LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
April 30/08

Bible Reading of the day.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 16,5-11. But now I am going to the one who sent me, and not one of you asks me, 'Where are you going?'But because I told you this, grief has filled your hearts. But I tell you the truth, it is better for you that I go. For if I do not go, the Advocate will not come to you. But if I go, I will send him to you. And when he comes he will convict the world in regard to sin and righteousness and condemnation: sin, because they do not believe in me; righteousness, because I am going to the Father and you will no longer see me; condemnation, because the ruler of this world has been condemned. Coming of the Advocate

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
Mutual Suspicions over the Lebanese Dialogue-By: Elias Harfoush 29/04/08
The Turkish Passage-By: Ghassan Charbel 29/04/08
Lebanon's Christians in crisis-By Sana Abdullah 29/04/08
A 'Long Hot Summer' in Lebanon?By Rick Moran 29.04/08

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for April 29/08
Hariri, Gemayel say dialogue must lead to presidential vote-Daily Star
Pakradunian sees renewal of national dialogue-Daily Star
Mofaz to Rice: Hizbullah controls south Lebanon-Ynetnews
Hariri Sets Presidential Election Deadline for May 13-Naharnet
Kanaan says FPM still party of choice for Christians-Daily Star
Jumblatt calls for resolution of economic crisis-Daily Star
Visitors to Bkirki stress need to elect Suleiman-Daily Star
Israelis accuse UNIFIL of 'half-truths'-Daily Star
Fadlallah says US, Israeli bid to divide Muslims will fail-Daily Star
Syria's influence still strong three years after pullout-AFP
Minimum wage hike as early as Tuesday - Abboud-Daily Star
Finance Ministry reports reduction in budget deficit-Daily Star
Former Jezzine MP, three-time minister dies-Daily Star
Jailed security chiefs 'not linked' to Roumieh riots-Daily Star
Edde: Hizbullah Nibbling Lebanon-Naharnet
Israeli officials say UN forces in Lebanon not reporting Hezbollah ...International Herald Tribune
Spain's defense minister visits peacekeepers in southern Lebanon-International Herald Tribune
Spain's Defense Minister Visits UN Troops in Lebanon-Naharnet
French Delegate Tells His Kidnapping Story ... Hizbullah Justifies Detention-Naharnet
Jumblat Wants Government to Combat Economic Hardships-Naharnet
Corrective Labor Movement Wants Pay Raise by May Day-Naharnet
Al-Faisal Plays Down Muallem's Warnings Against Internationalizing Lebanon's Crisis-Naharnet
Lebanese Forces Denounce Abduction of French politician-Naharnet
Michel Murr for Electing a President on May 13-Naharnet
Edde: Hizbullah Nibbling Lebanon-Naharnet
Israel Accuses UNIFIL of Hiding Info about Hizbullah from Security Council-Naharnet
March 14 Official Announcement Regarding Dialogue Offer in 48 Hours-Naharnet
Gun Prices Shoot Up in Lebanon after Fears of War-Naharnet
Saudi Denies Beheading of Syrians is Politically-Motivated

'UN not reporting Hizbullah actions'
By ASSOCIATED PRESS
United Nations peacekeeping forces in Lebanon are not fully reporting illegal Hizbullah actions in south Lebanon to the Security Council, government officials said Monday. Slideshow: Pictures of the week The government accuses the Islamist group of violating the terms of a 2006 cease-fire that calls for Hizbullah to disarm and bars its operatives from entering a buffer zone along the northern border. The UN peacekeeping force that was strengthened in the area under the cease-fire is supposed to report violations to the Security Council, but has not done so, the officials said. They spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive diplomatic nature of the comments. In one example at the end of March, UN forces confronted a suspicious pickup truck and armed men following it in two vehicles, the officials said. A full report on the incident was not submitted to the Security Council, the officials said. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon briefly mentioned the incident in a report to the council last week, saying a UN patrol "encountered unidentified armed elements." He labeled their presence a "serious violation" of the Security Council resolutions, but did not mention Hizbullah by name. He said he would give a fuller account in an upcoming report on Lebanon.
At the time of the incident, the UN peacekeeping force, known as UNIFIL, reported that armed men in two vehicles blocked the patrol from following the truck. When the patrol challenged the armed men, they fled the scene before they could be identified, UNIFIL spokeswoman Yasmina Bouziane said after the incident.
UNIFIL did not immediately respond on Monday to a request for comment on the Israeli officials' accusations. Under the UN-brokered cease-fire, the UN forces stationed in south Lebanon were beefed up to 13,500 in an effort to ensure calm in the area. They joined 15,000 Lebanese army forces who were deployed near the border to help Lebanon extend its authority to the south for the first time in decades. Despite the presence of the forces, Israeli officials believe that Hizbullah has smuggled thousands of rockets and anti-tank missiles into south Lebanon since the end of the war in August 2006. In 2000, Israel withdrew from a "security zone" it had occupied in south Lebanon for 18 years to prevent cross-border attacks.

The Turkish Passage
Ghassan Charbel
Al-Hayat - 28/04/08//
Turkey looks at the region and becomes anxious. Its Iraqi neighbor wallows in the midst of a bloody storm; occupation, terrorism, resistance and sectarian conflict. Any permanent disintegration in Iraq would carry the Kurdish fires into the Turkish house. Iraq's unity controls the limits of federalism and curbs Iran's ability to pull the strings in Iraq. This is why Turkey has an interest in a united and democratic Iraq with no room on its territories for a small independent Kurdish state or for the tiny state of al-Zawahiri.
Turkey looks at the region and sees Iran addressing the world and the region through its attempt to control two cards: threatening oil security and threatening Israel's security. Iran's ambition to lead the region is no longer a matter of assumption or speculation. Tehran is present in the daily details of Iraq, both on the security and political levels. The "July War" successfully confirmed its presence on the Mediterranean. But this expansion depends on a visa through the Syrian border. A nuclear Iran will not be good news for Turkey, even if the latter comes under the NATO umbrella.
Turkey looks at Syria and feels relieved for the improvement in bilateral relations over the past few years. However, with its alliance with Iran, Syria strands at the center of the conflict with Israel. At the same time, it clashes with Bush's America in Iraq and with the US, Europe, and major Arab states over the situation in Lebanon. Turkey has no interest in seeing Syria go all the way in its political adventure with Iran. Nor does it have an interest in another Iraq at its borders.
A simple comparison reveals the differences in calculations, methods and means of creating roles. When Mahmoud Ahmedinejad visited Damascus, many wondered about the timing of the next war in South Lebanon and whether its fires would spill over beyond the Lebanese courtyard. When Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Damascus, he officially announced Turkey's mediation to resume Syrian-Israeli peace talks.
The Turkish appearance culminated years of meticulous calculations. Turkey has wisely dealt with the post-September 11 world. It specifically benefited from the coexistence within state institutions between a party with Islamic roots and an army that guards the secular heritage of Ataturk. It went to Afghanistan in its NATO uniform and to South Lebanon with the will of international legitimacy. It also benefited from Damascus' need to counterbalance its Tehran alliance with strong ties to Ankara, as if Syria was aware of its need for the Turkish passage.
In the sick and turbulent region, Turkey has been preparing itself for a regional role whose cards it has gathered. It is a NATO State with close US ties that did not prevent it from opposing the US invasion of Iraq. It is a state that dreams of the European club though it is equally planted in the Middle East. Hence, it made sure to maintain the ability to talk to all sides, including Israel, to exercise the capacity of delivering messages later.
Erdogan's mission is not easy. It may even be described as tedious. It is difficult to believe that Olmert's government is capable of making a decision as big as withdrawing from the Golan Heights. It will not be easy for Syria either to reformulate its regional role on the basis of peace with Israel. The American accusations against Syria over the nuclear reactor are not to be taken lightly either. Betting on the next American administration is not guaranteed. A complete withdrawal from the Golan, even if it is realized, would represent a major shift in Israeli politics. The price of retrieving the Golan represents also a significant change according to the Syrian dictionary on the domestic, regional and international levels.
By welcoming and encouraging Erdogan's mediation, Syria has tried to open a window that protects it from international isolation. However, the ability of the Turkish passage to open the American gates may require another window which Syria can open to retrieve the losses suffered by its Arab and European relations. This would be facilitating the election of General Michel Suleiman and encouraging its allies to walk though the passage of the Arab initiative.
Erdogan's mission is not an easy one. It concerns nearby and remote capitals. It concerns Ahmedinejad, Hezbollah and Hamas. It also concerns the US administration, as it packs its bags and leaves huge crises and numerous battles behind for its heir


Lebanon's Christians in crisis
By SANA ABDALLAH (Middle East Times)
Published: April 28, 2008
Lebanese Christian politician Michel Aoun (right) took the Christian community by surprise when he allied himself with Hezbollah shortly after returning to Lebanon from a 15-year exile in France. Aoun is shown in this March 2006 photo with Lebanon's former president Amin Gemayel. (Photo by ABACAUSA via Newscom)
The Lebanese political crisis has plunged the powerful Maronite Christian community into a crisis of its own, raising fears that the longer the presidential seat remains vacant, the greater the threat on the community's political role.
While the country's rivals all agree that the crisis is a purely political one, the sectarian undertones are clear and apparently are affecting the position of the religious-based political communities in a country that functions on a multi-confessional system that is intended to allow power-sharing between the three major sects.
According to a 1943 "national pact" after Lebanon's independence from France, the presidential seat is allocated to a Maronite Christian, while the prime minister must be a Muslim Sunni and the House speaker a Muslim Shiite.
But the country has been without that Christian president since pro-Syrian Emile Lahoud stepped down at the end of his term last November, while the pro-Western March 14 alliance and the anti-Western March 8 opposition quarrel over the make-up of the new government before parliament can elect their "consensus candidate," army chief General Michel Suleiman.
Lebanese analysts agree that if the Christians – traditionally allied with the West – were united in one political camp, the presidential palace in Baabda would have not become vacant by even a single day and the country would not be facing its worst political crisis since the end of the 1975-1990 civil war.
Not all politicians disagree with this assessment, however. Another point of view is that the solution to the problems blocking the election of Suleiman is not solely a Christian matter and that the Maronite Church did urge the Christian parties in parliament to vote for a president without preconditions.
Antoine Zahra, a Christian MP from the Lebanese Forces, placed the blame on the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), led by former army general Michel Aoun, for setting conditions and hurdles to the election.
Eighteen parliament election sessions were postponed after the Hezbollah-led opposition, of which the FPM and its 21 MPs are members, boycotted the votes. House Speaker Nabih Berri set May 13 as a new date to vote.
In fact, Aoun took the Christian community by surprise when he allied himself with Hezbollah, backed by Syria and Iran, shortly after he returned to Lebanon from a 15-year exile in France.
During his exile, he had repeatedly opposed the Syrian presence in his country and returned home only after Damascus withdrew its troops after a 29-year presence, following domestic and international pressure in the aftermath of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri's assassination in February 2005.

In an interview with the Middle East Times at his high-security residence in eastern Beirut, Zahra said that while the FPM is not directly linked to Syria, Aoun's party is allied with an opposition that is backed by Syria.
He indicated that Damascus was directly ordering its allies Hezbollah and the Shiite Amal Movement, led by House Speaker Nabih Berri, to repeatedly boycott parliament's election sessions so they will fall short of the required two-thirds quorum.
"We know for a fact that there is a fundamental and vital Syrian role that could be played in pressuring the March 8 [opposition] group through Hezbollah and Amal," Zahra said. "We don't say that Syria is pressuring the FMP, but we say it is linked to a force that is directly linked to Syria."
The MP said the Christians in the March 14 coalition see Aoun's alliance with Hezbollah as harming the Lebanese, particularly the Christian interests, since Hezbollah works to "achieve the Iranian strategic scheme in the Middle East."
The FPM, which has a substantial grassroots following, refuses to associate itself with Syria or Iran, saying its alliance with the predominantly Shiite opposition is to oppose U.S. and Western interference in the country's affairs to ensure the country's independence.
Inter-Christian tension was heightened last week in the town of Zahle when suspected Christian gunmen shot dead two Christian Phalangist Party members from the March 14 group. The gunmen have not yet been apprehended.
Former President Amin Gemayel, head of the party, blamed some Christian opposition leaders for the shooting, saying that they were "covering up an obvious and terrible plot to spark divisions and ignite a war."
Analysts say that so long as Lebanon's politicians fail to agree over the presidential crisis, the Christians will likely remain as divided as the rest of the country. And for the Christian community, prolonging the crisis raises the odds against their role in power sharing.
"If no president is elected, there is no role for the Christians in administering the country," Zahra said, noting that, other than the army command and the central bank, the highest Christian political position is reserved for the republic's president. The absence of a Maronite president means the absence of the Christian role in administering the state at the level of the legitimate constitutional institutions," MP Zahra said.

Edde: Hizbullah Nibbling Lebanon
National Bloc Party leader Carlos Edde on Monday said Hizbullah posed a "threat to the Lebanese state entity."
Confronting this threat, according to Edde, "starts with the election of a president." The elected president, according to Edde, "should take the needed arrangements to prevent the repeated kidnapping" of any person. He was commenting on the abduction by Hizbullah operatives of French Socialist party official Karim Pakzad, who was blind-folded and held in seclusion for five hours. The abduction "requires a decisive and strong response by the state and its institutions … Hizbullah is gradually nibbling Lebanon's existence," Edde stressed. Beirut, 28 Apr 08, 15:01

Spain's defense minister visits peacekeepers in southern Lebanon
The Associated PressPublished: April 28, 2008
BEIRUT, Lebanon: Spain's Defense Minister Carme Chacon has visited her country's peacekeepers in southern Lebanon.
Chacon, who is seven months pregnant, has traveled to a Spanish base near the southern town of Marjayoun after arriving Monday in Lebanon's capital Beirut.
A car bombing killed six peacekeepers from the Spanish contingent in June. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack or another one that followed in July. But al-Qaida's deputy leader Ayman al-Zawahri blessed the attack against the Spanish contingent in a July videotape.
The 13,500-strong U.N. force was deployed to southern Lebanon in 2006 along with 15,000 Lebanese troops following a monthlong war between Israel and Hezbollah guerrillas.

Mutual Suspicions over the Lebanese Dialogue
Elias Harfoush
Al-Hayat - 28/04/08//
Speaker Berri's call upon the various players in the Lebanese crisis to reconvene at the dialogue table has stirred the still waters of domestic politics after a period of stagnancy imposed by conditions and counter-conditions set by the majority and the opposition on the implementation of the Arab initiative.
One of the manifestations of this change is that a fundamental player in the majority, namely MP Walid Jumblatt, has acknowledged the benefits of returning to dialogue, the least of which, as he summed up, would be revealing the intentions of the opposition and the degree of its independence from the Syrian position which, according to the Druze leader, remains the obstacle to internal settlement.
Yet, another manifestation is that Speaker Berri himself who had previously delegated his role as dialoguer to MP Michel Aoun, is once again presenting himself as someone capable of sponsoring the dialogue without giving up his position as a central player in the opposition. In fact, he sees that even if the dialogue arrives at nothing more than a declaration of intentions, it would still pave the path to electing the consensus president. Hence, the significance of the meeting between the two men while the 18th session to elect a president was once again rescheduled, and hence the importance of the positive talk about a meeting for the main players before the presidential election session set on May 13.
Despite the prevailing positive atmosphere, regardless of whether it is real or fabricated, one specific certainty should not be forgotten: dialogue has never ceased between the two parties to the Lebanese conflict. It has persisted, either directly or through the media. In other words, the leaders were constantly and fully aware of one another's positions. Everyone remembers the sessions held by the Arab League Secretary General at the parliament where the majority was represented by former president Amine Gemayel and MP Saad Hariri, while the opposition was represented by MP Aoun. The sessions were fruitless because "level two," as Amro Moussa put it, remained shut to the solution. This begs the question: What has changed that justifies the propagated positive atmosphere? Are Berri and Joumblatt aware of new variables at the regional level that permit optimism?
Undoubtedly, the atmosphere created by the Turkish initiative which carried a proposed Israeli withdrawal to Damascus and Syrian affirmation of its desire for peace with Israel in return for its withdrawal from the Golan, will affect Syria's alliances in the region, including its alliances in Lebanon. In as much as the Lebanese ground is used as a platform for getting tough at times of regional escalation, it can also be used to cool things down when there is need to send cold messages. Consequently, it is necessary to raise questions about the responsiveness of Syria's allies within the opposition, especially Hezbollah, to Berri's call for dialogue and the extent to which this responsiveness is aligned with the mentioned regional atmosphere.
The lack of trust between the dialogue partners and the exchanged accusations of relying on outsiders and their interests were among the most significant factors that blocked previous sessions which ended with resolutions and agreements that were never implemented, especially the resolutions pertaining to the future of the Lebanese-Syrian relations. Despite the optimistic atmosphere, the lack of trust remains present today. The opposition deals with Berri's call as a means of dividing the majority through the differentiation between Jumblatt and his allies; the majority, on the other hand, sees it as a test for Berri's ability to distance himself from his allies and their Syrian supporters, not to mention its questioning the motive behind the Speaker's call which came out on the same day when the Friends of Lebanon meeting in Kuwait was issuing its final statement. Given the mutual suspicions, the only positive factor in all this may be its contribution to defusing domestic tensions and creating hope for the Lebanese that the promised war has not yet reached their doorsteps, at least as long as its "heroes" are still capable of talking to one another

Open Letter to Prime Minister Fuad Siniora On the Third Anniversary of the Syrian Withdrawal
Youssef Chaabane, Interrogated Under Torture by the Syrians, Remains in Arbitrary Detention in Lebanon
Dear Mr. Prime Minister,
Three years ago, the Syrian Army evacuated its troops from Lebanon, leaving behind it many painful scars…
The suffering of the Lebanese people under the Syrian occupation was enormous, leaving an open wound that will take years to heal. Much remains to be done to alleviate the pain and heal those scars.
Among the painful legacies of that period is the case of those individuals who were arrested and seriously tortured by the Syrian Intelligence Services on Lebanes e soil. Hundreds of them remain missing to this day and the families of these victims continue to agonize over the possibility of ever finding them.
If the fate of one of those victims, just one, was in your hands, what will you do?
Would you turn your back? Would you abandon that person to his/her fate? Or would you take all measures necessary to restore their dignity?
Fifteen years ago, a man was kidnapped by the Syrian Intelligence Services in Lebanon. Under torture, this man was forced by the Syrian Intelligence Services to sign confessions. He signed under torture that he assassinated a diplomat. Yet, despite all the evidence proving this man’s innocence, he remains sentenced to life in prison.
This man is a direct victim of the Syrian Intelligence Services, and his name is Youssef Chaabane.
The fate of this victim is in your hands because, by a mere “act of fortune”, he remains incarcerated in a Leban ese jail and did not suffer the fate of so many other missing persons.
Today, you have the power to order the release of this man. Indeed, how can an anti-Syrian government like yours continue to endorse and support this monumental miscarriage of justice by Syria?
Today, you have the power to order the release of this man. It would be unimaginable to await the election of a President who may then issue a pardon. What is Youssef Chaabane’s responsibility in the current political situation in Lebanon? Nothing. Therefore, no justification can stand in the way of the inevitable action that must be taken: Release Youssef Chaabane as the direct victim of the barbaric Syrian Intelligence Services, and only you can do this.
We trust that you will take this bold step and we challenge anyone who would dare criticize this gesture. Not one political excuse can stand in the way of the decision of reinstating a victim’s rights.
Re spectfully,
For the CLDH (Lebanese Center for Human Rights)
Marie DAUNAY
President
Beirut, April 28, 2008
Lettre ouverte au Premier Ministre Fouad Siniora

Middle East Arrest and Release Alert
From: International Christian Concern (icc@persecution.org)
Sent: April 28, 2008 3:42:53 PM
We have learned that 16 Christians were arrested on April 25th in a certain country in the Middle East. The group was arrested as they gathered for private worship in a home, and included women and children as young as one year old.
As of today, all have been released!
Previously in this country, Christians were held for 8 or more months after being arrested. After ICC started publicizing arrests in this publicity sensitive country back in 2003, government officials came under increasing pressure for holding Christians in prison. As a result, the number of arrests has declined significantly, and when they do happen, the Christians are released quickly.
All this is wonderful news, but we are now asking for prayer that they will not be deported, which is the usual course of action. If they are deported, we will publicize more details on the case.
Stay tuned...
In Christ,
Jeff King
President, ICC
www.persecution.org

A 'Long Hot Summer' in Lebanon?
By Rick Moran-American Thinker
April 28/08
http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/04/a_long_hot_summer_in_lebanon.html
"Whenever I want to know how bad the situation is in Lebanon, I look in the trunk of Rabieh's car. If there are only a few revolvers, the situation is fine. If there are a few automatic weapons, the situation is tense. And if it is packed with AKs and M16s, I know the situation could explode at any time."
(A member of the Democratic Left Party in Lebanon)
The talk is of guns in some quarters in Lebanon and of how expensive firearms have gotten. An AK-47 that cost $75-$100 a year ago now goes for between $700-$1000. The government is fully aware of the gun market but can do nothing. After all, they can't disarm Palestinians in the refugee camps nor take Hezb'allah's guns away from them. How can they stop people from arming themselves for protection against... what?
Indeed, that is the question in Lebanon today as the political stalemate between the western backed March 14 government and Syrian/Iranian backed Hezb'allah continues. Plans to end the stalemate come and go but the political life of Lebanon is at a standstill. Hezb'allah ally Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri continues to schedule a vote for President in Parliament -- 17 times since December. But Berri and the Hezb'allah led opposition (which includes the largest Christian party led by Michel Aoun) do not recognize the "legitimacy" of the government led by Prime Minister Foaud Siniora, and hence are agitating for a new one -- this time with Hezb'allah dominant. They refuse to show up at these scheduled parliamentary sessions thus denying the majority a quorum to get the business of electing a president over with.
The question "Can they do that?" is irrelevant. This is Lebanon. And in a nation so tied up in political knots, so on edge as the result of the murderous Syrian gangster regime next door that assassinates ministers and Members of Parliament who oppose them, all sides recognize the peril of taking the wrong step or making the wrong move or even of saying the wrong word.
The immediate problem facing the factions is a replacement for Syrian puppet President Emile Lahoud. He stepped down last November and the two sides have been at it hammer and tongs since. Every candidate put forward by the March 14th Forces has been summarily rejected by Hezb'allah. This was true even when the government swallowed its pride somewhat and agreed to nominate General Michel Suleiman, head of the Lebanese army and a nominally pro-Syrian figure.
At first, it appeared that Suleiman would breeze through and solve the presidential problem. But like a gambler who just can't take his winnings and leave the table. President Assad in Syria nixed the idea until the make up of a new government had been agreed to. Since then, Hezb'allah has added the stipulation that there will be no president until the current electoral law -- which favors Christians at the expense of Muslims -- is reformed.
Back to square one -- or before square one if you wish. Since early in the year, Sunnis and Shias have been buying guns while the old militias -- who never gave their firearms up in the first place -- have reportedly begun to drill. There have been some clashes in the streets between the factions, mostly riots over some perceived insult by one side or the other. The overall mood in the country is tense.
And now that they have completely bollixed up the political situation in Lebanon, Hezb'allah has felt free to get back to the business of destroying Israel. In recent months, a gigantic recruiting campaign has been underway as they have emptied towns and villages in the south of young men and sent them off to training camps in the Bekaa Valley, and in special cases, Syria and Iran:
The significance of this latest recruitment drive is that Hezb'allah is apparently seeking to not only replace losses suffered in the war but also expand its military capabilities. And many analysts believe there is only one reason for Hezb'allah to make this move: they plan to incite another war with Israel sometime soon -- perhaps as early as this summer.
The Israelis are still reeling from their perceived failure in the war with Hezb'allah. The Winograd Commission Report exposed several deficiencies in leadership, training, and tactics that are just now being addressed by the IDF. But the army can hardly be expected to have reformed itself in a few months. And with a looming conflict with an expanded Hezb'allah on the horizon, the Israeli government is watching political developments in Lebanon very closely.
Indeed, one reason for the expansion of the militia could be to have more fighters available if the clashes in the streets get serious -- something Hezb'allah is perfectly capable of manipulating if they choose. At the moment, it appears unnecessary because the paralyzed government of Prime Minister Siniora continues an inexorable process of moving toward meeting opposition demands on changing the electoral law and forming a new "Government of National Unity" that would give the opposition veto power over cabinet decisions.
What choice do they have? The canny old Druze warlord Walid Jumblatt has come to the conclusion that the majority must talk with the opposition and that the basis of those talks must be meeting opposition demands:
"Jumblatt noted the divergence in point of views between opposition leaders over dialogue. "MP Michel Aoun is rejecting dialogue while Berri is calling for it. If this is a maneuver on their behalf, let us check their intentions."
"'If this dialogue will not lead to the election of a president, the public opinion will be at least informed of the obstructing party,' he added.
"'Probably this is the justification of the Syrian support to dialogue,' Jumblatt declared.
"He also noted that March 14 forces must agree over the electoral law. 'Dialogue will indicate the matter over which we can agree with the opposition.'"
The majority could, in fact, call a special session of parliament and elect a president by majority vote any time they wish. But Hezb'allah has hinted that if they do that, the opposition will form their own government thus all but precipitating a civil war.
It comes down to this: the majority is seeking to act responsibly, bending over backward to accommodate the opposition's demands while trying to maintain its position as the legally elected government. The opposition, backed by Syria, is simply sitting back and throwing monkey wrench after monkey wrench into the process. For in the end, chaos in Lebanon benefits only one man and one regime: Bashar Assad's Syria.
There is little the US can do to prevent Syrian influence in Lebanon from causing an eruption of violence. In fact, it is an open question whether the next president -- be he McCain or Obama -- can resist the temptation to abandon Lebanon in favor of jump starting the Middle East peace process or getting Syria to assist us in Iraq.Michael Young points out the perils of engaging Syria in dialogue:
"Is it really in the U.S. interest to engage Syria in this context, when its major Arab allies are in the midst of a conflict with Iran they view as vital? In fact, I'm not at all convinced that asking Arab states to change Syrian behavior through 'more robust interactions and investments in the country' would work. The Arabs have repeatedly tried to change Syrian behavior through more congenial means, most prominently at the Arab League summit in Riyadh last year. The Syrians have ignored this. Why? Because they know the price for their return to the Arab fold would be to give up on a return to Lebanon. They're not about to do that, because only such a return, one that is total, with soldiers, would give Syria the regional relevance it lost in 2005, when it was forced out of Lebanon.
"It would also allow Syria, from Beirut, to undermine the Hariri tribunal, which threatens the future of the Syrian regime and which will probably begin operating next year. In this, Syria has the full support of Hezbollah, which realizes that without a Syrian comeback, the party will continue to face a majority in Lebanon that wants the party to disarm. I find it revealing that Jon failed to mention Lebanon once in his post. That's because advocates of engaging Syria realize that the only way you can bring about an advantageous dialogue with Damascus is to give it something worthwhile. That something can only be Lebanon, the minimal price Syria would demand to offer positive concessions in return."
And that, gentle reader, is the bottom line. Obama can talk about meeting with Assad all he wants and it won't advance the cause of peace with Israel one damn bit unless he's willing to betray Lebanon.
Lebanon is not only the key to Syrian influence in the region it is also the key to Assad's survival. Some may be unfamiliar with Syria's role in the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri and the formation of a tribunal (now under UN auspices due to Lebanon's political paralysis) to try and convict the perpetrators.
The ongoing UN investigation has shown that 4 Lebanese army generals (now in custody) in cahoots with Syrian intelligence, carried out the car bombing that killed Hariri. The prosecutors have also uncovered evidence that the subsequent political assassinations of several leading government parliamentarians, journalists, and other anti-Syrian figures was also masterminded by Syrian intelligence as well as leading members of Assad's regime -- including Assad's own brother in law Assef Shawkat who became head of intelligence 30 minutes after Hariri was killed.
The Tribunal, if allowed to function fully and properly, will no doubt indict people very close to Bashar Assad himself. This would spell catastrophe for Assad and Syria which would come under severe sanctions by the US and the United Nations. Since Syria's forced withdrawal from Lebanon in 2005, the economy has taken a nosedive thanks to the drying up of "protection money" and other means by which Syria milked the Lebanese economy to benefit the regime. The pressure to get rid of Assad would be intense. There would probably also be calls for regime change from both Arab and western governments.
In short, most analysts agree that the number one priority of the Syrian regime is to get back into Lebanon and try and derail the Tribunal. No deal with the Arabs or the west about Iraq, about WMD, about the Golan, or about their relationship with Iran will take place without a quid pro quo involving Lebanon.
There is no apparent timetable to Hezb'allah's plans. They don't have to war with Israel anytime soon nor do they appear in any hurry to force the political situation in Lebanon to any kind of dénouement. But it is equally clear that they now feel they have the upper hand in Lebanon. The explosion may not occur this summer. But it appears that the Syrians and Hezb'allah will get everything they want unless the government is prepared to stop them.
**Rick Moran is associate editor of American Thinker, and proprietor of the website Rightwing Nuthouse.