LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
September 13/08

Bible Reading of the day.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 6,39-42. And he told them a parable, "Can a blind person guide a blind person? Will not both fall into a pit? No disciple is superior to the teacher; but when fully trained, every disciple will be like his teacher. Why do you notice the splinter in your brother's eye, but do not perceive the wooden beam in your own? How can you say to your brother, 'Brother, let me remove that splinter in your eye,' when you do not even notice the wooden beam in your own eye? You hypocrite! Remove the wooden beam from your eye first; then you will see clearly to remove the splinter in your brother's eye.

Saint Cyril of Alexandria (380-444), Bishop, Doctor of the Church
Commentary on the Gospel of Luke, 6; PG 72, 601 (©Friends of Henry Ashworth)
The well trained disciple will be like his master
The blessed disciples were to be the spiritual guides and teachers of the whole world. It had therefore to be dearly seen by all that they held fast to the true faith. It was essential for them to be familiar with the gospel way of life, skilled in every good work, and to give teaching that was precise, salutary, and scrupulously faithful to the truth they themselves had long pondered, enlightened by the divine radiance. Otherwise they would be blind leaders of the blind. Those imprisoned in the darkness of ignorance can never lead others in the same sorry state to knowledge of the truth. Should they try, both would fall headlong into the ditch of the passions. To destroy the ostentatious passion of boastfulness and stop people from trying to win greater honor than their teachers, Christ declared: «The disciple is not above his teacher.» Even if some should advance so far as to equal their teachers in holiness, they ought to remain within the limits set by them, and follow their example. Paul also taught this when he said: «Be imitators of me as I am of Christ,» (1Cor 11,1). So then, if the Master does not judge, why are you judging? He came not to judge the world (Jn 12,47), but to take pity on it. What he is saying, then, is this: "If I do not pass judgment, neither must you, my disciple. You may be even more guilty of the faults of which you accuse another... «Why do you look for the speck in your brother's eye?»

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
From Russia with, well ... not much-By Tony Badran 12/09/08
Back from the brink-Al-Ahram Weekly 12/09/08
All the right moves: Turkey's charm offensive inspires hope -Daily Star12/09/08
Back to the Cold War in the Middle East? Maybe-By Konstantin Von Eggert 12/09/08

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for September 12/08
Bush to host Lebanon president September 25-AFP
US troops capture two suspects linked to Iranian-backed Shiite ...Xinhua
We must cast out terror TV-The Australian
Kantar in Lebanon demo for jailed 'Cuban Five' in US-AFP
Hezbollah Station Broadcasts With An Indonesian Satellite-Evening Bulletin
The Aridi Bomb: The Latest in a Series that Targeted Hawi, Kassir and Chidiac-Naharnet
Hizbullah-Iraq Busted, Two Members Arrested -Naharnet
Cracks seen in Lebanon's ruling coalition-Los Angeles Times
Gen. Qahwaji Calls for National Unity -Naharnet
Rival Clans Shoot it Out in Baalbek -Naharnet
Geagea in Bahrain-Naharnet
Qaida Representatives in Lebanon to Recruit Palestinians-Naharnet
Ban to Consult with Lebanon on When to Officially Start Tribunal's Work-Naharnet
Moussa in Beirut on Monday as Lebanon Awaits National Dialogue-Naharnet
Saniora: Aridi's Assassination Aims at Blocking Reconciliation and Stirring Intra-Druze Violence-Naharnet
EU Ready to Help Bring to Justice those who Carry Out Terrorist Acts-Naharnet
Spanish FM to Visit Lebanon as Part of Mideast Tour-Naharnet
LF Warns Against Attempts to Torpedo Reconciliation-Naharnet
Arslan: Aridi's Assassination Aimed at Sowing Discord, Destroying Unity in Mountain-Naharnet
Security Council Condemns Aridi Killing-Naharnet
Egypt Calls for Self-Restraint in Lebanon-Naharnet
Arslan's Party Adheres to National Unity-Naharnet
Hariri Declares Solidarity with Mount Lebanon Leaders-Naharnet
Iran: Zionist Entity Killed Aridi-Naharnet
U.S. Embassy Remembers Sept. 11 Victims-Naharnet
Mufti Qabbani Warns Against Resumption of Serial Explosions-Naharnet
Sheikh Hassan Pledges Unity-Naharnet
Soaid: The Aridi Crime Targets the Proposed Dialogue-Naharnet
Hizbullah Denounces The Aridi Crime-Naharnet
Jumblat Praises Hariri, Hammers his Team as Caravan of Camels-Naharnet
Lebanese parties vow to work past Aridi murder - (AFP)
Sleiman vows Lebanon will be 'better off' after dialogue-Daily Star
Four dead as fireworks-laden truck explodes-Daily Star
Aridi killing bid to scupper reconciliation - analysts-Daily Star
Sison reflects on September 11 attacks-Daily Star
EU officials reflect on shortcomings of union's policies in Middle East-Daily Star
Italian-funded study maps out solutions for Assi River-Daily Star
Salameh says BDL has no plans to alter interest rates-Daily Star
Lebanese finance minister expects $3.2 billion budget deficit in 2009-Daily Star
UN agency appeals for $42.7 million to aid Nahr al-Bared refugees-Daily Star
Police at Sidon checkpoints warn motorists of imminent mandatory seatbelt law-Daily Star
Charity uses decorations to spread spirit of Ramadan-Daily Star

U.S. troops capture two suspects linked to Iranian-backed Shiite militants
www.chinaview.cn 2008-09-12 19:02:06
BAGHDAD, Sept. 12 (Xinhua) -- U.S. soldiers captured two suspected Iranian-backed Shiite militiamen during an operation in southeastern Baghdad on Friday, the U.S. military said. The operation, which was carried out in the district of Baghdadal-Jadida or new Baghdad, targeted a man believed to be affiliated with the Hezbollah Brigades or Kata'ib Hezbollah in Iraq and involved in their operations in Baghdad, a military statement said.
During the operation, the troops stormed the wanted man's location in the predominately-Shiite district and captured the two suspects without incident, the statement said. According to the statement, U.S. troops have detained 20 suspected leaders and media personalities of Hezbollah Brigades over the past two months.
In an earlier statement, the military said "Intelligence indicates that Hezbollah Brigades is an offshoot of Iranian-trained Special Groups."
Special Groups, which is a term used by the U.S. military, refers to the Shiite militia extremists funded, trained and armed by the Quds Force, a special unit of Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps. U.S. and Iraqi officials frequently accuse Iran of fomenting violence in Iraq by providing support for Shiite militias, while Iran denies the accusations.

Inside Today's Bulletin
Hezbollah Station Broadcasts With An Indonesian Satellite
By: David Bedein, The Bulletin
09/12/2008
Jerusalem - The Israel Intelligence Information Center reported that the terrorist organization Hezbollah's al-Manar TV station in Lebanon has started broadcasting via an Indonesian satellite, after being taken off a Thai satellite.
The Indonesian satellite covers East Asia, China and Australia. Indonesia is a Muslim country, and critics say this will make it more difficult for the international community to fight incitement aired by Hezbollah. About two months ago, Hezbollah's al-Manar TV channel started broadcasting via an Indonesian communications satellite called PALAPA-C2. The satellite's coverage includes, inter alia, China, East Asia and Australia.
A local newspaper in Perth, Australia published an article on Aug. 21 that reported that al-Manar's broadcasts could be viewed across Australia.
According to the article, the channel airs talk shows and documentaries inciting against Israel and the West. The channel also airs children's shows and music shows, and calls upon the viewers to donate to Hezbollah. The article further states that Australia's minister of communications examines the legal aspect of the channel's broadcasts in order to report to the government whether those broadcasts contradict the Australian law (according to which any channel which encourages viewers to join or support terrorist organizations should be banned).
The American embassy spokesman in Indonesia noted that the U.S. government was concerned about the use made by al-Manar of the Indonesian communications satellite, as the U.S. declared al-Manar a terrorist entity in December 2004. Indonesia's Minister of Communications and Information Mohammad Nuh said that the broadcasts were "purely commercial" and that the U.S. had no right to meddle in the company's affairs. He further stated that such TV channels as BBC also made use of satellites. It should be noted that the Indonesian PALAPA-C2 is a third-generation communications satellite launched in 1996.
Owned by Indonesia Telkom, it is operated by the SATELINDO Group from Jakarta, Indonesia.
Most of Indonesia Telkom's shares are held by the Indonesian government, which has the right to veto strategic decisions. The satellite is suited to the rainy weather in Indonesia and the surrounding region, so that it can broadcast with almost no interruptions. It provides video transmissions, cellular phone services and Internet access. Back in August 2005, the activity of Asiasat, a communications satellite that broadcasted Hezbollah's TV channel to Asian countries, was terminated. In addition, limitations were imposed on the channel's broadcasts to the U.S., Europe and South America.
In January, the al-Manar channel started broadcasting via Thaisat, a communications satellite operated by a Thai company that covered Southeast Asia.
However, Thaicom officially announced that it was taking al-Manar off its satellite starting Jan. 11.
Now, however, Hezbollah has recovered from the blow it took in Thailand by broadcasting al-Manar via the Indonesian communications satellite.
The significance of this development is said to be that it now allows Hezbollah and Iran to improve the availability of al-Manar's broadcasts of insurrection, particularly among Muslim target audiences in Southeast Asia, China and Australia.
It should also be noted that Palestinian terrorist organizations' Web sites, such as those of Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, now rely heavily on Indonesian Internet service providers, since some Western Internet companies have stopped servicing them.
*David Bedein can be reached at bedein@thebulletin.us. His Web site is www.IsraelBehindTheNews.com ©The Evening Bulletin 2008

Cast out terror TVFont Size
Colin Rubenstein | September 12, 2008
HEZBOLLAH'S terrorist television station is once again being beamed into Australia. Al-Manar, translated as "the beacon", has been called more accurately a beacon of hatred and violence. It is to be hoped that the Rudd Government and the Australian Communications and Media Authority are doing everything in their power to block the station, as has been done in the past. This is in no way hypocritical, nor does it undermine Australia's commitment to freedom of speech.
Even in societies whose commitment to freedom of speech is as strong as Australia's, there are limits to that freedom, such as where the speech incites violence or racial hatred. Indeed, this balancing has already occurred here for stations such as Al-Manar. In 2005, ACMA proposed new standards prohibiting broadcasts that directly supported terrorist organisations. These standards were the direct result of an ACMA investigation into Al-Manar the previous year. And ACMA has acted again since then to have the station removed from satellites that broadcast into Australia.
Significantly, Australia is not alone in drawing a line between freedom of speech and incitement to violence. The US, France, Canada and the European Union have banned their nationals from broadcasting Hezbollah's TV station into their territories because of the station's message and its dominance by a terrorist organisation.
The prohibition is well deserved. Al-Manar acts as the propaganda arm of Hezbollah, helping to raise money for, and recruit members to, the terrorist organisation. The group and its TV station demonise the West and incite violence against it, repeatedly calling for resistance against coalition forces in Iraq and glorifying terrorism, with videos showing suicide bombers detonating themselves. Al-Manar also helps to perpetuate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by stoking violence against Israel. In one example, a child dressed as Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah repeats one of his speeches to a crowd of children, some of whom are dressed in suicide vests to punish the "Zionist enemy". Other programs extol the virtue of jihad and suicide operations, calling for death to Israel by exploding bodies.
The station spreads anti-Semitism by perpetuating noxious anti-Jewish myths and conspiracy theories, such as the infamous Protocols of the Elders of Zion, blood libel and the lie that Jews were behind the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
During the Muslim holy month of Ramadan in 2003, the station broadcast a 30-part anti-Semitic series, one episode for each night, depicting a supposed Jewish global government. If claims that Al-Manar is popular among Arabic speakers in Australia are true, it is even more important to stop it influencing and inflaming its audience.
Al-Manar cannot be separated from Hezbollah's military wing. Although the terrorist group holds seats in the Lebanese parliament, it makes no distinction between its armed and political branches. Al-Manar, likewise, promotes Hezbollah's political as well as military messages, be it its so-called resistance against Israel or attempts to justify the group turning its arms on Lebanese people, as it did recently.
And, as we all know, money is fungible. Hezbollah's funding of Al-Manar cannot be separated from the funding of its armed branch.
So what could the Government do? First, capitalising on its friendly relations, it should reach out diplomatically to the Indonesian and Qatari governments - both of which own shares in the satellite company that broadcasts the station - as well as private shareholders and impress on them the importance of removing Al-Manar from the menu of channels available on the satellite.
The Indonesian Government has made significant strides in the past several years in combating its militant problem. Broadcasting the propaganda of a foreign terrorist group to Indonesians as well as to populations throughout Southeast Asia and Australia is clearly not in Indonesia's interests. Consistent with those interests, it is to be hoped that the responsible leadership we have seen in public and private domains in both countries will come to the fore on this issue.
The Rudd Government should also pursue all domestic legal measures available to it. It is almost certainly illegal under Australian law to provide support to Hezbollah, a banned terrorist organisation, and, by extension, to its TV station. The Government should determine whether any Australian nationals own part of the satellite company and, if so, take appropriate legal action. The Government should do the same for any Australians found to be facilitating the broadcast of Al-Manar in Australia. Al-Manar spreads a dangerous and violent message in its role as a Hezbollah mouthpiece. It should not be able to use Australia's airwaves to disseminate such poison to undermine our harmonious multicultural society. Colin Rubenstein is the executive director of the Australia/Israel & Jewish Affairs Council.

Bush to host Lebanon president September 25
WASHINGTON (AFP) — US President George W. Bush will host Lebanese President Michel Sleiman September 25 for wide-ranging talks on the Middle East, White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said in a statement Friday. "The president looks forward to discussing bilateral relations between the United States and Lebanon, US support for a sovereign and democratic Lebanon, and a range of regional issues," she said. It will be their first meeting since Sleiman was elected in May. The two leaders were expected to discuss the Middle East peace process as well as Syrian efforts to preserve its influence in its smaller neighbor, and Lebanese national unity talks scheduled for September 16. The announcement of the visit came two days after the car bomb assassination Saleh Aridi, the first pro-Syrian political figure to die in an attack of this kind, in what was widely seen as an attempt to derail the unity talks. The slaying of Aridi, whose party is allied with the Shiite militant group Hezbollah, was the latest in a string of car bomb attacks began in Lebanon in 2005, targeting mainly anti-Syrian politicians. In February 2005, five-times former premier Rafiq Hariri was killed by a huge bomb on the Beirut seafront. The international and domestic backlash against his killing resulted in Syria withdrawing its forces from its tiny neighbor after nearly 30 years. But Lebanon and Syria just last month announced their intention to open diplomatic ties for the first time since they both gained independence from France 60 years ago.

Cracks seen in Lebanon's ruling coalition
Published remarks by Druze leader Walid Jumblatt disparaging Sunni leader Saad Hariri are seen as a sign that he may break from the Western-backed alliance. But Jumblatt's office disputes the quotes.
By Borzou Daragahi, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
September 12, 2008
BEIRUT -- Comments by a leading Lebanese politician published Thursday have stirred speculation that he is considering a break with the country's U.S.-backed political alliance, which is locked in a power struggle with the camp led by the pro-Iranian movement Hezbollah.
Walid Jumblatt, the colorful and outspoken leader of Lebanon's Druze community, accused his coalition's leader, Saad Hariri, of trying to build a militia and allying with Islamic extremists. In comments to a newspaper, he lampooned Hariri's leadership skills, likening his U.S.-backed Future Movement to a "troop of camels all walking together."
Hariri and his Sunni Muslim movement lead the March 14 coalition, which grew out of successful efforts to break Syria's dominance over Lebanon and maintains close ties to the Bush administration. A break by Jumblatt's party would mark a significant defection from the political front that opposes Hezbollah, the Shiite Muslim political organization backed by Iran and Syria.
Jumblatt's office issued a statement saying the comments included "incorrectness" and were not meant for publication. It did not specify what was incorrect. His party's spokesman said Jumblatt had no plans to break with the March 14 coalition.
"There are no shifts in the alliances and we are still part of March 14," Rami Rayess, a spokesman for Jumblatt's Progressive Socialist Party, said in a phone interview.Lebanon's squabbling factions are gearing up for crucial parliamentary elections next year that may decide whether the country will be in the Iranian or U.S. political orbit. The country's kaleidoscope of ethnic and religious groupings have for decades alternately split and made up. But tensions between Shiites and Druzethat heated up after clashes erupted in May continue. Rayess said there was little chance those wounds could be patched up in time for a reconciliation between the two communities before the election. The Druze sect is a small, insular offshoot of Islam with communities in Lebanon, Syria and Israel.
Jumblatt once led a fierce Druze militia that weathered the country's 1975-90 civil war, often with the backing of Syria. From its perch in the Chouf mountains, Jumblatt's militia had fired mortar rounds on U.S. Marines camped out at the capital's airport.
But in the late 1990s, he began breaking with Damascus, becoming a leader of the drive to end Syrian military occupation of Lebanon.
Though he once accused Americans of being behind the Sept. 11 attacks, he ended up a friend of neoconservatives in Washington and their efforts to expand democracy in the Middle East. Tall, thin and with two shocks of messy white hair on his balding head, Jumblatt often shoots from the hip with incendiary remarks about regional politics. He became an outspoken critic of Iran and Syria, even calling for airstrikes on Damascus as punishment for its alleged wrongs in Lebanon. He visited the White House, where he met with members of Vice President Dick Cheney's staff, and he last conferred with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on June 16. In the front page story in the pro-Hezbollah Al Akhbar daily, Jumblatt was quoted as saying that Lebanese must endure Hezbollah's sizable arsenal of weapons, which the March 14 coalition and the U.S. and Israel want to eliminate. He also declared that he makes his most inflammatory anti-Syrian remarks because "politics requires it."He accused Hariri of attempting to build a militia under the guise of security firms and said it was a mistake.
"To form a militia today?" he was quoted as saying. "To face whom? Hezbollah? This is crazy."
daragahi@latimes.com
Special correspondent Raed Rafei contributed to this report.

Geagea in Egypt
Naharnet/Naharnet learned that Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea is visiting Egypt upon an official invitation that was extended to him during the Doha talks last May. Sources close to Geagea said his talks in Manama are the first leg in a tour of Arab states that would be launched at a later date with the aim of clarifying the Lebanese Forces' viewpoint regarding the Lebanon situation. Geagea is expected to return home in 48 hours, the sources said.
Geagea left for Cairo aboard a private jet provided by the government of Bahrain. Beirut, 12 Sep 08, 10:53

The Aridi Bomb: The Latest in a Series that Targeted Hawi, Kassir and Chidiac
Naharnet/The international committee probing the 2005 assassination of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri and related crimes has shown an "exceptional interest" in the Saleh Aridi assassination, especially that preliminary investigations detected similarities with the attempts that has targeted Samir Kassir, George Hawi and May Chidiak, Naharnet learned Friday. Head of the international investigation team Daniel Bellmare has informed Lebanese Judicial, military and security authorities of his "interest in the outcome of preliminary investigations into the Aridi crime to decide whether the committee would delegate a team to survey the crime scene and go through evidence that could help in the investigation he is carrying out," according to information obtained by Naharnet.
Meanwhile, security sources said the remote-controlled bomb used to kill Aridi, a ranking official of the Lebanese Democratic Party,i was similar to devices that had been used to assassinate anti-Syrian figures Hawi and Kassir. The 700-gram bomb also was similar to the device used in the abortive attempt to assassinate LBC Journalist Chidiac, who lost her arm and leg in the rather lethal blast that ripped through her car. In Aridi's case, the magnet-empowered bomb was stuck to the bottom of the victim's Mercedes car below the base for the driver's seat and was detonated by remote control from "a short distance," the daily An-Nahar reported.
Aridi's driver, the report added, "informed investigators on the victim's movements in the last two days, the latest of which was attending an Iftar banquet at the Saha (square) Restaurant" on the main road leading to Beirut Airport, hardly two hours before he was killed by the car bomb explosion in his hometown of Baisour.
The report noted the Iftar banquet was sponsored by "a certain party." It did not identify the party, however.
Aridi drove straight from the restaurant to Baisour, 22 kilometers to the east. Baisour was the theater of fierce clashes in May between the town's Druze and Hizbullah fighters who advanced from nearby Kaifoun, base for a giant relay station for Hizbullah's al-Manar television that was raided by Israeli jetfighters on Aug. 14, 2006. Aridi is to be buried later in the day in Baisour amidst national mourning in the Aley province. Beirut, 12 Sep 08, 08:57

All the right moves: Turkey's charm offensive inspires hope
By The Daily Star
Friday, September 12, 2008
Editorial
The pace of the thaw taking place between Turkey and Armenia is nothing short of breathtaking. Much attention has been focused on Turkish President Abdullah Gul's having attended a football match in Yerevan at the invitation of his Armenian counterpart, Serzh Sarkisian, but the two sides are already moving beyond symbolism. A deal has been struck under which Armenian power stations will supply electricity to Turkey, and state-run Turkish Radio Television has signed a cooperation pact with Armenia 1 TV. In turn, the rapidly warming bilateral ties are already fueling plans for a new grouping of countries in the Caucasus, one whose remit would include multilateral arbitration of international disputes. Gul has even professed full confidence that the issue which caused Turkey to close its border with Armenia in 1993, the latter's war on Azerbaijan over the Nagorno Karabakh enclave, can be resolved with relative ease.
Great challenges remain, of course, not least of which is how the current crisis over separatism in Georgia will play out. But having an effective regional forum would go a long way toward avoiding debacles like that which took place last month, when the Georgian Army attacked a breakaway district and the Russian Army stepped in with overwhelming force. And by serving to enhance stability in the frequently volatile region, the grouping would increase chances for the establishment of pipelines and other forms of energy cooperation that would earn billions of dollars and save billions more. There is also the fact that Turkey's position in the van of this entire process augurs well for its willingness to solve its own separatist problem with the Kurds.
From the Arab perspective, it is depressing to compare all this with the lethargy that typifies intra-Arab cooperation. Despite having faith, language and history in common - not to mention what should be the irresistibly unifying issue of Palestine's continuing occupation - Arab governments are famously incapable of joint action. They talk about things like free trade, regional electricity grids, monetary union and the like, but almost never do any of these grandiose schemes come fully into being, if at all. They talk, too, about Arab unity, but they connive against one another with neither mercy nor shame and they regard one another's citizens as hostile aliens, denying them travel courtesies and privileges extended automatically to visitors from the other side of the globe.
Things have not always been this way, it having taken far too long for Turkey to define a new role for itself after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, but the country's leaders now seem determined to become more assertive on the world stage. The possible benefits of this more activist diplomacy are far-reaching. A more stable Caucasus would tend to ease Russian concerns about foreign meddling in its backyard, for example, perhaps allowing domestic liberalization that helps that country escape its own funk since the demise of the Soviet Union. In addition, as has already been demonstrated by its mediation of indirect Israeli-Syrian talks, Turkey has enormous potential to help stabilize the Middle East. Best of all, if it proves successful, Ankara's charm offensive will set a compelling example for other countries (and perhaps even for some of its own generals) of just how effective soft power can be in undoing the complications wrought by the harder variety.

Back from the brink
Resolved for now, recent strife in Tripoli may be an indication of widespread trouble to come,
Raed Rafei in Beirut
After several weeks of sporadic fighting in Tripoli, a high-profile memorandum for peace was signed Monday night to put an end to sectarian violence in the northern city between a Sunni majority, allied with Saad Al-Hariri's Future Movement, and an Alawite minority with ties to Hizbullah. Despite this apparent reconciliation, instability continues to loom large in Tripoli with political tensions persisting on the national level.
The six-point agreement came following regional and international concern over escalation of the situation in north Lebanon. Sponsored by top Sunni politicians, Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora and the head of the parliamentary majority, Al-Hariri, the document stressed the role of legitimate armed forces as the only power to guarantee security in the city and ordered the withdrawal of all militiamen from the streets.
"Tripoli with its people and political and spiritual elements is a united city and the state is the reference and the guarantor and protector for everybody," said Al-Siniora during the signing of the truce held at the residence of Tripoli's Sunni mufti, Sheikh Malek Al-Shaar. "Tripoli must be a city devoid of arms and armed men because weapons in the hands of individuals and groups do not protect anyone," Al-Siniora added.
In recent weeks, heavy fighting between Sunnis in the poor neighbourhood of Bab Al-Tebbane and Alawites in the adjacent hill of Baal Mohsen has left at least 22 people dead. Although the conflict was fuelled by the recent political divide between the Western-backed parliamentary majority and the Hizbullah-led opposition culminating with the May strife in Beirut, old- time feuds between Sunnis and Alawites -- notably in 1986 when Syrian troops supported by Alawites crushed Sunni Islamists in Tripoli -- have also aggravated tensions.
Tripoli's Future Movement MP, Mustafa Allouch, said the main reason behind the reconciliation was that all groups were worn out from the continuous fighting, which led to the deterioration to alarming levels of the economic situation in Tripoli. He added that pressure from Arab countries and international powers to curb tensions in the north before they spill over to the rest of the country played an important role as well.
"Turning the written truce into a reality on the ground requires a serious implementation of all the points: providing long-due compensations and reviving the economic wheel," Allouch said.
Monday's agreement tackled the return of hundreds of families displaced by force, promising compensation and shelter for residents whose homes were damaged or destroyed by the recent violence. It also attempts to solve root problems in Tripoli by promising "huge economic projects" to revitalise the local economy, especially in poor areas where most of the fighting was concentrated.
According to Osama Safa, director of the Lebanese Centre for Policy Studies, the Tripoli agreement was "too quick to be true". "One should be wary of ceremonial reconciliations that are not the result of a long process of dialogue," he said. MP Allouch agrees that the situation remains unstable. "The reconciliation cannot guarantee against any of the groups trying to shift the equation to its benefit by imposing a new security situation on the ground," he said. "What is hoped," he added, "is to prevent... small disputes from escalating."
Tripoli's recent violence also raised fears that the influence of Sunni extremist groups might be growing in the north, paving the way for Al-Qaeda to adopt Lebanon as a base for its terrorist operations. In a press conference last week, Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad warned from the danger of Salafist movements in the north that, he claimed, are supported by outside countries in the region.
"Any positive step taking place in Lebanon does not have any value without a solution to the problem of fundamentalism and Salafist forces in the north," Al-Assad said. "Lebanon will not become stable with the existence of fundamentalism."
Allouch accused Damascus of instigating strife in Tripoli. "The presence of Salafism is exaggerated in Tripoli," he said. "Syria wants to insinuate to the West that they have a common enemy which is fundamentalism, in order to justify the need for Syrian control over Lebanon."
For Safa, the situation on the ground in Tripoli is complex. "The chessboard in the north is just beginning to emerge. Several factions appeared on the ground. Not all of these Sunni forces answer to one single political group. These forces are difficult to control," he said.
Safa does not exclude that countries in the region, including Saudi Arabia and Syria, were providing arms to forces tied to them. But there was no "active policy by powers in the region to start a war in Lebanon." "What was happening in Tripoli was mostly a continuation of the May violence," he added.
The Future Movement was accused by its political foes of arming its supporters in Tripoli to create a counterbalance force to Hizbullah. After the deadly clashes that opposed in Beirut supporters from the two main political groups in May, relations between the Future Movement and Hizbullah have remained strained, despite the Doha agreement that put an end to the large- scale crisis.
Tripoli's truce was seen as a sign of hope for a larger-scale reconciliation at the national level between the Future Movement and Hizbullah. Hizbullah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, said in a televised speech Sunday that he supported the reconciliation process in Tripoli and was ready to meet with Al-Hariri. "We back all efforts to put the tensions in Tripoli behind us," Nasrallah said. "The important thing is not who sponsors reconciliation ... It is to halt the bloodshed."
Still, major disagreements over the thorny issue of Hizbullah's arms signal that full- fledged reconciliation will not take place anytime soon. According to Allouch, civilians in the north have resorted to arms to protect themselves, especially after the army failed to prevent Hizbullah fighters from "invading" Beirut. Although it gives a boost to the army and internal security forces, Tripoli's reconciliation deal does not address the pressing issue of disarming newly formed militias.
"In the short-term, if the state's security forces act forcefully to maintain stability, people will not turn to self- defence," Allouch said. "But as long as Hizbullah keeps its weapons, this will be a reason for all Lebanese groups to arm themselves. In the long-term, it will be impossible to put an end to non-state groups arming themselves without a radical solution to Hizbullah's existence as a state within a state," he added.
Safa said that Tripoli's truce could launch a positive process. He said that reconciliation would have a direct favourable effect on pending political issues, such as the draft of a new electoral law and the start of a general dialogue process expected to group all political parties under the patronage of President Michel Suleiman.
"The whole political process was halted... The truce will facilitate the holding of the national dialogue, although not as far as substance and true decision-making," Safa said. He added that the main focus for the next phase would be the 2009 parliamentary elections. The violence witnessed in Tripoli was a way of "drawing the election landscape", according to Safa. "The electoral battle will be dangerous in such a politically-polarised situation... We may see violence everywhere," he
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From Russia with, well ... not much
By Tony Badran
Friday, September 12, 2008
Following Syrian President Bashar Assad's recent visit to Russia, and on the heels of the Russian military assault in Georgia, there was a flurry of commentary by regime-sanctioned "analysts" in Syria explaining that this was a turning point in the balance of power in the Middle East. The argument, also echoed in some Western media, was that Syria would use Russian patronage to weaken the standing of the United States in the region while enhancing Syria's position as it played Moscow and Washington off against each other.
This assessment was made on the basis of Assad's hasty endorsement of the Russian invasion of Georgia and his encouraging Moscow to confront the West, NATO and Israel. Assad was the only leader in the world to make such statements, outdoing even the Iranians. Assad also confidently announced he would be seeking to acquire new Russian weapons systems - which Russia had earlier refrained from selling to Syria. This included advanced anti-aircraft missile systems, especially the SA-300 and the portable Igla ground-to-air missiles. Assad also wanted the Pantsyr-S1 and Buk-M2 anti-aircraft systems, as well as anti-tank systems, which Syria was caught transferring to Hizbullah during the 2006 Lebanon war, leading Israel to complain to the Russians. Nor did Assad stop there. He pre-emptively declared his readiness to host Russian advanced ground-to-ground missile stations for the 280-kilometer range Iskander-E, as a counterweight to the US missile shield in Poland.
That was the plan at least. But all evidence now points to the fact that in contrast to Assad's rash statements, the Russians showed tepid interest in what he proposed. The Russian response was evident in Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's carefully worded comments after Assad met with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev in Sochi. Lavrov said that Russia would "consider" Syria's proposals for new arms purchases. However, this consideration would only be for weapons of a "defensive character" that would "in no way upset the regional balance of power."
Robert Freedman, an expert on Russian Middle East policy, wrote that Lavrov could still be overruled, assuming he was being truthful to begin with. However, for now his comments imply that the SA-300 and the Iskander-E systems are off the table. The statements of Russia's acting ambassador to Israel, Anatoly Yurkov, supported this conclusion. Yurkov told the Israeli press: "Why in the world would we need to deploy our missiles [in Syria]? Against whom? We have no enemies in the region."
Perhaps the most compelling indicator that Assad had fired blanks was Syria's clumsy subsequent denial that it had requested the Iskander system at all.
Aside from the missile stations, the Syrians also implied they would offer Russian warships a permanent base in the Mediterranean by upgrading the Tartus port. Other media reports ran wild with speculation about Russian nuclear submarines and warships now being a permanent feature off the Syrian coast. However, there too the payoff for Assad was apparently slight. Igor Belyaev, the Russian charge d'affaires in Damascus, told reporters: "Our navy presence in the Mediterranean will increase. Russian vessels will be visiting Syria and other friendly ports more frequently."
That meant precious little. "Visiting" Syria is precisely what the Russians have been doing in Tartus all along. In other words their ships will not be permanently stationed there, which implies that Russia won't necessarily be hurrying to upgrade the port, contrary to speculation. At best, Belyaev seemed to say that the Russians would show up there more often - but such activity won't be exclusive to Tartus, hence visits to "other friendly ports."
The lack of exclusivity for Syria was another interesting aspect of this episode, doing away with much talk of Syria reviving its privileged client status with the Russians. Far less media attention was given to another visitor to Russia at around the same time that Assad arrived there: Jordan's King Abdullah. The king's visit was focused mainly on military and technical cooperation. Jordan has developed a number of joint military ventures with the Russians in recent years.
A few days later Premier Vladimir Putin - who had met with King Abdullah but not with Assad - also received Saudi Prince Bandar bin Sultan. The Saudis began discussing arms deals with the Russians last year, when Putin made his historic visit to the kingdom when he was still president. Meanwhile, Saudi-Syrian relations have sunk to their lowest levels in recent history. Whatever the purpose of Bandar's visit, the Russians were clearly not giving Syria any special privileges, and seemingly they were not interested in placing all their eggs in Bashar Assad's basket.
Moreover, in contrast to the Syrians, the Saudis can actually pay for their military merchandise. Reportedly, the Russians have demanded advance cash payments for any Syrian purchases, especially since Russia was forced to forgo some $10 billion owed to it by Syria from the Soviet era. The Syrians still owe the Russians another $3 billion.
The Russians might well proceed with a previously negotiated deal on the short-range Pantsyr-S1, and there already have been reports that an initial shipment was delivered in June. This would be a noteworthy development; however it would not alter the balance of forces in the region and would still be a far cry from the ambitious wish-list Assad had splashed all over the Russian media. Much more interesting will be to watch whether the Russians proceed with the sale to Syria of the shoulder-fired Igla, given how the weapons might well end up in the hands of Hizbullah.
In the end, the primary result of Assad's attitude toward Russia was that it highlighted the Syrian president's impulsiveness. What he didn't seem to realize was that there is a new world out there and that even Russia perhaps does not relish going back to the reflexes of the Cold War. But it also tells us something about Bashar Assad that he evidently does.
**Tony Badran is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and hosts the Across the Bay blog (www.beirut2bayside. blogspot.com). He wrote this commentary for THE DAILY STAR.

Back to the Cold War in the Middle East? Maybe
By Konstantin Von Eggert
Friday, September 12, 2008
Although there is seemingly no direct link between the Russia-Georgia conflict and Russia's policy in the Middle East, the conflict could well lead to significant shifts in Moscow's posture in the region. If the current tendencies in the Kremlin's foreign policy prevail, the Middle East may return to a situation resembling that of the Cold War, with Moscow trying to make life difficult for Washington by supporting regimes the United States considers hostile. It is the US that Russia holds primarily responsible for what it terms the "aggressive policies" of Mikheil Saakashvili, the Georgian president, and it is America's support for Tbilisi - including promises to re-equip Georgia's armed forces - that rattle Moscow the most.
It is interesting that one of the first politicians to support Russia's actions was Syria's President Bashar Assad. There have been reports in the Russian press that Moscow may increase its naval presence in the Mediterranean through the use of Latakia and Tartus, Syria's two ports. New arms deliveries to Damascus could well be another response from Moscow to what it perceives as America's unfriendly policies in the Caucasus.
Another and potentially more serious step Russia could take is to adopt a more assertive stance over Iran's nuclear program and international sanctions against Tehran. It is interesting that in the wake of the crisis in Georgia, US military action against Iran, which some people claimed to be imminent before the end of the year, looks less likely as Washington has to tackle the Caucasus problem first. Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad expressed some support for Russia's actions at the recent summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Dushanbe, though Tehran did not rush to recognize the breakaway republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Indeed, Moscow got some moral support but nothing much in terms of real political solidarity from those it counted on, especially China and Iran. Yet these countries would appear to be among the few to which Russia will turn to for support in case its standoff with the West over Georgia continues.
Overtures could also be made to Libya's maverick leader Colonel Moammar Gadhafi. A high-ranking Russian delegation paid Tripoli a visit to attend the 39th anniversary of the coup that brought Gadhafi to power. It was headed by Vladimir Yakunin, the boss of Russia's state railways and a man trusted by Vladimir Putin. Not much is known about the contents of the conversations in Tripoli, and it is doubtful that Gadhafi will take up a confrontational course with regard to US and Europe, as he cherishes his newly found public acceptance by the West and even more so the economic benefits such acceptance could bring.
In the wider region, Russia is already taking steps to counter America's possible moves to secure a pipeline network in Caucasus and Central Asia. Putin has signed an agreement with Uzbek President Islam Karimov to build a new pipeline that will carry natural gas from Turkmenistan via Uzbekistan to Russia. Karimov, whose relations with America are tense over his harsh treatment of the opposition, was no doubt glad to get this shot in the arm from Moscow, which will be supplemented by massive Russian arms deliveries, if one believes what Putin said in Tashkent.
Another country that could get extra attention from Moscow is Azerbaijan, which has so far managed to maintain a precarious balance between Russia and the US. President Ilham Aliev had mostly let his officials support Georgia's territorial integrity (rather than condemn Russia's actions). However, a more pro-Western tilt in Azeri policies is becoming visible, as Baku feels that events in Georgia could have a direct influence on its own frozen conflict with Armenia over Nagorno Karabakh. At the same time, there is a growing feeling in Washington that drawing Azerbaijan closer into the US orbit is in Washington's major interest. This will hardly be to Russia's liking. Iran, with its Azeri minority, also watches events in the neighboring country closely and will no doubt be unhappy if Baku strengthens its ties with the US.
It seems that a round of the 21st century version of the "Great Game" has just begun.
**Konstantin von Eggert is the Moscow bureau editor of the BBC Russian Service. This
**commentary first appeared at bitterlemons-international.org, an online newsletter.

Kantar in Lebanon demo for jailed 'Cuban Five' in US
BEIRUT (AFP) — About 100 Lebanese, including militant Samir Kantar, who was freed by Israel this summer in a prisoner swap, marched on Friday near the US embassy outside Beirut to demand the release of five Cubans held prisoner in the United States.
"Free the five Cuban heroes," read placards brandished by the protesters who also waved Cuban flags as they demonstrated near barricades and barbed wire set up about a kilometre (less than a mile) from the embassy. Kantar, the longest-serving Arab prisoner in Israel until his release this summer in a swap, appeared briefly at the protest to show solidarity. "We have Arab political prisoners in Israel and the Cubans are supporting the Palestinian cause so this is an act of solidarity with the five political prisoners in the US," said Kantar's brother Bassam, who organized the march.
The five Cubans have been held in US prisons for 10 years on charges of espionage. "Samir Kantar insisted on participating in the sit-in as a message to the US embassy because they promised to track him in Lebanon," Bassam said. "This is a message from Samir that we will also track you (the US) on human rights."
Kantar, 46, was just 17 when he was sentenced to five life terms for a 1979 triple murder in one of the most notorious attacks in Israeli history.
He was convicted of killing a police officer, a civilian and a four-year-old child whose head he was accused of bashing with his rifle butt, in a raid in the northern Israeli town of Nahariya. September 12 marks the 10th anniversary of the imprisonment in US high security jails of the "Cuban Five": Gerardo Hernandez, Gerardo Labanino, Fernando Gonzalez, Rene Gonzales and Antonio Guerrero. The United States considers the five convicted spies who passed US military information to the government of communist Cuba. Cuba maintains the five travelled to the United States in the early 1990s on a mission to gather information about Cuban-American terror attacks against Cuba. The Cuban government says it passed on information they gathered to the FBI, but this is disputed by the US government.