LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
October 07/09

Bible Reading of the day
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 10:38-42. As they continued their journey he entered a village where a woman whose name was Martha welcomed him. She had a sister named Mary (who) sat beside the Lord at his feet listening to him speak. Martha, burdened with much serving, came to him and said, "Lord, do you not care that my sister has left me by myself to do the serving? Tell her to help me." The Lord said to her in reply, "Martha, Martha, you are anxious and worried about many things.  There is need of only one thing. Mary has chosen the better part and it will not be taken from her."

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
Extensive Interview with Dr. Walid Phares/Jihad like Yoga/October 08/09
The United Arab Emirates and the Lebanese Scolding Party/By: Jameel al-Theyabi/October 06/09
Hizbollah embroiled in Ponzi scheme/Telegraph October 06/09
Syrian-Saudi meeting contributes to stability, Israel might drag Iran into confrontation/Now Lebanon/October 06/09
Aoun and the Blunt Sword of Naturalization/By: Husam Itani/October 06/09

A new consensus/Now Lebanon/October 06/09
Ezzedine and elections at the top of Hizbullah’s general conference agenda/By: Salim Khoury/Future News/ October 06/09

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for October 06/09
Geagea Gives President Suleiman 10 days to Confirm a Cabinet/Naharnet
Guaino: France Won't Solve the Crisis, but will Help Solve it/Naharnet
MP. Ter Sarkissian: martyrs and sacrifices cannot be forgotten/Future News
Rumors of Alleged Arab Terroists in Lebanon are Unfounded/Naharnet
MP. Ter Sarkissian: martyrs and sacrifices cannot be forgotten/Future News
Washington Informs Jumblat that U.S. Rejects to Meet Him Individually-Naharnet
Berri Won't Give Up Foreign, Health Ministries to Aoun-Naharnet
LF sues Yaacoub for “slander in line with Al-Watan’s reports”/Now Lebanon
Suleiman, Assad in 'Near Daily' Contact-Naharnet
Two Lebanese jailed for Baku plot-BBC News
Engaging the Arab World on the Iran Nuclear Crisis/World Politics Review
Universities await police requests for information on students-Daily Star
Williams after Meeting Hariri: Lebanon Needs Government to Tackle Challenges/Future News
Aoun: Comprehensive Agreement to Be Announced Soon
-Naharnet
Azerbaijan Jails 2 Lebanese 15 years for Israeli Embassy Plot
-Naharnet
Siddiq Sentenced to Six Months for Entering UAE on Fake Passport
-Naharnet
Aoun refrains from positive talk on cabinet-Daily Star
Lebanon consumer confidence shows slight drop-Daily Star
Merrill Lynch projects growth in Lebanon at 5.8 percent in 2009-Daily Star
Experts explore ways to create culture of organ donation in Lebanon-Daily Star
Press Federation 'cannot interfere' in media finances-Daily Star
Conference stresses need to communicate with HIV patients-Daily Star
Japanese archaeologists discover new Roman grotto in south-Daily Star
Academics from around globe assess state of feminism in Arab world-Daily Star
Iran vows 'positive' approach to next round of nuclear talks/AFP
King Abdullah to visit Syria this week amid warming tie-AFP
Kabbani calls for Aoun to be more flexible/Future News

Washington Informs Jumblat that U.S. Rejects to Meet Him Individually
Naharnet/Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat has notified U.S. Ambassador Michele Sison during their latest meeting that he is no longer a part of the March 14 coalition, but that he remains to be part of the parliamentary majority. Information made available to Naharnet said Jumblat's remarks came in response that had been conveyed to him by Sison from the State Department concerning his request to meet officials in the new U.S. Administration to brief them on his stance on developments in Lebanon and the region and on his viewpoint regarding the need for American openness to Syria. Washington's response to Jumblat's request was that the U.S. Administration welcomes the PSP leader's visit but only as part of a delegation that represents political parties and figures within the March 14 alliance, and that there was no chance for individual appointments. This is what prompted Jumblat to declare that he is no longer a part of March 14 forces. In this respect, Jumblat said in remarks published Tuesday by the daily As-Safir that he has responded to Sison's question on what the U.S. can offer Lebanon, saying: "We only ask for your support for the Syrian-Saudi rapprochement." The Druze leader has also reiterated his commitment to what has become known as the "S-S" equation, a reference to Syria and Saudi Arabia, stressing that he has no plans to visit Damascus before PM-designate Saad Hariri initiates the trip. In his weekly editorial in al-Anbaa on Monday, Jumblat expressed hope that the Syrian-Saudi summit due to be held in Damascus on Tuesday would be an "occasion to push for normal relations between the Lebanese and Syrians." Beirut, 06 Oct 09, 08:34

Berri Won't Give Up Foreign, Health Ministries to Aoun

Naharnet/No decision was taken regarding the issue of names and portfolios during a meeting on Monday between PM-designate Saad Hariri and Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun as the two sides maintained a wait-and-see attitude, pending the position of other political parties vis-à-vis the issue of exchanging key Cabinet seats. FPM sources told the daily An-Nahar in remarks published Tuesday that Hariri and Aoun exchanged ideas and discussed proposals, but that nothing has been made final. Al-Liwaa, however, quoted Parliamentary sources as saying that Hariri and Aoun have agreed to maintain a 30-seat national unity government based on the 15-10-5 formula and to overcome the issue of bringing in election losers. The sources said the two leaders also agreed that Aoun would sit with Hariri to discuss the names of ministers he wishes to bring to the new government after having picked them. On the issue of rotation of Cabinet portfolios, Al-Liwaa said recent contacts between the FPM, AMAL and Hizbullah leaderships did not find positive results from Speaker Nabih Berri's AMAL movement with regards to the possibility of giving Jebran Bassil the foreign or health ministries. Beirut, 06 Oct 09, 11:10

Suleiman, Assad in 'Near Daily' Contact
Naharnet/President Michel Suleiman awaits the outcome of talks between Syrian President Bashar Assad and Saudi King Abdullah that would certainly have an impact at the domestic level.
Suleiman, according to the daily As-Safir, stressed that he is in "nearly daily" contact with Assad as well as with the Saudi Kingdom. Suleiman said he was trying to do his work in line with the Constitution in order to reach an agreement on the new government that would, in turn, launch reforms in various areas. Pan-Arab Asharq al-Awsat newspaper, citing Lebanese sources, said Suleiman was likely to join the Assad-Abdullah talks if he was invited. Al-Liwaa daily, however, quoted political circles as ruling out Suleiman's participation in the summit "so long as a Cabinet lineup has not yet been reached." It said a visit by PM-designate Saad Hariri was likely to take place within the framework of Syrian-Lebanese summit.
Beirut, 06 Oct 09, 10:01


Ter Sarkissian: martyrs and sacrifices cannot be forgotten

Date: October 6th, 2009/Source: LBC
Serge Ter Sarkissian of the Lebanon First bloc said Tuesday the martyrs and the struggle of the factions that won the parliamentary elections must be taken into consideration in forming the cabinet. “The process of cabinet formation is moving forward in a rapid pace and I call on all political factions to surpass their differences to ensure Lebanon’s deliverance,” he told the Lebanese Broadcasting Corporation station, though allies must maintain their unity.”“The Armenians outside their homeland have the right to discuss the protocol agreement reached between Turkey and Armenia. The Armenian authority which studied it neglected the fact that Armenian expatriates and those residing in Lebanon have the right to look at it,” he maintained.
“Openness on Turkey has a very important regional background and opening borders between Turkey and Armenia will have a positive economic impact on Europe more than the Iranian influence. Yet this does not imply giving up on the Armenian cause.”

Ezzedine and elections at the top of Hizbullah’s general conference agenda

Date: October 6th, 2009/Salim Khoury
Future News
Hizbullah will hold its general conference before the New Year, after having held several preliminary sessions for its organizational committees during the last few months. The General Conference, which is Hizbullah’s final session this year, is expected to include decisions at the organizational, political, administrative, and ideological levels.
The main developments that occurred over the past few months will impact the conference, its agenda, as well as its outcome.
The first development is financial, and was represented through the bankruptcy of Salah Ezzedine.
Though Hizbullah denies any purposely relation to the bankrupt businessman, its offstage figures admit that Ezzedine had invested his funds within the party’s realm and that the depositors have trusted Ezzedine because he is affiliated with the party. This case will pose new types of questions on Hizbullah’s leadership, mainly how to confront the challenge of the parasites that had grown within its public and political fields and which had benefitted from the party’s ideological and political vibes making fortunes.
Hizbullah’s chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah had transmitted a message to the party’s main leaders, sometime after the financial scandal, notifying them against the phenomena and the necessity to confront it. From this prospect, Hizbullah’s final session will touch on the details of the Ezzedine case, as an expression of a social phenomenon within the party’s realm as well as its organizational corpse. The final discussion is expected to deal with another crucial topic: did Hizbullah become a fertile soil for opportunistic groups who abuse its slogans to carry out corruptive practices at the financial and social levels or even on more advanced levels?
The answers which the conference will give to these questions will determine the nature of Hizbullah’s approach to these issues, especially as these concerns are directly related to its internal body. Thus Hizbullah is expected to do a decontamination crusade at the political and organizational levels ‘as a clear message’ conveying the Secretary General’s persistence to confront Ezzedine’s phenomenon within the party. Meanwhile, the second development is related to the 2009 parliamentary elections. In this context two outlooks will be enlisted on the conference’s agenda: the first says that the elections have shown a failure in the planning and follow-up criteria within the party, mainly at the levels of managing internal issuances.
The advocates of this outlook believe that the party must determine the accountability and put the responsible on liability as well as making proposals to avoid the recurrence of the same faults in the future. On the other hand, the second outlook says that Hizbullah lost the elections but did not lose its position in the equation, and that the leader in charge of planning the electoral campaign – in reference to Hizbullah’s second in command Sheikh Naim Qassem- is not responsible for the party’s failure in the elections, but that the responsibility lays on Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun, who was charged, during the Doha agreement in 2008, with the mission of presenting his visualization of the best way to divide the electoral districts. The advocates of this outlook believe that Aoun has made a mistake in his vision for the districts and that he should have divided the districts differently to serve “his real capacity in the elections.”The conference, which is expected to make substantial changes to the party’s political and organizational command, may also raise other issues within its bid to sanitize its internal body.

Kabbani calls for Aoun to be more flexible
Date: October 6th, 2009/Source: NNA
Member of "Lebanon First" bloc MP Mohammad Kabbani called Tuesday on "Change and Reform" bloc leader MP Michel Aoun to give up some of his previous requests that prevented the cabinet formation. Kabbani, a Beirut MP said the opposition’s suppleness is necessary for reaching the appropriate formula to forming the government, thus assuring the country’s transition from one stage to another. In an interview with “Future news” Television, he expressed his support to the rotation of the portfolios procedure and that “they shouldn’t be limited to a particular person” stressing that the financial ministry is sensitive because a minister at odds with the PM would hamper the government’s work. He rejected the opposition’s allegation that the Christians of the majority are obstructing the process of cabinet formation and pointed out that some issues were still unresolved, despite the positivity of the meeting that took place between Premier-Designate Hariri and FPM leader MP Michel Aoun. “This meeting won’t be the last, there will be other meeting after Premier-Designate Hariri consults with his allies and take their opinions into consideration,” Kabbani said.

Ezzeddine fingerprints on Lebanon Central Bank’s clearance room

Date: October 5th, 2009/Future News
Clearance room of Lebanon Central Bank showed that the bouncing checks during the first 9 months of year 2009 till September are increasing in both number and value. The bounced checks of businessman Salah Ezzeddine clearly showed during September, which is the month when bounced checks drawn by Ezzeddine began to show.
The value of bounced checks during September reached 120 million dollars and the highest value of bounced checks in one month year 2009 till August did not exceed 81 million dollars, and in August Ezzeddine ceased payments before he was received by the public prosecutor from Hizbullah. From January 2009 until July of the same year, the bounced checks reached a minimum value of 52 million dollars (February) and a maximum rate of 78 million dollars (July). The reason behind the bounced checks is not necessary because of is not necessarily due to the insolvency of the drawer, even in cases of non-availability of money. Sometimes, banks deal with this kind of checks depending on the solvency of the client and his duty credit and financial relations, but this was not provided to Ezzeddine.

Williams after Meeting Hariri: Lebanon Needs Government to Tackle Challenges

Naharnet/United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon Michael Williams said Monday that Lebanon is in need of a government that would face up to challenges.
His remarks came following a meeting at Center House with PM-designate Saad Hariri where discussions focused on recent domestic and regional political developments, particularly progress of the government formation process. "I would like to take this opportunity to commend Saad Hariri for his untiring efforts to bring about a truly national government," Williams told reporters. While he praised the open dialogue policy adopted by the various political parties, Williams hoped that the current round of consultations would reach a successful conclusion.
"It has been almost four months since the parliamentary elections took place in June; the country needs a government to tackle the very many challenges that remain on hold, particularly with regards to social and economic reforms as well as political and security challenges," he said. The U.N. official explained that Lebanon was part of a broader regional context, stressing the positive developments taking place at the regional level, particularly the progress in relations between Syrian and Saudi Arabia. Williams informed Hariri on the U.N. preparations to issue by the end of October the 11th report regarding implementation of Security Council Resolution 1701. Beirut, 06 Oct 09, 09:08

Aoun: Comprehensive Agreement to Be Announced Soon
Naharnet/Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun said following talks with PM-designate Saad Hariri at Center House on Monday that a comprehensive agreement on a new government will soon be announced after Hariri completes his consultations with all parties. Aoun added that he agreed with Hariri on some points while the rest of the disputed points will be discussed in further meetings in order to reach a "strong and coherent government". "The Cabinet is not only formed of FPM and Al-Mustaqbal ministers, there are other parties that should be involved in the dialogue process," said Aoun, adding that things should not be rushed and people should not be reassured of positive developments which are being denied later.
Aoun stressed on the necessity for further meetings and said that each government with a pre-agreement on its policy statement and its foundations is a strong government. He added that the harmony among the Prime Minister and the ministers regarding the discussed issues is a factor that strengthens the government. Beirut, 05 Oct 09, 17:00

PSP Leader Looks Forward to Syrian-Saudi Summit

Naharnet/Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat said "the upcoming Syrian-Saudi summit will hark back the relations between Lebanon and Syria in accordance with the Taef Accord." In his weekly article to al-Anbaa magazine, Jumblat praised the heroic role of the Syrian military forces in shadows of the 1973 war against Israel. "Coinciding with this year's commemorative event is the inter-Arab approach which is a most appropriate occasion to forget previous confrontations and the harsh escalatory tones between Lebanon and its neighboring country", MP Jumblat added. "Both countries should establish a common ground abiding by the Taef Accord and based on a geography and a history which bring them together", added Jumblat. Jumblat considered that "if Egypt joined the Syrian-Lebanese-Saudi triangle, an Arab security network will be created to make front to any future plans targeting the integrity, freedom and sovereignty of the Arab region". These paralleled events should be taken advantage of and "the Arab countries should unite against the Israeli aggression", Jumblat concluded. Beirut, 05 Oct 09, 20:20

Azerbaijan Jails 2 Lebanese 15 years for Israeli Embassy Plot

Naharnet/An Azerbaijani court on Monday found two Lebanese men guilty of plotting attacks on the Israeli embassy in the capital Baku, jailing them for 15 years each, a court spokesman said. "Lebanese citizens Ali Karaki and Ali Najmeddine were sentenced to 15 years each," a court spokesman told AFP. He said they were preparing attacks on the Israeli and US embassies, as well as the strategic Gabala missile-detection radar station in the north of the country.(AFP) Beirut, 05 Oct 09, 14:52
 

The United Arab Emirates and the Lebanese "Scolding" Party
Mon, 05 October 2009
Jameel al-Theyabi
http://www.daralhayat.com/portalarticlendah/63058
Isn't any country entitled to preserve its security and stability according to its perception as a state, not according to the perception of other parties and groups? Isn't any country that maintains absolute sovereignty over its territory entitled to deport and keep who it wants in what preserves its security and unity and solidarity? Isn't any country entitled to deport whoever it believes has a presence that poses a threat to it and to its internal structure and social fabric?
The United Arab Emirates is facing a two-dimension campaign by the Lebanese press, especially the party-affiliated press, under the pretext of sectarianism, after the UAE deported some the Lebanese nationals working on its territory for security reasons. With this, the Lebanese newspapers in Beirut inaugurated a party of "scolding" against the UAE. I do not know why these people overlooked the UAE support for their country under many circumstances and crises. Why have the spokesmen for the deportees overlooked the number of Lebanese people hosted by the UAE and the aid it offered for many decades? Aren't there millions of Lebanese who found a safe and decent life in the UAE? Why were they "annoyed" just because a group, whose number does not exceed the fingers of one hand, was deported and why did they overlook the large numbers of Lebanese working in the UAE from all Lebanese sects? Didn’t they wonder about the destiny of other Lebanese if the UAE decided to deport them?
The international conventions stipulate that the concept of national sovereignty is an absolute right for every state, which is entitled to ratify the social and political regime it wants, and decide to implement it on its territory. It also has the right to preserve its security and stability and make decisions it deems necessary to achieve the safety of its people. This means that if any state has comments on any workers from other nationalities, for issues that undermine its security and stability and unity, then it has the right to deport them, a right secured by international laws and the rights of sovereignty over its territory. Once the Lebanese deportees returned to Beirut, a wave of accusations and fabrications were launched against the UAE, either because they wanted to go back, or because they wanted to get even with its decision, as though it committed a huge crime against them and placed them behind iron bars with no electricity or water, while in fact they were retuned to their parents and countries without undermining their humanity.
Three years ago, Britain decided to deport hundreds of thousands of Eastern European nationals for reasons that concern Britain itself. These countries did not object to the deportation of its workers because they know that this is an absolute British right. Meanwhile, the United States deports thousands of Mexicans every year. These countries are aware of the complete concept of "state sovereignty" and "state interest", aside from outbidding and accusations, as there weren't mutual campaigns in their media, or debates and charges leveled from here and there targeting the intentions of the UAE, considering that the issue involved the concerned state, its security, stability, and sovereignty.
A source has reported to a Lebanese newspaper that the investigation branch in the passport control department in the UAE summoned him, and one of the officers asked him for information about Hizballah and the moves of the Lebanese community. When the Lebanese source answered that he does not have any information – as he said – the officer directly told him that he is deported from the UAE. The source further said that what happened to him was almost applied with all the deportees. I do not know how we could believe such an accusation from someone who spent 22 years in the UAE and was never asked for any "secret" information for more than two decades. Then, suddenly, the passport officers decided to ask him about "intelligence" information which they were unaware of for all these years! Shouldn't this person – instead of "leveling" accusations and giving them a sectarian aspect against a country that respected and honored him and opened its arms for him for so long – thank the UAE rather than hate it and its people?
Two days ago, the UAE officially informed the Lebanese Government that the decision to deport a number of Lebanese working there "has nothing to do with their sectarian affiliation because thousands of Shiites are still working and living there."
Beyond no doubt, the UAE is entitled to protect its territory against any attempts to turn it into a spot for factionism, sectarianism, and confessionalism, or a spot for the birth of new political parties and movements on its territory. I believe that the UAE is not in need for this explanation, and it is enough for it to overlook these fabrications and accusations considering that it is a country that maintains absolute sovereignty over its territory, and works according to what achieves the interest of its people and preserves its security and stability, and because it alone is entitled to decide who to deport and who to keep on its territory. * Al Hayat, 05/10/09
 

 

Hizbollah embroiled in Ponzi scheme
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/lebanon/6261720/Hizbollah-embroiled-in-Ponzi-scheme.html#
Lebanon's militant Islamic group Hizbollah has had its reputation for ideological purity tarnished by a growing scandal involving an alleged Bernie Madoff-style Ponzi scheme.
By Abigail Fielding-Smith in Beirut
Published: 6:00AM BST 06 Oct 2009
A Lebanese businessman with close links to the party has been arrested on suspicion of defrauding investors of up to £500 million.
A Hizbollah MP is among those who have lost money, and victims are thought to include a number of other senior officials, ordinary members and supporters.
The scandal has forced Hizbollah on to the defensive, with its secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, having to deny involvement.
The scandal has been particularly damaging because financial speculation and the accumulation of personal wealth appears to directly contradict the party's religious ideology.
"Its public image has been tainted," said Amal Saad Ghorayeb, a Hizbollah expert. "Wealth taints you if you are a Khomeinist ideological party."
Some investors now say they expect the party to compensate them, claiming they were encouraged to invest with the businessman, Salah Ezzedine, because of his closeness to Hizbollah officials.
"Hizbollah must do something," said one investor, 33, who asked to be called Ali. "Ezzedine was close to them, they should be responsible about this."
Mr Ezzedine, a Shia known for his piety who also ran a number of legitimate businesses, was charged with embezzlement after his scheme collapsed.
Hizbollah's Shia heartland in South Lebanon has been hit hard with one resident estimating that at least 70 people in the towns of Toura, Shour, and Maaroub had bought in. Some of them are thought to have been investing on behalf of several other people.
"They are blaming me for the loss of their money," Ali said. He said he sold family land and gathered money from his mother, sister and two friends to invest £200,000.
Mr Ezzedine's middle men allegedly told clients they were investing in commodities such as gold and iron, and promised profits of up to 40 per cent.
But the scheme – believed to be like a Ponzi, in which one investor's money would be used to pay another – collapsed as losses spiralled out of control.
Investors say they had doubts about the improbably high returns and the lack of paperwork but they were mollified by the strength of Mr Ezzedine's Hizbollah connections.
"We heard people close to Hizbollah were doing business with him, and the party said that he was a trustworthy person," Ali said. "I thought, what the hell, everyone's making money, I should as well." Although the group has its own private army, it is also a political party with a crucial role in current negotiations to form the next Lebanese cabinet.
The party is not itself accused of wrongdoing, and is said to have helped in Mr Ezzedine's arrest. But its implicit endorsement of Mr Ezzedine has put it in a difficult position, and it has been forced to deny that it is considering some kind of compensation scheme. The pro-Hizbollah newspaper Al Akhbar also ran a critical editorial, saying that the apparent willingness of so many party members and associates to invest in the scheme should sound an "alarm bell". The organisation, famous for its probity and discipline, could be permanently damaged, it said.
"People are kind of shocked now," said one resident of a South Lebanon village. "They are not mad at Hizbollah, they can never be, they worship the party. "But they started saying it looks like the poor will stay poor, fight and die poor, and the rich become richer."
 

Two Lebanese jailed for Baku plot
Prosecutors say Azerbaijan's capital was targeted by Hezbollah

BBC 6/10/09/ -Daily Star
An Azerbaijani court has jailed two Lebanese men for plotting to attack the Israeli embassy in the capital Baku, sentencing them to 15 years each. The men were named by court officials as Muhammad Ali Karaki and Najmeddin Ali Hussein. Four Azerbaijani nationals received jail terms ranging from 12 to 14 years, the official news agency Turan said. The group was also found guilty of plotting an attack on a Russia-rented radar station in northern Azerbaijan. The prosecution linked the group to Lebanese Hezbollah, as well as its allies the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and the "al-Qaeda network", officials said. The staunchly Sunni Muslim al-Qaeda is not known to have any links with Hezbollah, which is a political and militant movement representing Shia Muslims in Lebanon. Defence lawyers boycotted the sentencing, saying it was unjust, and pledged to appeal against the verdict. "We believe that the court made its decision based on personal opinions rather than on facts and evidence," said lawyer Vugar Khasiev, in remarks quoted by the AFP news agency.
International press outlets have claimed that Hezbollah was preparing a spectacular attack in Baku to avenge the assassination of its military leader Imad Mughniyeh.

Aoun and the Blunt Sword of Naturalization
Mon, 05 October 2009/Husam Itani
In his latest television interview, General Michel Aoun addressed the naturalization of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon at length, presenting his interpretation of the issue, which the Lebanese have agreed to reject, including their stance in the preamble to their constitution (Paragraph “I”).
In that same interview, the General refused to grant Palestinians residing in Lebanon civil and social rights, including the right to work, because this would according to him inevitably lead to their naturalization. Thus the Palestinians are not allowed to practice a profession of any kind, because this would make them demand, in a future that might not be so distant, to obtain Lebanese citizenship. They must therefore remain besieged and contained in their refugee camps, eaten away by unemployment and the cells of organizations with obscure goals and motives, among them spreading the plagues and diseases of ghettos packed with disappointments and with personal and communal tragedies.
And if an insane adventure has destroyed one of these sad refugees camps, the scales of justice of the FPM (Free Patriotic Movement) led by Aoun stand demanding that this camp not be rebuilt, because the Phoenician-Aramaean city of Orthosia lies underneath, and not a stone must be replaced in the Nahr El-Bared camp until proper excavations supervised by experts and archaeologists have taken place. The least that can be said about this is that it is a righteous cause being used for malicious ends. At the same time, Aoun and his followers grow adamant in combating Palestinian acquisition of real estate and land in Lebanon, as such acquisition confirms intentions of naturalization.
In the 1990s, those who were in power in Lebanon exploited the issue of naturalization to keep the Christians in the grip of fear. The imbalance in the number of Lebanese inhabitants to the benefit of Muslims is no secret. Thus excessive talk of naturalization is only a way to increasingly terrorize the Christians from the Muslims in order to ensure their loyalty to their greatest leader. The reality is an entirely different matter, summed up by the fact that no one wishes to naturalize the Palestinians in Lebanon, especially those Palestinians who have tasted the bitter Lebanese cup after forcing the Lebanese to sip the bitterness of their own cause. Moreover, those Palestinians, after years of political and social pressures which many a side took upon itself to subject them to, are but the shadow of what their numbers were in the 1970s and 1980s. Yet the only issue that has withstood the test of time is the ability of different parties to exploit the fear of naturalization that the Christians have, in order to keep them hostage to loyalties and fears that benefit those whose voices rise highest in warning of naturalization.
A debate addressing the awareness that shapes the convictions of the General and his companions would be meaningless. Indeed, the issue does not reside in principles and ideas or in interests, as much as in a vision that deems it permissible to resort to weapons – which have gone blunt from overuse – in an internal battle, even if it comes at the expense of the dignity of a people that has grown tired – and has tired the world – of calling for their right to return to their occupied land. Yet as it seems, there is no one to hear their calls.
There is one point that calls for even more sadness and frustration, regarding the complete silence observed by those who raise the banner of “marching to Jerusalem, war until victory” and those who decree the inviolability of the “auspices of the Holy City” in terms of negotiating over it. Those with whom Aoun shares an “understanding” see nothing wrong in his public and implicit contempt for the suffering of the Palestinian people in Lebanon, which has been ongoing for many decades, and care not what the man says about the inhabitants of the Holy City, who hold demonstrations supporting them in the face of Israeli threats, as long as Aoun provides them with the cover they seek in the fields of politics and in other fields which those well-informed know of. Indeed, such a stance seems even worse than that of the General and even more harmful to the Palestinians and to their right of return, upon which there is no compromise.* Al-Hayat, 2009-10-04

Egypt's top imam orders student to remove conservative face veil

By Agence France Presse (AFP) /Tuesday, October 06, 2009
CAIRO: Egypt’s leading cleric ordered a student to remove her face veil while he was was visiting an academy linked to the Al-Azhar University in Cairo, an Egyptian newspaper reported on Monday. Al-Azhar’s Grand Imam Mohammad Tantawi asked the student to remove her niqab, a face veil worn by devout Muslim women, when he spotted her in a classroom, the daily Al-Masry al-Yowm reported, add­ing that the student complied. Tantawi reportedly said the niqab was a tradition, not an Islamic obligation. The newspaper also reported that Higher Education Minister Hani Hilal decided to ban women wearing the niqab from entering university residences. Sunni Muslim scholars are divided on whether a woman must cover her face, with the majority saying it is not an obligation, but all mainstream scholars agree a woman must cover her hair and her body with loose fitting clothes. In the Middle East, the niqab has come to be associated with Salafism, a brand of ultra-conservative Islam practiced mostly in Saudi Arabia. Most Muslim women in the country wear the hijab, a veil that covers the hair, but an increase in women wearing the niqab has apparently alarmed the government. The Religious Endowments Ministry has distributed booklets in mosques against the practice. – AFP
 

Interview with Dr. Walid Phares
Jihad like Yoga? Dr. Walid Phares
05 Oct 2009
Interview in Nowe Panstwo - Our Times
Following is an interview with Professor Walid Phares in Nowe Panstwo (Our Times), a Politics and History Journal in Poland, conducted by Olga Doleśniak-Harczuk. The title of the interview in Polish is "ihad jak joga" which translate to "Jihad like Yoga." In this extensive discussion, Professor Phares addresses the strategic structure of al Qaeda, Europe's readiness to confront the threat, the Obama Administration ability to win a war of ideas over the Jihadists, the necessary Western Rethinking of the conflict, indoctrination and penetration in the US, the role of Oil lobbies, the influence of theological texts on Jihadists, the numbers of Islamists in Europe, Western inability to fight this war, and Polish American relations in the war with the Jihadists.
Professor Walid Phares
QUESTION: In an interview, you mentioned the second generation of al-Qaeda. What is the role of Usama bin Laden for the younger generation of terrorists? Is he "only" a symbol of the global jihadists movement, or still a real "true-born" leader?
WALID PHARES: al Qaeda as an organization has a hard core center linked to its chief, Usama Bin Laden, and it has affiliate organizations operating in various areas, such as Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, etc. In addition there are Jihadist movements and organizations allied to al Qaeda, such as Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Jemaa Islamiya in south Asia, Shabaab al Jihad in Somalia, Abu sayyaf in the Philippines etc. The sum of all these organizations and movement is a Salafist nebulous, which I define as combat Salafists. Those who believe that terror Jihad is the shorter way to reach their goal of reestablishing the Caliphate. In that web al Qaeda is seen as the center and its commander Bin laden as the 'Fuehrer.'
But this Jihadi nebula is not the only one. There are other nebulae such as the classical Wahabis, Muslim Brotherhoods, Deobandis, etc, who along with al Qaeda nebulous form a large bloc of Global Salafi Jihadism. Bin Laden is the hero of his own nebula and he is somewhat seen as a popular, but irresponsible leader within the classical nebulae. So, as you see it is complex. But in terms of al Qaeda, he is unquestionably the supreme leader. But in the daily practical life of these movements, he is not the chief executive, he is sort of a high-ranking symbolic leader. It is mostly Ayman Zawahiri who plays the role of chief executive. And among the affiliates, it is the local emirs who lead the action.
QUESTION: How would you describe the European way of understanding and defining the global jihad danger? Some European politicians seem to not take the global terrorism seriously enough.
ANSWER: Europe's academic elite, or perhaps mostly Western European intellectuals, have been influenced by the oil producing regimes for years, as were most governments. Since 1973, the oil shock intimidated the economic and political elite of the then Western Europe who feared a repeat of the boycott. Since then, what, in my books, I have coined Petro Jihad left an influence on the European perception of international relations, and soon enough on European handling of Jihadism on the continent. European chanceries catered to the oil producing regimes in the region, and thus to the ideologies of Wahabism and Salafism. Academic scholarship, often funded directly or indirectly by oil interests, advised European Governments and later on the European Union institutions, not to confront these ideologies because it would ignite the wrath of the petro-regimes. Even as the Jihadists, such as al Qaeda and others, hit the US on 9/11 and later Madrid in 2004, London in 2005, and were behind violence in the Netherlands, Italy, France, Belgium, Germany and Scandinavia, the expert body at the European Union level has always and continues to advise against coining the threat as an ideology and calling it Jihadism.
In my many briefings and testimonies over many years at European institutions, I realized that European bureaucrats and their advisors avoid identifying terror with an ideological root. They decline admitting that behind the actions of Jihadi terrorism there is a totalitarian ideology, despite all research and facts saying so. But I also noticed that central and eastern European legislators and experts are more sensitive to totalitarian ideologies and to the tactics of penetration used by the Jihadists. Naturally, eastern Europeans are more experienced with terror having lived under totalitarian regimes for many decades. However, let me also note that many Western Europeans are becoming much more aware of the Jihadi threat because of their own research and the incidents they have been observing on European soil. Today at the European Parliament, there is a large group of MEPs who have been finally able to define the threat as Jihadism and are moving in this direction.
QUESTION: After President Barack Obama’s speech to the Muslim World on June the 4th 2009, the spokesman of the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said: "It shows there is a new and different American policy toward the Palestinian issue." What role may Barack Obama have in the confrontation with global terrorism in this context?
Sheikh Watching President Obama Speech in Cairo
ANSWER: During the electoral campaign the Obama team was clear as to the changes they wanted to enact in foreign policy and regarding the ongoing confrontation with the Jihadists worldwide. As advised by its experts, the Obama Administration is changing US official outlook towards the past 8 years of conflict. First it is abandoning the concept of a "war on terror." In fact it is true that this is not a war against a tactic. One cannot wage a war against Blitzkrieg for example. But what they came up with is a more serious mistake. They abandoned the identification of the threat doctrine, as Jihadism, and they narrowed it to al Qaeda. It would be as if in WWII the Allies were only fighting the SS, the Luftwaffe, but not Nazism. The Obama Administration is as badly advised as the European Union, on the ideological conflict, again because the expertise behind this new policy is compromised by the influence of the oil producing powers. If we don't identify the ideology and counter it, it will continue to grow and indoctrinate and recruit people. Hence, in the Cairo speech the President spoke of changes, but in the abstract. Nothing will change or move forward as long as the Jihadi totalitarians aren't isolated internationally and the democracy forces in the Muslim world are supported. That is not what is happening now.
As far as the Palestinian question is concerned, it is not about appointing a new envoy, which is not going to solve the problem. It is about identifying the forces that are blocking the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians. The latter, as in many ethnic conflicts, have so many issues to address. But the forces obstructing the peace process are third parties: Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, and Iran. So, the Jihadist axis in the region.
QUESTION: In your third book; The Confrontation. Winning the War Against Future Jihad, You argue that there must be a "Western Rethinking" of the conflict. What did you mean, Mr. Phares?
ANSWER: In my last book, I called for a Western rethinking of the conflict based on the necessity of a strategic understanding of the threat and where it is going to develop. Current and past Western policies clearly show that we aren't going anywhere near the end of that conflict. First inside the US and Europe, let alone Australia and Canada, the homegrown Jihadists are multiplying and organizing. At some point, they will begin an "urban Jihad" where these cities will witness acts of violence and war waged by these groups. In Iraq and Afghanistan, despite the courage, sacrifices, determination and successes of US, Coalition and NATO forces, all indicates that Taliban or al Qaeda and the likes are still going to strike, eight years after 2001. So where is the problem? It is in the fact that the West refused to fight a war of ideas along with the war against the Terror forces. Hence, I had called on a strategic rethinking beginning with debates at the European Parliament and the US Congress as well as national legislatures to re-focus the conflict. And based on this, the West must engage in an ideological campaign to isolate the Jihadi forces and engage with the democratic forces in the Muslim world. Instead, the West now is doing the opposite: retreating from defining the threat, fleeing the debate about it and engaging the wrong forces: Taliban, Hezbollah, Iran and other Salafi Jihadists.
I also called on forming a large international alliance, or at least coordinating with countries that have a Jihadi problem, such as India, and many African states. And despite all the problems and crises, with Russia or with Russian leaders who see eye to eye on the Jihadi threat. Another component of the Western rethinking is to work on energy independence from oil regimes supportive of these ideologies. Last but not least, a Western rethinking should promote significant support, even moral, to dissidents, democracy seekers, women, students and other sectors in the Muslim world who oppose the radicals. And they do exist.
QUESTION: How strong is the ideological indoctrination of the jihadists in the USA? I mean the influence on the public life, specially the infiltration of the US academic world.
ANSWER: The ideological indoctrination by the Jihadists is mainly performed by the oil producing regimes and the militant networks providing the human resources. As with the end of the 1970s and mid 1980s, millions of petrodollars have been invested in America on building a web of influence within the educational system and foreign policy circles. Funding has targeted Middle East Studies, Islamic studies, international relations studies under the aegis of "better knowing the Middle East and its cultures." In fact that funding impacted the American classrooms in two ways. On the one hand, it eliminated the study of all issues related to human rights in the region, including women, minorities, youth, etc. On the other hand, it blurred the vision of students regarding the concepts of Jihad and the related ideologies. To some extent, mainstream studies presented Jihad as some sort of Yoga! And from these specialized classrooms graduated those who were hired by the US Government, media and NGOs. So, the Wahabi funding basically derailed the understanding of the threat for years. This is why the American public was stunned on 9/11 and couldn't understand what was happening. It was manipulated educationally by apologists of the Jihadist ideology so that the US Government is disabled from acting against the threat. Which explained why the US did not respond rationally after the attacks of Beirut in 1983, New York in 1993, Khobar in 1995, Kenya and Tanzania in 1998 and after the attack against the USS Cole in 2000. It has all to do with the blurring of the public vision of the threat. Today other democracies must be attentive to this strategy, especially central and eastern European democracies, which are targeted by oil producing regimes to fund similar programs. This is a form of the war of ideas.
QUESTION: The Qur'an said: those who believe, fight in the cause of Allah, and those who disbelieve, fight in the cause of Satan. So you fight against the friends of Satan. Is the West civilization "a friend of Satan" for the jihadists or is the using of references to Qur'an only a political argument without any religious background?
ANSWER: This is a complex question. The Jihadists basically use the Koran and Hadith as a pillar of their indoctrination agenda. In other words they cite verses from the theological sources and convince their recruits that it is their duty to carry out the orders of Allah. The fact that there are stipulations in the text that mentions Jihad or kuffar (infidels) is not enough to produce a Jihadist. It is the existence of a network of ideologues, cadres, operatives and organizations which uses the theological texts to create an ideology. Once the ideology is accepted as such, the person who is recruited doesn't see it as an ideology but as a religious injunction, hence the confusion. I make a distinction between what is theological, and that has its own debate, and what is ideological and is part of the Jihadist efforts to expand. The West must focus on the ideological tool not on the theological text. The latter must be part of a natural debate within the Muslim world and with other groups.
QUESTION: According to the German Central Institute Islam Archive, the total number of Muslims in Europe in 2007 war about 53 million. Mark Steyn, wrote in his book America Alone that the future belongs to Islam - the West is growing old and "Islam has youth and will." Is the West lost for opening the gates for the Islamic invasion or is such a theory only an overreaction for global changes?
ANSWER: Every social and demographic phenomenon has its apex and its regressive moment. It is true that over the past decades, the numbers of the Muslim population in Europe, outside the Balkans where they are native, has grown. But that was the natural consequence of Western Europe's economic elites which wanted cheap immigrant labor and also its Governments which were under the 1973 Oil shock syndrome. This quantitative equation was predictable and should not surprise Europeans. So on paper, decisions made in the 1970s and 1980s in terms of immigration policy were to affect the demographic balance. Why would Europeans be surprised and shocked about what they have decided to do to enjoy their lifestyle? Well, I guess the public is shocked nowadays because it was not informed by its own elite that Jihadism was making progress within the immigrant communities. That is the missing link. Because Jihad was equated to Yoga, the public didn't pay attention until urban unrest hit its cities and Jihadi Terror started to strike harder. At this point Europeans must put their priorities in order. They need to deal immediately with the ideological issue then handle the demographic equations. Unfortunately, since the European Union is afraid or unwilling to touch the ideological issue, its populations are left alone to figure out the problem. This is why you read and hear European essayists talking about Muslim demographics instead of trying to isolate the Jihadist threat first. Europe lacks strategists to deal with the issue and I am not saying the US is in a better shape.
QUESTION: In Europe we had in the last years a strong wave of conversion to Islam. How would you explain the growing interests for Islam in Europe even after the 9/11.
ANSWER: One would ask where are these conversions to Islam coming from? The committed Christians and Jews or the less committed? From Atheists or from religious? Also, if you study the parameters of the converts and establish common trends, what do you see? Is it happening in the mainstream of societies or at the fringes? Is it happening to individuals who have a doubt about their spiritual identity or to persons confident about it? You must ask sociologists to research the question. But so far, it seems that the perception of conversions is bigger than the actual conversions. For according to studies a large segment of conversions comes naturally from non Muslim spouses of European Muslims. It is like a snow ball. The larger the initial community is, the higher the numbers of conversions are. The global numbers should not surprise people. I guess the reason why Europeans are asking the question is the dwindling numbers of the native populations versus the immigrants and also the shrinking numbers of European practicing Christians. If Europe's mainstream population and religions are regressing then yes the conversion to Islam becomes meaningful in terms of numbers. Without getting into the details in this interview as this subject is fascinating, the main question I raise is ‘why are Europeans so surprised about all these matters. It was so predictable.’ What blocked them from realizing this years ago? Here you may get interesting answers. Also one must look at the entire equation as well: while it is true that there are many conversions into Islam, but there are also significant conversions within the Muslim communities of Europe, not only to Christianity but also to Atheism. It is very complex.
QUESTION: In an interview, you said: "I wrote on the clash of civilization 14 years before Samuel Huntington. My message was basically a warning to the West that jihadism is on the rise, and is going to hit America and the rest of the free world". That was a very hard statement, especially when we know what happened in New York 22 years later. Why did Western civilization ignore the danger of global terrorism?
ANSWER: Indeed, when Eastern Europe was living under Soviet Communism, I published my first book in 1979 in which I advanced the idea that the Jihadists will push for a clash of civilizations and in following books I argued that the struggle for freedom must come from the inside of the Muslim world. A Jesuit scholar compared my early work with the dissident work of Andrei Amalrick and said that what I was to the Muslim world what dissidents were to the Soviet Union. But that was 14 years before Huntington's article on the clash of civilizations. In following pieces and books, I warned that eventually the Jihadists will strike the West, and they began in the 1990s, while many Western and American writers were talking about the end of history. And in the years preceding 9/11, I briefed members of Congress about the forthcoming threat to mainland US and worldwide. Unfortunately my voice and the voices of other colleagues were ignored. The dominant intellectual establishment, particularly in Middle East studies, was financially penetrated by the Wahabis and other apologists. Our theses were dismissed and often we were criticized. It was only after America was savagely attacked by al Qaeda and later on Europe that my expertise was sought and praised by many in the legislative and executive branches. In my book Future Jihad: Terrorist strategies against America (against the West was the international version) I showed the strategies of the Jihadists forces over decades. In the following book, The War of Ideas: Jihadism against Democracy, I explained why was it that the West ignored the warnings and looked the other way. In short it was the result of a war of ideas waged by the Jihadist global network. By inserting millions of dollars in America's Middle East studies and foreign policy circles, the Wahabis derailed the country's national security assessment. The 9/11 Commission asked the question why weren't Americans prepared mentally to meet the threat. Many said it was a failure of imagination. I counter argued and said it was a failure of education. The enemy took out America's ability of perceiving, understanding and acting against the threat before it happened. A sort of a Pearl Harbor took place.
QUESTION: Has Western civilization with their slogans of tolerance and disposition/inclination to wishful thinking any chance to win the war against jihad?
ANSWER: The slogans of tolerance are only the result of the Jihadists confusion strategy. The Jihad oil lobbies have convinced the uninformed intellectuals and policy makers in the US that acting against the Jihadists is acting against Muslims. This is naturally wrong. In fact acting against the Jihadists is acting to free Muslims from the fascist forces that are oppressing them. But unfortunately America's intelligentsia (most of it) was fooled by the apologists and the Jihadi propaganda operatives, as was the case with many Western intellectuals during the Cold War. They were told that ordinary citizens in Eastern Europe were very happy under the totalitarian regime. They didn't know better until Solidarity began its uprising in Gdansk. Tolerance with fascism is a form of collaboration with it. What the West must realize is that they were made to believe that they had to be tolerant with the most intolerant forces on the planet. This is the peak of deception, and unfortunately the Jihadist propagandists were and are very good at it. In recent years many officials in Western Europe, the US and Australia were made to believe that by using the term Jihadists, they will be conveying legitimacy to the terrorists. They were told that Jihad is in fact a sort of a Yoga, very spiritual! So when the expertise is compromised, decision makers can and have made huge strategic mistakes. But the good news is that the younger generations of American students, researchers and professionals in the fields of national security are getting it. It will be a question of time before a new more educated America rises from confusion and lead.
QUESTION: And finally a polish accent. In February 2007, Sally McNammara wrote: "Poland has supported America's global leadership role and has helped to expand security in unstable and unfriendly parts of the world. Wherever America is doing good in the world, Poland is not far behind." Mr. Phares, What is the future of the American-Polish relations through the prism of the last presidential elections in United States?
WALID PHARES: Polish participation in the defense of the free world and of democracy worldwide is a solid fact. It has been recognized in America for years. Its role in Iraq, Afghanistan and in countering terrorism worldwide made of Poland a pillar of resistance against Jihadi totalitarianism. As I said earlier, Poles have experienced oppression and terror, they know what it is and thus they are more prone to understand the nature of the Jihadist threat perhaps more than other Europeans who had colonies and empires and yet have caved in to oil Jihad. Polish instincts against the threat are perhaps greater than those of many Americans. But many in the United States are learning more about the meaning of that threat. There is a silent, gradual intellectual revolution happening in America regardless of its politics. Even if we know that the Obama Administration is advised by experts and pressure groups that want to disengage from the conflict and regress away from the international threat, as was the case before Nazism’s rise in the 1930s, the public in America is moving in another direction. The democratic political process in the US will correct itself, no doubt about it. But Poland could help tremendously in that awakening. If Poles learn more about the nature of Jihadism and its challenges and add to it their own historical instincts, they could have a significant influence on the US, not the other way around. Americans will be surprised to listen to the narrative coming from Eastern Europe and they respect it very much. Warsaw, Prague and Budapest are very symbolic in America's popular culture. If more Polish intellectuals and writers engage in this field, surprisingly it will help Europe and America get out of their confusion.
Even if the current US Administration plans on changing the role of Poland in the web of international relations and let go of Poland's special role in the war against the terrorists, it is clear that the American public, and the Polish American community are too attached to the historic relations between the two nations to allow this to happen
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**Professor Walid Phares is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and teaches Global Strategies in Washington DC. He is the author of three books on Jihadism. He has been appointed as a Co-Secretary General of the Transatlantic Parliamentary Group on Counter Terrorism.


Syrian-Saudi meeting contributes to stability, Israel might drag Iran into confrontation

October 6, 2009
Now Lebanon/
In an interview with Al-Jazeera television on Monday night, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Mouallem said that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s decision to participate in the summit that was held in Riyadh last month as well as his recent initiative to meet with Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdel Aziz contributes to regional stability and to bridging the gaps between disputing countries. “The lack of dialogue widens the gap between Arab countries,” Mouallem said, adding that “Syria can play a role in eliminating the reasons for concern, while Saudi Arabia can ease Syria’s concerns over certain issues.” Mouallem voiced fear over a possible hostile military activity in the region, highlighting the significance of dialogue in resolving problems, “since we have deep concerns that Israel will drag other countries to war and involve Iran in a confrontation to escape peace.” “The lack of trust between Iran and the West remains the main problem,” he said, warning that any war in the region would have dangerous consequences on all countries. Mouallem commented on the Syrian-Israeli negotiations, saying that the “peace process would only become possible if Israel responds to our demands, and Syria is not ready to waste its time in futile negotiations.” He also touched on the Syrian-US relationship, saying that “the US administration is interested in” Syria's Deputy Foreign Minister Faysal al-Mekdad’s visit to Washington last Tuesday, “ especially since it was the first visit to Washington by a Syrian official in more than eight years,” describing the visit as a “good step, which should be built upon.”He added that Damascus has agreed with Washington that their bilateral relationship should be exclusive to the two parties and not a “hostage to [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu or any other regional country.” He also said that Damascus’ deliberations with the US proved that the Iraqi-Syrian conflict that followed the bombings in Baghdad last August has not affected the US-Syrian relationship. “The circumstances have changed, and the reason is that Iraq does not have evidence of Syria’s involvement in the bombings,” Mouallem said, adding that Syrian officials have heard from many UN members that the accusation was political. On the Iranian nuclear program, Mouallem said that Syria refuses the use of nuclear power for military purposes, saying, “We have objected to Israel’s possession of nuclear weapons and submitted a draft resolution to the UN to turn the Middle East into a demilitarized region.”“We have never mediated between Iran and the West,” however, this does not prevent us from currently playing such a role, he added.

A new consensus

October 6, 2009
Agency (SANA) confirmed on Monday afternoon that that Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdel Aziz would visit Damascus in the coming few days.
The Iranian nuclear stand-off has sent regional leaders running for cover, and most Middle East watchers are in agreement that the visit, along with that of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to Saudi Arabia on September 23 during Eid al-Fitr, may herald new movements in the notoriously sensitive tectonic plates of Middle East politics.
The Americans, tied-up in Iraq and in Afghanistan, are hardly going to back an attack by Israel on Iran’s numerous nuclear facilities, a move that would spark a regional war. All the indications suggest that the Obama administration wants to tie up loose ends in the Middle East, a state of affairs that is forcing neighboring countries to make a new set of calculations. Already the notoriously fickle Druze leader Walid Jumblatt is talking of a “Syrian-Lebanese-Saudi triangle, an Arab security network [that would combat] any future plans targeting the integrity, freedom and sovereignty of the Arab region.”
It is at times like these when Lebanese are at their most nervous. In 1990, a similar milestone, this time in the shape of the first Gulf War, saw the US “give” Lebanon to Syria in exchange for it joining the international coalition to kick Iraqi President Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait. Now, with the possibility of a resurgent Iran, a warming of relations between Syria and Saudi Arabia will have consequences for Lebanon, where, like in Iraq, both countries have significant stakes.
Many no doubt will see King Abdullah’s visit as heralding a breakthrough in the latest political impasse to have blighted Lebanon. The country has been without a constitutionally-mandated new government since the June 7 elections. The temptation to breathe a short term sigh of relief must be tempered by the real prospect that a new consensus on Lebanon’s future might be reached in the coming days, one that could undo five years of sacrifice.
Lebanon deserves better. No one ever claimed that we could stand alone (indeed the country has always been characterized by both its reliance on international alliances and the habit of stronger neighboring nations to leverage the fragile sectarian balance to achieve greater regional influence) but in recent years, perhaps more so than any other time in Lebanon’s history, those who dreamt of genuine statehood, of building on Lebanon’s imperfect, but nonetheless democratic, electoral system and of breaking free from regional bondage to work toward economic and social reform, have for once shouldered the burden.
Six months off the fifth anniversary of what the US so earnestly and supportively dubbed the Cedar Revolution, those Lebanese who fought for freedom and independence are still standing in a fight that has not been without bitter cost. And with two election victories under their belt – the most recent under the stiffest of pressure from an opposition that threw everything it could into a campaign to restore Syrian hegemony – they can claim that the majority of Lebanese want a future based on self determination.
The Lebanese have endured war and internal strife. It’s time to call in our debts. All the pledges made since 2005 by the international community to ensure Lebanon’s democratic and sovereign aspirations should be honored.