LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS
BULLETIN
February 01/08
Bible Reading of the day.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Mark 4,21-25.
He said to them, "Is a lamp brought in to be placed under a bushel basket or
under a bed, and not to be placed on a lampstand?
For there is nothing hidden except to be made visible; nothing is secret except
to come to light. Anyone who has ears to hear ought to hear." He also told them,
"Take care what you hear. The measure with which you measure will be measured
out to you, and still more will be given to you. To the one who has, more will
be given; from the one who has not, even what he has will be taken away."
Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
Warning light on Kosovo.The Washington Times.By John Bolton.
January 31/08
Alas, it looks like Shiites vs. the
rest-By Michael
Young-January 31/08
Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for January 31/08
UN Concerned Over Lebanon-Naharnet
Lebanon Covered in White-Naharnet
Winograd Report on 2006 War on Lebanon Faults Army, Spares Olmert-Naharnet
Hizbullah Reiterates Victory after
Winograd Report-Naharnet
Facts and Figures from Inquiry into 2006 Lebanon war-Naharnet
Initial Testimony: Gunshots Came from Shiyah-Naharnet
Iran for a Solution which 'Ensure the rights of all Lebanese Parties-Naharnet
Moussa Warns: Elect a President or Face Instability-Naharnet
Kuwaiti Speaker: Hands Off Lebanese Affairs-Naharnet
Minister Murr: Riots Threaten Stability and Security-Naharnet
Saniora Stresses the Importance of Restraint in Current Situation-Naharnet
Syria Welcomes Suleiman's Phone Call to Assad-Naharnet
Sarkozy's Gulf gambit promises key changes in the region-Daily
Star
Israeli prime
minister mostly unscathed by Lebanon war report-AP
Moussa warns Lebanese rivals to reconcile while they
still can-Daily Star
Winograd lets Olmert off the hook-Daily
Star
Lebanon's rough ride toward 'normal' politics-Daily
Star
Investigators question witnesses of all kinds in
probe of riots-Daily Star
Union for Lebanon blames vacuum for unrest-Daily
Star
LF to take media outlets to court over riot reports-Daily
Star
Austrian foreign minister due in Beirut Sunday-AFP
UK group slams bid to ban Lebanese journalist-Daily
Star
Sfeir urges sects to 'cooperate' in rescuing nation-Daily
Star
Saniora Stresses the Importance of Restraint in Current Situation-Naharnet
Cairo turns page on censorship of
book fair-AFP
Documentary on Abu Ghraib outrages to premiere at
Berlin Film Festival next month-AFP
Ruins of 7,000-year-old city found at Egyptian
oasis-AFP
The sounds of Public Enemy re-routed through Burj
al-Barajneh-Daily
Star
U.N. Concerned Over Lebanon
The United Nations political chief and several
Security Council permanent representatives have voiced concern over the
presidential vacuum in Lebanon and the recent incidents that have threatened the
country's stability. "Lebanon's leaders must act now to find a way to bridge
their positions and return the country to normal political activity"
Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs Lynn Pascoe said during a briefing
to the Council Wednesday.Lebanon has been without a head of state since
President Emile Lahoud's term ended in November.
Pascoe also voiced U.N. concern over Sunday's protests in the Shiyah district of
Beirut's southern suburbs that left eight people dead and the assassination last
Friday of top intelligence officer Capt. Wissam Eid.
He said the recent troubles in the Middle East illustrate "the gap between the
aspirations of the political process and the grim realities of the situation on
the ground."He said the current crisis in the Gaza Strip is overshadowing
efforts to find a long-term peace settlement to the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict. French Ambassador Jean-Maurice Ripert, in comments after Pascoe's
briefing on conditions in the Middle East, said the security situation in
Lebanon has recently deteriorated and latest incidents show there is a campaign
to "destabilize" the country. He also said the culprits in the killing of Eid
should be brought to justice and an investigation into Sunday's incidents should
reveal those involved in the shootings on protestors.
On Lebanon's presidential vacuum, Ripert reiterated his country's support for
the three-point Arab plan which called for the election of Army Chief Gen.
Michel Suleiman president, the formation of a national unity cabinet in which no
one party has veto power and the adoption of a new electoral law. In his
statement, British ambassador John Sawers said his country was "alarmed" by the
deteriorating security situation in Lebanon.
"It remains essential that political divisions are reconciled and that an
election of a president is allowed to proceed without outside interference. We
welcome the recent efforts of the Arab League. We look to all those with
influence to use it responsibly and for the common good of all Lebanese," he
said. Acting U.S. ambassador Alejandro D. Wolff, in his turn, reiterated support
for Premier Fouad Saniora's "legitimate and democratically-elected" government
and urged the immediate election of a head of state "in accordance with
Lebanon's constitution."He also told members of the Council that the Bush
administration appreciated "the U.N.'s efforts to rapidly establish the Special
Tribunal for Lebanon, which will hold accountable those responsible for the
assassination" of ex-Premier Hariri and related crimes. "We urge members of the
Council and U.N. member states to provide financial assistance to allow the
Tribunal to proceed with its important work," Wolff said. He urged "Syria, Iran,
and their allies to end their interference" in Lebanon's internal offers and
stop obstructing the country's "democratic process." Beirut, 31 Jan 08, 11:40
Sfeir urges sects to
'cooperate' in rescuing nation
Patriarch warns of 'hidden powers'
By Maroun Khoury
Daily Star correspondent
Thursday, January 31, 2008
BKIRKI: Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir on Wednesday urged the
Lebanese to unite, saying that "hidden powers are working on stirring chaos in
Lebanon." "There are hands working to fragmentize the country and all its
institutions, including the presidency, the government and Parliament," Sfeir
told a delegation from the Federation of Iqlim al-Kharroub Municipalities that
visited him in Bkirki.
"There are those who are also working to divide the Lebanese Army as well as
religious institutions," the patriarch added. Sfeir also received a visit from a
delegation from the Doctors for Peace Association on Wednesday.
Sfeir urged the Lebanese to unite as only the people could "rescue" the nation.
He said Lebanon's 18 sects should "consort" and "cooperate" so that the country
could live in peace.
His comments came after nine people were killed in protests in the Shiyyah
district of Beirut's southern suburbs on Sunday. The demonstration against power
cuts quickly degenerated into street violence despite the army's attempts to
contain the riots.
The Higher Shiite Islamic Council on Tuesday denounced the "crime" committed
Sunday against demonstrators who were staging "legal and peaceful" protests in
Shiyyah.
Unidentified snipers fired at protesters and army troops Sunday afternoon at the
Mar Mikhael intersection in the southern suburb of Shiyyah. Nine people were
killed and about 22 others wounded.
The council, in a statement issued after an extraordinary session, said "what
has been committed against some of our children is unbearable."
The council's statement added that "peaceful and legal activities ... should not
be confronted with live bullets, violence and killing."
"The brutality of the sinful aggression and ... crime committed against the
southern suburbs was beyond imagination," it said.
The statement warned that the "the political future hinges on the level of
serious and responsible handling of the crime and the culprits."
The statement also urged the army command to "shoulder its responsibility by
speeding up the investigations aimed at detecting those who opened fire at
unarmed civilians."
Senior Shiite cleric Sayyed Mohammad Hussein Fadlallah also demanded that the
Lebanese Army launch an inquiry into Sunday's riots.
The Lebanese Army "must clarify as soon as possible" the events "so that matters
will not escalate as a result of the state of political turmoil and public
discontent," Fadlallah said in a statement. "We fear that matters might spin out
of control because of the state of political and security chaos."
On Wednesday, Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and Grand Mufti Mohammad Rashid
Qabbani telephoned Fadlallah to offer condolences for the death of the nine
people who were killed on Sunday.
"The overall situation in Lebanon as well as recent developments and ways to
contain public anger were discussed during the phone conversations," a statement
issued by Fadlallah's media office said.
Moussa warns Lebanese rivals to reconcile while they still can
Compiled by Daily Star staff
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Arab League chief Amr Moussa warned Wednesday that should the Arab initiative
fail to resolve the impasse in Lebanon, international powers could intervene.
Moussa, who was in Kuwait for a meeting with senior officials, told reporters
that any further delay in electing a new president will harm the country's
stability.
"It is essential that a new president is elected as soon as possible. Any delay
in electing a president is a blow to Lebanon's stability," Moussa said. "It is
vital to rescue Lebanon from becoming a scene for regional conflicts," he added.
"The [Arab League] initiative still has a good chance to succeed," Moussa said,
"but the Arab and regional situation has to help us make more progress."
"I call on the leaders of Lebanon not to miss that chance," Moussa said, adding
he was in daily contact with them and that he might travel to Beirut before the
election date. Moussa warned that if the Lebanese do not stop their political
bickering, they will become "a toy in the hands of many powers."
Also Wednesday, Syrian Information Minister Mohsen Bilal said his country would
welcomed the election of Lebanese Armed Forces commander General Michel Suleiman
as president. He said the army chief recently telephoned Syrian President Bashar
Assad, adding that such contacts are welcome.
Suleiman "also called the [Syrian] defense minister and the chief of staff. We
welcome these calls," Bilal said, adding that Suleiman's ties with the Syrian
leadership were "very longstanding" and fraternal.
Bilal said Damascus welcomed the statement issued on Sunday after a meeting of
Arab foreign ministers in Cairo which called for Suleiman to be elected
president during the February 11 parliamentary session.
"Syria wants Lebanon to make progress toward an overall settlement," the
minister said. He also condemned the riots Sunday in the Shiite southern suburbs
of Beirut in which nine people were killed and dozens wounded as protests
degenerated into clashes.
"What happened in Beirut was painful and sad," Bilal said, denouncing the
"snipers and assassins ... of young people who were protesting against power
cuts."
Locally, Sunday's tragic events continued to dominate the political scene. Prime
Minister Fouad Siniora telephoned the heads of several Christian and Muslim
sects, describing Sunday's events as a "nightmare" that had befallen everyone in
the country and must not be repeated.
The premier also called for an end to provocations through the media. "We want
to raise a new generation to see them carry the banner of development and
progress ... The families of those who fell did not raise their children to see
them fall in the streets or come to such a sad end, which can never be accepted
or allowed to be repeated," Siniora said.
Among those contacted by the prime minister to discuss the riots were the head
of the Higher Shiite Council, Sheikh Abdel-Amir Qabalan; Maronite Patriarch
Nasrallah Butros Sfeir; Grand Mufti Sheikh Mohammad Rashid Qabbani; Beirut
Orthodox Archbishop Elias Aoude, senior Shiite cleric Sayyed Mohammad Hussein
Fadlallah and Jbeil Maronite Bishop Beshara al-Rai.
Siniora commended the positions taken by the Higher Shiite Council and the
leaderships of Amal and Hizbullah in calling for restraint and warning of the
risk of the country plunging into strife.
"The state's institutions are guardians of its citizens," Siniora said. "We are
in a democratic country and our institutions are transparent and are committed
to operating within the law and enforcing it, ready to own up to mistakes when
they are found and hold those culpable accountable."
The premier called on the Lebanese to await the results of investigations being
conducted by the army and the judiciary.
Defense Minister Elias Murr, who returned from abroad where he was undergoing
medical treatment, offered his condolences Wednesday to the families of the
protesters who were slain. He said what happened Sunday targeted the army and
citizens equally and threatens security and stability and only serves Lebanon's
enemies.
"I consider those victims as the martyrs of Lebanon and the army. The government
did well to declare them martyrs of the nation and that it is responsible for
their families' welfare," Murr said.
Democratic Gathering leader MP Walid Jumblatt telephoned Suleiman Wednesday to
state his "total support" for the military establishment and express his
confidence that investigations into Sunday's riots would be complete. He pointed
to the need to uncover all details behind the tragic events.
Jumblatt praised the role of the army which he said had once again proven its
concern for the safety of civilians, pointing to battles around the Nahr
al-Bared Palestinian refugee camp in the North of the country last summer. He
said the army's record shows clearly that it stands at equal distance from all
the Lebanese as it preserves civil peace and internal stability.
Speaker Nabih Berri on Wednesday received cables from Saudi Ambassador
Abdel-Aziz Khoja, French Charge d'Affaires Andre Parant and Beirut Maronite
Archbishop Bulos Matar, among others, offering condolence on the deaths of those
killed during the riots.
Also Wednesday, Parliamentary majority leader MP Saad HaririSaad-Hariri-Profile
Sep-07 held meetings with both Khoja and Jordanian Ambassador Ziad al-Majali.
According to Hariri's office, the topics discussed included bilateral relations
and internal developments in Lebanon. - With agencies
Investigators question witnesses of all kinds in probe of riots
Judicial sources say process could last for 'weeks'
Daily Star staff
Thursday, January 31, 2008
BEIRUT: Investigators looking into Sunday's riots in the Beirut suburb of
Shiyyah, which left nine dead and dozens wounded, say they have taken statements
from witnesses, victims, individuals detained by the army, and journalists who
were in the area as the event unfolded.
State Prosecutor Saeed Mirza met investigators Wednesday morning to review the
progress of the inquiry into events around the Mar Mikhael intersection. The
meeting included Advocate General Jocelyn Tabet, the government representative
at the Military Tribunal, Judge Jean Fahd, and military police chief Brigadier
Nabil Ghafry.
The Lebanese Broadcasting Corporation on Wednesday quoted unidentified sources
as saying that after closer scrutiny, it was determined that the snipers seen on
nearby rooftops by witnesses and in television footage were in fact army troops.
A security source told The Daily Star that the field commander of the Lebanese
Army's post in Mar Mikhael at the time of the riots was a Shiite from Jbeil,
indicating that that the officer would therefore have no reason for sectarian
bias against protesters from the neighborhood, which is mostly Shiite. The
source, added, however, that the officer was likely to bear some of the
responsibility for any misconduct that investigations might reveal on the part
of his men.
The source said the constant presence of army troops in the streets, performing
a vital security role, was not the correct role for the army, adding that the
Internal Security Forces would be upgrading their capabilities to better deal
with riots in future.
The source said news photographers and camera crews were questioned "informally"
by investigators who would compare their accounts of events with those of other
witnesses in the area, including individuals in custody, in order to get a
clearer picture of what really happened. A judicial sources said that while the
investigation into the riots has made "good progress," it will still take from
"days to weeks" to conclude.
According to a report in the An-Nahar newspaper, the army position in Mar
Mikhael was not in need of reinforcement when protesters arrived and started
burning tires in the middle of the intersection to block traffic. The army
informed protesters that it would start to remove the burning tires, the daily
said, adding that the demonstrators responded by pelting soldiers with stones,
injuring one and attempting to disarm another, while some protesters jumped on
top of military vehicles.
Soldiers fired in the air in a bid to disperse the crowd and prepared for
withdrawal from the area to safeguard their equipment, the paper said, when
withdrawing troops were shot at from the direction of Shiyyah, which caused the
army to respond, resulting in civilian casualties.
Meanwhile, Al-Akhbar newspaper said Hizbullah and the Amal movement were
awaiting the results of the investigation riots before announcing if there was
any change in their support for the candidacy of Lebanese Armed Forces commander
General Michel Suleiman.
The paper added that both parties would convey their concerns to Arab League
Secretary General Amr Moussa upon his return to Beirut. - The Daily Star
LF to take media outlets to court over riot reports
Thursday, January 31, 2008
BEIRUT: The Lebanese Forces (LF) said on Tuesday it will take legal action
against media outlets for reporting that the LF took part in Sunday's riots
which left nine people dead and dozens wounded. The outlets include the Free
Patriotic Movement and Al-Nashra Web sites, Al-Akhbar newspaper, and Al-Manar
and NewTV television stations. "The military investigation will reveal that
claims made about the responsibility of the LF and Ain Al-Rummaneh residents for
sniping activities during riots are untrue," a statement by the LF media office
said. It said launching accusations and drawing conclusions ahead of the results
of the army's investigation was "illegal behavior." "Such behavior is proof that
those undertaking it hold responsibility for Sunday's riots," the LF concluded,
ahead of the report.
Austrian foreign minister due in Beirut Sunday
By Agence France Presse (AFP)
Thursday, January 31, 2008
VIENNA: Austrian Foreign Minister Ursula Plassnik is set to embark this weekend
on a six-day tour of the Middle East Sunday, which will take her to Lebanon,
Israel, the Palestinian territories and Syria, her office announced on
Wednesday. "The aim is for the minister to get an exact picture of the situation
there and to strengthen contacts with the main leaders and players there,"
ministry spokesman Martin Gaertner said. During the trip, Plassnik will meet
Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, his Israeli counterpart, Ehud Olmert,
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Syrian President Bashar Assad. According
to a provisional program, Plassnik will be in Lebanon on Sunday and Monday and
will also meet parliamentary majority leader MP Saad HaririSaad-Hariri-Profile
Sep-07 , Speaker Nabih Berri and commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces General
Michel Suleiman. - AFP
UK group slams bid to ban Lebanese journalist
Daily Star staff
Thursday, January 31, 2008
BEIRUT: Leaders of the Stop the War Coalition in London fired back on Wednesday
after the head of the United Kingdom's main opposition Conservative Party called
on British authorities to ban a Lebanese journalist and academic from entry into
the country.
According to reports in the British media, Conservative Party leader David
Cameron on Tuesday branded Ibrahim Moussawi, a lecturer at the American
University of Beirut and the chief editor of the Hizbullah-affiliated weekly
newspaper Al-Intiqad, "dangerous and divisive," saying that he "should not be
allowed in this country." Moussawi has been invited by the Stop the War
Coalition to speak at the World Against War tour of eight cities across the
United Kingdom from February 28 through March 4. But Cameron has demanded that
British officials prevent Moussawi from attending the events, according to
reports by the Press Association, the country's national news agency, and
several major British publications.
"It's clear for reasons of our security that we must expel or refuse entry to
those who preach hate, pit one faith against another and divide our society,"
Cameron said during a meeting in London between representatives of his party and
a delegation from Germany's center-right Christian Democratic Union. "So I call
on the government to confirm that ... it will not repeat the mistake of last
December and make clear that Moussawi is not welcome in the UK."
Moussawi had attended another World Against War event in London on December 1.
Cameron had tried unsuccessfully in November to convince British authorities to
prevent him from attending that event as well.
During his speech on Tuesday, Cameron defended his calls for a ban by
reiterating an allegation that he first made in November that Moussawi is the
"head of Hizbullah's viciously anti-Semitic TV station, Al-Manar." However,
while Moussawi previously held the post of foreign news editor and host of a
political talk show at Al-Manar, he has not worked for the station for over two
years.
Leaders of the Stop the War Coalition said that Cameron's remarks would not
influence their decision to host Moussawi in the United Kingdom. "Any attempt to
stop anyone from coming to the anti-war tour would be absolutely wrong," Tony
Benn, the president of the Stop the War Coalition, told The Daily Star on
Wednesday.Chris Nineham, an officer of the Stop the War Coalition, also defended
the decision to invite Moussawi to the World Against War events.
"I don't know where Cameron is getting his information from but it's definitely
false information, because Ibrahim Moussawi, whenever he has spoken, has spoken
very passionately about the need for cooperation among people around the world,
people of different creeds and nationalities," Nineham told The Daily Star.
Nineham added a pledge that his group would continue to speak out "against the
war being conducted by [US President] George W. Bush and his allies in the
Middle East and beyond." - The Daily Star
Winograd lets Olmert off the hook
Commission of inquiry refuses to blame premier for failed war
Compiled by Daily Star staff
Thursday, January 31, 2008
A long-awaited state-ordered report said Wednesday that Israel's 2006 war with
Lebanon was a missed opportunity and a grave failure for the Jewish state, but
it spared Prime Minister Ehud Olmert a widely expected roasting over his
performance. The report stopped short of blaming Olmert personally for what many
Israelis saw as a stunning debacle that emboldened the country's enemies. A
harsher indictment could have threatened Olmert's rule and his stated goal of
making peace with the Palestinians within a year.
The head of a five-member investigative panel, retired Judge Eliyahu Winograd,
described a UN-brokered cease-fire as an "achievement for Israel" and said
Olmert, in ordering a widely criticized last-minute ground offensive, acted "out
of a strong and sincere perception" of what he thought was "Israel's interest."
The final report stood in sharp contrast to a strongly worded interim report
last April which criticized Olmert personally for "severe failure" in "hastily"
going to war.
After Wednesday's 629-page report was hand-delivered to Olmert an hour before a
news conference making it public, the prime minister's office was "breathing a
sigh of relief," Olmert's spokesman Jacob Galanty was quoted as saying.
In a statement, Olmert's office said he had begun reading the report and would
"study carefully" its conclusions.
"The prime minister relates to the final report of the Winograd commission ...
with full seriousness," the statement said.
Hizbullah said that the report confirmed its fighters had defeated Israel,
regarded as having the most powerful military in the Middle East.
"The Winograd report is an acknowledgment of Israel's responsibility for the war
and its defeat," Hizbullah MP Hussein Hajj Hassan told The Associated Press.
Hajj Hassan also said that the Winograd panel had caused Olmert to lose more
credibility than he already has.
"The Winograd report will further corner Olmert and put more pressure on him and
will make him lose the 2 percent left of credibility in front of Israelis," the
legislator said in a statement released by the National News Agency.
He added that the report would cause a "big polemic inside Israel between the
politicians and the army."
The report cited several failures committed by the Olmert government during the
34-day conflict, which killed more than 1,200 Lebanese, mostly civilians, and
more than 160 Israelis, mostly soldiers.
Winograd told a packed news conference in Occupied Jerusalem that Israel did not
win the war and the military did not provide an effective response to a
sustained barrage of rocket fire from Hizbullah.
"The overall image of the war was a result of a mixture of flawed conduct of the
political and military leadership ... of flawed performance by the military,
especially the ground forces, and of deficient Israeli preparedness," Winograd
said. "We found serious failings and flaws in the lack of strategic thinking and
planning."
He said that the committee had decided not to assign personal blame for the
war's shortcomings, preferring instead to search for ways to prevent similar
mistakes in the future.
"It should be stressed that the fact we refrained from imposing personal
responsibility does not imply that no such responsibility exists," he said.
A large section of the report was devoted to the last-minute offensive that
stirred great controversy because it was ordered just as the UN truce was about
to go into effect. Over 30 Israeli soldiers were killed in that fighting.
Winograd said the 11th-hour offensive "failed" in its mission, did not improve
Israel's position and that the army was not prepared for it.
However, he argued that the goals of the operation were legitimate: "There was
no failure in that decision in itself, despite its limited achievements and its
painful costs." He said both Olmert and his then-defense minister, Amir Peretz,
acted in "what they thought at the time was Israel's interest."
The war was launched by Israel on July 12, 2006, after Hizbullah killed three
Israeli soldiers and captured two others in a cross-border raid. Olmert entered
the war with enormous support from the Israeli public, but his popularity
plunged after the campaign failed to achieve his two declared goals - winning
the soldiers' release and crushing Hizbullah. Despite a heavy Israeli aerial
campaign, Hizbullah rained nearly 4,000 rockets on northern Israel.
Since most of the army's wartime commanders, including the chief of staff and
defense minister at the time, have already resigned, the big mystery on
Wednesday was how the premier would fare.
Olmert was able to beat off calls for his resignation after the interim report
was released. This time, Labor Party leader Ehud Barak, the former premier who
now serves as defense minister, is under pressure to deliver on his promise to
push for Olmert's resignation or advance elections.
If Barak pulls Labor's 19-member faction out of the coalition, Olmert will no
longer have a parliamentary majority and could be forced to call an election.
His coalition now controls 67 of Parliament's 120 seats.
Polls show Olmert trailing far behind Benjamin Netanyahu, leader of the hawkish
Likud Party. A Netanyahu victory would bode poorly for US President George W.
Bush's goal of brokering a Mideast peace accord before leaving office next
January.
Opposition lawmakers, from supporters of peace talks to hard-line critics,
insisted that Olmert must go.
"The report paints a very dark picture," said Yossi Beilin, a dovish lawmaker.
"This should not have happened and the man who is responsible cannot continue in
his job."
Silvan Shalom, a Likud leader, called the report "an indictment of the gravest
sort" and urged Olmert to "announce new elections, to go to the people and let
the people say what they think." - Agencies
Warning light on Kosovo
The Washington Times
By John Bolton
January 31, 2008
The Bush administration has indicated its readiness to recognize a unilateral
declaration of independence by ethnic Albanians in Kosovo, a province of the
Republic of Serbia that since 1999 has been under United Nations administration
and NATO military control.
Such a declaration may take place as early as February. American recognition
would be over Serbia's objections, without a negotiated solution between Serbia
and Kosovo's Albanians, and without modification by the United Nations Security
Council of Resolution 1244, which reaffirms Serbian sovereignty in Kosovo while
providing for the province's "substantial autonomy." U.S. recognition may be
joined by that of some members of the European Union, which has been under heavy
diplomatic pressure from Washington, though several EU states and a number of
countries outside Europe have said they would reject such action.
Attempting to impose a settlement on Serbia would be a direct challenge to the
Russian Federation, which opposes any Kosovo settlement not accepted by
Belgrade.
We believe an imposed settlement of the Kosovo question and seeking to partition
Serbia's sovereign territory without its consent is not in the interest of the
United States. The blithe assumption of American policy — that the mere passage
of nine years of relative quiet would be enough to lull Serbia and Russia into
reversing their positions on a conflict that goes back centuries — has proven to
be naive in the extreme.
We believe U.S. policy on Kosovo must be re-examined without delay, and we urge
the Bush administration to make it clear that pending the results of such
re-examination it would withhold recognition of a Kosovo independence
declaration and discourage Kosovo's Albanians from taking that step.
Current U.S. policy relies on the unconvincing claim that Kosovo is "unique" and
would set no precedent for other troublespots. Of course every conflict has
unique characteristics. However, ethnic and religious minorities in other
countries already are signaling their intention to follow a Kosovo example. This
includes sizeable Albanian communities in adjoining areas of southern Serbia,
Montenegro, and especially the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, as well as
the Serbian portion of Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Recognition of Kosovo's independence without Serbia's consent would set a
precedent with far-reaching and unpredictable consequences for many other
regions of the world. The Kosovo model already has been cited by supporters of
the Basque separatist movement in Spain and the Turkish-controlled area of
northern Cyprus. Neither the Security Council nor any other international body
has the power or authority to impose a change of any country's borders.
Perhaps the most troubling aspect of the current policy is the dismissive
attitude displayed toward Russia's objections. Whatever disagreements the United
States may have with Moscow on other issues, and there are many, the United
States should not prompt an unnecessary crisis in U.S.-Russia relations. There
are urgent matters regarding which the United States must work with Russia,
including Iran's nuclear intentions and North Korea's nuclear capability. Such
cooperation would be undercut by American action to neutralize Moscow's
legitimate concerns regarding Kosovo.
If the U.S. moves forward with recognizing Kosovo, Moscow's passivity cannot be
taken for granted. It may have been one thing in 1999 for the United States and
NATO to take action against Yugoslavia over the objections of a weak Russia.
Today, it would be unwise to dismiss Russia's willingness and ability to assist
Serbia. On an issue of minor importance to the United States, is this a useful
expenditure of significant political capital with Russia?
Our Kosovo policy is hardly less problematic for our friends and allies in
Europe. While some European countries, notably members of the EU, may feel
themselves obligated to join us in recognizing Kosovo's independence, a number
of those countries would do so reluctantly because of Washington's inflexibility
and insistence. No more than the United States, Europe would not benefit from an
avoidable confrontation with Russia.
Even if Kosovo declared itself an independent state, it would be a dysfunctional
one and a ward of the international community for the indefinite future.
Corruption and organized crime are rampant. The economy, aside from
international largesse and criminal activities, is nonviable. Law enforcement,
integrity of the courts, protection of persons and property, and other
prerequisites for statehood are practically nonexistent. While these failures
are often blamed on Kosovo's uncertain status, a unilateral declaration of
independence recognized by some countries and rejected by many others would
hardly remedy that fact.
The result would be a new "frozen conflict," with Kosovo's status still
unresolved. The risk of renewed violence would further impede Kosovo's
development. Moreover, heightened tensions might require reinforcing the U.S.
presence in Kosovo when we can least afford it due to other commitments.
Serbia has made great strides in democratic development and economic
revitalization since the fall of the regime of Slobodan Milosevic. Current
policy with respect to Kosovo risks complete reversal of these gains. Faced with
a choice between Western partnership and defense of their sovereign territory
and constitution, there is little doubt what Serbia would decide.
The current positive trend could falter in the face of political radicalization
and possible internal destabilization. Serbia's relations with countries that
had recognized Kosovo would be impaired. Serbia would inevitably move closer to
Russia as its only protector.
We do not underestimate the difficulty and complexity of the Kosovo question nor
do we suggest the status quo can endure indefinitely. As with thorny questions
elsewhere, viable and enduring settlements should result from negotiation and
compromise. Such an outcome has been undermined by a U.S. promise to the Kosovo
Albanians that their demands will be satisfied if they remain adamant and no
agreement is reached with Belgrade. Such a promise cannot be justified by the
claim, often heard from proponents of independence, that the Albanians'
"patience" is running out, so independence must be granted without delay. This
is nothing less than appeasing a threat of violence.
A reassessment of America's Kosovo policy is long overdue. We hope a policy that
would set a very dangerous international precedent can still be averted if that
reassessment begins now. In the meantime, it is imperative that no unwarranted
or hasty action be taken that would turn what is now a relatively small problem
into a large one.
**John Bolton is former permanent U.S. representative to the United Nations.
Lawrence Eagleburger is former U.S. secretary of state. Peter Rodman is former
assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs.
Alas, it looks like Shiites vs.
the rest
By Michael Young
Daily Star staff
Thursday, January 31, 2008
The tragic and senseless killing of demonstrators in Shiyyah last Sunday was,
perhaps rightfully, seen as the opening shot in a new phase of the Lebanese
crisis that may turn much more violent. Who was responsible for the crimes still
remains unclear. But a cooler analysis of what took place shows an equally
disturbing reality: Sunday was a political disaster for the Shiite opposition
parties, Hizbullah and Amal, whose inability to achieve their political ends,
but also to retreat from the brink, makes the likelihood of further hostilities
much greater.
After the end of the summer 2006 war and the growing confrontation between the
parliamentary majority and the opposition, Hizbullah was always careful to place
non-Shiites in the forefront of the opposition's actions. While Sunni
representatives were anemic, Michel Aoun was, for a time, someone who added
credibility to the claim that the opposition was multiconfessional. That
argument took a severe beating in the street protests of January 23, 2007, when
the Aounists were unable to block roads for very long in Christian areas without
assistance from the army. By nightfall, even that endeavor had collapsed as
roads inside the Christian heartland and between Beirut and Tripoli were opened.
However, Aoun struck back in the Metn by-election last summer, when he managed
to get an unknown, Camille Khoury, elected to Parliament. It was a pyrrhic
victory to be sure. The vote tally confirmed that the general had lost a sizable
share of the Maronite vote; it showed that he relied heavily on a unified
Armenian electorate not particularly committed to the general personally, that
might vote very differently in the future; but it also showed that Aoun was not
out of the game, as some had predicted.
However, from the moment the March 14 coalition decided to support the army
commander, Michel Suleiman, as its candidate for president, Aoun's situation
changed dramatically. The general had calculated that a presidential vacuum
would enhance his chances of being elected, on the grounds that the thwarted
Christians would rally behind him. In fact the exact opposite has happened.
Provided with the option of a potentially strong Christian president in
Suleiman, displeased with Aoun's and his ally Suleiman Franjieh's wanton attacks
against Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir, never really convinced by
the Free Patriotic Movement's alliance with Hizbullah, the Christians, many of
whom voted for Aoun in 2005, have been steadily turning away from the general.
A sure sign of this is the behavior of that cunning weathervane of Christian
opinion, Michel Murr. In recent weeks Murr has mounted a very damaging internal
rebellion against Aoun. He has defended the Arab plan that seeks to bring
Suleiman to power as "good for the Christians," when Aoun's greatest fear is
that his community will embrace such a line and abandon his own candidacy. Murr
has defended Sfeir against Franjieh's attacks, even as most Aounist
parliamentarians who once made Bkirki their second home remained silent. And
Murr declared that the Metn would not participate in opposition street
demonstrations. This was an easy promise to make, because Aoun doesn't even have
the capacity to organize protests in areas his bloc members represent in
Parliament.
The thing is, Murr's attitude is popular among Christians. And last Sunday, Aoun
found himself in the worst possible situation when his ally Hizbullah and the
army - the one state institution in which the general still retains some
sympathy - clashed. For most Christians the choice was an easy one to make: They
sided with the army, particularly after demonstrators were reported to have
broken cars in the Christian quarter of Ain al-Rummaneh, where someone later
tossed a grenade that injured several people. In that context, Aoun's alliance
with Hizbullah now looks to many of his coreligionists like a bad idea, one that
might precipitate a civil conflict if the opposition pursues its protests, which
almost nobody seriously accepts as a demand for more electricity and cheaper
food.
But then put yourselves in Hizbullah's shoes, and those of the Amal movement.
With your Christian partner neutralized, suddenly the opposition looks mainly
like a Shiite phenomenon. Worse, it looks like a mainly Shiite phenomenon
directed against the Lebanese Army, a presidential election, and, by extension,
the Lebanese state itself. This is certainly not where Hizbullah's secretary
general, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, ever wanted to position himself; and it is, in
a word, suicidal for Shiites.
However, that apparently has not induced Hizbullah to backtrack. The Sunday
rioting was probably destined to discredit Suleiman. The opposition's follow-up
criticism of the army commander as someone who is no longer a consensus
presidential candidate lends credence to this theory. The Syrians have recently
been trying to peddle alternative candidates, via Qatar, to the French - which
Qatari and French denials in fact only confirmed. Suddenly, Hizbullah finds
itself in the uncomfortable position of blocking the election of a man many
Christians regard as a potentially strong leader, all because the party won't
abandon Aoun, who is on the political decline. And why won't it do so? Because
Hizbullah desperately needs the general as an ally in a future government.
Whether Hizbullah's calculations are mainly domestic, or are shaped to a large
extent by Syria is irrelevant. The party is, perhaps unintentionally, pushing
Shiites into a confrontation with the rest of Lebanese society to protect
itself, and nothing could be worse for the community. Hizbullah's inability to
achieve any of its political aims in the past 13 months has only increased its
sense of frustration, and the prospect of violence. The party is flailing, but
March 14 must at all costs help think of creative ways to prevent the Shiites
from succumbing to a new "Kerbala complex," a sense that victimhood is the
historical lot of their community.
In 1975, the Christians had their own Kerbala complex, one that dictated
stubbornness in the defense of Christian prerogatives, which at the time were
regarded as an existential red line. In the process they lost their control over
the state. Hizbullah has made defense of its weapons an existential red line for
the Shiite community. But Kerbala, as one astute analyst has put it, is hardly
something the Shiites should want to remember, as it ended in a massacre and
defeat. Nor is it something any Lebanese should want the Shiite community to
remember, or repeat.
The Christians learned to their detriment during the 1975-1990 conflict that a
war against the Sunnis was also in many ways a war against the Arab world. The
Christian community never recovered from that disaster. That's a lesson the
Shiite community should not have to learn.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR.