LCCC
ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
March 27/09
Bible Reading of the day.”
John12/44-59: Jesus cried out and said,
“Whoever believes in me, believes not in me, but in him who sent me. He who sees
me sees him who sent me. I have come as a light into the world, that whoever
believes in me may not remain in the darkness. If anyone listens to my sayings,
and doesn’t believe, I don’t judge him. For I came not to judge the world, but
to save the world. He who rejects me, and doesn’t receive my sayings, has one
who judges him. The word that I spoke, the same will judge him in the last day.
For I spoke not from myself, but the Father who sent me, he gave me a
commandment, what I should say, and what I should speak. I know that his
commandment is eternal life. The things therefore which I speak, even as the
Father has said to me, so I speak.”
Free Opinions, Releases, letters &
Special Reports
Confessions of Bachar/Future
News 26.03.09
Analysts divided over
appointment of Syrian envoy. By Michael Bluhm
26/03/09
What reason is there to celebrate Bashir's failed leadership?
The Daily Star 26/03/09
The Palestinian cause is being hijacked.By
Michael Young 26/03/09
Taking Syria Seriously-Middle
East Times 26/03/09
Latest News Reports From
Miscellaneous Sources for March
26/09
Nadim Gemayel: “No compromises for
SSNP candidate in Ashrafieh”/Future News
Hariri Case to be Transferred to
The Hague, 4 Generals to Stay in Lebanon Jail-Naharnet
Parliament Session Postponed Again After Lack of Quorum Over Controversial
Topics-Naharnet
Israeli Military Intelligence: Hizbullah Hasn't Given up Mughniyeh Vengeance
Plans-Naharnet
One
Suspect from Zoaiter Family Killed in Shootout with Soldiers-Naharnet
Jumblat: Assad Changed his
Tone-Naharnet
Saudi militant back from Syria to surrender
-source-Reuters
Agreement Reached on
Central Bank Governor Deputies' Names, No Progress on Key Issues-Naharnet
Hariri Wants Presidency to
Remain Christian-Naharnet
Hizbullah Snaps Back at
Feltman's 'Deluded' Positions-Naharnet
Cassesse: The Fate of the
4 Generals to be Decided by May-Naharnet
Berri: Why Council of The
South Budget late Despite Agreement with PM?-Naharnet
Thousands Mourn Slain PLO
Official in Lebanon-Naharnet
Culture of corruption rampant in
Lebanon - ministers, NGOs-Daily
Star
Ban on Lebanon lifted for Filipino
workers - report-Daily
Star
Internal Security Forces defuse explosive device near home of Gemayel-Daily
Star
Show of unity as thousands mourn slain PLO official.(AFP)
Sarkozy: Syria envoy to Beirut
'historic step-Daily
Star
Hizbullah MP says opposition can
govern alone-Daily
Star
Feltman links US aid for Lebanon to
results of June 7 election-Daily
Star
Assad insists Syria has no
information on Hariri killing-(AFP)
Analysts divided over appointment
of Syrian envoy-Daily
Star
'Opportunity for growth' in Lebanon
hotel industry-Daily
Star
Lebanon's Bassil signs call-center
contracts with five firms
Egypt ignores anniversary of 1979
peace deal as Israel celebrates-(AFP)
Bashir visits Egypt despite arrest order.(AFP)
Nadim Gemayel: “No compromises for SSNP candidate in
Ashrafieh”
Date: March 25th, 2009 Source: Future News
The candidate for the Maronite seat in the Beirut I district Nadim Gemayel said
"he who wants to liberate Ashrafieh should not concede a parliamentary seat to
Syrian Social Nationalist Party MP Assad Hardane in the South, and the one who
wants to restore the dignity of Beirut's citizens, and Ashrafieh's particularly,
does not go to Syria to restore dignity."During a meeting held Tuesday Gemayel
announced his alliance with Michel Pharaoun and Nayla Gibran Tueini.
Confessions of Bachar
Date: March 26th, 2009 Source: Future News
The confessions of Syrian President Bachar El Assad about offending Lebanon and
establishing relations with it "in contrary to Taef agreement" are beneficial
for his followers' perception. However, they are absolutely unimpressive
for others. Assad's interview to AS-Safir daily published Wednesday, asserted
that Lebanon, which is enduring enticements in an attempt to hook it up with the
policy of axes, is still threatened by several challenges. For the first time,
Assad admits mistakes were done by Syrian officials in Lebanon, and other
mistakes were done by Syria's allies in Lebanon. "We have lost Lebanon due to
mistakes we did in framing the relation between Lebanon and Syria after 1990",
he says.
Assad's words would be a pane to straighten relations between the two countries
only if it is accompanied by a serious political determination.
However, Assad continues to say things that contradict his declarations, as he
connects Syria's relation with Lebanon to the Lebanese unanimity. This theory,
however, does not exist in political sciences or in the instruction manual of
diplomacy.
No one said Syria should establish relations with ‘March 14' or with ‘March 8'
forces, but it should establish actual rival relations with the Lebanese state,
regardless of the political movements that are in power in Lebanon.
Accordingly, the relation between Beirut and Damascus should not be subject to
the "majority" or "minority" but it must be restricted between the two states.
As for how this legitimate authority will be established, it is purely a
Lebanese domestic issue, and no one else should interfere or even give his
opinion about it, since the Lebanese will handle the responsibility of the
decisions they make on their own. Assad's belated admission of the "mistakes"
Syria has done in Lebanon does not exempt it from assuming the responsibility
for continuously seeking to interfere in the Lebanese affairs.
Syria's interference attempts in Lebanon were displayed through its failure to
cooperate in issues such as the Lebanese detainees in its prisons, and the
resistance, especially when Assad said the Lebanese "must support the
resistance".
The most surprising thing the Syrian President said was "it is normal for the
two countries to exchange influence", and it is quite obvious he was referring
to the Syrian influence in Lebanon. But the word "exchange" means the Lebanese
influence in Syria as well, and where exactly can we find this? And does Assad's
regime take on the responsibility if a party in Damascus adopts a Lebanese cause
against the regime's approval??
The other question here: is it of Assad's business to discuss supporting the
resistance in Lebanon? And how were the Lebanese territories liberated from the
Israeli occupation in 2000 if it weren't of the Lebanese and political support
to the resistance?
Perhaps we should ask Assad: how should we support the resistance within
resolution 1701 which was agreed upon by all the Lebanese, and approved by Syria
in a declaration by Syrian Minister of Information Mohsen Bilal? And why should
Lebanon "support the resistance" if that position does not even exist in Syria,
especially that the area of the occupied Lebanese Shebaa farms is 42 square
kilometers, while that of Syria's occupied Golan Heights is 1050 square
kilometers?
Lebanon cannot just accept Assad's confessions and forgive Syria for its 30
years of occupation, because this does not establish a rival relation between
the two countries.
These relations, however, can be established through exchanging embassies
between Beirut and Damascus, and through both governments rather than through
political movements, in addition to stopping the smuggling of weapons and
explosives through borders. Hence, Assad's confessions are merely political
illusions that require serious and truthful effort to assume a political course
that can be adopted. This, however, is unlikely to happen as the experiences
with the Syrian regime are cruel and tainted with blood. If Assad was really
serious and wants to show his good will towards Lebanon, let him start by
tackling the issue of the Palestinian weapons outside the camps, and releasing
the Lebanese detainees from the prisons of his intelligence services, and then
let the International Tribunal prosecute the assassins of martyr PM Rafic Hariri
decide if we were wrong about Syria's involvement.
Hariri Case to be Transferred to The Hague, 4 Generals to
Stay in Lebanon Jail
Naharnet/The prosecutor in a U.N. court that hopes to try the killers of former
Prime Minister Rafik Hariri asked Lebanon to hand over the case to the
international tribunal, but the request did not include the transfer of the four
generals suspected of involvement in the 2005 assassination.
A statement said the prosecutor of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL),
Daniel A. Bellemare, filed an application today (Wednesday) urging the pre-trial
judge to ask Lebanese authorities to "defer to the tribunal's competence."
It said Lebanese officials should also "hand over to the prosecutor the results
of the investigations and a copy of the relevant court records and other
probative material; and submit to the pre-trial judge a list of all persons
detained in connection with the investigation."
The STL was the first international terrorist court, created in 2007 by a United
Nations Security Council resolution in 2007. It began work outside The Hague on
March 1. It is charged with trying the alleged authors of terrorist attacks in
Lebanon, including the murder of Hariri and 22 other people in a bomb attack in
February 2005. Bellemare had two months from March 1 to submit his request to
the Lebanese authorities.
Four Lebanese generals, detained since August 2005 as part of the investigation
into the Hariri assassination, remain at Roumieh prison east of Beirut. The
first two reports from the U.N. committee of inquiry set up two months after the
killings of Hariri found evidence of involvement by the Syrian intelligence
services.
Meanwhile, pan-Arab daily Al Hayat on Thursday said no progress has been made
toward the Memorandum of Understanding between Lebanon and the international
tribunal. It said a revised version of the proposed text did not receive a
response from Hizbullah.
"Does that imply that Hizbullah rejects the idea of the memorandum of
understanding in principle?" Al Hayat asked. Beirut, 25 Mar 09, 21:56
Parliament Session Postponed Again After Lack of Quorum
Over Controversial Topics
Naharnet/Speaker Nabih Berri adjourned the parliamentary session for lack of
quorum and insisted the legislature will discuss on April 7 the same topics that
were on Thursday's agenda. "Every time there is no quorum, a new session will be
scheduled and I won't add any new draft laws to the agenda," Berri warned.
Last week, parliament unanimously approved a draft law to lower the voting age
to 18. But the session was later postponed due to lack of quorum to discuss
other controversial items on the agenda. Thursday's session came to a close
before discussing the controversial topics of eliminating taxes on gas, meeting
the demands of teachers and Lebanese University professors, bringing
heads-of-state and ministers to trial and a draft law to grant a general amnesty
for crimes committed before April 27, 2005. Future Movement MPs also objected to
a draft law on disabled people's rights. MP Samir al-Jisr said the proposal was
within cabinet's authority, not parliament. Premier Fouad Saniora said in
parliament that cabinet will pay salary and pay-grade differences bi-annually on
an installment basis. The first payment will probably be made prior to the
legislative elections, he said. After the session, Saniora criticized demands by
some MPs to eliminate gas taxes, saying any such move would put burdens on the
treasury. MPs previously approved a draft law allowing cabinet the right to
legislate in matters relating to the customs code.
Parliament also gave the green light for cabinet to issue treasury bonds in hard
currencies amounting to $200 million to pay entrepreneurs. Beirut, 26 Mar 09,
13:55
Israeli Military Intelligence: Hizbullah Hasn't Given up
Mughniyeh Vengeance Plans
Naharnet/Hizbullah has not given up plans to avenge the assassination of
military commander Imad Mughniyeh in a car bomb attack in Damascus last year,
the head of Israel's military intelligence claimed on Wednesday. "Most probably
they will harm us abroad," the director of Military Intelligence Major-General
Amos Yadlin told parliament's foreign affairs and defense committee. The Shiite
group accused Israel of killing Mughniyeh in February 2008 but the Jewish state
denied any role.
Turning to Iran, Yadlin said that Tehran will have the capacity to build a
nuclear bomb within a year but is not rushing into production.
"The Iranian strategy is not to get a nuclear bomb as soon as they can so as not
to give the world a reason to act against them," he said.
MPs quoted Yadlin as telling the committee that Iran is trying to rapidly
acquire the capacity to build a bomb but is "enriching uranium in a rate meant
to make it very hard to incriminate them." About Hamas, he said the Islamic
movement was preparing for another round of fighting. "Hamas did not give up on
its ideology of 'resistance.' It is preparing itself for another round of
fighting and will therefore never sign an agreement to stop weapons smuggling.
For Hamas, smuggling is the resistance's main option," he said. Beirut, 26 Mar
09, 08:13
One Suspect from Zoaiter Family Killed in Shootout with
Soldiers
Naharnet/One suspect from Zoaiter family was killed and four people were
arrested during a raid carried out by Lebanese soldiers at dawn in the area of
Ras al-Dekwaneh. The state-run National News Agency said soldiers killed Ali
Sobhi Zoaiter after he opened fire at the army patrol at around 5:00 am.
Four members of the gang that Zoaiter runs were also arrested, according to NNA.
Beirut, 26 Mar 09, 09:12
Jumblat: Assad Changed his Tone
Naharnet/Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat said Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad has changed his tone. Jumblat said Assad's interview with the
daily As Safir on Wednesday showed a "change of tone compared to the past."
"He (Assad) has reconsidered his position," Jumblat told As Safir in remarks
published Thursday. Assad "had admitted that there were mistakes done in the
past," Jumblat said. "Lebanon cannot be enemies with Syria. This is against
history," he added.
He said Lebanon should not be a "passage" to any political faction hostile to
Syria, stressing that he will stick to his principles, including "my moderate
contribution" in torpedoing a May 17, 1983 peace agreement between Israel and
Lebanon. In his interview with As Safir, Assad said he supports bilateral ties
between his country and Lebanon but will not accept "oscillating" relations or
those based on "political interests." Beirut, 26 Mar 09, 10:16
Agreement Reached on Central Bank Governor Deputies' Names,
No Progress on Key Issues
Naharnet/Agreement has reportedly been reached on the names of the deputies to
the central bank governor and the nominees are likely to be officially announced
at Thursday's Cabinet meeting. Local media said, however, that no progress had
been seen on the budget impasse or the administrative appointments.
They said the agreed-upon names include Mohammed Baasiri, a Sunni, Raed
Sharafeddine, a Shiite, Saad al-Indari, a Druze, and Armenian Harout Samuelian.
Pan-Arab daily Al Hayat said Thursday that the 2009 state budget crisis remains
unripe. It quoted well-informed sources as saying that an agreement had recently
been reached between Speaker Nabih Berri and Prime Minister Fouad Saniora on
budget figures. Approval of the budget, however, seemed to be linked to other
topics that are put on freeze pending a package deal. Beirut, 26 Mar 09, 09:07
Hariri Wants Presidency to Remain Christian
Naharnet/Mustaqbal movement leader Saad Hariri said at the end of his three-day
visit to Britain that the president of Lebanon should remain Christian to
strengthen coexistence. "The president should remain Christian because we
believe that Lebanon's characteristic and strength is in not differentiating
between its Christians and Muslims. As the late Pope John Paul II has said,
Lebanon is a message and not just a country. The message is that Christians and
Muslims should live together and there is no problem if they govern each other,"
Hariri said during a lecture at Chatham House on Wednesday.
He reiterated that the June 7 parliamentary elections are historic, adding that
they will decide the future of the country.
"The polls are aimed at protecting Lebanon that we believe is a moderate,
advanced and tolerant country whose problems are solved peacefully," the MP
said.
About the results of the elections, the Mustaqbal leader said: "If we win, we
look forward to form a harmonious government … In case we don't win, we will be
in the opposition." He called for taking advantage of Lebanon's economic
strengths and said providing new job opportunities for the Lebanese is a
priority.
"We will run in the parliamentary elections based on an economic and social
program of reform that seeks to deal with the outstanding challenges that our
economy faces," Hariri said. About the nomination of a Syrian ambassador to
Lebanon, Hariri said: "There is finally an ambassador and a Syrian embassy in
Lebanon."
He also stressed that he is not against U.S.-Syrian dialogue because "dialogue
is necessary" in such a tense region. Beirut, 26 Mar 09, 09:43
Agreement Reached on Central Bank Governor Deputies' Names,
No Progress on Key Issues
Naharnet/Agreement has reportedly been reached on the names of the deputies to
the central bank governor and the nominees are likely to be officially announced
at Thursday's Cabinet meeting. Local media said, however, that no progress had
been seen on the budget impasse or the administrative appointments. They said
the agreed-upon names include Mohammed Baasiri, a Sunni, Raed Sharafeddine, a
Shiite, Saad al-Indari, a Druze, and Armenian Harout Samuelian. Pan-Arab daily
Al Hayat said Thursday that the 2009 state budget crisis remains unripe. It
quoted well-informed sources as saying that an agreement had recently been
reached between Speaker Nabih Berri and Prime Minister Fouad Saniora on budget
figures. Approval of the budget, however, seemed to be linked to other topics
that are put on freeze pending a package deal. Beirut, 26 Mar 09, 09:07
Hizbullah Snaps Back at Feltman's 'Deluded' Positions
Naharnet/Hizbullah has criticized U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for
Near Eastern Affairs Jeffery Feltman's positions regarding Lebanon and the
Shiite party, calling them "deluded dreams." Feltman speaks "as if he were the
head of a party or Lebanese group," Hizbullah said in a statement on Wednesday.
It added that Feltman's and Washington's policies in Lebanon were "deluded and
unsubstantial dreams." The group went on to say that "it seems [Feltman] is
still suffering from the effects of the shock [caused by] the realization of his
country's defeat in the region." The statement concluded with criticisms of the
U.S. stance on terrorism. The group stated that the U.S. "has committed and
still commits crimes… and supports criminal entities, the first of which is
Israel… the first terrorist state and supporter of terrorism in the
world."Feltman had discussed issues surrounding Lebanon and the Middle East on
Tuesday during a hearing of the House Subcommittee on the Middle East and South
Asia. He said that "Hizbullah clearly remains a danger to Lebanon and the
region." The former ambassador to Lebanon had also denounced the continued
weapons-smuggling via Syria and Iran into the hands of Hizbullah. Beirut, 26 Mar
09, 09:47
Cassesse: The Fate of the 4 Generals to be Decided by May
Naharnet/The President of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) Antonio
Cassasse, said: "the fate of the four (detained) generals will be decided in
May, either they are released or charged." In an interview with the Italian
daily La Republica on Wednesday, Cassesse said that nothing would affect the
tribunal's work saying: "beginning today we shall begin (working) with the first
issue, that is the four Lebanese generals who were former security and
intelligence directors."
He added that the tribunal shall practically begin next year saying that for
this purpose a new detention and criminal trial law have been adopted.
"Most important is that we have formed a defense bureau that is equally
important to the general prosecutor's office," Cassesse said.
He went on to add that Syria has up to now the right not to deliver potential
Syrian suspects. "We have to first conclude a judicial cooperation protocol with
Syria," he said. Cassesse was quick to point that states such as Jordan, Iran
and Egypt need to sign a similar protocol with the tribunal "for we believe they
too have witnesses that could provide evidence." Beirut, 25 Mar 09, 18:24
Berri: Why Council of The South Budget late Despite
Agreement with PM?
Naharnet/Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri said that he had an understanding with
Prime Minister Fouad Saniora over the issue of the Council of the South's budget
when he met him at Baabda palace under the president's auspices. Following his
meeting with President Michel Suleiman on Wednesday, Berri said: "cabinet should
be asked about the delay in appropriating that?" The Speaker added that the
upcoming legislative elections are transitory and less than usual saying: "let's
not call a break bone election, because it could be very sectarian." He hoped
that the soon to be held Arab summit in Doha, Qatar a success in taking steps on
economic concerns such as the creation of a single Arab currency as suggested by
Lebanon's Central bank Governor Riad Salameh. Beirut, 25 Mar 09, 17:26
Thousands Mourn Slain PLO Official in Lebanon
Naharnet/Members of rival Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas turned out by the
thousands on Wednesday for the funeral in Beirut of a top Palestine Liberation
Organization official killed in a bombing. Kamal Medhat, the PLO's number
two in Lebanon, died in Monday's roadside bombing outside the Mieh Mieh refugee
camp in southern Lebanon along with three other people, including two of his
bodyguards. The coffin of Medhat and the other three victims, draped in
Palestinian flags, were carried about three kilometers (less than two miles)
through the streets of Beirut from Imam Ali mosque to the Palestinian "martyrs
cemetery."
PLO guards marched in front of the thousands-strong procession chanting
revolutionary songs while some in the cortege carried photographs of the four
victims and others waved Palestinian, Fatah and Hamas flags. During the
procession, the PLO representative in Lebanon, Abbas Zaki, walked side by side
with Hamas officials.
Medhat was leading efforts to end the rift between Fatah -- the faction led by
Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas -- and the Hamas movement as well as several
other Islamist groups operating in some of the 12 camps housing Palestinian
refugees in Lebanon.
Medhat, 58, was also a former aide to the late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat
and a former intelligence chief for Fatah in Lebanon.
Lebanese newspapers said the killing could be a "settling of scores" between
Fatah and Hamas.
Top PLO official Kamal Medhat was likely the victim of inter-Palestinian feud,
the daily As Safir reported Wednesday.
It quoted a security source as saying that initial findings show that the bomb
was Palestinian-made that was likely prepared at the refugee camp of Ain el-Hilweh
in southern Lebanon. The source said Medhat was "definitely" the victim of a
clear split within mainstream Fatah ranks, particularly since new arrangements
for the governance of Fatah were in the works to separate management from the
military.
As Safir said Sultan Abul Aynein was doomed to be in charge of management while
Kamal Medhat would head Fatah's military wing.
The daily also quoted a senior Lebanese security official as warning against
turning Ain el-Hilweh into another Nahr el-Bared in a bid to torpedo upcoming
Lebanese parliamentary elections.
Fatah spokesman in the West Bank Fahmi al-Zaarir said the group's leader in
Lebanon, Abbas Zaki, was with Medhat on the visit to Miyeh Miyeh refugee camp
but was not hurt since he left the camp a few hours earlier. It was not
immediately known if Zaki might have been the target.
No one has claimed responsibility for the roadside bomb which killed Medhat,
deputy of Palestine Liberation Organization representative in Lebanon Zaki, near
Miyeh Miyeh in southern Lebanon on Monday. Three other people, including two of
his bodyguards, were also killed in the midday blast.
There have been power struggles between competing factions, but Zaarir said Abul
Aynein, a senior Fatah commander in Lebanon, has warned that the bombing could
be the beginning of a "cycle" to target other Fatah officials in Lebanon.
Osama Hamdan, Lebanon's representative of the rival militant Hamas group, said
Medhat had played "a major role" in efforts to unify rival Palestinian factions,
especially between Fatah and Hamas.
Several rounds of talks between rivals Fatah and Hamas mediated by Egypt broke
down last week without a deal on a national unity government.
A government source on Tuesday was quoted as saying that Medhat's assassination
was a "warning" to Lebanese leaders.
According to the U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA), between 350,000
and 400,000 Palestinian refugees live in Lebanon -- a country of more than four
million inhabitants -- most of them living in the camps.
Other estimates put the number of refugees at 200,000 to 250,000 as UNRWA does
not strike off its lists the names of those who emigrate.(AFP)
Beirut, 25 Mar 09, 16:15
Taking Syria Seriously
By MIDDLE EAST TIMES
http://www.metimes.com/Editorial/2009/03/26/taking_syria_seriously/1866/
Published: March 26, 2009
ALLIANCES -- Syrian President Bashar
The Barack Obama administration's new engagement policy with Syria is a very
welcome development, but it needs to be pursued with more caution and balance
than may be the case.
Former U.S. President George W. Bush inadvertently actually got off to a good
start with Syria, but then he blew it. In the year following the Sept. 11, 2001
terrorist attacks, the Syrian government was greatly concerned that a furious
United States might turn its wrath on Damascus as well as Baghdad.
Accordingly, Syria, which has always been ideologically hostile toward and
ruthless in suppressing Islamist extremism within its own borders, provided a
flood of crucial intelligence to Washington on al-Qaida activities across the
Middle East. This Intel was of the greatest value in rolling back al-Qaida
threats against the United States, Western European nations, Saudi Arabia, Egypt
and Israel.
However, the Bush administration, riding high at the time, refused to grant any
diplomatic or trade concessions to Syria in response for this aid, and instead
increased their angry criticism of Syria's record on democracy and human rights.
Therefore a year after 9/11, a frustrated and furious Syrian government broke
off the intelligence sharing.
In the years that followed, the Syrian government made no serious effort to stop
the flow of mujahedin volunteers, high explosives, weapons and other supplies
for the Sunni Muslim insurgents operating in central Iraq down the Euphrates
valley. The inflexibility of the Bushies therefore proved very costly to the
United States and its armed forces operating in Iraq.
A serious U.S. engagement with Syria is long overdue and essential. Syria cannot
be ignored or outflanked on the key issues of Israeli-Arab peace, border
security for Iraq, the future of Lebanon or the reining in of Hezbollah, the
Syrian- and Iranian-backed Party of God in Lebanon.
However, there are already strong indications that Obama, Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton and their colleagues are coming to the revived 'Syrian track'
with unrealistic and even naïve expectations of 'peeling off' Syria from its
close association with the Islamic Republic of Iran.
However much Obama, Clinton or their Middle East envoy Dennis Ross sweet-talk
and promise Syrian President Bashar Assad, he isn't going to cut loose from
Tehran. The Iranian alliance has been the cornerstone of Syrian peace and
security for almost 30 years. There is no way the shrewd and cautious Assad is
going to risk the wrath of Iran and its powerful regional allies Hezbollah and
Hamas by letting that happen.
Obama and Clinton should certainly launch and maintain their dialog with the
Syrians and they should seek to cut serious, mutually advantageous deals with
Damascus on issues of common interest. The best way to defuse tensions with
Iran, indeed, would be to prove straight dealing with Syria that this U.S.
administration has the power and the will to grant economic concessions and make
deals on mutual security guarantees and intelligence sharing that would be of
substantial benefit to Damascus as well as Washington.
That would provide a far stronger practical incentive to Iran's leaders to take
Obama's diplomatic feelers seriously than just sending another, "Here I am"
video.
The Syrians aren't going to dump Iran. But in 2001-2, they still delivered big
for the United States. If they are approached seriously and with respect, they
may do so again.
Analysts divided over appointment of Syrian envoy
Some say move boosts sovereignty while others insist Lebanon remains 'a
bargaining chip'
By Michael Bluhm /Daily Star staff
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Analysis
BEIRUT: Interpretations differed starkly on Syria appointing an ambassador to
Lebanon, with one view seeing the move benefiting Lebanon and signaling Syria's
abandonment of designs on hegemony here, while the opposite view considers the
appointment inconsequential and Lebanon as distant as ever from genuine
sovereignty.
In one reading, Tuesday's Lebanese approval of Ali Abdel-Karim Ali as the first
Syrian ambassador to Lebanon represents "another positive step in establishing
formal relations between the two countries," said Paul Salem, head of the
Carnegie Middle East Center.
"It's part of a positive trend in general," he added, referring to the emerging
rapprochement between Syria and so-called moderate Arab states such as Saudi
Arabia and Egypt, as well as between Syria and the United States.
In Lebanon, the normalization of diplomatic relations with Syria should help
"reduce tensions" between the Syrian-backed March 8 coalition and the
anti-Syrian March 14 alliance, he said. Fostering formal ties between Damascus
and Beirut at this time appears "particularly useful because we're coming up to
contentious elections that will be followed by contentious negotiations to form
a government," Salem added. General elections will take place on June 7.
United Nations special coordinator for Lebanon Michael Williams and French
President Nicolas Sarkozy on Wednesday welcomed Ali's appointment, with Williams
saying the step would "contribute to stability in Lebanon."
In the larger picture, Salem said, Syria naming an ambassador, opening an
embassy and officially recognizing Lebanon add up to a dramatically new Syrian
approach toward Lebanon, although the ultimate intentions of Syrian President
Bashar Assad remain typically inscrutable.
"At one level, [appointing Ali] is a gesture, a concession," Salem added. "It
also reflects a shift in perspective in Syria. Bashar Assad has gone beyond the
idea of coming back into Lebanon per se. The Syrians shifted a bit from their
obsession of having to be in Lebanon and dominate Lebanon." After a 29-year
presence here, Syrian troops left Lebanon in April 2005 in the wake of former
Prime Minister Rafik Hariri's assassination
The effects of such a paradigm shift open the possibility for Lebanon to regain
real control over its territory after Israeli occupation and the Syrians'
military presence, he said."Syria keeping hands off of Lebanon is excellent for regaining sovereignty,"
Salem said.
In another analysis, the naming of an ambassador augurs important progress in
bilateral relations, but Syria maintains its desire to hold sway in Lebanon.
Appointing Ali means "institutionalizing" relations between two sovereign
countries, said retired General Elias Hanna, who teaches political science at
Notre Dame University.
"It's going to have a major effect later," Hanna said, adding that the move
would allow the two nations to push forward on demarcating their common border
and the issue of Lebanese detainees in Syrian prisons, he said.
"You cannot go back on these kinds of things," Hanna added. Establishing ties at
the level of ambassador also raises the question of whether to abolish or
restructure the Higher Syrian-Lebanese Council, he said.
However, even while moving forward on these diplomatic fronts, the Assad regime
still considers having power in Lebanon a "core strategic interest" it is not
about to surrender, Hanna said.
"The Syrians are planning to have more influence and leverage over Lebanon,"
Hanna said, adding that the behavior of pro-Syrian politicians in the run-up to
the June 7 poll would serve as an indicator of the Syrian approach.
"The Syrians with Lebanon are a major regional player; without Lebanon, they are
a regular player. It is imperative for Syria to have influence in Lebanon," he
said.
In a third interpretation, the naming of Ali means "nothing," and Syria's
loosening grip over Lebanon will only lead to another stronger actor vacuuming
up Damascus' lost influence, said Hilal Khashan, head of the department of
political studies and public administration at the American University of
Beirut.
"I don't believe that simply by naming an ambassador to Beirut, things will
improve," Khashan said, adding that the arrest of a Syrian man in connection
with a bomb found near former President Amin Gemayel's home demonstrated the
continued meddling of Damascus.
Paradoxically, keeping up appearances through growing diplomatic ties would help
insulate the Assad regime from charges of interference in Lebanon, Khashan
added. Lebanon would also not benefit from any potential ebbing of Syrian sway
here, because the politics of power are a "zero-sum game," he said.
"If Syria were to give more concessions on Lebanon, this doesn't mean that
Lebanon would become more sovereign - the loss of Syrian influence will be
picked up by some other player."
"Lebanon is not that important," he added. "Lebanon is a bargaining chip - it is
a pawn in a chess game. It is the weak link in the regional order. Usually a
weak link suffers most as a result of an agreement between more powerful
players."
With Lebanese politicians bogged down by their familiar inability to agree among
themselves, Iran has been taking advantage of its connection to Hizbullah -
Lebanon's most powerful political group - to increase its strength in Lebanon
since before the exit of Syrian troops, Khashan said.
"Actually, Syrian influence in Lebanon has weakened in the last 10 years or so,"
he said. "The weakening of Syrian influence meant an increase in the influence
of Iran. It is Iran who is pushing for greater influence in Lebanon, not Syria."
All the analysts said that Syria was establishing formal relations with Lebanon
under pressure from Arab and Western rivals, but they differed again as to the
quid pro quo Damascus would demand in exchange.
The growing intra-Arab entente between Syria and states such as Saudi Arabia and
Egypt played a role in the timing of Ali's appointment, with the appearance of
warming ties important to all the players ahead of the Arab league summit in
Doha on March 30, all the analysts said. In addition, Arab and Western nations
have recently intensified their efforts to decouple Syria from its partnership
with Iran, the analysts added.
Khashan said Assad could make concessions in Lebanon, but for Syria to divorce
Iran would require nothing less than a formal Israeli-Syria peace treaty. On the
other hand, Salem said Syria had more important interests then regaining the
Golan Heights, but in terms of achieving peace with Israel it made sense for
Damascus to extricate itself from Lebanon - Israel will demand that Syria
"deliver" Hizbullah as part of any peace deal, so the Syrians want to be able to
claim that their exit from Lebanon leaves the Shiite group an issue to be
negotiated with Hizbullah, Lebanon and Iran, Salem said.
"It gives [the Syrians] distance from that very difficult issue," he said.
"They're happy to emphasize that they're not in Lebanon."