LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
June 28/08

Bible Reading of the day.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 8,1-4. When Jesus came down from the mountain, great crowds followed him. And then a leper approached, did him homage, and said, "Lord, if you wish, you can make me clean." He stretched out his hand, touched him, and said, "I will do it. Be made clean." His leprosy was cleansed immediately. Then Jesus said to him, "See that you tell no one, but go show yourself to the priest, and offer the gift that Moses prescribed; that will be proof for them."

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
Dramatic pause-By: Hassan Nafaa-Al-Ahram Weekly 27/06/-8
Maclean's responds to recent decision from the Canadian Human Rights Commission-CNW 27/06/08
'Our friends' in Dubai. Maverik News Network 27/06/08
Three Jordanians charged in plot to bomb church.AFP 27/06/08
Despite Doha, Lebanon's politicians are back to their wicked ways-The Daily Star 27/06/08
Questions and answers on the Syrian-Israeli talks.By David Ignatius 27/06/08

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for June 27/08
Gemayel: Hizbullah Expands Military Capacities from Jezzine to Laqlouq-Naharnet
Ban Disappointed by Lack of Progress in Lebanese Cabinet Formation -Naharnet
New Cabinet to Be Announced Soon after Resolving Dispute with Aoun-Naharnet
Bahia Hariri Likely to Become Education Minister -Naharnet
Siddiq Back in Paris -Naharnet
Man Killed in Quarrel in Aley -Naharnet
Assad-Suleiman Meeting Likely in Paris -Naharnet
National Bloc: Hizbullah's Resistance Agenda is Second Cairo Accord-Naharnet
Bread Crisis Defused-Naharnet
Partial Agreement on Cabinet Line-Up, Controversy Revolves Around Service-Related Portfolios-Naharnet
Gen. Rifi Pledges Tough Performance in Tripoli-Naharnet
Geagea for Factional Rotation of Cabinet Portfolios-Naharnet
MP Kanaan: Designating Saniora Was the First Step to Block the Cabinet-Naharnet
Oil crosses $140 mark for first time ever.AFP
Beirut boosts flour subsidies after bakers hike bread prices-Daily Star
Siniora sounds upbeat note after fresh talks on cabinet formation-Daily Star
Hizbullah, Israel reach deal on prisoner swap - Israeli daily-Daily Star
Fragile calm returns to Tripoli after clashes-AFP
LOG blames continuing impasse on opposition-Daily Star
Union for Lebanon urges president to be unbiased-Daily Star
Zahra lashes out at 'Syrian-trained' Franjieh-Daily Star
Analysts compare Hizbullah's show of strength in Beirut to Hamas' Gaza takeover-Daily Star
Multiple views may prove barrier to final electoral law-Daily Star
US official visits Lebanon to assess needs of Iraqi refugees-Daily Star
Lebanon's food industry examines future steps-Daily Star
Turkey donates $20 million for Sidon hospital-Daily Star
'Widespread torture persists in Lebanon'-Daily Star
Association seeks to preserve biodiversity in Jabal Moussa-Daily Star

Gemayel: Hizbullah Expands Military Capacities from Jezzine to Laqlouq
Naharnet/Phalange Party leader and former President Amin Gemayel accused Hizbullah of expanding its military capabilities into non-Shiite areas – from Jezzine in the south to Laqlouq in Mount Lebanon, raising doubt about the resistance. "There is some sort of military preparation starting from Niha in Jezzine all the way across the entire Western mountain range with military surveillance posts set up from Jezzine to Sannine all the way up to Laqlouq" in Mount Lebanon, Gemayel told Kalam el-Nass talk show late Thursday. He said other military surveillance posts were also obvious across the Eastern mountain range. Gemayel said that the preparations became evident after an incident two weeks ago when hooded gunmen kidnapped a number of youths who were vacationing in Sannine. He said after that incident a "fully equipped encampment with wireless radios was discovered" in the area. Asked whether Hizbullah was behind this move, Gemayel said: "Who else but Hizbullah is capable of carrying out these activities in Jezzine and Sannine?"Gemayel questioned Hizbullah's "resistance" in light of its military expansion. On the issue of peace talks with Israel, Gemayel favored indirect negotiations with the Jewish state and through a mediator "just as it is done with Hizbullah … and Syria.""Why does Hizbullah have the right to hold negotiations through a German mediator on the prisoners' issue, while it is not right for the Lebanese government to negotiate via a mediator on the issue of the Shebaa Farms?" Gemayel wondered. Beirut, 27 Jun 08, 08:21

New Cabinet to Be Announced Soon After Resolving Dispute with Aoun
Naharnet/The new cabinet is likely to be announced within the next day or two after having resolved the dispute with Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun over cabinet seats. The daily An Nahar on Friday said the issue over cabinet portfolios has been settled after Prime Minister-designate Fouad Suleiman agreed to give Aoun a sovereign post – deputy premier.
Aoun's Orange television station said late Thursday that Saniora dispatched his adviser, Mohammad Shattah, to visit the FPM leader "to discuss suggestions concerning the cabinet make-up." Al Akhbar newspaper said the positive change has emerged after President Michel Suleiman and the ruling camp were told that "no way will the opposition approve a cabinet line-up without giving Aoun what he deserves." Meanwhile, the daily As Safir said Aoun will hold a round of talks with his allies in the opposition on Friday, while Saniora is expected to hold similar contacts with leaders from the ruling March 14 coalition in light of a threat by Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea. Geagea on Thursday said that his party "should receive a sovereign portfolio if Aoun gets one."Geagea stressed that Aoun had "no problem with a sovereign portfolio going to the Lebanese Forces."
As Safir said that intensified contacts have been carried out over the past 24 hours between Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and Druze leader Walid Jumblat, with the latter emphasizing the need to accelerate formation of the new government. It also said similar contacts took place between Jumblat, Suleiman and Saniora as well as parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri who is in Saudi Arabia on a private visit. As Safir said the new cabinet formula gives Aoun, in addition to the deputy PM post, the ministries of Justice, Industry, and Social Affairs plus a fourth portfolio currently under discussion.
The daily Al Liwaa said Aoun has Okayed the new proposal under which his parliamentary bloc would be getting five portfolios such as the deputy premier post goes to Issam Abu Jamra. It said the other ministries were Justice, Industry, Social Affairs and Youth and Sports. Al Liwaa said, however, that the Justice portfolio was given to Aoun "on condition he names someone accepted by Saniora and one who would facilitate the work of the international tribunal" to try suspects in the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Beirut, 27 Jun 08, 09:38

Ban Disappointed by Lack of Progress in Lebanese Cabinet Formation
Naharnet/U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon has expressed disappointment over "lack of progress" in the formation of a national unity cabinet in Lebanon, urging the full implementation of the Doha accord which ended the country's protracted political crisis. The "Doha Agreement should be fully implemented. We were encouraged by the election of President (Michel) Suleiman. However, we have been very much disappointed by the lack of progress in forming a national unity government," Ban said in New York Thursday ahead of a visit to northeast Asia. He said he was briefed by U.N. officials, who are in contact with Lebanese leaders, that the cabinet may be formed soon. "I sincerely hope that they will be able to announce the formation of a national unity government," he said. On the Israeli-occupied Shebaa Farms area, Ban said his senior cartographer has already concluded his work in the provisional delineation of the zone, "without any reference to ownership." "This is something where we need flexibility and the political will of all the parties concerned," the U.N. chief told reporters. When asked if the world body was willing to put the farms under its trusteeship until the ownership is decided, Ban said: "First of all, we need to discuss among the parties concerned how we can make progress on the Shebaa Farms, even before we can talk about any further options on this issue." The Shebaa Farms area is a strip of land at the junction of southeast Lebanon, southwest Syria and northern Israel. The Jewish state seized the farms from Syria at the same time as it captured the adjoining Golan Heights in the 1967 Middle East war. Beirut claims the territory with the consent of Damascus. Beirut, 27 Jun 08, 05:21

Bahia Hariri Likely to Become Education Minister
Naharnet/MP Bahia Hariri is likely to become Lebanon's Education Minister in the new cabinet. The daily Al-Balad said Friday that "secret and indirect contacts" are underway regarding giving Bahia Hariri or her son, Nader, a cabinet post. Beirut, 27 Jun 08, 12:18

Siddiq Back in Paris
Naharnet/A key witness in the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri was reportedly back to Paris, according to a French diplomatic source. The source told the Jordanian foreign ministry that Syrian witness Mohammed Zuhair Siddiq, who "vanished" in April, had returned to live in a western suburb of Paris.

He said French authorities are aware of his comeback.
Naharnet/Siddiq has reportedly called a Kuwaiti newspaper to say that he is well but in hiding in Europe for fear for his life, the paper had reported last April. Siddiq had been living in France under house arrest until he disappeared. French authorities confirmed the disappearance and said Siddiq was last seen when he left his house March 13. Beirut, 27 Jun 08, 12:02

Assad-Suleiman Meeting Likely in Paris
Naharnet/A meeting is likely to take place in Paris between Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his Lebanese counterpart Michel Suleiman on the sidelines of the Mediterranean summit in Paris. The daily Al Liwaa, citing French sources, said Friday that French President Nicolas Sarkozy was carrying out "personal" efforts to make this meeting come true. Syrian-Lebanese relations deteriorated sharply after Damascus withdrew its troops from Lebanon in April 2005, ending 29 years of military presence. The move was the result of mounting pressure on Syria by the United States, France, and the Lebanese anti-Damascus camp after the Feb. 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri which has been widely blamed on the Assad regime. Beirut, 27 Jun 08, 11:02

Man Killed in Quarrel in Aley
Naharnet/A Lebanese man was shot and killed in the town of al-Binyeh in the Aley province southeast of Beirut, security sources said Friday.
They identified the victim as Rabih Abu Dargham. The sources said a quarrel between Hashem Wehbeh and Rami Wehbeh and their brother-in-law Abu Dargham developed into a fist fight. That fight prompted the intervention of Walid Jaber who fired gunshots at the crowd. One bullet hit Abu Dargham in the head. He was taken to hospital where he was soon pronounced dead. Beirut, 27 Jun 08, 23:52

'Our friends' in Dubai
http://mavericknewsnetwork.typepad.com/my_weblog/2008/06/our-friends-in.html
27/06/08/Maverik News Network
One of the reasons that international sanctions against Iran have been so ineffective is that the Iranians have managed to circumvent them by anticipating what sanctions the West will try next and taking effective countermeasures ahead of time. For example, recently the West announced sanctions against Melli Bank, Iran's largest bank. But by the time they had been announced and implemented, Iran had withdrawn $75 billion from the European banking system and transferred it back to Iran or to Asian banks. Iran's silent partner in helping it to avoid the sanctions has been Dubai, which is considered an American ally. For example, financial intermediaries in Dubai helped funnel money back to Tehran from Europe. Counterterrorism blog discusses the close relationships between the two countries.
Iran's main conduit in avoiding sanctions has been Dubai in the United Arab Emirates. There are historical reasons for this: since the beginning of the 20th century, Dubai and Iran have enjoyed close trade relations. Also, Dubai welcomed several waves of Iranian immigrants.
Not a week goes by without an Iranian minister or official visiting Dubai.
The 350,000 Iranians of Dubai compose the third largest community after the Indians and the Pakistanis. The large fortunes belong to families of Iranian origin. There are 8,200 Iranian companies today in Dubai compared to 6,500 in 2005.
Dubai has become Iran's back-up base and Iranian companies that do business abroad prefer to be based in the emirate. More than 200 flights each week link Dubai to the main Iranian cities. The port ships merchandise of all kinds to Iran, from cars to electric machinery and food.
The official trade figure between the two countries is $6 billion annually, but the smuggling amounts to an estimated additional $1.2 billion a year. Out of that $1.2 billion figure about $250 million stems from U.S. goods, supposedly banned from entering Iran.
One has to wonder why the United States hasn't figured this out yet, but the Bush administration seems totally clueless when it comes to Dubai. Two years ago, as you may recall, the administration wanted to turn over control of six major American seaports to a company in which the government of Dubai was a major shareholder. At the time it came out that the firm was actively involved in enforcing the Arab boycott, which is illegal in the United States. Eventually Dubai Ports World, the company involved, sold its interest in the ports' operation to an American company.
Dubai and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) of which it is part have consistently worked against America's (and Israel's interests). The UAE has given financial support to the families of 'Palestinian' terrorists. It has denied entry to Israelis seeking to attend international conferences. But it looks after US interests in Iran and, most importantly from an American perspective, has been a significant investor in the United States.
So long as the United States decides that its friendship with Dubai is more important than preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, international sanctions against Iran will continue to be all bark and no bite. Israel, on the other hand, should have no such conflicts of interest.
Cross-posted to Israel Matzav.

MACLEAN'S MAGAZINE
Attention News Editors: Maclean's responds to recent decision from the Canadian Human Rights Commission
TORONTO, June 26 /CNW/ - Maclean's magazine is pleased that the Canadian Human Rights Commission has dismissed the complaint brought against it by the
Canadian Islamic Congress. The decision is in keeping with our long-standing position that the article in question, "The Future Belongs to Islam," an excerpt from Mark Steyn's best-selling book America Alone, was a worthy piece of commentary on important geopolitical issues, entirely within the bounds of normal journalistic practice. Though gratified by the decision, Maclean's continues to assert that no human rights commission, whether at the federal or provincial level, has the mandate or the expertise to monitor, inquire into, or assess the editorial decisions of the nation's media. And we continue to have grave concerns about a system of complaint and adjudication that allows a media outlet to be pursued in multiple jurisdictions on the same complaint, brought by the same complainants, subjecting it to costs of hundreds of thousands of dollars, to say nothing of the inconvenience. We enthusiastically support those parliamentarians who are calling for legislative review of the commissions with regard to speech issues. About Maclean's: Maclean's is Canada's only national weekly current affairs magazine. Maclean's enlightens, engages and entertains 2.8 million readers with strong investigative reporting and exclusive stories from leading journalists in the fields of international affairs, social issues, national politics, business
and culture. Visit www.macleans.ca.
For further information: Marnie Peters, (416) 764-2862,
Marnie.peters@rci.rogers.com

National Bloc: Hizbullah's Resistance Agenda is Second Cairo Accord
Naharnet/The Lebanese National Bloc Party accused Hizbullah of seeking to occupy Lebanon with Syria's blessing, Israel's indifference and the United States preoccupation with its presidential elections. The bloc, after a meeting of its leadership under Chairman Carlos Edde, said "only a thorough national effort" could force Hizbullah to back off. The statement warned that Hizbullah's adherence to the so-called resistance agenda would take Lebanon back to the 1969 ill-fated Cairo ccord.
Beirut, 26 Jun 08, 20:13

Three Jordanians charged in plot to bomb church
By Agence France Presse (AFP)
Friday, June 27, 2008
AMMAN: A military prosecutor has charged three Jordanians with plotting a suicide car bomb attack on a church in Amman in May, a judicial official said on Thursday. Two of the suspects, Majed Qatanani, 22, and Ali Abu Arab, 23, were arrested last month after the security forces foiled the attack and seized a car they had planned to use in the bombing. A third suspect, named as Hamad Sweirki, is on the run, the official said. The three suspects have been charged with "conspiracy to carry out a terrorist attack and possession of explosives," and face up to 15 years in jail if convicted. They had plotted to bomb a church in Amman's eastern district of Marka after initially planning to attack police in protest at the jailing of Islamist suspects. Qatanani "thought of carrying out a car bomb attack against a police battalion near a prison south of Amman after his release from jail in 2007," the official said. "He found that it was impossible because of tight security" and later persuaded Abu Arab and Sweirki to bomb a Roman Catholic Church in Marka instead, the official added. "They took pictures of the church and prepared to bomb it, seeking to punish security forces for arresting and detaining Islamists," the official said. "But the security forces foiled the attack on May 11, seized the car and arrested Qatanani and Abu Arab. Sweirki escaped and is still on the run," he added. - AFP

Despite Doha, Lebanon's politicians are back to their wicked ways
By The Daily Star
Friday, June 27, 2008
When representatives of Lebanon's feuding political parties left for talks in Doha, Qatar, last month in hopes of averting renewed civil war, demonstrators sent them off with signs reading, "If you don't agree, don't come back." So long as they were in the Gulf, many Lebanese were more than pleased: At least they were talking, went the reasoning, and distance made them less capable of destabilizing the country with their lack of common sense and good faith. Eventually they did agree, and they did come back, but now they are up to the same old shenanigans.
One month after striking a deal aimed at defusing tensions, the same irresponsible "leaders" are once again engaged in hollow sloganeering, and some have even managed to add new complications to the slew of old ones over which pro-government and opposition parties disagree. Of all the commitments they made in Doha, the only one they have honored in full has been the election of President Michel Sleiman. The unity government on which they "agreed" has yet to be formed, the new election law they agreed to discuss has become yet another bone of contention, and the inflammatory language they agreed to halt is back with a vengeance. Worst of all, the aforementioned misbehavior has encouraged some of the two camps' respective supporters to feel justified in violating the most important pledge made at Doha - that of eschewing violence for domestic political purposes.
The debacle is so discouraging that some observers have been begging for the Qataris to take up the stick again, but the latter have already done more than should have been asked of them. The Qataris have to know by now, too, that the individuals among whom they mediated are not to be trusted, that they have no sense of their own responsibilities, and that they are too bullheaded to learn from their own mistakes.
Simply put, Lebanon's political class has no vision, no plan, no integrity, and - on the moral level - no guts. They use their respective media mouthpieces to cast aspersions on one another, but none of them has deigned to tell the Lebanese who really matter - the public - where they want to take this country. Perhaps the Qataris can be convinced to invite Lebanon's politicians back for another round, and then lock them up. Failing that, one can only hope that the voters in next year's elections know how to punish the guilty - and that they do so without mercy

Geagea for Factional Rotation of Cabinet Portfolios
Naharnet/Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea spoke of "serious proposals" regarding efforts to form the new cabinet. "There are also proposals that are not useful and other proposals that are not worth considering" Geagea said after a meeting Premier-designate Fouad Saniora. Saniora, according to Geagea, would follow up with President Michel Suleiman the government formation issue to reach the best possible decision as soon as possible.""But we would not accept just any government formation," Geagea noted. "I hope that the president and premier-designate would declare the new government not in a very long time," Geagea said. He welcomed a rotation of portfolios on the various sects, emphasizing that the foreign ministry should not always be held by a Shiite personality and the finance ministry shouldn't always be for the Sunnis. Geagea said he was maintaining contacts with Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun "be they direct or indirect contacts."
Beirut, 26 Jun 08, 19:53

Suleiman Receives Hizbullah Delegation
Naharnet/President Michel Suleiman told a Hizbullah delegation Thursday Israel is the "main beneficiary" from threats targeting Lebanon and called for persisting dialogue among the various Lebanese factions. Suleiman also said political differences should not have "repercussions that reflect negatively on national principles, topped by the national resistance." Suleiman, according to the state-run National News Agency (NNA), emphasized the importance of maintaining dialogue between Lebanese leaders to curb deterioration of the security situation and help the army and security forces in preventing attacks targeting the people.
Suleiman made the remark to a Hizbullah delegation headed by MP Mohammed Raad. Raad said the delegation expressed to Suleiman "our concern regarding delay in forming the new cabinet."He also called for speedy solutions to economic hardships facing the Lebanese people. Beirut, 26 Jun 08, 15:21

Partial Agreement on Cabinet Line-Up, Controversy Revolves Around Service-Related Portfolios
Naharnet/Despite the progress made in the new cabinet line-up with respect to distributing portfolios, two service-related posts, however, continued to spark controversy.News reports said that while it was almost certain that Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun will get the deputy PM cabinet post, controversy still revolved around the service-related posts – telecommunications and public works. Prime Minister-designate Fouad Saniora has suggested that Aoun gets, in addition to the deputy PM post, the public works portfolio. Hizbullah and AMAL Movement, the pillars of the opposition, however, want the telecommunication post instead. Meanwhile, Aoun was not willing to give up a key sovereign portfolio. The daily As Safir on Thursday quoted Saniora sources as expressing optimism over the cabinet formation, saying it is likely to be announced before week's end. It also quoted President Michel Suleiman as telling visitors that in the event the new cabinet was not formed "within two or three days," he would shift to Parliament to hold it to account in order to reassess the content of the Doha agreement. Beirut, 26 Jun 08, 09:15

Bread Crisis Defused
Naharnet/The Ministry of Economy and the Bakeries Association agreed Thursday on a settlement defusing a bread crisis in Lebanon. The Ministry, in a statement, said the price of a standard pack of bread would be 1,500 LL as of Friday, which is the same price that was applied before the crisis broke out earlier in the day. The Bakeries Association Chairman Kazem Ibahim also announced that bread price would return to pre-Crisis standard as of Friday morning.
Beirut, 26 Jun 08, 20:48

Gen. Rifi Pledges Tough Performance in Tripoli
Naharnet/Internal Security Forces commander Gen. Ashraf Rifi pledged that the force would be "decisive" in curbing gunmen in the northern town of Tripoli.
Rifi made the remark to reporters after inspecting ISF units deployed in the contested Tabbaneh and Baal Mohsen districts.
He disclosed that four people have been arrested on charges of attempting to set shops ablaze and ISF officers have prevented the looting and burning of other shops. "We have names of other suspects in burning shops and looting activities. They are wanted and we would apprehend them," Rifi pledged.
He explained that gunmen would be chased and apprehended "even if we have to exchange fire with them."However, Rifi said that there would no house raids to strip people of their private weapons. "This requires a decision by the political leadership," he stressed. Beirut, 26 Jun 08, 20:34

Oil crosses $140 mark for first time ever
By Agence France Presse (AFP)
Friday, June 27, 2008
NEW YORK: Oil prices crossed $140 a barrel for the first time in New York and London Thursday amid a declining dollar and after OPEC warned prices could hit $170 this year. New York's main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for August delivery, shot up $5.50 to trade at $140.05 a barrel.
In London, Brent North Sea crude for August jumped $6.05 to $140.38.
The price of crude oil shot up on the new dollar weakness, which makes the dollar-denominated commodity cheaper for buyers using stronger currencies. The dollar lost ground against the euro a day after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. Analysts at Barclays Capital said interest rates in the US were likely to remain lower than those set by the European central bank for the eurozone, making the euro more attractive to investors than the US currency. The president of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Algerian Energy Minister Chakib Khelil, said oil could hit a record $170 this year owing to a weak US dollar and geopolitical unrest. "I predict probably prices of $150 to $170 this summer," he said Thursday in an interview with France 24. "It will probably fall a bit toward the end of the year." The OPEC chief added that a weak dollar was the main cause of surging oil prices. - AFP

GOVERNMENT OF CANADA ENHANCES SERVICES AT
VISA OFFICE IN BEIRUT, LEBANON
OTTAWA, June 25, 2008 – The Honourable Diane Finley, Minister of Citizenship and Immigration, announced today that the Department is enhancing the services offered by its visa office in Beirut, Lebanon. Effective immediately, permanent resident applicants from Lebanon can choose to be interviewed by immigration officers in Beirut.
“Citizens of Lebanon deserve to have their visa interviews conducted in their own country,” said Minister Finley. “We are upgrading our services at the visa office in Beirut in order to make it easier for people to complete their application process.” Until now, permanent resident applicants were required to travel to Damascus, Syria, for an interview since immigrant applications from Lebanon are processed by the visa office in Damascus. The only exception applied to family class applicants who had the choice of being interviewed in either Beirut or Damascus. In such cases, immigration officers would travel from Damascus to Beirut to conduct the interviews. This new change means that applicants requiring interviews will now have a choice between Beirut, Lebanon and Damascus, Syria.
The Government of Canada is continuously looking at ways to improve services to applicants.
**For more information, contact:
Tim Vail
Press Secretary
Office of the Minister
Citizenship and Immigration Canada
613-954-1064
**Karen Shadd
Media Relations Spokesperson
Communications Branch
Citizenship and Immigration Canada
613-952-1650

Alain Aoun Warns Against Declaring War by Blocking Election Law
By Dalia Nehme-Naharnet
Naharnet/Free Patriotic Movement official Alan Aoun said the key to solving the government formation issue is allowing his group to control either the justice or communications portfolios.
Aoun, in an interview with Naharnet, said a breakthrough in efforts by Premier-designate Fouad Saniora to form the cabinet is "expected any time now."
Discussions at present focus on a proposal that goes along the lines of giving the Hizbullah-led opposition "one sovereign portfolio and other basic portfolios. Opposition factions would agree among themselves on sharing these portfolios," he said. "There is no problem whether we or Speaker Nabih Berri control the sovereign portfolio," Aoun added.
The problem with the majority, according to Aoun, is in differences over other basic portfolios, namely the justice and communications ministries.
He said a compromise proposal under consideration gives the opposition a sovereign portfolio, while the FPM gets either the communications or justice ministries as well the seat of deputy premier in addition to a number of "services ministries, including the public works portfolio."
Aoun reported "major progress" in efforts to form the cabinet after Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri informed Saniora of the latest opposition proposal.
He accused the majority of having "suspicious" motives to insist on maintaining the justice and communications portfolios.
"No one more than us is keen on safeguarding justice," Aoun said.
The opposition, according to Aoun, has an interest in speeding up efforts to form the new cabinet … that is why we are dealing positively with the issue."
Recent acts of violence, according to Aoun, are a reflection of the "exposed security situation and the persisting tension that push towards more deterioration."
He rejected charges by the March 14 majority that the opposition was blocking efforts to form the new cabinet.
The opposition carried out its commitments by electing President Michel Suleiman, calling off the sit-in … the side that is making steps forward is not the side that is blocking," Aoun said. Aoun predicted that if no cabinet is formed "we would certainly observe an attempt to block the election law."
He warned that "blocking the election law would be tantamount to a declaration of war." Beirut, 26 Jun 08, 18:32

Dramatic pause
By: Hassan Nafaa*
Al-Ahram Weekly
While the relief of eased regional tensions is welcome, signs point to an unprecedented upheaval and possible catastrophe ahead, writes Hassan Nafaa*
Recent weeks have brought a series of unexpected and exciting developments that may just form a turning point in the mode of interactions this region has experienced for so long. Suddenly, after sharp and intensifying polarisations that seemed at times to be propelling the region towards an immanent inferno, the blackened skies have begun to clear, the roar of thunder and flashes of lightening have receded, and one can sniff a freshness in the air as though a new dawn were at hand. Since Lebanon has always served as the riverbed in which regional parties have poured their tensions and refuse, it has naturally become a kind of finely tuned meteorological testing station capable of detecting subtle shifts in regional temperatures, shifts in the direction of winds and even seismological vibrations indicative of benign tremors or impending quakes and volcanic eruptions.
It was no coincidence that the dormant Lebanese volcano should awake again within a few months of the American invasion and occupation of Iraq. After the US accomplished its immediate aim of toppling the regime and when it became clear to all that it had come to Iraq to stay and that it was not so much interested in Iraq per se but in Iraq as a staging post for executing its plans for redrawing the regional map to suit its post-11 September global enterprise, other world powers, including those that had previously opposed the American invasion and occupation, soon caved in to Washington's will and ambitions and signalled their readiness to cooperate. No observer of events at the time could escape the conclusion that Washington would soon turn its sights on other regimes and forces hostile to its Middle Eastern policies and that the next phase would naturally require: first, the disarmament of Hizbullah, which could not be accomplished until Syria was ousted from Lebanon; second, giving Israel the go-ahead to destroy Palestinian resistance factions and, if necessary, to eliminate Yasser Arafat; and third and most importantly, slaying the regional serpent, Iran.
So, on the pretext that Syria had failed to deliver on a pledge it made not to press for extending president Emile Lahoud's term in office, France and the US got together to push through UN Security Council Resolution 1559. But the ground had to be prepared in order for that resolution to be put into effect, and that required Syria's departure from Lebanon. The assassination of Rafik Al-Hariri provided the key to a successful drive to that effect. With Syrian withdrawal, the US and France had won the first round in the battle over Lebanon. But it was still too soon to be jubilant; ultimate victory in that battle required the toppling of the Syrian and Iranian regimes and the defeat of Hizbullah.
It quickly became apparent that it would take more than the Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon to disarm Hizbullah and, thereby, to neutralise Lebanon preparatory to the next step. Therefore, it was now time to bring in Israel. However, since Israel was unwilling, at the time, to hand back Shebaa Farms to Lebanon, which would have given the West's allies in Lebanon a major playing card against Hizbullah, and since Israel was still thirsting to avenge itself for its defeat against Hizbullah in 2000, it opted for military escalation. With Syria out of the way inside Lebanon, Israeli strategic planners thought, Hizbullah would be easy prey. So, in July 2006, Israel launched its offensive into Lebanon while the US waged a diplomatic offensive using the spectre of a "Shia crescent" to polarise the region into Sunni versus Shia camps so as to align the former against Hizbullah as a sectarian puppet whose strings were held in Tehran. Although Israel and the US (along with their regional allies) sustained an embarrassing setback in this round, they did not despair. They next turned to diplomatic means to obtain the goals they failed to accomplish on the field of battle. The end of Lahoud's term in office provided just the opening they needed to spark a domestic power struggle. Here, one is forced to admit that Syria and its allies inside Lebanon facilitated the task of the forces propelling tensions in Lebanon to a new brink that, with the government's decision to penetrate the internal communications network of the Lebanese resistance, threatened to plunge the country once again into the morass of civil war.
At this point, events in the region began to take a 180-degree turn, as though a magical hand had decided that it was now time to reshuffle the deck.
First, Qatar with the clear backing of the Arab League called for a meeting of the Lebanese factions in Doha. All leaders responded immediately and the meeting ended with an agreement to elect Michel Suleiman as president, to form a national unity government in which the opposition would be guaranteed a third of the cabinet seats, and to charge parliament with drafting a new electoral law the general outlines of which have already been agreed upon.
Second, on the Syrian question, Turkey announced that it was brokering indirect negotiations between Syria and Israel. It then came to light that earlier rounds had taken place and that the negotiations are making steady progress and may soon evolve into direct talks. More recently, Paris dispatched two high-level envoys to Damascus, clearly meant to reward Syria for the part it played in the success of the Doha agreement. Also, President Bashar Al-Assad responded to an official invitation from Paris to participate in the Union for the Mediterranean summit and to attend celebrations commemorating the French revolution. The signals were clear: the French-Syria rupture had come to an end. Now, moreover, there are rumours circulating in the press that French President Nicolas Sarkozy is pushing for a direct meeting between Al-Assad and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on the fringes of the Mediterranean summit and 14 July festivities.
Third, meanwhile in Palestine President Mahmoud Abbas announced that he was prepared to mend fences with Hamas on the basis of the Yemeni initiative adopted by the Arab League. Then, just as suddenly, Egypt's efforts to broker a truce between Israel and the Palestinian resistance factions emerged from their long dark tunnel in the form of a phased agreement that will permit for the halting of targeted assassinations on the part of Israel, the halting of missile fire from Gaza, the opening of checkpoints and the lifting of the Israeli embargo. The first stages of this agreement have already gone into effect and may well pave the way for a prisoner exchange in accordance with which the Israeli prisoner of war Gilad Shalit will be handed over in return for a reasonable number of Palestinian prisoners in Israel.
Fourth, even the situation with Iran appears to be cooling down. EU Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana headed off to Tehran carrying with him a new and more tempting package of incentives. The package offers to help Iran obtain its nuclear energy needs, to lift UN imposed sanctions, to end Iran's international isolation and, indeed, to acknowledge a major regional role for it, all in exchange for Tehran's agreement to temporarily halt its uranium enrichment activities until an agreement can be reached over the place and means for enriching the uranium Iran requires to continue its nuclear programme for peaceful purposes. Iran has yet to respond officially to the offer. It is unlikely to refuse it outright, although it is doubtful that it will accept it immediately as it is.
This breathtaking rush of developments suggests a major change is afoot and that political givens in the region are not the same as they were only a few weeks ago. What is the nature of this change and what are the new givens? I suggest two readings of the situation. The first is optimistic and holds that all parties concerned have come to the conclusion that it is impossible for any of the rival camps to gain a victory by force in any of the crisis zones and, therefore, compromise solutions are inevitable. The second reading is the pessimistic one. It holds that opportunities for compromise have long since ended and that recent developments signify only the calm that precedes the inevitable storm, in this case one of cataclysmic proportions.
Regretfully, I tend towards the second reading for several reasons. First, concrete factors in favour of acceptable compromise solutions are not sufficiently available on any of the said fronts. While some factors may propel towards temporary calm in order to forestall escalation, the motives and positions of adversaries remain too far apart. Second, although none of the regional and international parties, apart from the US and Israel, have an interest in escalating situations, these parties do not possess sufficient leverage to alter balances of power in a manner conducive to mutually acceptable settlements. Third, while it is true that the US and Israel have previously tried to impose compromises or settlements by force, especially in Palestine and Lebanon, and that these attempts have failed miserably, there is no evidence that they have reconciled themselves to the need for real compromise. Both continue to regard Iran as a major threat to their security and their interests in the region and both realise that if the Iranian nuclear programme is not destroyed or totally contained before autumn it will be difficult to accomplish that objective in the near future.
For the foregoing reasons we can not rule out the possibility that current attempts to calm down tensions along the arc of Middle Eastern crises is, in fact, only prelude to a blanket offensive that has been on the drawing boards for some time. This conclusion is supported by several serious political analyses that I have come across recently and that concur on two essential points. The first is that Israel no longer trusts in the ability of diplomatic means to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions and, therefore, insists that other means -- principally military -- be brought to bear before the end of Bush's term in office. Bush, of course, is totally sympathetic and ready to be of service, as Chris Hedges warns in his article "The Iran Trap" appearing on Truthdig.org 8 June. Among other evidence pointing in that direction, Hedges cites the letter by House Judiciary Chairman John Conyers to President Bush threatening to open impeachment proceedings if Bush attacked Iran. Conyers, in that letter, points to the resignation of Admiral William J Fallon -- reportedly the only person who could have forestalled a US "pre- emptive" strike -- from the head of US Central Command as an indication that the Bush administration was unilaterally planning for military action against that country.
The second point of agreement is that Iran possesses many powerful deterrents that would make a military attack against it a stroke of madness. But then, who is to say Bush is not mad? I personally fear that Bush could be driven by his megalomania and his fundamentalist creed to bring on Armageddon.
* The writer is a professor of political science at Cairo University.
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