and the Spaniards. These, too, have been subjected to regular bullying, including one incident in which French air-defense personnel were minutes away from being authorized to open fire on Israeli fighter-bombers performing mock air raids over them.
Of late, the Israelis have issued all sorts of complaints about UNIFIL, alleging, among other things, that both the naval and ground forces have not been sufficiently aggressive in seeking out arms smugglers. The latest charge goes one better, accusing the peacekeepers of "covering up" up Hizbullah's activities in the South.
UNIFIL has reacted with amazing equanimity. It has denied the Israeli claims but evinced almost none of the indignation that its commanders must rightly feel. The UN personnel serving in and around Lebanon do so at considerable risk to their physical safety, and more than 200 of them have been killed since 1978 - frequently because of Israeli action. They also serve under the terms of a mandate that entrusts direct responsibility for security in South Lebanon to the Lebanese Armed Forces. In addition, they face the ever-present threat of coming under attack by the same militants who have targeted them, sometimes with deadly effect, on at least three separate occasions since 2006. Whatever 1701 and other resolutions say, the best defense UNIFIL has against third-party attacks is its relationship with the people of South Lebanon - and Hizbullah is an organic part of them.
Is the resistance still bringing arms into or near the South? Almost certainly: Its leaders would be fools not to prepare for contingencies, especially when Israeli behavior makes future conflict such a strong possibility. But does that mean UNIFIL is looking the other way? Of course not, but nor is it reasonable to expect that the force will go out of its way - and outside its mandate - to interrupt a natural reaction in the face of persistent Israeli threats.
Why should a peacekeeping force disobey its civilian masters in order to confront an organization that helps protect it - and on behalf of another that disdains it? If anything, UNIFIL needs the authority to get tougher with the clear violations of 1701 committed by Israeli forces each and every day, not with the furtive efforts of Hizbullah to make sure that if and when the Israelis come, they will regret it. Again.
***Marc J. Sirois is the managing editor of The Daily Star. His e-mail address is marc.sirois@dailystar.com.lb

Christian parties may realign ahead of 2009 vote
Murr's rift with aoun could usher in power shift in upcoming parliamentary elections
By Inter Press Service
Thursday, May 01, 2008
Mona Alami-Inter Press Service
BEIRUT: The ongoing political crisis gripping Lebanon has chipped away at what has been viewed by most since the 2005 parliamentary elections as an unlikely alignment of two political heavyweights. The recent falling out between Michel Aoun, head of the Christian Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) and Michel Murr, the Greek Orthodox former vice Prime Minister, heralds a change that will undoubtedly affect the 2009 electoral landscape in the predominantly Christian region of the Metn. Inexplicable alliances have long been a tradition of Lebanese politics, defined by short-sighted tactical partnerships rooted in the intense rivalry of opposing parties, communities and political families. Such alliances have played a key role in the struggle for power among the various Christian factions.
The Christian Phalange Party and the Lebanese Forces - led by former President Amine Gemayel and Samir Geagea respectively - joined forces in the 2005 elections with the largely Sunni Future Movement (headed by Saad Hariri, son of slain former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri) and the Progressive Socialist Party headed by Druze leader Walid Jumblatt. To strengthen their position at the ballot box, these four parties, along with other smaller factions, joined forces with two political heavyweights, the predominantly Shiite groups Hizbullah (headed by Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah) and Amal (headed by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri). The coalition, known as the Quadripartite alliance, ran on the same electoral list during the 2005 vote, and triumphed at the polls. The alliance later unravelled.
What now remains of the electoral coalition is a loose alliance diverse parties known as the March 14 Movement. The March 14 alliance currently holds a majority in Parliament, with 67 out 128 seats.
After resigning from the government in November of 2006, Hizbullah and Amal joined the opposition, which includes the FPM. Since the ministers' resignation, the two sides have failed to reach a compromise on the balance of power in government. The power struggle intensified in November of 2007, when President Emile Lahoud stepped down at the end of his term. The presidential seat, traditionally occupied by a Maronite Christian, has remained empty since then.
In fact, the postponement of presidential elections 19 times thus far has incited Murr to warn Christian MPs who abstained from voting that they might not be re-elected. "Christians should not be lied to; under the false pretence of defending the rights of their community, presidential elections are being blocked," he said.
"Murr believes presidential elections should take place as soon as possible, while the FPM links elections to a basket of measures, such as agreement on the future cabinet composition and the replacement of the inequitable 2001 parliamentary law," said Armenian MP Hagop Pakradounian.
So, what does the growing rift between Murr and Aoun over the appointment of a president mean for the 2009 elections? The battle for power in the Metn pits the Phalange party and LF against the FPM, which is joined by a few independents, including Murr. The impact of Murr's defection from the opposition can be measured by his political weight in the area, which affects the outcome of eight parliamentary seats: four Maronite positions, two Greek Orthodox, one Catholic and one Armenian.
Research shows that participation of voters has been customarily low in the area, as is the case with the rest of the country. According to statistician Kamal Feghali, 51.2 percent of registered voters participated in the 2005 elections, in which Murr gained 20,000 votes. In the 2007 by-elections (prompted by the assassination of Phalange MP Pierre Gemayel), 47.2 percent of voters participated, with 15,600 votes for Murr.
"There are currently four independent members of Parliament, of which three are allied with the FPM - Pakradounian, Selim Salhab and Ghassan Moukheiber - while the fourth is Michel Murr. Four other seats are occupied by FPM deputies," explained Alain Aoun from the opposition FPM.
According to Alain Aoun, Murr's new position will be restricted to the Metn and will not affect national elections. "It is too early to measure the exact repercussions of this new realignment on the political landscape. The disagreement between Mr. Murr and the FPM might dissipate before the 2009 elections, as long as the political discourse remains toned down," he pointed out, adding that the political context in 2009 will ultimately define the outcome of the next parliamentary elections. Another factor that could disrupt the balance of power in the Metn is the Armenian vote. "Armenian voters represent some 12,000 votes in the Metn, of which our party, Tashnag, traditionally garners 80 percent," explained Pakradounian.
"Murr's recent change of heart does guarantee his realignment with the majority," said Pakradounian. "I think his main objective is to exert enough pressure to resolve the deadlock and accelerate presidential elections. My belief is that he is still trying to find a common denominator between the opposition and majority.
"We maintain excellent relations with both Gen. Aoun and President Murr, who are our allies, and their disagreement may be short-lived," he added.
While Tashnag's alliance with Michel Murr is more than 44 years old, Pakradounian said that General Aoun has also frequently proven his loyalty to the Armenian party by refusing to participate in the cabinet in the absence of the Tashnag

Army Commander Phones Assad
Naharnet/Lebanese Army Commander Gen. Michel Suleiman has spoken to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad by telephone to thank him for his supportive stance, local media said Wednesday. Assad, in an interview with Qatar's Al Watan newspaper last week, praised Suleiman, describing him as a "good" person."This is Syria's point of view (regarding Suleiman). It is also the (Lebanese) opposition's point of view," Assad said. Suleiman also thanked Assad for going back on his decision to receive Lebanese army officers for military training. Syria stopped receiving Lebanese military officers for training following the assassination of former Premier Rafik Hariri on Feb. 14, 2005. Suleiman and Assad also discussed "ways of coordination and cooperation" between the two armies.
Beirut, 30 Apr 08, 09:34

Berri to Aoun: You Are the Opposition Negotiator in Bilateral Talks
Naharnet/Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has telephoned Free Patriotic Movement leader Gen. Michel Aoun to inform him that he remains the opposition's negotiator in any bilateral talks with the ruling March 14 coalition, the daily As Safir reported Wednesday. "But if they (March 14 Forces) want dialogue that includes all parties, then they are welcome at the dialogue table in parliament," Berri was quoted as telling Aoun. Berri had recently moved a table with 14 seats around it into parliament building to try to bring rival political leaders to start talking and end a prolonged deadlock. Sources close to Berri ruled out bilateral talks between the speaker and al Mustaqbal leader MP Saad Hariri to discuss dialogue prospects and guarantees for holding presidential elections on May 13.
Beirut, 30 Apr 08, 10:16

One Person Wounded in inter-Baath Clash
Naharnet/Bodyguards of Lebanese Baath Party leader Fayez Shukr fought each other with fire guns, the daily al-Mustaqbla reported Wednesday.
It said one bodyguard, identified as Bassem al-Massri, was wounded in the clash which took place in the vicinity of Shukr's house in Beirut's Bir Hasan neighborhood. Al Mustaqbal said that the fight, which occurred around 10 pm Tuesday, was quickly quelled, it spread to Ras el-Nabaa district where Baath party headquarters is located. Security forces again stepped in and arrested two people involved in firing. Beirut, 30 Apr 08, 12:10

Cigarette Smugglers Funnel Money to Hizbullah, Hamas, Qaida
Naharnet/Cigarette smuggling is generating millions of dollars every year that can be reaching militant groups, including Hizbullah, Hamas and al-Qaida, law enforcement sources said in a report obtained by Fox News. In a single case, they said, $100,000 was sent to Hizbullah. A 15-page congressional report includes intelligence from law enforcement as well as New York State's Department of Taxation and Finance. "This is a very serious homeland security issue, one that has gone unnoticed for far too long," Rep. Peter King, the ranking member of the House Homeland Security Committee who called for the investigation, told Fox News.
"Cigarette smugglers are able to generate millions of dollars in illegal profits with a great deal of this wealth being sent to terrorist groups overseas – groups that would like nothing more than to inflict devastating harm on our country and its citizens," he added.
One of the key issues, according to the report carried by Fox News on its website, is a potential flaw in New York State policy. According to King's office, there is a policy in the state of "forbearance," or refusing to collect on sales of Native American tax-free cigarettes to non-Native Americans.
According to the report, critics of the policy say it has effectively created a safe haven for smugglers. In some cases, the report says, a well-organized operation can buy cigarettes tax-free on New York's Indian reservations and sell them at a great profit in the New York City area, generating up to $300,000 per week with a loss of up to $576 million in tax revenues to New York State.
The report, citing federal and New York state law enforcement sources, said nearly 60 percent of all convenience retail outlets in New York City are now Arab-owned, primarily families of Lebanese, Yemeni, Jordanian and Palestinian descent. While the vast majority of retailers are operating above board, some are not.
The report said that these retailers can funnel their profits from the sale of cigarettes to terrorist groups in the Mideast. It claims this "tobacco and terror" relationship has been found in a handful of recent cases.
"…the infamous 'Lackawanna Seven' reportedly received funding from an individual named Aref Ahmed for their travel from Buffalo to Afghanistan to attend an al-Qaida training camp," the report said, referring to a group of American-born men of Yemeni descent who pleaded guilty to terror training.
"The State is losing hundreds of millions of dollars in tax revenue; and given the current budget shortfall, this would seem to be more than enough reason to put the so-called policy of forbearance out of its misery," King said.
"But this is more than just a matter of lost revenue. It is a matter of national security. Cigarette smuggling in New York State must be brought to an end immediately."
Fox News said that hearings dealing specifically with the report are scheduled this Thursday in Washington before the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Crime, Terrorism and Homeland Security. Beirut, 30 Apr 08, 11:41

First Official of Hariri Tribunal Starts Work
Naharnet/The first official of the U.N.-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon to take up his functions, Registrar Robin Vincent, has begun his duties as the court continues to make progress in its start-up phase, the U.N. said in a statement. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said Vincent will work "closely" with the tribunal's management committee and with the U.N. Secretariat to take the necessary steps to formally establish the court, in line with Security Council resolution 1757 of 2007. "He will initially concentrate his activities on preparing the premises of the Tribunal, coordinating the transition between the International Independent Investigation Commission (IIIC) and the Tribunal, recruiting core staff, and finalizing the Tribunal's budget," the statement said.
The Council asked Ban last year to set up the court after Prime Minister Fouad Saniora informed the 15-member body that all domestic options had been exhausted, due to Lebanon's ongoing political crisis. The international tribunal will try those accused of the Feb. 2005 assassination of former Premier Rafik Hariri and related crimes.  In a report to the Council last month, Ban said the selection of the judges and the prosecutor has also been completed and a draft budget will be submitted soon to the management committee of the Tribunal. Beirut, 30 Apr 08, 11:02

Berri Awaiting 'Clear Response' from March 14
Naharnet/Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri's office said in a statement the speaker was still waiting for a clear response from the ruling March 14 coalition on his call for resumption of 14-party roundtable talks. Sources close to Berri told The Daily Star that the speaker was against holding national dialogue in the form of bilateral meetings with al Mustaqbal leader Saad Hariri and preferred holding all-party talks. Berri's media adviser Ali Hamdan said the speaker was strongly against substituting dialogue with two-sided talks, adding that Berri did not mind meeting Hariri to discuss the prospects of a dialogue. Hamdan stressed that Berri's insistence on roundtable talks was based on "the success of similar talks in 2006." "We tried bilateral talks on earlier occasions and they turned out to be unproductive, whereas the 2006 14-party roundtable talks were a great success," Hamdan told The Daily Star. Beirut, 30 Apr 08, 07:46

Geagea: Berri's Dialogue Call Aimed at Wasting Time
Naharnet/Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea said that Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri's call for dialogue was aimed at wasting time and diverting attention from presidential elections. "March 14 Forces entrusted (MP Saad) Hariri to meet Berri and discuss with him the prospects of dialogue," Geagea told reporters.
Geagea said he was "surprised" that Berri rejected bilateral talks with Hariri and insisted on holding roundtable talks.
"Berri's rejection of bilateral talks proves that the opposition's call for dialogue is only aimed at wasting time and delaying the election of a president," he said.
Beirut, 30 Apr 08, 07:26

Rice Says Hizbullah Part of 'Belt of Extremism'
Naharnet/Palestinian Hamas militants are serving as the "proxy warriors" for an Iran bent on destroying Israel and destabilizing the Middle East, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Tuesday. In a speech to the American Jewish Committee in Washington that underscored growing U.S. concerns about Tehran, Rice mentioned Iran as not just a threat in the Palestinian territories, but also in Lebanon, Iraq and even in Afghanistan.
Israel's Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz said after talks with Rice on Monday that an Iran-led radical front in the Middle East is becoming more powerful and weaknesses in it need to be found. Rice vowed to pursue U.S. efforts to isolate Hamas which she said refused to renounce violence, recognize Israel's right to exist and respect all previous Palestinian agreements with Israel. "But perhaps of deepest concern, the leaders of Hamas are increasingly serving as the proxy warriors of an Iranian regime that is destabilizing the region, seeking a nuclear capability and proclaiming its desire to destroy Israel," Rice told the group's annual meeting.
Rice called for international support for the Palestinian Authority, which she said had "the will to fight terrorism" and "the desire to govern effectively" but did not yet have the means.
She echoed remarks by President George Bush who said Tuesday he was still hopeful of a Middle East peace deal before he left office in January but warned that Hamas could "undermine" the effort. Rice also vowed that Washington would continue to tighten controls on Iran's alleged misuse of the international financial system for terrorism and weapons proliferation. The U.S. Treasury last October slapped sanctions on Iran's elite Quds Force as well as the country's Revolutionary Guards. "We made designations for instance of the Quds Force, we made designations of the Revolutionary Guard," Rice recalled. "You can believe that we're going to continue to make designations." In her speech, Rice spoke of a new "belt of extremism" that ranges from Hamas, to Hizbullah in Lebanon to radicals in Iraq and "radicals even increasingly in places like Afghanistan." It is "supported overwhelmingly by Iran and to a certain extent Syria, but particularly Iran, gives this conflict a regional dimension it has not had before," Rice said.(AFP) Beirut, 30 Apr 08, 05:44

Hariri: If Berri Doesn't Want to See Me, Let Him Say So
Naharnet/MP Saad Hariri said after meeting Prime Minister Fouad Saniora on Tuesday that March 14 favors dialogue with the opposition on condition a president is elected on May 13. "It's the duty of all MPs to go down to Parliament on May 13 and elect consensus candidate Gen. (Michel) Suleiman," Hariri told reporters at the end of the meeting at the Grand Serail which ended at 8:35 p.m. Hariri said he was still awaiting response from Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to his request for a joint meeting to discuss dialogue prospects and guarantees for holding presidential elections on May 13. Hariri said he was told that Berri will respond in the next 48 hours. "However, if he (Berri) doesn't want to see me, let him say so," Hariri said. Beirut, 29 Apr 08, 21:42

Moussa For Beirut Thursday
Naharnet/Arab League chief Amr Moussa is heading back to Beirut on Thursday to meet with key political figures in a fresh bid to find a solution to Lebanon's protracted political crisis. "I will meet with figures from the opposition and the (parliamentary) majority with regards to the implementation of the Arab initiative to reach a compromise in the Lebanese political crisis," Moussa said. Moussa has made several previous visits to the country, which has been mired in political deadlock and without a president since November when former president Emile Lahoud stepped down at the end of his term. "I hope that this election takes place at any moment. The important thing is that Lebanon does not stay without a head of state," Moussa added. While the ruling coalition, backed by the West and most Arab states, and the Hizbullah-led opposition, supported by Syria and Iran, have agreed on the consensus candidate, army chief Gen. Michel Suleiman, the two sides disagree on the make-up of the new cabinet and a law for general elections. Lebanon's parliament speaker and opposition leader Nabih Berri has offered to host a dialogue to address the issues over the formation of a national unity government and a new electoral law for the 2009 legislative elections. When asked about Berri's initiative, Moussa said, "We support dialogue and see it as part of the Arab initiative" to break the Lebanese deadlock." Moussa would address the Arab Economic Forum in Beirut this weekend, but will stay in the country for three days to meet with key figures including Berri, Prime Minister Fouad Saniora, Christian opposition leader Gen. Michel Aoun and the head of the parliamentary majority coalition, Saad Hariri. The Lebanese crisis led several Arab leaders to boycott the Arab summit in Damascus last month over what they described as Syrian meddling in Lebanese politics.(AFP-Naharnet) Beirut, 29 Apr 08, 16:35

An Internationally-Guaranteed System to Pacify Lebanon
Naharnet/Lebanon's leading columnist, MP Ghassan Tueni, on Tuesday called for internationally-guaranteed pacification of Lebanon regarding regional disputes to stabilize the trouble-ridden nation. Tueni's article published by the leading daily an-Nahar criticized factions that reject an internationalized settlement to the ongoing crisis in Lebanon. Such factions rejecting the internationalization of a settlement are in fact bringing in external players to the Lebanese arena, such as Iran and Turkey in addition to approaches made by Syrian President Bashar Assad towards the United States, France and other European powers "as if this is not mere internationalization," Tueni wrote. "Does this mean that we should succumb to internationalization and international trends?" Tueni asked.
"No. The opposite is needed," he answered. Tueni concluded: "What is needed is to pacify Lebanon by an internationally-guaranteed system." He cited Switzerland and unnamed Asian nations as examples.

Dialogue Under Gen. Suleiman
Naharnet/An-Nahar columnist Ali Hamade on Tuesday called for dialogue among the various Lebanese factions under Army Commander Gen. Michel Suleiman being a consensus candidate for president. Noting that Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri's call for dialogue is a mere "trap", Hamade said dialogue should be held under Gen. Suleiman as "rapporteur." The General's election as president should not be linked to the outcome of dialogue, according to Hamade. He also called for adding the topic of Hizbullah weapons to the dialogue agenda. Suleiman's election, according to Hamade, "should be carried out as scheduled on May 13, or even before."After Suleiman's election, he would preside over dialogue at the presidential palace in Baabda "within the framework of a national conference that tackles controversial issues," Hamade added. He concluded: "Dialogue is good, provided the majority doesn't fall in the ploy … let us make room at the dialogue hall for Gen. Suleiman." Beirut, 29 Apr 08, 12:39

Lebanon, Israel and the next Middle East war
BY MATEIN KHALID
30 April 2008
The twilight war in Lebanon since 2005 has transformed the geopolitical calculus of the Middle East. As when the PLO established a Palestinian enclave in West Beirut in the 1970’s, Lebanon’s sectarian fault lines risk civil war, no successor to Lahoud lives in the Presidential palace at Baabda, Beirut’s top politicians and journalists have been assassinated by the subcontractors of theocratic and totalitarian tyrannies.
The failure of the Arab summit in Damascus, Israel’s determination to settle scores with Hezbollah, Saudi Arabia’s schism with Alawite-Baathist Syria and the acceleration of Iran’s nuclear programme suggest that political twilight in Beirut presages the next bloody war in the Middle East. The spiral of miscalculation, escalation, betrayal and punishment, so easily predictable by the mathematical models of Von Neumann’s Game Theory, could trigger the next regional war in a manner reminiscent to Sarajevo 1914.
The flashpoints for a regional war are Lebanon and Syria. Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah vowed “open war” against Israel and Zionist targets all over the world after the alleged Mossad hit on his intelligence ops head Imad Mughniyeh, the mastermind of suicide bombing attacks on US Marines, French Legionnaires, the Amir of Kuwait’s motorcade, Western embassies and Maronite Phalangists patrols.
Israel has responded to Nasrallah’s threats by warning that it will retaliate with mass violence on the Lebanese border across the Blue Line, exactly as in July 2006. The diplomatic and shadow souks of the Middle East also speculate that the IDF will attack Syria, the political sponsor of Hezbollah.
It is ominous that the White House, the Elysee Palace, Downing Street and the Kremlin did not rebuke an Israeli Cabinet Minister who threatened Iran with nuclear destruction. The US Mediterranean fleet patrols off the coast of Lebanon and both Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have advised their citizens to leave Beirut. As in 1967, 1973, 1982, and 2006, the Middle East is sleepwalking into war.
Hezbollah has not raised the stakes against Israel because its missile and rocket arsenals were badly degraded by massive IDF bombardment during the July 2006 war. While Nasrallah boasts that his arsenal is bigger and deadlier than ever, the six fold expansion of UNIFIL after the 2006 ceasefire, tighter US Treasury sanctions against Iran and Syria and the destruction of Lebanese bridges have made a massive rearmament of Hezbollah impossible.
In fact, Nasrallah’s vow of “open war” and exaggerated missile arsenals are an attempt at rhetorical deterrence that only camouflages Hezbollah’s clear military disadvantage to withstand another IDF assault. Hezbollah, like Ehud Olmert, has an existential threat in playing up its missile threat against Israel.
With 13500 Blue Helmets stationed in South Lebanon, with West European NATO troop’s contingents from France, Italy, Spain and Norway, it is impossible for Hezbollah to smuggle and deploy large scale weaponry south of the Litani River. So it is logistically impossible for Hezbollah to hit Galilee with a hail of Katyusha attacks, as in 2006. Hezbollah’s relative impotence to deter Israeli aerial assaults against its command and control infrastructure in Beirut, the Bekaa and the Shia villages of South Lebanon, paradoxically, increase the odds of a regional war.
If Israel is tempted to settle the unfinished business of 2006 with Hezbollah because the Shia militia is vulnerable, Syria and Iran will face a fatal loss of regime legitimacy if they do nothing to prevent the military destruction of their only strategic client in Lebanon.
It is therefore yet another cruel irony of Levantine politics that the existence of an expanded UNIFIL actually increases the risks of a regional war because it prevents Hezbollah from building a credible missile deterrence capability south of the Litani, encourages Israel to launch a June 1967 style preemptive attack on its sworn foes in South Lebanon and Syrian/Iranian intervention to save their Shia militia client from certain military defeat.
Israel’s closest friends in the Bush White House and Sarkozy’s Elysee Palace will not hesitate to give Olmert the green light to attack Hezbollah if it helps resolve Lebanon’s political gridlock and strengthen their pro-Western Sunni, Maronite and Druze clients in the Siniora government. French acquiescence is mission critical because of the sheer number of French “blue helmets” stationed with UNIFIL south of the Litani.
UNIFIL is Israel’s ultimate insurance policy against a reconstituted Hezbollah on its northern border, its human “security fence” and alarm wire to preempt any Shia retaliation in case Israeli and American war planes bomb the Islamic Republic’s clandestine nuclear facilities at Natanz and Bushire.
In a very tangible sense, any Hezbollah attempt to create a second front in Lebanon would be tantamount to an attack against France and the US, who have never forgotten nor forgiven the Shia militia for the truck bombs that massacred the Marines and Legion Estranger troops as they slept in their West Beirut barracks that distant October dawn in 1983.
Israel’s recent security drills and simulated responses to any missile launch or terror attacks from South Lebanon symbolise the hair trigger tension that has now gripped the diplomatic chancelleries and military high commands of the Middle East.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s definant response to international sanctions and threats to annihilate Israel have reawakened old memories of Nasser’s threat “to drive the Jews to the sea” on the eve of the Six Day War and the blockade of the Gulf of Aqaba.
In fact, an Israeli attack on a nuclear Iran is inevitable because a “Persian bomb” would only stimulate nuclear warhead ambitions in the Gulf, Egypt and Jordan.
Meanwhile, the succession to the octogenarian President Mubarak is still resolved and bread riots in Cairo amid soaring inflation could well mean that a future Egyptian regime dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood is all too real a prospect. Regime change in Egypt would be the most traumatic event in Arab - Israeli relations since Sadaat’s troops overran the Bar Lev Line in occupied Sinai in the opening moments of the October 1973 Yom Kippur War. An Israel paranoid about nuclear proliferation in the Arab world has a strategic incentive to attack Iran. The ghosts of Sarajevo haunt us again.
**Matein Khalid is a Dubai-based investment banker and commentator

Why Syria Matters to Israel
Osama Al Sharif, osama@mediaarabia.com
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has returned from his Washington meeting with President George Bush empty-handed and frustrated. His already shaky peace negotiations with Israel have hit a brick wall and, as more often than not, Washington was siding with his opposite side. Meanwhile, his Hamas rivals in Gaza Strip have failed to find takers of their offer of a lengthy truce with Israel. On the eve of the 60th anniversary of Al Nakbah and the creation of Israel, Palestinian losses appear to have been compounded on all fronts.
But the peace game continues elsewhere. All eyes are suddenly glued on Syria, whose president revealed last week that Turkey was mediating to revive abandoned negotiations with Israel. The Israelis confirmed the existence of a Turkish initiative and announced that Washington had not objected to a resumption of talks with Damascus.
But then there was the surprise accusation by the Bush administration that North Korea was helping Syria build a nuclear facility in the eastern desert, which President Bashar Assad said it was a non-nuclear military site. The timing of the release of intelligence material on the alleged reactor, nearly seven months after Israel is believed to have destroyed it in an airstrike last September, has baffled Republicans and Democrats in Washington.
Syria’s reaction to Washington’s accusations has been vociferous. Its ambassador to the US has called for a comprehensive IAEA inspection that would begin in Israel and end in Syria. He reminded the world how the US had lied about Iraq’s WMD program and used false evidence to justify its invasion of that country.
The US revelation could be part of a pressure campaign on North Korea, which is being drawn in lengthy and complicated negotiations to dismantle its nuclear program. But its effect on Syria and the recent burst of peace efforts cannot be downplayed.
The Bush administration has followed a cumbersome, often ambiguous, policy on Syria from the start. Damascus has been accused of supporting terrorist organizations, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, and of allowing suicide bombers to infiltrate its borders with Iraq. It was included in President Bush’s axis of evil states and later blamed for the assassination of Lebanon’s Rafik Hariri and other anti-Syria politicians.
More recently, the Damascus regime was held responsible for derailing attempts to elect a Lebanese president. Syria’s special alliance with Tehran is seen as another proof of its hostile attitude toward Israel, the US and moderate Arab states.
The Syrians have felt the heat of US imposed diplomatic isolation. But their reaction has always been calculated. They cooperated on the porous Syria-Iraq border issue and were even praised by the US military for their positive response. On Lebanon, Damascus insists that it is against interference in the internal affairs of its western neighbor, but has hinted that any deal must take into account the limitations of the international tribunal on the Hariri’s murder.
And on a peace settlement with Israel, Syria has reiterated its long-standing position on a complete land-for-peace deal that involves withdrawal from the Golan and direct negotiations under US auspices based on an earlier understanding reached in 1995 with Yitzhak Rabin.
The renewed interest in reviving the so-called Syrian peace track underlines a strategic decision inside the Israeli political establishment. Unfortunately it could also mean that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has decided to put his negotiations with the PNA on the back burner — indefinitely. The rituals will continue, such as the side meetings and the endless haggling over logistics and others, but an historic deal with the Palestinians is now a low-priority matter.
Unlike the Palestinian side, Syria holds many strong cards such as its support of Hezbollah, its close ties to Tehran and its recent drive to boost its military capabilities, to name a few. As Israel ponders the catastrophic lessons of its 2006 war on Lebanon, it becomes clear that the threat of Hezbollah cannot be contained so long as Syria remains its primary backer.
With the demise of Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, Syria is today the only Arab country that could pose a threat to Israel. Its special alliance with Tehran exacerbates that danger on the long run. Neutralizing the Syrians through a peace treaty will secure Israeli interests even if the price is to give back most of the Golan Heights. But such approach is opposed by right-wing Israeli parties including the Likud. How far can a weak Olmert go with such a deal is questionable. And without direct US involvement, the Syrians would see the peace offering as just another ploy to entrap them.
Damascus is keen on normalizing its relations with Washington, which has spearheaded efforts to isolate it both diplomatically and economically. The Syrians attended the Annapolis meeting last year and renewed their support to the Arab peace initiative in the Damascus summit last month. For them US patronage of any peace negotiations with Israel is an important indicator that they are now off Washington’s hit list.
With talk of war this summer in the region, the Syrians would want to foster their image as peace seekers. On the other hand , they would want to buy time as the Bush administration slips into its final months in office. The Israelis, on the other hand, could use the pretence of a possible resumption of negotiations with Syria to shake off any pressure on them to reach a final settlement with the Palestinians.
America’s Lebanese allies would be disheartened if Israel and Syria get down to business under US sponsorship. With the presidential dilemma unresolved, the future of Lebanon could also be relegated in importance.
And, of course, it could turn out to be a bogus process that leads to nothing. In that case, Israel remains in control of both land and initiative. The Syrians will wait for another day, while holding firm to their strong cards, but the Palestinians will be busy counting their mounting losses.
— Osama Al Sharif is a veteran journalist based in Amman.