LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
February 18/08

Bible Reading of the day.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 17,1-9. After six days Jesus took Peter, James, and John his brother, and led them up a high mountain by themselves. And he was transfigured before them; his face shone like the sun and his clothes became white as light. And behold, Moses and Elijah appeared to them, conversing with him. Then Peter said to Jesus in reply, "Lord, it is good that we are here. If you wish, I will make three tents here, one for you, one for Moses, and one for Elijah."While he was still speaking, behold, a bright cloud cast a shadow over them, then from the cloud came a voice that said, "This is my beloved Son, with whom I am well pleased; listen to him."When the disciples heard this, they fell prostrate and were very much afraid. But Jesus came and touched them, saying, "Rise, and do not be afraid." And when the disciples raised their eyes, they saw no one else but Jesus alone. As they were coming down from the mountain, Jesus charged them, "Do not tell the vision to anyone until the Son of Man has been raised from the dead."

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
Obama Has More Faith in the UN, Iran & Syria Than U.S. Soldiers in Iraq. By: Aaron Goldstein.CFP.18/02/08

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for February 17/08
Syria Detains 'Arab Suspects' in The Mughniyeh Assassination-Naharnet
Israel to declare Lebanon hostages dead - report-Jewish Telegraphic Agency
West Beirut Clashes Wound at least 20 People Amidst Mounting Tension-Naharnet
Barak: Israel Preparing to Confront Hizbullah Attack-Naharnet
Clashes erupt in Beirut between rival supporters-Xinhua
'Mughniyeh, Syria were planning attac k'-Jerusalem Post
Rights group: Israel broke law with use of cluster bombs in Lebanon-International Herald Tribune
BBC sorry for Mughniyeh-Harir i parallel-Jerusalem Post
Army Warns Against Persisting Quarrels-Naharnet
Saniora: Open War on Israel Harms Hizbullah, Islamic, Arab Causes-Naharnet
Mughniyeh Mourned in Kuwait-Naharnet
The Two Lebanons-Naharnet
The New War Sparked by Mughniyeh's Assassination-Naharnet
Decoding Lebanese Paranoia-New York Times
US backs 'strong democratic' Lebanon on Hariri anniversary-AFP
Soueid: March 14 Will Elect a President by Simple Majority-Naharnet
March 14 Warns of New Plan following Thursday's Rally-Naharnet
Khaddam Accuses Syria of Killing Mughniyeh-Naharnet
5.5 million Donation from Qatar to Bint Jbeil-Naharnet
Investigating Magistrate Withdraws from 'Black Sunday' Case-Naharnet
FBI warns of revenge attacks-Los Angeles Times
Israel placed on high alert after open-war threat by Hezbollah ...Times Online
Israeli embassies on high alert after Hezbollah chief threatens to ...International Herald Tribune
Hezbollah threaten ‘open’ war with Israel at funeral of terror ...Canada Free Press
Lebanese official: Hezbollah has appointed successor to slained Mughniyah ...International Herald Tribune
Assassinated Hezbollah Terrorist Avoided Detection for Long Time-Voice of America
Hezbollah probes killing before striking-Middle East Times
Hezbollah Threat Echoes in Argentina-The Associated Press
Iran's FM Meets With Syrian Officials About Slain Hezbollah Commander-Voice of America

Syria Detains 'Arab Suspects' in The Mughniyeh Assassination
Naharnet/The Syrian authorities have detained Arab suspects for questioning in connection with the murder in Damascus of a top Hizbullah commander, the pro-government Al-Watan newspaper reported on Sunday. "Suspects of various Arab nationalities have been arrested," the newspaper said quoting what it described as a well-informed source. "Syria will announce the results of the investigations when the probe is over," it added. Imad Mughniyeh was killed by a car bomb late on Tuesday in a Damascus residential neighborhood. The Lebanese Shiite militant group, backed by Syria and Iran, blamed Israel for the murder but the Jewish state -- which welcomed Mughniyeh death -- denied any involvement. Mughniyeh was on the Most Wanted lists of Israel and the United States for a string of bloody attacks in the 1980s and 1990s that targeted the interests of both countries, regionally and across the globe. He eluded capture after having plastic surgery to alter his appearance, Western intelligence services have said. Mughniyeh "frequently traveled to Syria under different identities," Al-Watan said. It said Mughniyeh visited Syria "without the knowledge of the Syrian security services" and that "Syria was not in charge of Mughniyeh's security." "Mughniyeh did not live in Damascus. He arrived from Lebanon on the same day of the assassination," Al-Watan said. "Syria is a country open to all the Arabs -- thousands cross the border daily," it said. "A million-and-a-half Iraqis and thousands of Arabs live in Syria. Some may be linked to intelligence services and parties based abroad," it said, quoting the "well-informed source." It also said that the Mitsubishi Pajero car that exploded killing Mughniyeh did not belong to him, as initially reported. Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem said on Thursday that he expected whoever killed Mughniyeh would soon be unmasked, calling his murder a "despicable crime."(AFP) Beirut, 17 Feb 08, 13:56

West Beirut Clashes Wound at least 20 People Amidst Mounting Tension
Naharnet/At least 20 people were wounded in clashes between rival factions in Beirut overnight amidst mounting tension between the March 14 majority and the Hizbullah-led opposition. The clashes broke out around 10 pm Saturday between supporters of Saad Hariri's Mustaqbal Movement and followers of Hizbullah and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri's AMAL movement in west Beirut's districts of Ras al-Nabaa, Bechara al-Khoury, Barbour, Nweiri and Tariq Jedideh.
The Mustaqbal newspaper, mouthpiece of the Hariri movement, accused officers of parliament police of attacking "citizens in Beirut's residential areas."
AMAL, in a statement, denied its partisans were involved in the clashes with clubs, Iron rods, metal chains and rocks.
The crackle of automatic fire could be heard in several Beirut districts overnight before army units and police patrols intervened to disengage the feuding groups.
The Mustaqbal newspaper accused an assailant identified as Ali Hassan of hurling an improvised incendiary bomb (Molotov Cocktail) at a residential apartment in Ras al-Nabaa district.
The report did not disclose further details.
The political affiliation of Hassan, who goes by the code-name of al-Irani, was not disclosed by the report.
Also it could not be determined if police and army patrols made any arrests during the clashes.
The Mustaqbal newspapers described the clashes as "premeditated aggression" that resulted in wounding 20 "citizens."
The army and police deployed elite units in the attempts to disengage the feuding factions and contain the escalating tension.
Hizbullah, on its part, denied reports that its office in Ras al-Nabaa was attacked by a Molotov Cocktail incendiary bomb.
Tension prevailed over west Beirut Sunday. Streets were deserted except for groups of young men gathered at corners or entrances to buildings as army and police patrols drove across the city.
Meanwhile, the daily an-Nahar said regional contacts were underway to facilitate the return of Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa to Beirut to resume his efforts aimed at facilitating the Arab initiative.
Premier Fouad Saniora held telephone discussions with Moussa, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal and the head of Saudi intelligence Prince Miqrin bin Abdul Aziz.
The contacts focused on future efforts to implement the Arab initiative.
A government source said the initiative would be re-activated in light of "new facts" based on the mass rally held Thursday to commemorate the third anniversary of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri assassination. Moussa's media advisor Abul Alim al-Abiad confirmed that his boss would return to Beirut, but refused to set a schedule for renewing the secretary general's mission. An-Nahar said Moussa would return to Beirut on Feb. 21, five days before a scheduled parliamentary session to elect a president. Beirut, 17 Feb 08, 09:44

Army Warns Against Persisting Quarrels
Naharnet/The Lebanese Army Command on Sunday warned against seriousness of the persisting "quarrels" stressing that it would not be lax in dealing with disorders.The statement noted that "some partisans, zealots and agitators … have been gathering and making chants of challenge and support that develop into wrangling and quarrels with means of harm that result in a number of casualties and inflicting damage to private property, which raises concern of citizens and threatens their security and stability."It added that army units "intervene and disengage" the feuding faction in addition to "arresting rioters, conducting patrols and setting up checkpoints to reinforce security and prevent aggressions.""The Army command draws the attention to seriousness of what is happening that reflects the absence of national responsibility … it also urges citizens to remain at home or at work and refrain from taking part in gatherings … to avoid arrest on charges of agitation," the statement added. Beirut, 17 Feb 08, 12:53

Soueid: March 14 will Elect a President by Simple Majority
Naharnet/Former MP Faris Soueid on Saturday warned that the pro-government March 14 coalition will use its constitutional right to elect army commander Gen. Michel Suleiman president by simple majority. "We will eventually reach a time where we will use our constitutional right of electing (Suleiman) by a half-plus-one (of MP votes)," Soueid said in an interview with the Voice of Lebanon radio station. "Gen. Suleiman will be our runner for the half-plus-one," Soueid stressed.
"Today, both Arab and international climates are ready and the popular atmosphere gave March 14 a best weapon to elect Gen. Suleiman according to constitutional norms.""The Arab League will exert moral and political pressure for the election of a president," Soeid told VOL. "But if they failed, the majority will use its constitutional right to elect Suleiman." Soueid ruled out dialogue with Hizbullah, stressing that March 14 was unwilling to make any concessions.
Beirut, 16 Feb 08, 22:59

Israel to declare Lebanon hostages dead - report
Published: 02/17/2008
Jewish Telegrapg Agency
Israel reportedly plans to declare dead two soldiers who were abducted by Hezbollah.
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's administration will soon go public with Israeli assessments that Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev, two army reservists seized by the Lebanese militia in a July 2006 border raid, are dead, Germany's Der Spiegel magazine reported over the weekend. Israeli officials said there was no formal change to Jerusalem's policy that Goldwasser and Regev should be considered alive unless proven otherwise, and the soldiers' families dismissed the Der Spiegel report as speculative. Germany has been key to efforts to mediate an Israeli-Hezbollah prisoner swap under which the soldiers would be returned home.
Hezbollah has refused to give any information on the condition of Goldwasser or Regev. Israeli security sources believe that one or both of the men may have been killed during their kidnapping, given the amount of ordnance used against their convoy as it patroled the Lebanese border. Der Spiegel regularly runs stories about the Middle East and is believed to have high-placed government sources in Israel.

West Beirut Clashes Wound at least 20 People Amidst Mounting Tension
At least 20 people were wounded in clashes between rival factions in Beirut overnight amidst mounting tension between the March 14 majority and the Hizbullah-led opposition. The clashes broke out around 10 pm Saturday between supporters of Saad Hariri's Mustaqbal Movement and followers of Hizbullah and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri's AMAL movement in west Beirut's districts of Ras al-Nabaa, Bechara al-Khoury, Barbour, Nweiri and Tariq Jedideh.
The Mustaqbal newspaper, mouthpiece of the Hariri movement, accused officers of parliament police of attacking "citizens in Beirut's residential areas."
AMAL, in a statement, denied its partisans were involved in the clashes with clubs, Iron rods, metal chains and rocks.
The crackle of automatic fire could be heard in several Beirut districts overnight before army units and police patrols intervened to disengage the feuding groups.
The Mustaqbal newspaper accused an assailant identified as Ali Hassan of hurling an improvised incendiary bomb (Molotov Cocktail) at a residential apartment in Ras al-Nabaa district.
The report did not disclose further details.
The political affiliation of Hassan, who goes by the code-name of al-Irani, was not disclosed by the report.
Also it could not be determined if police and army patrols made any arrests during the clashes.
The Mustaqbal newspapers described the clashes as "premeditated aggression" that resulted in wounding 20 "citizens."
The army and police deployed elite units in the attempts to disengage the feuding factions and contain the escalating tension.
Hizbullah, on its part, denied reports that its office in Ras al-Nabaa was attacked by a Molotov Cocktail incendiary bomb.
Tension prevailed over west Beirut Sunday. Streets were deserted except for groups of young men gathered at corners or entrances to buildings as army and police patrols drove across the city.
Meanwhile, the daily an-Nahar said regional contacts were underway to facilitate the return of Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa to Beirut to resume his efforts aimed at facilitating the Arab initiative.Premier Fouad Saniora held telephone discussions with Moussa, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal and the head of Saudi intelligence Prince Miqrin bin Abdul Aziz. The contacts focused on future efforts to implement the Arab initiative.
A government source said the initiative would be re-activated in light of "new facts" based on the mass rally held Thursday to commemorate the third anniversary of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri assassination. Moussa's media advisor Abul Alim al-Abiad confirmed that his boss would return to Beirut, but refused to set a schedule for renewing the secretary general's mission. An-Nahar said Moussa would return to Beirut on Feb. 21, five days before a scheduled parliamentary session to elect a president. Beirut, 17 Feb 08, 09:44

Barak: Israel Preparing to Confront Hizbullah Attack
Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said on Sunday that Lebanon's Hizbullah militia may attack Israel with Iranian and Syrian help to avenge the death of one of its senior leaders, an official said. "Hizbullah has decided... to blame Israel for it. Based on that, we can assume that Hizbullah will try to retaliate in Israel or abroad," Barak told the Israeli cabinet, according to a senior official who attended the meeting. "It might do so with the help of Iran and Syria," he said, adding that "Israel has no interest in an escalation, but in view of recent events we are preparing accordingly." Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Thursday declared "open war" on Israel after his top commander Imad Mughniyeh was killed by a car bomb in the Syrian capital Damascus. Israel celebrated the death of Mughniyeh -- believed to have been behind a string of deadly attacks in the 1980s and 1990s against Israeli and U.S. targets -- but denied any involvement in the killing. "(Mughniyeh) was responsible for killing hundreds of civilians and soldiers of many nationalities over the past decade. I don't think Syria, Hizbullah and Iran have a clear picture of who was behind" his death, he added. Israel has been on high alert since Nasrallah accused it of attacking his movement "outside our natural battleground," widely viewed as an implicit threat to attack Israeli targets abroad. Israel and Hizbullah fought to a bloody stalemate in the summer of 2006 when Israel invaded southern Lebanon in a bid to retrieve two soldiers seized by Hizbullah fighters in a deadly cross-border raid.(AFP) Beirut, 17 Feb 08, 13:43

Barak: Iran, Syria may help Hizbullah attack Israelis abroad
By JPOST.COM STAFF
The Defense Ministry has been instructed to raise its alert level due to concerns that Hizbullah will target Israelis and Jews abroad with the aid of Iran and Syria in retaliation for the death of Hizbullah operations chief Imad Mughniyeh, Defense Minister Ehud Barak announced on Sunday.
Speaking at the weekly cabinet meeting, Barak said Mughniyeh was responsible for the deaths of hundreds of civilians and soldiers over dozens of years in numerous countries worldwide. He estimated that it would take time for Hizbullah to replace him.
Syria and Hizbullah still don't have a clear picture of who assassinated Mughniyeh, Barak went on, but that hasn't stopped Hizbullah from pointing an accusing finger at Israel. Earlier, London's Sunday Times reported that at the time of his assassination, allegedly carried out by the Mossad, Mughniyeh was cooperating with the Syrians in planning an attack against Israeli targets to avenge an IAF strike on a Syrian site in September 2007, according to "informed Israeli sources."
The paper quoted "Israeli intelligence sources" as saying that Mossad agents had replaced the headrest of the driver's seat in Mughiyeh's SUV with another headrest containing a small cache of explosives. Israel, according to the Times report, believes that Mughniyeh was also charged with rehabilitating Hizbullah's arsenal after the blows it suffered during the Second Lebanon War. Mughniyeh allegedly rearmed the group with Iranian Fateh 110 rockets, which can reach Tel Aviv and, according to the report, may also be capable of delivering a chemical payload. According to a source quoted by the report, Mossad Chief Meir Dagan was summoned by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to Jerusalem on the day after the assassination, where he was "complimented by his boss" on a job well done and told that his contract at the helm of the intelligence agency would be extended through the end of 2009.

Rights group: Israel broke law with use of cluster bombs in Lebanon
The Associated PressPublished: February 17, 2008
WELLINGTON, New Zealand: Human Rights Watch said Sunday that Israel breached international law when it bombed southern Lebanon with cluster weapons during its campaign against Hezbollah in 2006.
Israel said it used the weapons in "built up areas" only if they contained rocket or missile launching sites, and only after warning area residents.
New York-based Human Rights Watch demanded an independent inquiry to determine whether individual Israeli commanders "bear responsibility for war crimes."
A 131-page report, "Flooding South Lebanon: Israel's Use of Cluster Munitions in Lebanon in July and August 2006," claimed Israel violated international humanitarian law with hundreds of "indiscriminate and disproportionate cluster munitions attacks on Lebanon."
It released the report ahead of the opening Monday of a 120-nation conference in New Zealand's capital, Wellington, on a proposed convention to ban cluster munitions that cause unacceptable harm to civilians.
The convention was launched by Austria, Ireland, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, Peru and the Holy See at a conference in Oslo, Norway, last year. Some 41 of the 76 states in the world that stockpile cluster munitions are taking part in the negotiations, along with a majority of the weapon producers.
The United States, Russia, China and Israel — all important producers and stockpilers of cluster bombs — oppose a ban on the weapons and have blocked efforts to negotiate one at the United Nations.
At a news conference Sunday, Human Rights Watch said Israel had rained as many as 4.6 million submunitions, or cluster bomblets, across southern Lebanon — mostly in the final days of the war.
The report's lead author, Bonnie Docherty, said the United Nations must investigate whether Israel deliberately targeted civilians with the munitions.
"Ninety percent of the (bombing) strikes occurred in the last three days (of the war when) Israel knew a cease-fire was imminent," she told reporters.
"Many, many of those strikes occurred on towns and villages across South Lebanon. Munitions left behind by those attacks continue to kill civilians today," she said.
Steve Goose, director of the Arms division at Human Rights Watch, said unexploded cluster "bomblets ... have killed and maimed almost 200 people since the war ended.""The Lebanon story is just the latest example of something we've have seen over and over again: Whenever cluster munitions are used, large numbers of civilians get killed and injured," Goose said.
Israel said Sunday it had used cluster munitions in southern Lebanon in direct response to Hezbollah launching more than 4,000 rockets and missiles against Israeli civilians — "as well as cluster munitions.""Israel's operations were directed against legitimate military objectives. The majority of cluster munitions used by Israel were directed against areas which were not built up. In those cases where cluster munitions were used against built-up areas, it was done toward rocket/missile launching sites and only after numerous warnings were given to the local population," said Arye Mekel, an Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman.
"The use of cluster munitions is not prohibited under international law. Like other weapons, its use is subject to the laws of war," he said.
He noted that Israel had voluntarily handed to the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon maps and data covering areas "suspected of containing explosive remnants of war, including cluster munitions."An Israeli report on the 2006 war in Lebanon released last month raised questions about the army's use of the weapons, noting a lack of "operational discipline, oversight and control."

Decoding Lebanese Paranoia
Hussein Malla/Associated Press
By ROBERT F. WORTH
Published: February 17, 2008
BEIRUT, Lebanon
AFTER the notorious Hezbollah commander Imad Mugniyah was killed in a mysterious car bombing in the Syrian capital, Damascus, on Tuesday, a storm of accusation and counteraccusation quickly arose back here in Lebanon. Hezbollah, the radical Lebanese Shiite movement, predictably blamed Israel. Some Western-allied political figures blamed Syria, their own favorite nemesis. Still others saw the killing as the first part of a sinister deal between Syria, Israel and the United States, in which Lebanon would be the loser. It is a familiar ritual in the Middle East, and especially here in divided Lebanon. No one here can point to any real evidence in the death of Mr. Mugniyah, a famously ruthless and elusive figure. No one has taken responsibility for killing him.
But the accusations proliferate. And while they may look to outsiders like plausible explanations, they are often seen here as something different: a kind of road map to the accusers’ social and political identities, pointing to their fears, enemies, friends and, perhaps, their next moves.
“There is a tendency for each group to see these acts of violence as messages, usually aimed at them,” said Oussama Safa, the director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies in Beirut. “It has become part of the cultural idiom here.”
And so, too, are the accusations. More than mere rhetoric, they quickly congeal into conflicting versions of history, often with bloody consequences.
For Hezbollah, blaming Israel for the death of one of its commanders was inevitable: fighting the Jewish state was Hezbollah’s founding mission and remains its full-time preoccupation. Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, the group’s leader, has himself been in hiding since 2006, fearing assassination by Israel. As Sheik Nasrallah angrily reminded the crowd at an emotional funeral for Mr. Mugniyah on Thursday, Israel has killed many Hezbollah leaders in the past, including Sheik Nasrallah’s own predecessor, Sheik Abbas Musawi, in 1992.
But Mr. Mugniyah’s killing took on special overtones, because he was not killed in Lebanon or Israel but in Syria. Sheik Nasrallah accused Israel of going “outside the battleground,” and swore to retaliate. “You crossed the borders,” he said. “Zionists, if you want an open war, let it be an open war anywhere.”
To Sheik Nasrallah’s listeners, that threat contained an implicit evocation of Hezbollah’s own history, and of Mr. Mugniyah’s special role in it. In the 1980s and 1990s, Hezbollah was an insurgent group, using suicide bombings, hijackings, and kidnappings to achieve its goals. Mr. Mugniyah was accused of planning attacks on an Israeli embassy and community center in Argentina in 1992 and 1994.
Since then, the group has narrowed its military role to border struggles with Israel, and has become one of Lebanon’s major political parties. By accusing Israel of violating the rules of their conflict, Sheik Nasrallah seemed to suggest that Hezbollah might return to its own more ruthless past.
He also conveniently ignored the fact that Mr. Mugniyah was killed in Damascus, where the Syrian regime — one of Hezbollah’s key patrons — is thought to exercise tight surveillance and control.
For other Lebanese political figures, that fact was the key to the killing. No sooner had word of Mr. Mugniyah’s death spread on Wednesday than members of the Western-backed March 14 alliance began to suggest that Syria might have been behind it.
This, too, was unsurprising: the March 14 group takes its name from the momentous protests in 2005 that forced Syria to leave Lebanon after decades of occupation. Its leaders have consistently accused Syria in the many bombings and assassinations here in the past three years.
But this time they had something different in mind. Syria was Mr. Mugniyah’s ally, and, in their theory, would not have killed him (or allowed him to be killed) without getting something in return.
“The Syrians gave the Israelis a very big gift with the killing of Mugniyah,” said Samir Franjieh, a member of the March 14 group, which controls the majority in Parliament.
They may have done so, he said, in an effort to avert the threat posed by an international tribunal investigating the recent assassinations in Lebanon, which they fear will implicate Syria’s leadership. Their theory, as framed by Mr. Franjieh, suggests that the Israelis — in gratitude for Syrian help or acquiescence in getting rid of Mr. Mugniyah — would use their influence with the United States and Europe to quash or limit the tribunal.
Walid Jumblatt, another March 14 leader, echoed that thought.
“The Syrians did it, in exchange for Lebanon, or in exchange for the tribunal,” he said. “That’s what I’m afraid of.”
Given the strong support of the United States and Europe for the tribunal, such a sellout seems far-fetched. But the identity of the Lebanese majority is rooted in fear of Syrian designs. Like Hezbollah with Israel, they are quick to invoke history to explain their sense of vulnerability. In 1991, the United States, grateful for Syria’s support in the first Gulf War coalition, gave its tacit approval as the Syrian president Hafez al-Assad crushed his enemies in Lebanon and began a decade and a half of Syrian domination there.
Last November, some Lebanese feared a repeat of that episode after the United States invited Syria to a conference in Annapolis, Md., seeking an Israeli-Palestinian peace. They saw the invitation as the start of a deal to grant the Syrians control over Lebanon in exchange for help in resolving the Palestinian conflict.
In that case, the fears had real consequences. Leaders of the March 14 group made a sudden conciliatory gesture and agreed to accept a presidential candidate who had been favored by the Syrian-backed opposition.
But when Mr. Mugniyah was killed last week, fear was not their only response. Speaking to a vast crowd of supporters gathered in Martyrs’ Square on Thursday, Mr. Jumblatt reveled in the possibility that Syria and Hezbollah — his two major foes — were at each others’ throats.
“Look what happened yesterday,” he told the crowd. Syria and its allies in Hezbollah “are tearing each other apart,” he said. “They are eating each other.”

Ending the War in Iraq
Obama Has More Faith in the UN, Iran & Syria Than U.S. Soldiers in Iraq
By Aaron Goldstein Saturday, February 16, 2008
With his sweep of the Democratic primaries in the Potomac earlier this week, Barack Obama has more pledged delegates than Hillary Clinton. The Democratic nomination is now his to lose. Besides his charisma, what has so attracted Democratic Party activists to Obama is his pledge to end the War in Iraq. A war he believes never should have been fought in the first place. Well, hindsight is 20-20. But this then begs the question how Obama would end the war in Iraq?
Obama, who has been oft criticized for lacking specifics, did deliver a major speech on Iraq on September 12, 2007 while campaigning in Clinton, Iowa (I kid you not). That speech serves as the foundation of his policy in Iraq. (Here & Here)
Having read Obama’s policy concerning Iraq, I find myself troubled both by its premise and its prescription. It is titled, “Turning the Page in Iraq.” It would be more aptly named, “Turning our Back on Iraq.” Obama’s prescription of withdrawal is predicated on the premise that the surge is not working and that the sole purpose of the surge was to enable Iraq’s leaders to reconcile. This is simply wrong.
The surge is actually rooted in six fundamental elements as spelled out by the Bush Administration. First, let the Iraqis lead. Second, help the Iraqis protect the population. Third, isolate extremists. Fourth, create space for political progress. Fifth, diversify political and economic efforts. Finally, situate the strategy in a regional approach. (Whitehouse) Have all these elements been achieved in the space of one year? No. Have some of these elements been achieved and is Iraq a better place now for it? Yes. Obama ignores the fact there was an Iraqi led initiative to secure Baghdad known as Operating Imposing Law. This operation led to a significant decline in violence by insurgents. Don’t get me wrong. Baghdad is still a dangerous place. But the streets are no longer deserted and Iraqis are again beginning to enjoy the café nightlife that was unthinkable a year ago.
The surge has helped to isolate extremists. There is no question the surge was a significant factor in the Mahdi Army declaring a six month ceasefire last August (although one wonders what happens once the ceasefire expires on February 29th.)
The surge has helped to create space for political progress. To be sure, watching the Iraqi Parliament work has been about as exasperating as eating Jello with chopsticks. But just this week, the Iraqi Parliament passed laws concerning a general amnesty for thousands of Iraqi prisoners and defining the powers of the provinces. Consequently, with respect to the latter piece of legislation, there will be provincial elections throughout Iraq on October 1, 2008 (save for the Kurdish region which has a well established government). Earlier this month, the Iraqi Parliament also passed a de-Baathification law which permits 38,000, mostly low-level, Baath Party members to work again for the Iraqi government.
Let’s be clear. The Iraqi Parliament has a long, long way to go. It still must, amongst other things, pass an oil revenue sharing law as well as a measure to disarm the various Shiite and Sunni militias still operating throughout Iraq. This will not be easy. But the Iraqis are trying to resolve matters in a civil and democratic manner. Yet this is not good enough for Obama who wants to throw the baby out with the Baath water so to speak.
If elected President, Obama wants to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq by the end of 2009. Only a residual force would remain. Obama argues that withdrawal is the best means to ensure the Iraqi government acts. According to “Turning The Page in Iraq”, “Drawing down our troop presence is the best way to finally apply real pressure on the Iraqi government to make the political accommodations necessary to heal the nation’s sectarian rifts, and to take on more responsibility for providing security to their people.”
So who fills the void in Iraq once U.S. troops are withdrawn? The United Nations, Iran and Syria would.
Obama proposes the UN lead a Constitutional Convention. He dismisses the 2005 Iraqi Constitution as nothing more than “the product of a Kurdish-Shiite deal.” Well, this is largely because the Sunnis boycotted the process back then. Obama proposes the UN Constitutional Convention “would not adjourn until national reconciliation is reached and contentious questions such as federalism, oil revenue sharing, and de-Baathification are resolved.” Under those conditions, the UN could be in Iraq for, say, 100 years. One could also say it is reason enough not to give Obama four years in the White House.
But let’s get this straight. Obama has unlimited patience with the UN but less than a year into the surge his patience with U.S. troops is exhausted? Sure Obama states “our troops have performed brilliantly”. So what makes Obama think the UN will succeed where U.S. troops haven’t? Suppose UN facilities are targeted as the UN Headquarters were in Iraq back in August 2003 killing 22 people including Sergio Vieira de Mello, then UN Secretary General Kofi Annan’s special representative in Iraq. After a second bombing a month later, the UN withdrew from Iraq after the attack and has only maintained a small presence since. Would the UN end its Constitutional Convention if attacked again?
But let us assume for a moment UN facilities are not attacked and they remain in Iraq. If Obama believes the presence of U.S. troops is a disincentive for the Iraqi Parliament to resolve matters what makes Obama think a UN Constitutional Convention will hurry Iraqi lawmakers? The UN has had a peacekeeping mission in Cyprus since 1964. The Greek and Turkish Cypriots seem quite happy not to resolve their differences.
In addition to the UN Constitutional Convention, Obama also supports “a diplomatic surge.” This diplomatic surge would see Obama “press Iran, Syria, and Saudi Arabia to stem the flow of foreign fighters, arms, and financial resources into Iraq.” Obama also pledges he will be “a tough negotiator with Syria and Iran, sending a clear message that they need to stop meddling in Iraq’s affairs.” I am sure that Ahmadinejad and Asaad are thinking, “Obama’s going to stop us from meddling in Iraq. Oh yeah, you and what army? Oh, that’s right. There is no army because Obama withdrew it.” Obama might as well send House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to be his envoy for all the good it would do.
But like many liberal Democrats, Obama takes the “blame America” view of the world. “America’s standing has suffered,” said Obama, “Our diplomacy has been compromised by a refusal to talk to people we don’t like.” Well, if the United States is so averse to talking to Iran why was it that Iran postponed meeting with the U.S. concerning Iraq as did it on February 14th without giving any explanation? Iran also backed out of talks with the United States in December 2007. Yet, in Obama’s eyes, it is America’s reputation that is in tatters.
How much faith does Obama place in Ahmadinejad who has declared that Israel should be wiped off the map? How much confidence does Obama have in Iran as it sent its Foreign Affairs Minister, Mohammed Mottaki, to attend the funeral of Hezbollah operative Imad Mughniyah? This is the same Mughniyah who was one of the masterminds of the October 1983 bombings of the U.S. military barracks in Beirut that killed 241 U.S. Marines. How much confidence does Obama have in Asaad not meddling in Iraqi affairs when Syria won’t stop meddling in the affairs of Lebanon?
There will come a day when U.S. troops will leave Iraq. But to do so under anything other than our own terms would render both the United States and Iraq weaker for it. Whatever reservations conservatives have about John McCain, it is impossible to imagine McCain willing to leave Iraq in the hands of the United Nations, Iran and Syria. During a speech in Madison, Wisconsin, the night of his Potomac triumph, Obama declared, “John McCain won’t be able to say that I ever supported this war in Iraq, because I opposed it from the beginning.” For that matter, John McCain won’t be able to say that Barack Obama wants to win the War in Iraq either.