LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 04/08

Bible Reading of the day
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 1,29-34. The next day he saw Jesus coming toward him and said, "Behold, the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world. He is the one of whom I said, 'A man is coming after me who ranks ahead of me because he existed before me.' I did not know him, but the reason why I came baptizing with water was that he might be made known to Israel." John testified further, saying, "I saw the Spirit come down like a dove from the sky and remain upon him. I did not know him, but the one who sent me to baptize with water told me, 'On whomever you see the Spirit come down and remain, he is the one who will baptize with the holy Spirit.' Now I have seen and testified that he is the Son of God."

Free Opinions and Releases
Damascus may have just lost the Arabs-By Michael Young.January 03/08
Lebanon's problems must have Lebanese solutions-The Daily Star.January 03/08 

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for January 03/08
Opposition Plans to Close Airport, Ports, Launch Sit-in Protests at Bkirki, U.S. Embassy-Naharnet
A Renewed War of Attrition Between the International Community and ...Naharnet
Bkirki Sources: Aoun should Seek Clarification from Sfeir-Naharnet
Jumblat: No Veto Power to Assad, Ahmadinejad-Naharnet
Amal's Hassan Khalil Hits Back at Hariri-Naharnet
U.S. Cargo Trucks to Lebanese Army-Naharnet
Nasrallah: No Elections Unless Opposition Gets Veto Power-Naharnet
Hariri Accuses Muallem of Trying to Foil Arab Efforts to Salvage ...Naharnet
Syria retaliates against France on Lebanon-AFP
Israel Signals Willingness To Reopen Talks With Syria-Forward
Nasrallah: no opposition veto, no presidential election-Daily Star
Syria fires back at France over Lebanese crisis-Daily Star
'History will not forgive those who block solutions-Daily Star
Iran seeks 'to restore peace, security' in Lebanon-Daily Star 
US delivers cargo trucks to Lebanese Army-Daily Star 
General Security staff face arrest over nightclub raid-Daily Star 
Jumblatt 'lied' to Syrians - or did he?-Daily Star 
Knesset panel blames army for war woes-Daily Star 
Political rift shows no signs of healing at dawn of new year-Daily Star 
Army puts down clashes in Basta-Daily Star
Israel's self-vindication over cluster bombs 'not surprising-By IRIN News.org
'Clairvoyant' sees real-estate boom, small clashes in 2008- Daily Star
UNIFIL beefs up security after new bin Laden audio tape-Daily Star 
Oil crosses $100 barrier for first time ever-Daily Star 

Opposition Plans to Close Airport, Ports, Launch Sit-in Protests at Bkirki, U.S. Embassy
Naharnet/The Hizbullah-led Opposition plans to close Beirut airport as well as major ports across Lebanon. It was also considering launching sit-in protests at Bkirki and the U.S. embassy in Aukar, it was reported on Thursday. The report was carried by the pro-opposition newspaper al-Akhbar and the daily al Mustaqbal, mouthpiece of MP Saad Hariri's Future movement. Al Akhbar, citing unnamed sources, said the opposition was studying the possibility of closing down Rafik Hariri international airport as well as most ports along the Lebanese coast. It said the opposition was also examining the prospects of "organizing a large sit-in" near the U.S. embassy in Aukar and blocking vital roads. The daily said these "ideas were still under serious debate among the various factions to avoid plunging the country into internal strife." Al Moustaqbal, meanwhile, said the opposition's "plan" covers a number of items. Among them was a sit-in outside Bkirki in "protest" of the Maronite church's stance regarding the presidential election crisis. It said a similar sit-in at Aukar would be organized in "protest" of the U.S.' supportive position vis-à-vis the majority March 14 alliance. Al Moustaqbal cited the "intent to push the country into a siege, plunge it into more chaos and exhaust security forces, particularly the army" as motives behind the "hostile stance" in closing the airport road. Beirut, 03 Jan 08, 11:17

Amal's Hassan Khalil Hits Back at Hariri
Naharnet/Amal MP Ali Hassan Khalil on Thursday hit back at legislator Saad Hariri, saying talk about Speaker Nabih Berri's seclusion from negotiations by Syria and the diminishing of Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah's role by Iran are rumors. Hariri on Wednesday accused Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem of "twisting facts … and I believe our French friends were aware of that."Hariri said that Muallem tried to "seclude Berri from negotiations and aimed at restricting dialogue to Gen. Michel Aoun."Khalil, in a statement from Ain al-Tineh, also accused Hariri and his allies of "wasting time" so as not to achieve consensus on a presidential candidate by trying to "promote elections through a half-plus-one (vote of MPs)." Beirut, 03 Jan 08, 14:13

Bkirki Sources: Aoun Should Seek Clarification from Sfeir
Naharnet/Bkirki sources said that Free Patriotic Movement leader Gen. Michel Aoun should seek clarifications "directly" from Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir and not through the media. The sources explained that the constitution stipulates that in the event of a power vacuum presidential powers are handed over to the "government," and not to Prime Minister Fouad Saniora or MP Saad Hariri. On the oppositions' "political basket" demand, the source said the Maronite church does not advocate such a settlement "since it will lead to bringing a President with no authority." The source said the Council of Maronite Bishops does not argue with politicians – not with Aoun nor with Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea. He stressed that the church stands at an equal distance from all political factions and does not back one party against the other. Beirut, 03 Jan 08, 13:54

Jumblat: No Veto Power to Assad, Ahmadinejad
Naharnet/Druze leader Walid Jumblat announced that he will not let Syrian President Bashar al-Assad or his Iranian counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad "rule Lebanon through the one-third blocking" share in the future government. "I will not give Assad or Ahmadinejad a say in Lebanon (politics). They can have it only after we are buried," Jumblat said in a live interview with ANB television late Wednesday. The interview with Jumblat coincided with another aired simultaneously with Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. Jumblat said the majority March 14 alliance has already given a lot of concessions, stressing that he will not comply with the opposition's demands. He said that meeting the opposition's terms was tantamount to "working for the interest" of the Syrian and the Iranian presidents, describing Ahmadinejad as "crazy" while Assad as a "kid."Jumblat urged Nasrallah to adopt the Taef Accord as well as what had been agreed upon previously at the dialogue table. "But Nasrallah wants everything and says 'all of you are under my guardianship,'" Jumblat said.
Jumblat said that the anti-government factions are eying the justice ministry in the future cabinet to obstruct the trial of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri's assassins in the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. This constitutes "a threat to the tribunal," Jumblat said. He suggested giving the majority 14 cabinet seats, the opposition 10 and the president 6 in the new government. The leader of the Progressive Socialist Party described the assassination of Brig. Gen. Francois el-Hajj last month as "a message to all the Lebanese that they don't have the right to choose their president." Beirut, 03 Jan 08, 08:31

Nasrallah: No Elections Unless Opposition Gets Veto Power
Naharnet/Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah declared that there will be no President in Lebanon unless the opposition gets veto power in the future government and warned that the anti-government camp would take decisive measures within 10 days if mediation efforts fail. Nasrallah accused the anti-Syrian parliamentary majority of creating the current presidential deadlock by refusing a partnership with the Syrian-backed opposition. It "wants to fully control authority and rejects partnership with the other party ... A veto power means that the opposition becomes a partner (in the future government)," Nasrallah said in a recorded interview aired Wednesday night on the private Lebanese NBN TV network. "A solution lies in a partnership through a constitutional guarantee (and) through a veto power for the opposition, which represents more than half of the Lebanese people," Nasrallah said. The interview was aired simultaneously by Hizbullah's Al-Manar television. Nasrallah said that France's mediation with Syria on Lebanon's political crisis would go on despite the two countries breaking off contacts over the issue.
He said that "France's mediation has not finished, despite President Nicolas Sarkozy inappropriately raising the tone" of the talks by officially halting contacts with Syria. But Nasrallah warned that the opposition would take "decisive measures" within 10 days if mediation efforts fail.
"The French and the Syrians are attempting to arrive at a compromise ... but if this mediation fails, there will not be others, and the opposition will mobilize using all peaceful means possible," he said without providing further details. Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem announced on Wednesday that Syria was breaking off contacts with France on the political crisis in Lebanon, responding to a similar gesture by Paris three days ago. Muallem said Syria had been surprised by Sarkozy's announcement on Sunday that France was cutting contacts, as it came just two days after Damascus had reached agreement with Paris on a comprehensive deal to end the crisis. Sarkozy accused Syria on Sunday of failing to match its words about wanting a settlement to the crisis in Lebanon with deeds on the ground.
Nasrallah said Hizbullah supported Army Commander Gen. Michel Suleiman for president to replace Emile Lahoud, whose term ended on Nov. 23 without a successor being chosen. But Suleiman's election "will not solve the problem without a national unity government in which the opposition gets a veto power," he said.
A parliamentary session to elect a new president was postponed for the 11th time on Dec. 28 with feuding factions deadlocked over a constitutional amendment and the shape of a future government. A new parliament session has been set for Jan. 12.
The crisis over the presidency has capped a yearlong power struggle between anti-Syrian politicians, who hold a slim majority in parliament and support the government of Prime Minister Fouad Saniora, and the opposition led by Hizbullah. The ruling coalition accuses the opposition of obstructing the presidential vote under orders from Syria and Iran, which back Hizbullah. In turn, the opposition claims pro-government groups in the parliament majority follow U.S. policies.
Nasrallah accused the United States of obstructing the presidential vote by telling its allies in the parliamentary majority not to give the opposition a veto power in any future government. "As long as there is a U.S. decision not to give the opposition a veto power, this means there won't be a presidential election," he said.
Lawmakers on both sides have agreed to back Suleiman as a compromise candidate, but parliament must first amend the constitution to allow a sitting military chief to become president.(Naharnet-AP-AFP) Beirut, 03 Jan 08, 05:22

U.S. Cargo Trucks to Lebanese Army
Naharnet/The United States government has delivered 100 two-and-a-half ton cargo trucks to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), a statement issued by the U.S. Embassy said on Wednesday. It said the trucks commonly known as "deuce and a halfs" were delivered on the week of December 22, 2007 to assist the LAF.
"By the end of January 2008, the U.S. will have provided 200 cargo trucks with more expected throughout 2008," the statement added. "The U.S. recently provided the LAF ammunition worth more than $3.5 million, fulfilling a request made by the government of Lebanon. "These deliveries represent the U.S. government's continued strong support for the Lebanese military," the embassy said. Beirut, 03 Jan 08, 06:37

Hariri Accuses Muallem of Trying to Foil Arab Efforts to Salvage Lebanon
Naharnet/Al Mustaqbal Movement leader Saad Hariri has accused Syria's Foreign Minister Walid Muallem of addressing a "serious message" to Lebanon and attempting to block Arab efforts aimed at settling the ongoing presidential crisis.
Hariri, in a statement released by his press office, said remarks made by Muallem during a press conference earlier Wednesday were a pre-emptive move to block efforts by Arab foreign ministers who are scheduled to tackle the Lebanese crisis in a meeting in Cairo Sunday.
Muallem's remarks, Hariri said, should urge France and the international community to shoulder a "double responsibility" regarding Lebanon, which is facing a "vendetta assault against the success that the Lebanese people have achieved" in forcing the withdrawal of Syria's troops and intelligence agencies after nearly three decades of dominance. Syria, Hariri added, "wants to block the road for whoever wants to extend a helping hand to us, to our state and to our people with the aim of salvaging the Lebanese Republic" from the existing presidential void. He stressed that Army Commander Gen. Michel Suleiman is a serious consensus candidate for the presidential office and is capable of "opening a new chapter that the Syrian Regime wants to prevent.""The list of demands announced by Muallem on behalf of the Syrian Regime … tells the Lebanese that the destiny of their national entente remains in Damascus and that any presidential candidate, Gen. Suleiman included, would not be able to find his way to the Baabda palace without a full understanding with the Syrian Regime," Hariri stated. He accused Muallem of "twisting facts … and I believe our French friends were aware of that."Muallem, according to Hariri, tried to "seclude (Parliament Speaker Nabih) Berri from negotiations and aimed at restricting dialogue to Gen. Michel Aoun."He stressed that "no negotiator is able to promote the Syrian Regime's ideas with Saad Hariri or any other leader of the March 14 alliance."Muallem "wants a solution in Lebanon, not based on Lebanese national consensus, but in line with terms set by his March 8 allies in Lebanon," Hariri said.  He concluded by stressing: "The chief of Syria's diplomacy was negotiating the French Administration on behalf of the March 8 forces. The (settlement) text was in his pocket and not in the pocket of any Lebanese side." He was apparently referring to Aoun. Beirut, 02 Jan 08, 18:21

France Reiterates Halt of Contacts With Damascus
Naharnet/France reiterated Wednesday that it would not have contacts with Syria until Damascus facilitates presidential elections in Lebanon
"What we have told the Syrians is that our political contacts are at an end until Syria shows good faith," French Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Pascale Andreani said. Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem mocked the French calls for Syria to use its influence saying they flew in the face of repeated Western demands for it to keep out of Lebanon's affairs. "They keep asking us not to intervene in Lebanon but at the same time they ask us to use our influence with our Lebanese allies," Muallem complained earlier in the day. Asked whether France's mediation efforts had given Syria a renewed prominence in its smaller neighbor's affairs, Andreani insisted they had not. "France remains engaged and is still ready to do its bit in the search for a solution," Andreani said. On Friday, a Lebanese parliament session called to elect a president was postponed until January 12, the 11th time that a vote had been put off. The Lebanese cabinet has accused the opposition of repeatedly blocking the vote at the behest of Syria after the two sides reached agreement on Army Chief Gen. Michel Suleiman as a compromise candidate for the presidency.(AFP-Naharnet) Beirut, 02 Jan 08, 18:52

Israel Signals Willingness To Reopen Talks With Syria
Specter After Assad Visit: Prospects For Peace Negotiations ‘Very Good’
By Nathan Guttman
Wed. Jan 02, 2008
Washington - Following a softening of the Bush administration’s opposition to Israeli-Syrian contacts, the Israeli government is actively exploring the possibility of reopening negotiations with Syria, according to Israeli sources and a senior Republican lawmaker who visited Damascus last week.
The Republican lawmaker, Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, spoke after meeting last Sunday, December 30, with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and conveying a message from Israel’s prime minister, Ehud Olmert. Specter, accompanied by Democratic Rep. Patrick Kennedy of Rhode Island, told Assad that Israel is still waiting for a response to its request that Syria take public actions to prove its readiness for peace negotiations. For Specter, this message was seen as giving a green light to negotiations. “The time is right now, and prospects are very good,” the senator told reporters in Damascus after meeting Assad. “The parties will continue talks through intermediaries, and it’s my hope and expectation at some point, if preliminary progress has been made, the U.S. government would be ready, too.”
Israel’s sudden willingness to engage in talks with Syria represents a change in policy in both Washington and Jerusalem. During the past year, Washington has repeatedly signaled to Israel that talks with Syria should be avoided because they would be seen as rewarding the Damascus regime. By contrast, the new policy sees the opening of a negotiating channel as an opportunity to break Syria’s link with Iran and to weaken Tehran’s foothold in the region. David Makovsky, a senior fellow with The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said that this approach represents a split within the Bush administration on the issue of Syria. “On the one hand, Secretary Rice believes that it is important to keep the Syrians in the tent and to distance them from the Iranian orbit,” Makovsky said, “but on the other hand, [Vice President] Cheney and others are very suspicious because of Syria’s activity in Lebanon.”
Three days before meeting Assad, Specter met in Jerusalem with the Israeli prime minister and asked if he had any message to relay to Assad. Olmert, according to a source in Jerusalem, told the senator to pass on the message that “Israel is still waiting for an answer” to previous messages and that “the ball is in their court now.” Olmert was referring, according to the Israeli source, to the demand that Assad make clear that a peace accord with Israel will bring an end to Syria’s support for terror groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah, and that actions be taken in this direction even before peace talks begin.
When Specter asked how the Syrians would know that Olmert is serious about resuming peace talks, Olmert answered, according to a source briefed on the conversation, that his sincerity had been demonstrated by the fact that he did not oppose Syria’s participation in the Annapolis, Md., peace conference last November.
Coming out of their December 30 meeting with Assad, Specter and Kennedy sounded upbeat about the prospects of pushing Israeli-Syrian contacts forward. Specter told reporters that Israel would clearly have to return the Golan Heights to Syria in any agreement, and that a peace accord would also have to address Israeli concerns about Syria’s support of terror groups. “There are questions about security and about confidence-building. There are problems with Hamas and Hezbollah, and there’s a perception that Syria could be helpful in those matters,” Specter said.
Specter, a five-term veteran and one of only three Jewish Republicans on Capitol Hill, has made promoting negotiations with Syria a personal quest. This week’s visit marked the 16th time Specter has landed in Damascus, in a series of visits that began when Assad’s father, the late president Hafez al-Assad, was still in power. Specter is also a strong advocate of increasing the American role in brokering a peace accord between Israel and Syria and in establishing open communication channels between Washington and Damascus. On their recent visit, Specter and Kennedy managed to secure a promise to release seven dissidents jailed by the regime because of their opposition activities.
The first sign of change in American policy toward Syria came with the invitation to participate in the Annapolis peace conference. This act, according to analysts, signaled the separation between two strands of thought in Washington: the frustration over Syria’s meddling in the internal politics of neighboring Lebanon on one hand, and on the other hand, the hope that Syria can play a positive role in the Middle East peace process. Imad Mustapha, Syria’s ambassador to Washington, said last month in a round-table discussion at Georgetown University that Damascus was initially opposed to taking part in the peace parley and that he agreed to come only after being pressured by Palestinians, the Arab League and the United States. At the same time, Mustapha expressed skepticism regarding the outcome of the Annapolis conference, saying he did not believe that it would achieve any progress.
Syria has faced increased international pressure in recent weeks because of its apparent role in derailing Lebanese presidential elections. French President Nicolas Sarkozy announced December 30 that he is severing all ties with Syria until France receives “proof of Syrian intention to let Lebanon designate a president of consensus.” And in the United States, President Bush said last month that his “patience ran out on President Assad a long time ago.”
For Israel, the Lebanese issue is seen as marginal. Jerusalem is pinning its hopes on having Syria join the peace process and subsequently distance itself from Iranian influence.
In a memo outlining its policy goals for the coming year, Israel’s Foreign Ministry cited the Syrian issue as one of its main objectives. The memo, sent out last week by ministry director-general Aharon Abramovitch, states that Israel’s goal is to develop “a strategy to detach Syria from the radical axis.” An Israeli source told the Forward that the main tool for achieving this goal is engaging in peace talks with Syria. Yet, in a separate report published last month, the Foreign Ministry research arm concluded that Syria is unlikely to move forward as long as the Bush administration is in office, because it sees a peace accord with Israel as a vehicle for improving relations with Washington.
This point was made clear at the outset of the Specter-Kennedy visit to Damascus. Following the lawmakers’ conversations with Assad, the state-run Al-Thawra newspaper ran an editorial calling on Washington to increase its involvement in the Israeli-Syrian peace process. America, the newspaper said, “should be the most daring party to relaunch overt negotiations without hesitation.”

Admissions of Iraqi Refugees Lagging
By MATTHEW LEE –
WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. admissions of Iraqi refugees are nose-diving amid bureaucratic in-fighting despite the Bush administration's pledge to boost them to roughly 1,000 per month, according to State Department statistics obtained by The Associated Press.
For the third straight month since the United States said it would improve processing and resettle 12,000 Iraqis by the end of the current budget year on Sept. 30., the number admitted has actually slid, the figures show.
The steady decline — from 450 in October to 362 in November and 245 in December — means the administration will have to allow in 10,943 Iraqis over the next nine months, or roughly 1,215 per month, to meet the target it has set for itself.
But that goal will be difficult to meet and there are few precedents for such large influxes since hundreds of thousands of South Vietnamese refugees were resettled here after the Vietnam War ended in 1975.
In the past five years, with few exceptions, notably Somalia and Liberia, the United States has never been able to admit more than 1,000 refugees per month from any country, according to an AP review of statistics from the State Department's Bureau of Population, Refugees and Migration.
Iraqi refugees are subject to more security checks than those from almost all other nations and the most Iraqis ever admitted to the U.S. in a single month since 2003 was 889 this past September.
The administration has come under heavy criticism from advocacy groups and lawmakers for its poor performance on admitting Iraqi refugees who have fled violence since the 2003 U.S. invasion. Many critics say, and Bush aides have acknowledged, that the administration has a moral obligation to Iraqi refugees.
In response, it vowed to fix the problems that include bickering between the State Department, which is in charge of refugee resettlement, and the Homeland Security Department, which must screen would-be Iraqi admittees, and a lack of cooperation from countries, notably Syria, where many of the estimated 2 million Iraqi refugees are seeking shelter.
Two senior officials from the agencies were appointed in September to remedy the bureaucratic slowdowns, but four months later there has yet to be significant improvement, although the number allowed in so far in fiscal 2008 — now 1,057 — is nearing the total for the entire previous fiscal year of 1,608.
That fiscal 2007 figure was nearly 400 short of a modest annual goal of 2,000 and a big reduction from an initial target of 7,000.
U.S. officials have conceded that the figures remained low but insisted that improvements in processing, along with new cooperation from Syrian authorities, would lead to substantial jumps in the admissions figures from Iraq starting in the spring.
Yet, refugee advocates said Wednesday they are extremely disappointed that the administration's initiatives have yet to produce results, particularly as conditions for Iraqi refugees in Syria, Jordan, Lebanon and other neighboring countries worsen.
"This is quite a shocking result," said Ken Bacon, president of Refugees International. "We keep hearing they are bolstering the program, but the figures keep going down. The next months are going to be make-or-break for the program."
He said that persistent recent declines in admissions might be the result of the U.S. winter holiday season, which may have reduced the number of interviewers dispatched to screen refugees in the region, but Bacon stressed that the process should not be dependent on the vacations of American officials.
"That may reflect some of the slowness, but it doesn't mean the needs are becoming increasingly urgent during our holidays," Bacon said. "We're in a new year and without major holidays for the next few months, they ought to be able to ramp these numbers up. The problem is they keep promising and not delivering."
In addition to appealing for action to immediately boost U.S. admissions, Refugees International and 17 other advocacy groups have urged President Bush to use his trip to the Middle East that begins next week to press leaders there for financial assistance to ease the plight of Iraqis who have fled their homes.
"This displacement crisis has grave humanitarian implications as well as potential negative ramifications for regional security," they said in a letter to Bush sent on New Year's Eve. "At a time when you have expressed optimism about the prospect of regional dialogue as a way forward to an era of peace and prosperity, it is vital that your administration engage proactively to deal with the impacts of Iraqi displacement."
"We believe that it is imperative that you use this visit to the region to highlight the importance of a robust international response to the humanitarian needs of displaced Iraqis," they said.
According to the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, more than 2 million Iraqis have fled their country. Of these, 1.2 million are in Syria, 750,000 in Jordan, 100,000 in Egypt, 54,000 in Iran, 40,000 in Lebanon, 10,000 in Turkey and 200,000 in various Persian Gulf countries.
The U.N. refugee agency has referred more than 14,000 Iraqis to the United States for resettlement.

Lebanon's problems must have Lebanese solutions
By The Daily Star
Thursday, January 03, 2008
Editorial
It would be naive to take at face value statements made by Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem at his press conference on Wednesday. All governments are in the habit of saying one thing while doing another, and the regime Moallem represents is certainly no exception. Nonetheless, there may have been a glimmer of hope in his expression of concern about the continuing political impasse in Beirut. The Syrian minister made what seemed like a genuine appeal to rival Lebanese parties to resume dialogue in order to reach "a consensus solution, away from any foreign interference."
Of course, similar revelations would have to be witnessed and absorbed in capitals other than Damascus in order for the Lebanese crisis to end, but a reduction in Syrian pressure could buy time for other actors to come to their senses. In the final analysis, though, it is the Lebanese who must take the lead in solving their own problems. Moallem's reckoning has been affected, no doubt, by his own government's rapidly deteriorating relations with France's because of the Lebanese logjam. If and when Lebanese politicians start differentiating between their own interests and those of their respective foreign backers, they too might begin to take more sophisticated approaches to this season of our discontent.
Moallem was not the first to call for dialogue in Lebanon, his sincerity is at least as open to suspicion as anyone else's, and all of the outside players seem to think that negotiations are just a formality until they get their way. These dangerous delusions reinforce (and are reinforced by) the fabulist tendencies of many Lebanese political figures. The result is a series of client relationships based on preposterous appeals to common cause and irresponsible assurances of unconditional future backing.
The Lebanese public is not easily fooled, but nor is it easily roused from fatalistic slumber. Most people in this country seem to know that their politicians are perilously reliant on foreign sponsors, and that the status quo is unsustainable. Many have also determined, however, that they are powerless to bring about change. Their leaders' constituencies are at least partly located abroad, making them almost immune to conventional means of communicating popular displeasure. It is very common, therefore, for Lebanese to assume that things cannot be made better, that the only choice is to make the best of a bad situation at home or seek out greener pastures abroad.
In truth, though, everyday people can help to reduce the danger. They can, for example, create new organizations that denounce fratricidal foolishness. Some Lebanese have already done this, albeit in a factionalized manner. More crucially, individuals can decide in advance that, even if they cannot be part of an active solution, they will not be party to any exacerbation of the problem. If and when tensions reach the critical level, the tribal chieftains must be denied the fodder (i.e. human bodies) they will need to keep the cycle of violence going. If sufficient numbers of Lebanese refuse to be used as battering rams by a bankrupt political class, some other way of resolving differences will have a chance of being accepted.

Damascus may have just lost the Arabs
By Michael Young
Daily Star staff
Thursday, January 03, 2008
Two things happened this New Year's holiday to reinforce Lebanon's deadlock. The first was the fighting early this week between Hariri partisans and Shiite supporters of Amal and Hizbullah in the mixed Basta neighborhood; the second was the nature of the celebrations welcoming in 2008, a substantial amount of which involved machine-gun fire.
Both events indicated that the next irresponsible step forward by any side in Lebanon's crisis could be the point of no return. The Lebanese are armed, primed, and, while firmly opposed to the idea of war, in a state of mind to sustain one if things were ever to get out of control.
Oddly enough, this balance of terror might be a good thing, as it will oblige everyone to respect the advantages of statis. The parliamentary majority, despite talk of the contrary, will almost certainly not go for a half-plus-one option to elect a new president, because of the likely blowback in the streets; opposition parties must now consider the grave danger of blocking roads again, as some opposition figures have lately implied they would. The system is tied in a Gordian knot that only a regional shift will loosen.
The Syrian regime has blocked everything, but in so doing may have overplayed its hand. Its monochromatic policy in Lebanon - that of re-imposing Syria's writ without compromise - is backfiring. Damascus can destroy but it cannot really build anything. Its ultimate card is a Lebanese civil war, but for the moment Iran appears not to want one. Having spent hundreds of millions of dollars, if not more, on Hizbullah during the past year and a half, it seems reluctant to sanction a debilitating conflict that would swallow up its main Lebanese ally, much as the 1975 Civil War did the Palestinian Liberation Organization. Moreover, sectarian fighting would only mobilize Arab Sunnis against Iran and force Tehran to turn its attentions to a country not a centerpiece of its regional strategy.
Iran and Syria are usually on the same wavelength, but there is a key difference between them. Syria's efforts are largely concentrated on Lebanon, the Assad regime's ticket to regional relevance, while Iran's are not. Without Lebanon - specifically the ability to manipulate violence along the northern Israeli border for leverage - Damascus cannot seriously contemplate resuming peace negotiations with Israel. None of the self-styled mediators between Israel and Syria seem to have grasped this reality. Denied the Lebanese card, Syrian President Bashar Assad has few means of pushing Israel toward a deal he can sell to his own people. That's why his Lebanon policy is not driven by a need to avoid a "hostile" government in Beirut, as some insist; it is driven by the need to dominate Lebanon entirely, without which Syria will remain weak regionally.
The Iranians play on a wider field. Lebanon is important to them, and Tehran will continue to fight hard to avoid a Syrian debacle there. However, the Islamic Republic must also consider its relations with the United States, Europe, and Russia, its ties with the mainly Sunni Arab states (amid improving contacts with Egypt and Saudi Arabia), the balance of power in Iraq, the Iranian economy and its impact on regime survival, and myriad other interests that discourage adventurism in Lebanon. Also, the complex, often hostile, relations between different power centers in Tehran make equilibrium between them a natural default position when shaping foreign policy, checking the behavior of Iranian allies outside.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy got all the attention last weekend when he announced that his government was cutting off contacts with Syria over Lebanon. This detracted from the equally important statement of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who also blamed Syria for the Lebanese impasse. This was the same Mubarak who had repeatedly tried to mediate between the Syrians and Saudis, and who, last November, floated the idea of army commander General Michel Suleiman (then regarded as acceptable to Syria) as a presidential candidate. The fact that Mubarak should have expressed public exasperation with Syria alongside Sarkozy, as the Syrians prepared to torpedo a joint effort by Egypt and Saudi Arabia to hold an Arab League foreign ministers meeting on Lebanon, suggested he is close to the end of his tether with Assad.
It's difficult to have much confidence in the Arab states, but Lebanon's fate has become an existential issue for the Saudis - beyond the question of their support for this or that faction. With Iraq effectively under Shiite control, Iran now spared an American attack, at least momentarily, and Syria and Iran having undermined the inter-Palestinian Mecca Accord, Saudi Arabia is not about to cede more ground in Lebanon.
This week, a story in the Kuwaiti daily As-Siyassah quoted a Lebanese diplomat in Cairo as saying the Saudis believe Syria has sponsored anti-regime Salafists in the kingdom itself. As-Siyassah is close to King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and no Lebanese diplomat would have made such a charge on the record without getting a Saudi green light to do so. Whatever the truth of the accusation, it is an extremely serious one, underlining that the Saudis are increasingly willing to label the Assad regime a threat to their stability. The logical flip side is that Riyadh might retaliate by playing domestic Syrian sectarian politics.
Pro-regime media and analysts in Syria have lately put out the word that Syria is confident the Arab League summit scheduled for March in Damascus will be successful. That bravado betrays deep anxiety. The summit is supposed to be a crowning moment for the Assad regime, where it can prove that it is a bona fide regional heavyweight. The Syrians hope to use the gathering in one way or another to cash their Lebanese chips in. They also probably hope that a diplomatic triumph will strengthen their hand with Iran, buying Syria more credibility in the partnership and more room to maneuver throughout the region. If the summit is a fiasco, Syria could be shown up as being regionally irrelevant.
No amount of car bombs in Beirut will make the Arab summit a success if the Saudis and Egyptians, like the Americans and French, believe that a dangerous and unreliable Assad merits isolation. A Lebanese civil war, in turn, assuming that Iran would ever agree to push Hizbullah into such a mad venture, could have negative repercussions for Syria itself. Hafez Assad, who always hooked Syrian behavior to a regional consensus; who avoided placing Syria at the forefront of Sunni-Shiite tension for too long; and who always kept an open line to Riyadh, must be rolling in his grave.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR.