LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
March 01/09

Bible Reading of the day.
Luke 18/9 till 14: He spoke also this parable to certain people who were convinced of their own righteousness, and who despised all others. “Two men went up into the temple to pray; one was a Pharisee, and the other was a tax collector.  The Pharisee stood and prayed to himself like this: ‘God, I thank you, that I am not like the rest of men, extortioners, unrighteous, adulterers, or even like this tax collector.  I fast twice a week. I give tithes of all that I get.’  But the tax collector, standing far away, wouldn’t even lift up his eyes to heaven, but beat his breast, saying, ‘God, be merciful to me, a sinner!’ I tell you, this man went down to his house justified rather than the other; for everyone who exalts himself will be humbled, but he who humbles himself will be exalted.”
 

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
ALC applauds Obama's stance on Lebanon-Daily Star 28/02/09
Regional entente could impact Tribunal's verdict/By: Michael Bluhm/Daily Star 28/02/09
With the launch of the Tribunal, our battle for justice has only just begun-The Daily Star 28/02/09

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for February 28/09
Suleiman, Sultan Qaboos for Arab Solidarity, Reconciliation-Naharnet
Qassem: Hizbullah Ready For Possibility of Confrontation With Israel-Naharnet
Makari: General Wafik Shucair responsible for abduction of Sader/Future News
International Tribunal Warrants Compulsory to All U.N. Members-Naharnet
Alert Level Raised to 100% with Launch of Hariri Tribunal-Naharnet
Saniora: Tribunal New Beginning For Ending Chain Assassinations-Naharnet
Hariri: Impossible to Oppose Tribunal Whether We Are Content With Results or Not-Naharnet
Franjieh to Lebanese Australians Don't Sell Your Conscience For Money-Naharnet
Jumblat Calls For Strengthening Ties on All Levels With Russia-Naharnet
Washington to Provide Army with Unmanned Military Planes-Naharnet
Tabourian Could Vote Against State Budget Unless Policy Changes-Naharnet
U.S. Takes Wait-and-See Approach on Syrian Interference in Lebanese Affairs-Naharnet
Netanyahu's advances rejected by Livni, hopes for broad-based coalition fade-(AFP)
Obama sets Iraq deadline, unveils new strategy-Reuters
Fatah, Hamas on uphill road to reconciliation-Inter Press Service
Obama: US will leave Iraq by August 2010-(AFP)
Second video shows Canadians abducted in Niger-(AFP)
'Israeli troops' seen raising flag again at Lebanon's Beaufort Castle-Daily Star
Hariri probe team 'committed' to uncovering truth-Daily Star
Accused bomber of synagogue in Paris gets second bail hearing-(AFP)
London pressed to deny visa to Hizbullah spokesman-Daily Star
State 'working to let emigrants vote/Daily Star
Cabinet paves way toward election monitoring-Daily Star
Oil prices see sharp decline on downbeat data on US economy-(AFP)
Bank Audi, MasterCard announce campaign offering cash prizes to lure touristsDaily Star

U.S. Takes Wait-and-See Approach on Syrian Interference in Lebanese Affairs
Naharnet/The U.S. State Department said it was taking a wait-and-see approach on Syria's alleged support for "terrorist organizations" and interference in Lebanon's domestic affairs. "We'll wait and see how the Syrians respond to our concerns about a number of things, such as, you know, support for terrorist organizations," Acting Department Spokesman, Robert Wood, said in a press briefing on Friday. Syria "isn't doing enough to serve as a good neighbor to Iraq" and is interfering "in Lebanese internal affairs," he said. His comment came in response to a question about a meeting between Jeffrey Feltman, the acting assistant secretary of state for the Middle East, and Syria's ambassador to Washington Imad Mustafa. "Ambassador Feltman pointed out a number of concerns that the United States has about Syrian behavior and activities. We felt it was important that we communicate, you know, our concerns directly to the Syrians at this level," Wood told reporters.
The nearly two-hour meeting on Thursday was the first such high-level session since September and came at the request of the Obama administration.
Mustafa told reporters the talks were "very constructive" and he expected there would be more meetings in the coming months.
"We believe that this meeting has explored possibilities between Syria and the United States to engage on a diplomatic and political level and also to discuss all issues of mutual concern," the ambassador said. "We think this is a first step and we believe there will be many further meetings."(AFP photo shows top U.S. diplomat for the Middle East Jeffrey Feltman) Beirut, 28 Feb 09, 11:12

International Tribunal Warrants Compulsory to All U.N. Members
Naharnet/The international tribunal's registrar, Robin Vincent, said the warrants issued by the court would be international and all members of the United Nations should abide by them. "All arrest warrants issued by the tribunal are compulsory international documents for all United Nations members," Vincent said in an interview with al-Mustaqbal newspaper on Saturday. He added that an international and non-Lebanese pre-trial judge has been appointed to look into the findings of the U.N. commission investigating ex-Premier Rafik Hariri's killing. The panel's mandate officially expires at midnight Saturday as the tribunal starts functioning the next day.
Vincent said that the final draft of the tribunal's bylaw would be approved once the judges meet at Leidschendam. He did not provide a date as to when the meeting would take place adding that the U.N. Secretary-General would like to keep the date confidential to protect the Lebanese judges who have to travel to The Hague to be sworn in.
The pre-trail judge would only begin work once he and tribunal judges are finished with placing the bylaw of the court that includes what could be termed as the legal criminal procedures related to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon.
Sunday's tribunal opening event at Leidschendam in the Netherlands is to be attended by 15 ambassadors representing donor nations and 90 media figures representing 70 media outlets (newspapers and satellite televisions).
"Very soon 11 judges will meet. (3 initial judges, 5 appeal judges, 2 substitute judges and a pre-trial judge) would all be sworn in prior to approving the tribunal's internal order," Vincent said.
He added that the 5 Appellate Court judges are also scheduled to meet (they include 2 Lebanese judges).
Vincent did not clarify whether a male or female judge would head the tribunal.
Despite the signature of a bilateral agreement between the United Nations and Lebanon regarding the tribunal, any other U.N. member country would also be concerned with this agreement, Vincent told al-Mustaqbal.
"Lebanon cannot sign an agreement with every U.N. member nation, and the U.N. here means all U.N. member states. In this regard the bilateral agreement with Lebanon forces all U.N. member states to fully cooperate with the tribunal, because the United Nations is party to this agreement," Vincent said.
Beirut, 28 Feb 09, 12:04

Saniora: Tribunal New Beginning For Ending Chain Assassinations
Naharnet/Prime Minister Fouad Saniora said that 4 years following the assassination of ex-premier Rafic Hariri and his companions the tribunal sets a new beginning for ending a chain of rampant assassinations in the country.
On the eve of the launching of the special tribunal for Lebanon Saniora issued a statement outlining his view on the issue.
1. The assassination of Rafik Hariri and his companions exemplified the peak of criminality and terrorism that controlled Lebanon and targeted political leaders and intellectual elites. All assassins remained unknown, and in time this became a given fact.
2. The Lebanese people erupted in March 14 2005 to say to the world that they no longer accept this situation to continue as is. That is to say that they no longer accepted these crimes to go unpunished.
3. The launching of the special tribunal 4 years following the Hariri assassination constitutes a new and serious beginning for ending the chain of unpunished assassinations in Lebanon.
4. The Lebanese do not seek vengeance, they only wish to protect their country and prevent the terrorists from persisting in their crime unpunished.
5. Great sacrifices made by the Lebanese for their freedom and independence are only matched by their determination and that of the international community in establishing this tribunal so that criminals are punished.
6. I would like to thank the United Nations Independent International Investigation Commission (UNIIIC) and Lebanese security forces for their great efforts in this field.
7. I also extend my full appreciation to the United Nations Security Council members, and friendly nations that continue to look after the just cause of Lebanon and for funding this tribunal. I also pay tribute to U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and his assistants for their thorough follow up on making the tribunal a reality. I also thank the Netherlands for accepting to host and facilitate the work of the tribunal. 8. It is important to ensure the Lebanese government's full support and cooperation to the tribunal and its work and our commitment to all its legal rulings. Beirut, 28 Feb 09, 14:49

Makari: General Wafik Shucair responsible for abduction of Sader
Date: February 27th, 2009 Source: El Maseera
Future News/Deputy House Speaker Fareed Makari held Airport Security Chief General Wafik Shucair responsible for the abduction of Citizen Yousseff Sader.
“The problem is that the airport is in a region out of the control of the Lebanese state”, he said. Airport Employee Yousseff Sader was kidnapped on the 12th of February near Beirut's Rafic Hariri International Airport by three unidentified assailants. Makari asserted in an interview to Al-Maseera magazine that the International Tribunal “has become a reality”. He pointed out that what happened after the 14th of February indicates that the other part is ready to resort to violence to hamper elections. “The other part is ready to resort to violent and bloody manners to confront ‘March 14’ and we are afraid that they would break out security incidents to hamper the elections especially that some of its leaders, mainly Michel Aoun ( Free Patriotic Movement leader), have started to prepare for such possibilities”, Makari said . He said no one had the right to attack Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir because Bkirki did not intervene in political or electoral issues.
About Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah’s words about possessing air defense weapons, Makari said it is “a new challenge to the project and the authority of the State and to the President of the Republic specifically."

Jumblat Calls For Strengthening Ties on All Levels With Russia
Naharnet/Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat during his three-day visit to Moscow called for strengthening ties with Russia on all levels.
Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov affirmed his country's support of Lebanon's sovereignty, political independence and territorial integrity. He stressed the need for continuing to solve all internal Lebanese issues on the basis of dialogue that takes everyone's interests into consideration.
Jumblat and Lavrov focused their discussions on the implementation of all agreements reached by the various Lebanese political forces at Doha in May 2008.
Lavrov also briefed Jumblat on Russian efforts for continuing the Middle East peace process leading to a just and comprehensive settlement in the region, including the Israeli-Lebanese and Israeli-Syrian tracks. Beirut, 28 Feb 09, 14:09

Franjieh to Lebanese Australians Don't Sell Your Conscience For Money
Naharnet/Marada Leader Suleiman Franjieh issued a televised statement to the Lebanese in Australia on Saturday urging them to come to Lebanon on June 7th and vote at the parliamentary elections. "Some come to you and offer money, we know the sources of these funds, our regions are only represented by their people, those that go to Australia to work won't sell their conscience for money," the Marada leader said. Franjieh added saying: "We thank all those that come from Australia to practice their right to vote, we affirm that we have no differences with the FPM, we are allied with those that were against Syria at the time when being an enemy of Syria lead to defeat." He commented on the election's outcome and the form of democracy in Lebanon in saying: "To say that a majority governs and a minority opposes is true at numerical democracies but not in Lebanon that can only be governed through consensus. Any one not wishing to share in governing contributes to a tense situation." Beirut, 28 Feb 09, 15:08

Hariri: Impossible to Oppose Tribunal Whether We Are Content With Results or Not
Naharnet/The leader of the al-Mustaqbal Movement MP Saad Hariri, told the Reuters news agency on Friday "we fought, sacrificed for this tribunal for 4 years. It would be impossible for us to oppose it whether we content with its results or not."
The special tribunal for Lebanon will be launched on Sunday March 1 at the Hague and will bring to justice all those that tribunal's prosecutor general would say are involved in the 2005 assassination of Lebanon's ex-premier and others. Hariri whose father Rafik was killed in a massive bomb on February 14 2005 said: "I fully trust that the special tribunal would do its job and arrive at all the facts (relating to the assassination) and punish the guilty.
"Lebanon has been suffering from assassinations for 30 years from one president to another from one prime minister to another, to clergy to journalists. For the first time we see that justice will take its course," Hariri said. He added that his family does not consider the tribunal a victory adding: "our loss is great, no tribunal will ever bring back Rafik Hariri, neither would return any of our friends and loved ones back. Victory is for justice, if we ever achieved anything for Lebanon it is justice."
Hariri ruled out any U.S.-Iranian-Syrian rapprochement, or improved Syrian-saudi relations would influence the tribunal's judgment.
"The issue is far removed from politics now, it is an issue of international justice, there are 300 investigators in this tribunal what would they do with them? Look at what happened at the previous international tribunals were there any settlements? " Hariri asked. He referred to the issue of Darfur , and the assassination of Pakistani political leader Benazir Bhutto as examples. Beirut, 28 Feb 09, 13:41

'Israeli troops' seen raising flag again at Lebanon's Beaufort Castle
By Anna Sussman /Daily Star staff
Saturday, February 28, 2009
BEIRUT: Lebanon's Beaufort Castle, which featured in the less-than-Oscar-worthy "Beaufort" last year, is having another go in front of the camera. The Crusader-era castle, used as a base for Israeli soldiers in South Lebanon until the 2000 withdrawal, was the scene for "The Living Martyr," a Syrian-made drama that tells the story of Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon - this time from a Lebanese perspective. Syrian director Najdat Anzour told the Israeli paper Yediot Aharonot that the script relies on "stories and testimonies that haven't been published about the Israeli withdrawal in the war."During the filming, Anzour flew the Israeli flag over the castle, a move that probably had to be okay'ed by Hizbullah. It may have also sowed some temporary confusion among the local population. He also dressed Syrian actors in Israeli military uniforms. Anzour is the son of the famous Syrian director Ismail Anzour. He has directed hundreds of TV commercials and many TV serial dramas that are often broadcast during Ramadan. Some of his recent work, which has focused on jihad, has been seen as critical of terrorism and provoked death threats, but at the same time attracted millions of viewers across the Arab region.

Hariri probe team 'committed' to uncovering truth
Bellemare leaves for Hague
By Dalila Mahdawi
Daily Star staff/Saturday, February 28, 2009
BEIRUT: As the United Nations Independent Investigation Commission (IIIC) probing the assassination of former Premier Rafik Hariri wrapped up Friday, chief investigator Daniel Bellemare said the body remained committed to uncovering the truth behind Hariri's death.
"I want to reassure everybody that my team and I will do everything that is humanly and legally possible to ensure that the truth emerges and that those responsible for the crimes that fall within our jurisdiction are eventually brought to justice," the Canadian jurist said in an open letter addressed to the Lebanese people.
Bellemare left for The Hague Friday, where he will assume the role of Prosecutor for the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), tasked with trying suspects of Hariri's killing. The billionaire and five-time premier was killed with 22 others in a massive car bomb as his convoy passed through Beirut's Ain al-Mreisseh seafront on February 14, 2005. His slaying was the first in a string of political assassinations targeting Lebanese anti-Syrian figures, which Damascus has consistently denied involvement in.
Although the investigation was moving to the Netherlands, a field office would be opened in Beirut and would "serve as a base" for the investigators, Bellemare said.
"The STL is not after revenge: it is after justice. Everybody, be they witnesses, detainees or accused, will be treated with dignity," he said.
Four former generals still detained in connection to Hariri's killing were on Thursday refused bail by investigative magistrate Sakr Sakr. LAF Intelligence head Raymond Azar, Mustafa Hamdan of the Presidential Guard, Internal Security Forces director Ali Hajj and Jamil al-Sayyed from General Security, were taken into custody in 2005 under the orders of former chief investigator Detlev Mehlis. Sakr rejected a similar appeal made by the men on Wednesday.
None of the former officials have been formally charged, but were brought into custody on suspicion of terrorism, murder and attempted murder - accusations that the men's lawyers say are based on the false testimony of a witness that was later retracted by investigators. The Lebanese authorities have agreed to transfer the men to The Hague within two months of the STL's launch, where Bellemare can push for their release or continued incarceration.
Sayyed's lawyer Akram Azuri on Friday told AFP that he was "extremely optimistic"
the four generals would be released shortly. "They have a clear conscience, they have no problem with the tribunal. They are impatient for it to get under way," he said. "If they are not freed [in Lebanon], their release [by the tribunal] will be imminent after March 1, I'm convinced of it," the lawyer said.
Earlier this week, UN chief Ban Ki-moon issued his fourth report on the investigation's progress, in which he said he was "pleased to report that all necessary steps and measures have been taken" toward the tribunal's commencement and that he would "continue to ensure that the Special Tribunal is able to achieve its mandate in the most effective manner."
Meanwhile on Thursday, a Cabinet decision to sign a memorandum of understanding with the tribunal was postponed to grant ministers of the Hizbullah-led March 8 coalition more time to study the proposal. The memorandum calls for organized relations between Bellemare and the Lebanese judiciary and will be discussed by the Cabinet next week, An-Nahar said on Friday.
Cabinet ministers did however approve the installation of cameras outside the homes of officials involved in the tribunal, as well as at the Justice Palaces of Baabda, Jdeideh and Sidon, An-Nahar said.
The newspaper also quoted an unidentified European source as saying Western countries had advised Damascus to form a team of lawyers to defend Syrian officials who could be accused of involvement in Hariri's killing. "The Syrians should defend themselves, because no country is ready to be charged" with that role, the source told An-Nahar.
French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, meanwhile, said Thursday that France and Saudi Arabia's support for the STL would not waver despite efforts to improve relations with Syria. "Paris and Riyadh are in agreement over supporting the STL regardless of any attempts of rapprochement between France and Syria and between Saudi Arabia and Syria," he said at a joint press conference in Paris with Saudi counterpart Prince Saud al-Faisal.
The two countries had both contributed to financing the tribunal "since the beginning," he said, adding he hoped Hariri's killers would be found.
Speaking on behalf of the March 14 coalition, Nayla Tueni on Friday said the alliance would launch a "popular movement" upon the launching of the STL. Nayla, who is the daughter of assassinated An-Nahar publisher Gebran Tueni, promised loyalty to "all those who sacrificed for Lebanon" and noted March 1 would stand as "the day when truth triumphs over crime."
Her comments were echoed by Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, who told the German Press Agency that the tribunal marked "a turning point toward ending political assassinations in Lebanon" and ensuring that those responsible "would be punished."
In the first statement of its kind on Friday, Hizbullah urged the Lebanese judiciary "not to submit to outside pressure and immediately release the [four former] security chiefs."
"The security chiefs' detainment is arbitrary," the Hizbullah statement said. - With AFP

Amnesty warns against selective application of justice in Lebanon
BEIRUT: The Lebanese authorities must go beyond the narrow mandate of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon to ensure that perpetrators of other human rights violations in the country were also prosecuted, rights group Amnesty International said on Friday.
"The Special Tribunal alone cannot provide sufficient response to the long pattern of impunity that has persisted in Lebanon," said Malcolm Smart, Director of Amnesty International's Middle East and North Africa Program.
"The establishment of the Tribunal is a positive step that could help ensure justice for the serious crimes it is to investigate. But if it is to gain credibility and public confidence, it must be accompanied by complementary measures that address the grave human rights abuses of the past, as well as those that continue in the present," said Smart.
The mandate of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon was "by far" the narrowest of any international tribunal, the London-based group said. "This means that it will do nothing to address the enormous number of other grave human rights abuses committed in Lebanon in recent decades, raising concern that the justice being promoted is politically selective."
Amnesty called upon the Lebanese authorities to launch impartial investigations into all allegations of human rights violations that were not included in the tribunal's mandate, including the killings of Palestinian civilians at the Nahr al-Bared refugee camp during fighting in 2007, violations committed during the 1975-90 Civil War and reports of torture and abusive detention. "The authorities should also address the situation of four men who are being detained apparently in connection with the investigation into the killing of Rafik Hariri and whose detentions have been ruled arbitrary by a UN expert group," the organization said, referring to former security officials Raymond Azar, Mustapha Hamdan, Ali Hajj and Jamil al-Sayyed.
"The resolve to ensure justice in the case of Rafik Hariri contrasts markedly with the repeated failures of the Lebanese system to deliver justice for other political killings and human rights abuses," said Smart. "This creates a perception that some are considered more deserving of justice than others and presents a clear challenge to the credibility of the Special Tribunal." The director added: "The international community needs now to press the Lebanese authorities to focus their attention on delivering truth and justice for the full range of victims of human rights abuses in Lebanon, regardless of the profile of the victims or the presumed identity of the perpetrators."

Regional entente could impact Tribunal's verdict
Court could serve as a toll with which to 'squeeze syrians in evolving negotiations'
By Michael Bluhm /Daily Star staff
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Analysis
BEIRUT: Holland's The Hague will witness the launch of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon on Sunday, but the ultimate impact of the tribunal depends mostly on the outcome of the growing entente between Syria and the US and US allies in the Middle East, a number of analysts told The Daily Star on Friday.
Syria endured years of international isolation after many here and abroad blamed it for the February 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, but Damascus has since last summer been much in demand among its Arab brethren, France and the United States. Jeffrey Feltman, acting US assistant secretary of state for the Middle East, met with Syria's Ambassador to the US Imad Mustafa on Thursday, while Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem visited Saudi Arabia on Tuesday.
Rumors have long swirled that the tribunal would function as a bargaining chip in the standoff between the US and its allies here on the one hand and the camp of Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hizbullah on the other. While the analysts said the tribunal would not simply fade away or never conduct a trial, they also acknowledged that political considerations could limit the tribunal's scope.
"The rapprochement with Syria is key to determining the final verdict," said Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, who wrote the 2002 book "Hizbullah: Politics and Religion" and teaches political science at Lebanese American University. "Syria is key to any regional stability, from Lebanon to Iraq."
Arab states and the US are trying to decouple Syria from Iran, with Arab countries perhaps willing to negotiate about the tribunal if Syria will help keep Iraq from falling entirely under Tehran's sway, said retired General Elias Hanna, who teaches political science at Notre Dame University
"This is embarrassing for the Arabs, if Iraq is under Iranian patronage," he said.
The US also wants to pry Syria away from Iran, but these efforts put new President Barack Obama in the delicate situation of engaging Syria while not abandoning the commitments the US made to Lebanon in the wake of Hariri's killing, Hanna added. Former US President George W. Bush extended strong verbal and material backing to Lebanon's March 14 political alliance, which remains wary that the US might trade on the tribunal to gain other concessions from Damascus, Saad-Ghorayeb said.
The diplomatic courtship between the US and Syria has only begun, leaving it far too early to draw any conclusions about whether any decoupling from Iran or influence on the tribunal will occur, the analysts said. The intentions of Syrian President Bashar Assad also remain typically inscrutable, and should his recent openness turn out to be a ruse, a deal on the tribunal will certainly not come to pass, said Saad-Ghorayeb.
"It's too soon to bet that Syria will be persuaded to leave the resistance front and join the moderate Arab states," she said.
Hanna said he discounted any conspiracy theories that the US, France and their allies had long planned to defang the tribunal in exchange for Syria divorcing its regional partners. Not only do Syria's ties to Iran run deep, but the UN Security Council, the US and the Netherlands would not have gotten so involved in setting up and paying tens of millions of dollars for the tribunal only to abandon it, he said.
"Nobody can control [the tribunal], because it's too complex to be controlled," Hanna said, adding that the March 1 inauguration of the tribunal's headquarters signified at least that investigators must have made some progress in the case. "You wouldn't go and build such a complex organization only for fun." However, he said that the tribunal would serve as a handy tool to squeeze the Syrians in the evolving negotiations. "Maybe the Americans or the Saudis will use this tribunal from time to time as a hammer against the Syrians," Hanna said.
Saad-Ghorayeb, meanwhile, said Sunday's christening did not represent a landmark in the case, with four years having elapsed since Hariri's assassination and no indictment filed - and with more years almost certain to elapse before any trial begins.
"It took four years for the tribunal to open its doors," she said. "I don't think it signals any kind of strategic milestone.
"The tribunal is going to take several years to come up with a verdict, anyway. It also allows time for the US and other political actors to shape the outcome," she added.
Hilal Khashan, head of the department of political studies and public administration at the American University of Beirut, said the tribunal would surely be emasculated by political considerations. Damascus recognizes how badly its rivals want it to switch sides and so Syria will wring every last advantage out of such a deal - including neutering the tribunal, Khashan said.
"The Saudis have been desperately trying to get the Syrians on their side," he said. "I'm sure the Syrians will not accept to be part of rapprochement unless they get what they want." For example, Thursday's announcement that Hamas had agreed to form a unity government demonstrated Syria's willingness to cooperate with the West - because of Syria's influence over Hamas - and Assad would not be so compliant without quid pro quo, Khashan added. "I see headway, and the Syrians are not doing that for free."
The Special Tribunal for Lebanon would probably become part of the tribute to be paid to Damascus, he said.
"The tribunal will be scaled down and limited mostly to Lebanese officials," Khashan said. "Should the case of those indicted go beyond the borders, it will affect a few Syrian security officers.
"I really believe that the list of those indicted, when it is released, will not be consequential. I don't think the tribunal will ever put on display or order the arrest of key Lebanese politicians," he added.
Regardless of outcome, the tribunal will have a range of effects in Lebanon - it has, for instance, become yet another campaign issue in the pivotal June 7 general elections, Hanna said. March 14 politicians have tried to lure voters by saying only a vote for their parties will ensure the continuity of the tribunal, Saad-Ghorayeb said.
On the bright side, the formal establishment of the tribunal in Holland at least reduces by one the number of issues separating the March 14 and March 8 camps, which had frequently sparred over the court, Saad-Ghorayeb added.
"Now that it's up and running, it at least removes one obstacle for some kind of agreement between the two sides," she said. "It's a very positive development that this took place before the elections. It's good that it's out of the way."
Many potential pitfalls still await Lebanon because of the tribunal, the analysts said. Some citizens will likely take umbrage at which Lebanese judges were chosen or passed over for the tribunal, Saad-Ghorayeb said. Once the tribunal begins indicting suspects and calling witnesses, the pressure will rise dramatically on various individuals and groups implicated, with the possibility that a verdict viewed as unjust could spark violence, the analysts said.
In the "worst-case scenario," Syria might react by unleashing turmoil in Lebanon if the tribunal puts the Assad regime in a vise, Hanna said.
"If the Syrians feel that it's going to be used against them, and there's no way out ... from a logical point of view they're going to do something in Lebanon," he said.
A verdict convicting Leban-ese in the crime might also spur many here to demand that similar tribunals bring to justice those involved in political crimes outside the mandate of the tribunal, such as the atrocities committed during the 1975-90 Civil War, Saad-Ghorayeb said.
"Even if the real culprits are brought are brought to justice, it's a double-edged sword of sorts," she said. "The UN is setting a very dangerous precedent for itself in determining which crimes to investigate. This is not going to promote reconciliation in Lebanon at all."
UN and tribunal officials have long said they hoped the tribunal would bring about an end to impunity for those responsible for the decades of politically motivated violence here, but as long as the wobbly Lebanese state continues to be weaker than various militias and foreign security agencies operating here, the culture of impunity is unlikely to end, Khashan said.
"None of the attacks within Lebanon in the past 60 years have been solved," he said. "I don't see any reason why Hariri's assassination would end up any differently."

ALC applauds Obama's stance on Lebanon
By The Daily Star
Saturday, February 28, 2009
BEIRUT: The American Lebanese Coalition (ALC) applauded in a statement this week the US administration's position on Lebanon expressed in recent announcements "especially the ones by President Barrack Obama and Secretary of State Clinton on the fourth anniversary of Prime Minister Hariri's assassination." "The assertion that the United States will continue to support Lebanon's sovereignty and independence, the legitimate institutions of the Lebanese state, and the Lebanese people evokes much-needed energy and faith to continue the struggle against the forces of oppression and hate that threaten the Lebanese nation," the ALC statement said. "After years of abandonment, it was America's firm stand in 2005 on the side of the Lebanese people and the Cedar Revolution that helped in the liberation of Lebanon from 30 years of Syrian occupation," it added. According to ALC, the renewal of the US' commitment to Lebanon's sovereignty and freedom through the "full implementation of United Nations Resolutions particularly 1559 and 1701, is a clear expression of this administration's stance, when it comes to the principles of US policy toward Lebanon." "We particularly appreciate the strong backing by the US administration of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, for the sake of justice and the rights of the victims," the ALC said. "As mentioned in the president's and the secretary's statements, the upcoming Lebanese parliamentary elections are crucial for the prospects of peace and prosperity for the Lebanese and will determine the path of Lebanon for years to come," the ALC statement said. "Moreover," it added, "regional stability and hope for peace in the Middle East will depend greatly on a moderate, free, and democratic Lebanon." - The Daily Star

London pressed to deny visa to Hizbullah spokesman
By Andrew Wander /Daily Star staff
Saturday, February 28, 2009
BEIRUT: Hizbullah spokesman Ibrahim Moussawi has denied making "anti-Semitic and inflammatory" comments that have thrust him into the center of a political row in Britain over whether he should be allowed into the country.
Moussawi, who holds a doctorate from the University of Birmingham, has been asked to speak at London's School of Oriental and African Studies, but the government is coming under pressure to refuse him a visa.
The British Conservative party has demanded that Moussawi be refused entry to the country due to his links to Hizbullah. He is alleged to have referred to Jews as "a lesion on the forehead of history," and the pro-Israeli lobby has reportedly thrown its weight behind a campaign to have him banned.
But speaking to The Daily Star, Moussawi denied that he had ever made the comments, which he said were in contravention of Muslim belief. "It's one of the basic pillars of Islam to believe in all heavenly religions," he said. "Judaism and Christianity are internalized in Islam, so you can't be a Muslim without accepting them."
He said he had been unfairly misquoted by the press. "I could never say something like that," he said. "What I said was the Israeli occupation is a lesion on the forehead of history."
In a letter to the British government, the Conservatives accused Moussawi of being "a known extremist" and said he had "engaged in fostering, encouraging or spreading extremism and hatred."
"You will be aware that Mr. Moussawi has links to Hizbullah, which is a proscribed terrorist organization in many countries," the letter says. "In line with your 'tough new measures,' I trust that if Mr. Moussawi applies for entry, you will use your powers to exclude him."
Moussawi said he was surprised that the Conservatives had tried to have him banned from the country because he had met with senior Conservative politician Michael Ancram in the past.
"Many of my friends say that I'm an excellent candidate to be a liberal Muslim," he added.
British newspapers, however, have leapt on Moussawi's case as evidence of government "double standards" after a far-right Dutch MP was barred from entering Britain to show a controversial film attacking Islam. His visa application was refused on the grounds that that his visit would affect "community harmony."
Moussawi has been banned from other countries in the past. In 2007 he was refused a visa to Ireland and is also barred from entering the United States because of his links with Hizbullah.
Before becoming Hizbullah's spokesman earlier this year, he edited the pro-opposition newspaper Al-Intiqad, and had previously worked for Al-Manar, the group's official television station.
The British Home office said that it had not yet received a visa request from Moussawi and considers such cases on an individual basis.
"The government opposes extremism in all its forms," a Home Office spokesman said. "We are determined to prevent individuals coming to the UK who want to spread extremism, or hatred in our communities."
"Exclusion decisions are based on hard evidence not hearsay, and are targeted at those who seek to stir up tensions and provoke others to violence regardless of their origins and beliefs."
Moussawi has visited Britain to carry out public speaking engagements on at least two previous occasions. He was granted visas in both 2007 and 2008, despite vocal opposition to his visits by Conservative politicians seeking to score political points against the Labor government by portraying them as "soft" on extremism.
Only the armed wing of Hizbullah is considered a terrorist organization by the British government. Speaking in Beirut at the end of last year, British Foreign Secretary David Miliband said there were no plans to add the political wing of Hizbullah to the list of terrorist organizations. "Politics, not violence, is the way forward in Lebanon," he said.

Cabinet paves way toward election monitoring
By Nicholas Kimbrell /Daily Star staff
Saturday, February 28, 2009
BEIRUT: The Lebanese Cabinet has approved a decree submitted by the Interior Ministry setting conditions for international election observation for the June 7 parliamentary polls.
A number of international election watchdogs have expressed interest in participating in the early summer contest, and Thursday night's decision formally allows Interior Minister Ziyad Baroud to receive requests and issue invitations to organizations who want to participate in the process.
It was a "ministerial decree submitted by the Ministry of Interior for Cabinet approval," Osama Safa, director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies told The Daily Star. "The Interior Ministry can now issue licenses."
The Cabinet's decision to permit international observation does not require parliamentary approval.
Certain parties have already expressed an interest in participating in the elections as observers. The National Democratic Institute (NDI), the Carter Center and the European Commission are among those bodies offering their assistance - a group of well-respected observers that Safa called "the usual suspects."
During a recent visit to Beirut, EU External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrerro-Waldner said that the EU, which is providing monetary and technical assistance to the Interior Ministry ahead of the elections, would also be happy to participate as an observer. "We welcome international observers ... particularly the EU," she said.
In addition, former US President Jimmy Carter, while visiting Lebanon in December, expressed his organization's interest in acting as election observers. The Carter Center, founded by Carter and his wife, Rosalynn, in 1982, has a long history of international election observation.
NDI, who worked in partnership with the Carter Center in the 2005 Palestinian elections, has also voiced its willingness to participate in the elections. Joseph Hall, NDI's senior adviser for the Middle East and North Africa, confirmed the institute's desire to observe the polls.
"We have expressed out interest," he told The Daily Star on Friday.
Hall also explained that once Thursday's decree was published in the Official Gazette, interested parties could formally request to observe the polls and the Interior Minister could extend invitations.
Nadine Ferighal, coordinator and legal consultant for the Civil Campaign for Electoral Reform (CCER), told The Daily Star on Friday that the move had been expected. But she also noted that the introduction of international observers to the process could have both positive and negative consequences.
"Observers, they don't speak the language and sometimes they are not acquainted with the electoral culture that we have here in Lebanon," Ferighal said. "The plus side is the exposure that these observers get is much larger than what we get as Lebanese."
Safa also warned that international observers could not ensure the integrity of the polls. "Around the world, observers have no impact on the integrity of the elections," he said. They can observe and report irregularities and violations, he noted, but they cannot change the process, or the procedural guidelines governing the elections.
And Safa voiced serious dissatisfaction with the electoral law, passed last September, which will govern the 2009 polls. In a recent analysis piece on the upcoming elections, Safa noted, among other concerns, that the law did not put appropriate curbs on fraud and intimidation.
Speaking with The Daily Star Friday, he called the law "undemocratic" and suggested that the elections could be "unbalanced and unfair."
Ferighal also expressed her disappointment with the electoral law, saying that certain reforms the CCER had advocated had been left out of the law or not fully adopted. These reforms include the adoption of proportional representation, lowering the voting age to 18 and certain protections regarding election day anonymity.

With the launch of the Tribunal, our battle for justice has only just begun
Daily Star/Saturday, February 28, 2009
Editorial
Sunday's launch of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon represents a milestone for the Lebanese people, but this country's pursuit of justice and the rule of law has only just begun. The court will eventually try - and hopefully convict - suspects in the killing of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and 22 others, and it may also expand its mandate to include other high-profile assassinations that have occurred since 2005. But much remains to be done before this country can rid itself of a long-entrenched culture of impunity in which murder and other crimes have gone unpunished - or have never even been seriously investigated.
In fact this status quo has frequently served as an argument for those who have questioned the need for the tribunal. Many have argued that pursuing justice for one elite group of martyrs, while ignoring other assassinations and crimes against other leaders, ordinary citizens, foreign nationals or refugees, seems like a politically selective application of justice. The only flaw in this argument is that it betrays a cynical form of acceptance of the way things currently are. The goal should not be to prevent justice - even if it is selective - but rather to promote the consistent application of the rule of law.
Upholding the rule of law in Lebanon is nearly impossible under the current circumstances, because the country's judiciary is in a state of disrepair. Lebanon's courts currently lack the ability to act independently of the executive or legislative branches, or to render verdicts without coming under some form of political pressure. Ordinary citizens have so little faith in the ability of the judiciary to deliver fair and impartial rulings that they have frequently resorted to extra-judicial means of resolving disputes or exacting justice.
Parliamentary majority leader MP Saad Hariri has pledged that he and his allies in the March 14 Forces will accept the results of the Tribunal process, whatever they might be. These remarks send a strong signal that he and his allies are not seeking revenge, but are instead striving to bring the era of impunity to an end. These words will resonate with Lebanese citizens all the more if they are matched with action. The alliance will soon release a political platform ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections, and one hopes that their agenda will prioritize the need to enhance the independence of the judiciary. Such a gesture would go a long way toward demonstrating their commitment toward ensuring justice for all.