LCCC
ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
May 01/09
Bible Reading of the day.
Holy Gospel of
Jesus Christ according to Saint John 6,44-51. No one can come to me unless the
Father who sent me draw him, and I will raise him on the last day. It is written
in the prophets: 'They shall all be taught by God.' Everyone who listens to my
Father and learns from him comes to me. Not that anyone has seen the Father
except the one who is from God; he has seen the Father. Amen, amen, I say to
you, whoever believes has eternal life. I am the bread of life. Your ancestors
ate the manna in the desert, but they died; this is the bread that comes down
from heaven so that one may eat it and not die. I am the living bread that came
down from heaven; whoever eats this bread will live forever; and the bread that
I will give is my flesh for the life of the world."
Free Opinions, Releases, letters &
Special Reports
Standstill
Lebanon/Future
News 30/04
Generals' release may represent deciding factor in elections.By
Michael Bluhm 30.04.09
The
Special Tribunal and its decisions should be fully supported-The
Daily Star 30.04.09
Michel
Sleiman, our election wild card-By
Michael Young 30.04.09
Latest News Reports From
Miscellaneous Sources for April
30/09
Bellmare: I will arrest the four
Generals if evidence shows their conviction-Future
News
Mehlis: the four generals are still
suspects-Future
News
The voice of the tribunal is louder
than that of politicization-Future
News
Reactions favor the release of the
four generals-Future
News
Opposition Demands Accountability of Lebanese Judiciary over 'Arbitrary'
Detention of 4 Generals-Naharnet
Geagea Optimistic About Poll Results Despite Release of 4 Generals-Naharnet
Jumblat from Qoreitem: We Will Not Abandon Political Condemnation-Naharnet
Suleiman: Tribunal's Decision is a Sign that Full Truth is Coming Out-Naharnet
Mehlis: 4 Generals Remain Suspects-Naharnet
Varied Views over U.N. Court Ruling Ordering Release of 4 Generals-Naharnet
U.N. Says Bellemare was Guided by 3 Legal Principles, Stresses Tribunal's
Independence-Naharnet
Welch: Election Competition Limited to Christian Areas-Naharnet
Egypt Hails Tribunal Decision to Free 4 Generals-Naharnet
Hariri, Geagea Discuss Elections, Hizbullah's Warning About Israeli
Maneuvers-Naharnet
Washington: Four Generals Are Still Under Investigation-Naharnet
Hizbullah Praises Generals' Release, Blames Authority for Lengthy
Detention-Naharnet
Hariri: Ruling on Generals Is Proof of Tribunal's Impartiality-Naharnet
Graziano: UNIFIL Faces Challenges ahead of Elections-Naharnet
Saad
Hariri hails Tribunal's move as 'step toward achieving justice-Daily
Star
UK queen
voices 'deep respect' for Lebanese-Daily
Star
Special
Tribunal orders release of four detained generals-Daily
Star
Mubarak
vows to defend Egypt borders against threat of militias-Daily
Star
March
14: Hizbullah hampering alliances in Kesrouan, Jbeil-Daily
Star
Police
link 17 'drug traders' in Curacao with Hizbullah-(AFP)
Generals' release may represent deciding factor in elections-Daily
Star
Lebanon
braces for Israeli maneuvers-Daily
Star
Lebanon
launches 4-month prepaid phone cards-Daily
Star
'Lebanon's ability to sidestep crisis does not guarantee sound future-Daily
Star
Lebanon
set to create national committee to tackle swine flu-Daily
Star
Sports
team helps survivors of mine, cluster bomb blasts regain active lifestyles-(AFP)
Families
of autistic children find support in local association-Daily
Star
US
Senators seek broader Iran sanctions-(AFP)
Syria's
detention of human rights activist 'unlawful'-Daily
Star
US 'very
concerned' about journalist jailed in Iran-(AFP)
Paris
and Madrid set up joint body to fight terrorism, crime-Daily
Star
The Special Tribunal and its
decisions should be fully supported
By The Daily Star /Thursday, April 30, 2009
Editorial
The decision by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon to release four high-ranking
military and security officials from custody on Wednesday will undoubtedly
generate a storm of analysis and counter-analysis, along with the usual set of
conspiracy theories and counter-conspiracy theories.
The Tribunal has certainly taken a beating from all sides in recent years, from
those who believe that it's been moving too slowly in pursuit of justice, and
those who believe that it's had no intention of seeking justice in the first
place.
Significantly, MP Saad Hariri, the son of the man whose assassination lies at
the heart of the matter, made an emphatic response immediately after the
decision, calling on the Lebanese to continue to support the Tribunal's work.
In welcoming the decision, which was reached based on a lack of evidence against
the four, the parliamentary majority leader said that it proved the body's
impartiality in the case.
In one sense, the Tribunal's decision provided proof that the process is not
politicized, and certainly that it's not operating on a Lebanese calendar.
Critics and skeptics, who have maintained that the Special Tribunal was fixed
from the beginning, must face the fact that this was the least suitable moment
to take such a step. A magistrate who was aware of the upcoming parliamentary
elections in Lebanon would act either long before the polls, or anytime
afterward.
A counter-theory, which could be advanced by anyone disappointed by Wednesday's
decision, is that the Special Tribunal's work will be hobbled by a deal between
the world's most powerful countries and the regime in Damascus. Thus, the
generals were released because a spectacular trade-off is being prepared, for
geopolitical reasons, and justice will not be served.
In either case, the decision to release the four does not represent the entire
judicial process of the Special Tribunal; it's not even the indictment. We do
not and will know anything about the truth, or lack thereof, of accusations made
against any side before the indictments are issued, the final verdict is handed
down, and the appeals process is concluded.
Until we see the entire course of events play out, we will not see a development
- like Wednesday's release - that is truly decisive.
We should listen to Hariri's response carefully: The Tribunal and its decisions
should be supported, and we've seen that its work is not politicized. He said
that Wednesday's decision didn't mean that guilty parties have escaped
punishment. But Hariri also reminded us that the assassination wasn't a "traffic
accident," and that it was an organized crime, one for which someone, and likely
more than one person, should ultimately be held responsible.
Standstill
Lebanon
Date: April 30th, 2009 Future News
All of the recent developments on the Lebanese domestic arena indicate that the
country is in a ‘standstill’ situation. With the approach of the June 7
parliamentary elections, the infertile debates and stupid biddings were launched
without having anything new to offer the Lebanese except the melodious slogans.
The dialogue session on Tuesday failed to reassure the country, in contrary it
introduced it to further horrifying possibilities represented in Hizbullah’s
exaggeration about an intended Israeli maneuver that might aim at imposing a new
reality.
Hizbullah distributed extensive demonstration on the operation “to be carried
out between the 31st of May and the 4th of June”, providing details on the
targets, scenarios, and the Israeli military groups that will participate in it,
knowing that the Shiite party failed to provide its written vision of the
“defense strategy”.
If Hizbullah presented its proposal for the “defense strategy”, it would have
saved the country a lot of distress, and the Lebanese would have began to
reinforce their domestic as well as their external front. On the contrary, the
party continued to intimidate the Lebanese if the ‘Doha Agreement’ was ended
through insisting to have the veto-right share of the government after the
elections. Through the presentation announced by MP Muhammad Raad, leader of the
‘Loyalty to the Resistance bloc’, Hizbullah tries to imply that Israel is
getting ready for war. The Lebanese have experienced the Israeli hostility, but
Hizbullah wants to avoid discussing the ‘defense strategy’ through putting
Lebanon at alert and placing the Lebanese state at the dispense of its military
and security services.
The only benefit of the dialogue session is its next date on the 1st of June,
which will probably be an occasion to go over the general situation that will
prevail over the June 7 parliamentary elections.
Opposition
Demands Accountability of Lebanese Judiciary over 'Arbitrary' Detention of 4
Generals
Naharnet/Fears of renewed tension and political bickering between the Hizbullah-led
opposition and the parliamentary majority rose following the release of the four
generals after a long imprisonment that was accompanied by Hizbullah accusations
toward its foes and calls to hold accountable those responsible for the
"arbitrary" detention. Hizbullah hailed Wednesday a U.N. court ruling ordering
the release of the four generals after a long "arbitrary" detention imposed by
those in power following the 2005 murder of ex-premier Rafik Hariri. "Hizbullah
welcomes the release of the four generals and congratulates their families after
a long arbitrary detention in prison cells without any evidence," it said in a
statement. It accused its political foes of "flouting all laws and established
procedures" and politicizing Lebanese jurisdiction. "The priority should now be
to hold accountable and prosecute all those responsible for years of deception
and procrastination," the statement read. Sources loyal to the government
described as an "atmosphere more like a coup d'état" the mood that surrounded
the aftermath of the generals' release, according to the daily Al Liwaa on
Thursday. They said they feared the atmosphere will look similar to the one that
prevailed after the generals' arrest in August 2005.
Al Liwaa pointed to the huge Hizbullah presence -- including several Hizbullah
MPs who gathered along with well-wishers at the generals' homes.
The paper, however, noticed the absence of lawmakers from Nabih Berri's and
Michel Aoun's parliamentary blocs.
As Safir newspaper, for its part, believed the release of the generals -- which
took place not very far from the Lebanese parliamentary elections --will be the
"focus of investment" by the opposition. The daily also believed that the
generals' release could lead to "more radicalism among some doctrinal and
political environments."
As Safir expressed regret that what the Lebanese judiciary could not accomplish
in four years the international tribunal was able to do in less than months
since launch of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon in March. It quoted François
Roux, head of STL's defense office, as saying that the court did what it had to
do concerning the generals. "All what the international tribunal did is put an
end to a situation that had caused the court legal difficulties and we saw that
the release of the generals complies with the principles of justice," Roux said.
Meanwhile, Justice Minister Ibrahim Najjar told As Safir that Lebanon "swiftly
implemented the court's ruling…and I'm very comfortable with that." Beirut, 30
Apr 09, 08:24
Jumblat from Qoreitem: We Will Not Abandon Political
Condemnation
Naharnet/Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat vowed on Thursday "not
to abandon political condemnation" and stressed that Syrian tutelage will not
return.
"We accept the court's ruling," Jumblat said following talks with al-Mustaqbal
movement leader Saad Hariri in Qoreitem in reference to the international
tribunal's decision to release the four generals. The Special Tribunal for
Lebanon decided for the time being that the officers were not involved in the
assassination of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri, the Druze leader said. Jumblat also
vowed to win the upcoming parliamentary elections, and stressed to "continue
preparations for the elections to achieve justice."Beirut, 30 Apr 09, 12:51
Geagea Optimistic About Poll Results Despite Release of 4
Generals
Naharnet/Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea said Thursday that the release of
the four generals will reflect positively on the upcoming parliamentary
elections.
"This step will reflect positively on the results of the parliamentary elections
(and will come) in favor of the March 14 forces," Geagea stressed during a press
conference in Merab. He described the release of the officers as an "achievement
if it's true that there is no evidence" of their involvement in ex-Premier Rafik
Hariri's murder.
"There is no political identity in justice," Geagea stressed, adding that
Wednesday's first ruling to release the four officers is proof that the Special
Tribunal for Lebanon is not politicized. Geagea accused the March 8 forces of
trying to cripple the formation of the tribunal in all its stages. He also
criticized those who are accusing Lebanese authorities of being responsible for
the four generals' arrest, saying former chief U.N. investigator Detlev Mehlis
is the one who ordered their detention and not the March 14 forces. "Our agenda
was never and will never be based on the foundation that the four generals are
the ones who carried out the assassination. Our cause is based on
state-building," the LF leader stressed. On the elections, Geagea said: "The
voters should know where their wrong votes will lead to."
Beirut, 30 Apr 09, 13:44
Suleiman: Tribunal's Decision is a Sign that Full Truth is
Coming Out
Naharnet/President Michel Suleiman has expressed relief at a decision to release
the four generals detained since August 2005, stressing the move proves that the
international tribunal has started functioning. The Special Tribunal for
Lebanon's decision to release the generals means "the international court began
its work in a transparent way and free from politicization," Suleiman told
Lebanese and Arab reporters in London on Wednesday. He said the tribunal's move
is also a "sign that the whole truth will be revealed."He stressed that
Hizbullah is committed to Security Council resolution 1701 and that recently
discovered Israel-linked networks constitute a violation of the 2006 resolution
and "proof of the extent of Israeli danger on Lebanon and its surroundings."
Suleiman reiterated that the Lebanese back the Taef accord adding that the Doha
agreement served its purpose. "We need to go back to the constitution and
implement it … without forgetting that the Doha accord has a conciliatory spirit
that we should work on." The president also stressed that preparations are
underway to hold democratic and transparent elections. June 7 will be the date
"to establish democracy in Lebanon."Earlier in the day, Suleiman and first lady
Wafaa met with Queen Elizabeth II at Buckingham Palace. The queen stressed her
sincere affection to Lebanon, adding that she followed "the difficult
circumstances that the (Lebanese) people went through in the past years." She
lauded the "historic relations between Lebanon and Britain" and the role played
by the Lebanese community in the UK.
Suleiman also held talks with Defense Secretary John Hutton who stressed
Britain's backing for the army and security forces. Beirut, 30 Apr 09, 10:24
Mehlis: 4 Generals Remain Suspects
Naharnet/Former head of the U.N. commission investigating the assassination of
ex-Premier Rafik Hariri, Detlev Mehlis, said the four released generals remain
suspects. He told pan-Arab daily Al-Hayat that the ruling by the Special
Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) has no bearing on the generals' guilt or innocence
and that they can still be indicted at a later stage. Mehlis said that the
officers' arrest was "legal and necessary for a period of five months that
followed his recommendation to Lebanese judicial authorities for the preventive
detention of the four suspects." Under Lebanese law, which also guides the
activities of the STL, suspects detained for crimes perceived to threaten
national security can be held indefinitely without charge. Mehlis stressed that
the arrest of the four generals was based on "evidence and testimonies of
witnesses." The four generals have been detained in Lebanon since August 2005.
They are the former head of the presidential guard, Mustafa Hamdan, 53, security
services director Jamil Sayyed, 58, domestic security chief Ali Hajj, 52, and
military intelligence chief Raymond Azar, 56. Lebanon released them on Wednesday
following a ruling by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. In the ruling, the
tribunal's first since opening its doors on March 1, pre-trial judge Daniel
Fransen granted a request by prosecutor Daniel Bellemare who said the available
evidence was "not sufficiently credible" to hold the generals. Beirut, 30 Apr
09, 09:31
Varied Views over U.N. Court Ruling Ordering Release of 4
Generals
Naharnet/Views varied over a U.N. court ruling ordering the release of four
generals that had been in custody in Lebanon since August 2005.
They are the former head of the presidential guard, Mustafa Hamdan, 53, security
services director Jamil Sayyed, 58, domestic security chief Ali Hajj, 52, and
military intelligence chief Raymond Azar, 56. While former chairman of the bar
association Issam Karam, who is defense attorney for one of the defendants,
congratulated the Lebanese for the appearance of the truth, former Beirut Bar
Syndicate President Shakib Qartbawi said the release of the officers "does not
prevent (later) prosecution."
Under Lebanese law, according to Qartbawi, the generals are not allowed to
demand compensation for the years they spent in prison. A Lebanese judge,
however, said the officers can claim compensation for the "injustice they have
suffered" and also sue the government and file complaints against the Judicial
Inspection. Meanwhile, Sayyed's lawyer Akram Azouri said the generals will not
leave Lebanon in the near future. In a telephone call with pan-Arab Asharq al-Awsat
newspaper, Azouri refused to talk about the possibility of the officers' run
away. "They are not suspects and, therefore, we cannot talk about their possible
escape," Azouri said, adding that the generals will be available for
interrogation if called upon at a later stage. Beirut, 30 Apr 09, 11:43
U.N. Says Bellemare was Guided by 3 Legal Principles,
Stresses Tribunal's Independence
Naharnet/The United Nations said Wednesday that the international tribunal's
general prosecutor, Daniel Bellemare, was guided by three legal principles in
his recommendation to release the four generals held for nearly four years in
the 2005 assassination of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri.
"Bellemare had said that he was guided by three basic legal principles: the
presumption of innocence; the principle that detention of persons presumed
innocent must always be the exception and not the rule; and the need for
sufficiency of credible and admissible evidence," U.N. spokesperson Farhan Haq
told reporters in New York. On the basis of those principles, the general
prosecutor concluded that the evidence was insufficient at this time to warrant
filing indictments against any of the four generals. Upon Bellemare's
recommendation, Special Tribunal for Lebanon's pre-trial judge Daniel Fransen
demanded that Lebanese authorities protect the generals after he ordered their
unconditional release and said they should no longer be considered suspects.
Fransen said a key witness had retracted a statement that initially incriminated
the generals, undermining the case against them.
Asked about the recommendation of former chief U.N. investigator Detlev Mehlis
to detain the generals, Haq said: "Mehlis recommended the arrests … based on the
information that was available to him at that time. They were then arrested in
2005 by the Lebanese authorities and held by them under Lebanese law."
The subsequent heads of the U.N. commission investigating Hariri's murder, Serge
Brammertz and Daniel Bellemare, were in frequent contact with the Lebanese
authorities and made their views on this issue clear, according to Haq. Asked by
journalists about the stance of Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on the releases,
Haq stressed the independence of the tribunal. "The secretary-general was not
involved in earlier decisions to detain people or today's decision to release
them. He respects the independence of the process," Haq said. He added that the
Special Tribunal for Lebanon is entrusted with following up on all of the
various leads involving Hariri's Feb. 2005 assassination. (AP photo shows one of
the officers, Maj. Gen. Ali Hajj after his release from prison) Beirut, 30 Apr
09, 08:45
Welch: Election Competition Limited to Christian Areas
Naharnet/Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs David
Welch said the results of the upcoming parliamentary elections will have
repercussions on Lebanon's regional and international relations. Welch's remarks
were made during a seminar hosted by Safadis Institution in the U.S. He believed
that competition in the June 7 elections would be limited to Christian areas
around a number of parliamentary seats, particularly in Beirut 1 constituency as
well as the districts of Zahle, Metn and Koura. He described as "crucial" the
battle in these electoral constituencies. Regarding the discovery of the
so-called Hizbullah cell in Egypt, Welch said the issue "despite linking it to
recent events in Gaza, will have repercussions on Lebanon." Beirut, 30 Apr 09,
10:33
Egypt Hails Tribunal Decision to Free 4 Generals
Naharnet/Egypt's foreign ministry hailed a U.N. court ruling ordering the
release of four generals detained since 2005 in connection with the
assassination of his father.
Ministry spokesman Husam Zaki said the release of the officers "opens the way
for a neutral and non-politicized court" in the Hariri case and related crimes.
"Egypt views the release as a legal measure far from politicization," Zaki said.
He called on everybody "not to jump to conclusions regarding the guilt or
innocence" of the four generals who were released on Wednesday. Beirut, 30 Apr
09, 11:07
Hariri, Geagea Discuss Elections, Hizbullah's Warning About
Israeli Maneuvers
Naharnet/Al-Mustaqbal movement leader Saad Hariri and Lebanese Forces chief
Samir Geagea discussed Wednesday night the upcoming parliamentary elections and
the timing of Hizbullah's announcement of Israeli preparations for maneuvers.
The two leaders held 2-hour talks in Merab on the general situation in the
country, in particular the issue of elections in different regions, according to
a statement. They also discussed preparations for the March 14 forces to run in
the elections with full coordination. Hariri and Geagea also discussed at length
the reasons behind the timing to announce the upcoming Israeli military
exercises. Discussions in the sixth national dialogue session on Tuesday
centered on a warning by Hizbullah MP Mohammed Raad that Israel will hold a
massive military maneuver May 31-June 4 and Lebanon is one of Israel's targets
during the exercises. Beirut, 30 Apr 09, 11:13
Washington: Four Generals Are Still Under Investigation
Naharnet/The U.S. government said Wednesday the four generals who were released
from Roumieh prison are still under investigation by the international tribunal
that will try ex-Premier Rafik Hariri's suspected assassins. "These four
generals are still under investigation by the tribunal prosecutors. So the
prosecutors indicated that the investigation is ongoing," Acting State
Department spokesman Robert Wood said. He reiterated that Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton expressed her support for the tribunal during her visit to
Beirut last Sunday. "It wouldn't be good for me to comment beyond that with
regard to these generals because the investigation is still going on," Wood
added. Lebanese authorities on Wednesday released the four generals held for
nearly four years in Hariri's 2005 assassination after the Special Tribunal for
Lebanon ordered them freed. The generals are: Former General Security chief Maj.
Gen. Jamil Sayyed, Ali al-Hajj, the ex-Internal Security Forces director
general; Brig. Gen. Raymond Azar, the former military intelligence chief; and
the former Presidential Guards commander, Brig. Gen. Mustafa Hamdan.(AP photo
shows Hamdan carried by supporters as they celebrate his release from prison in
front of his house in Beirut) Beirut, 30 Apr 09, 07:47
Michel Sleiman, our election
wild card
By Michael Young /Daily Star staff
Thursday, April 30, 2009
As expectations swing one way or the other on the results of Lebanon's upcoming
parliamentary elections in June, an important variable still remains unknown:
Will President Michel Sleiman try to affect the outcome, and if so toward what
purpose?
Publicly, the president has put on a front of irreproachable objectivity. He
will not sponsor candidates, he has said many times, but if a parliamentary bloc
emerges that places itself under the high patronage of Michel Sleiman, then he
would certainly not reject it. However, that can only be part of the story,
because the political future of the president, like his effectiveness after
June, will be intimately tied in to the results of the elections. To put it
bluntly, Sleiman will gain most if he holds the balance in Parliament between a
March 14 bloc on the one side and the alliance between Hizbullah, Michel Aoun,
and Nabih Berri on the other.
What about the other possible scenarios? If March 14 wins a decisive majority,
let's say of 70 seats or more, the president will have less room to maneuver,
not least on the formation of the government, than if he holds the balance
(though that would not necessarily be the case if he has enough parliamentarians
allowing him to form a two-thirds majority with March 14, which is improbable).
He will remain, much like today, a symbol of the state that the majority will be
able to use against the Hizbullah-led opposition. Still, Sleiman will have some
wiggling room to play both sides against each other, with the shortcoming that
he will not control enough parliamentary seats to always do so very effectively.
The worst option for the president would be a decisive victory by the
Hizbullah-Aoun-Berri alliance. This would permit the three blocs to alone choose
the prime minister and hold a majority in the Cabinet. It might also mean, since
Berri is certain to be re-elected as speaker of Parliament, that Sleiman could
find himself uncomfortably isolated, given the likely affinities between the
speaker and the prime minister, even if the latter happens to be Najib Mikati.
At the same time, Sleiman would have to face a resurgent Michel Aoun doubtless
seeking to marginalize the president as paramount representative of the Maronite
Christians.
More generally, Sleiman realizes he can only thrive in a political context where
the state gains in authority. That's unlikely to happen, however, if Hizbullah
and its partners come out of the elections stronger. The primary aim of the
party in the event of a victory will be to set up and impose on the state a
formal understanding protecting its own weapons, expanding its political,
geographical and military autonomy, and placing the state at the service of the
"resistance." That is precisely what Hizbullah's secretary general, Sayyed
Hassan Nasrallah, always planned as his "defense strategy." This process will
involve, from the Lebanese side, undermining Resolution 1559, which calls for
the disarmament of all militias in Lebanon and, through that, chipping away at
Resolution 1701, the (imperfect) instrument of Hizbullah's neutralization in
South Lebanon.
For Sleiman, such an upshot is potentially disastrous. He could find himself as
the head of a state increasingly a pariah in the eyes of the United Nations,
that many countries, particularly the United States, might take a distance from
because of Hizbullah's dominant status in it, and that, resulting from this,
drops back more firmly into the lap of Syria and Iran. And even if the
consequences are not so dire, the president would almost certainly have to
manage a country caught in the crosswinds of inter-Arab rivalry (since Arab
reconciliation would not outlast Hizbullah's transforming Lebanon into a
confrontation state), similar to what is happening today in the bitter dispute
between Egypt and Hizbullah.
If a centrist bloc holds the balance in Parliament and the government, however,
Sleiman would be in a good position to take several measures that enhance his
political role. He would have more authority over the national dialogue sessions
to find a consensual fig-leaf of a solution for Hizbullah's weapons, given that
the party will refuse to disarm. The president would also have more latitude to
develop the Lebanese relationship with Syria, knowing full well that the
Saudi-Syrian rapprochement would compel any prime minister, even Saad Hariri, to
ease tensions with Damascus. This would serve an additional advantage for
Sleiman by marginalizing Aoun, who hopes to remain the main Christian
interlocutor with the Syrian regime, as well as with Iran.
The president also has another idea to strengthen his Christian bona fides. A
theme he has been sounding for some time now, albeit in an understated way, is
that Lebanon needs to redefine the prerogatives of the president. However,
unlike Aoun and those in March 14 who want to drop the Taif Accord altogether,
since it reduced presidential powers, Sleiman sees his proposal as part and
parcel of Taif's implementation. This is a sensible idea, but a perilous one. On
the one side, the president will provoke a negative reaction from both the Sunni
and Shiite communities, who will regard any effort to amend Taif as opening a
Pandora's Box on their own communal prerogatives. And it is equally perilous in
that many Christians have been so mobilized against Taif, that the thought of
using the accord in the Maronites' favor may initially be resisted.
However, there is no doubt that deep down, Maronites, and Christians in general,
would welcome a more effective president constitutionally, and would back
Sleiman if he took the lead in bringing this about. More importantly, Taif
urgently requires full implementation and amelioration to make it more effective
a political instrument. The only thing is, most Lebanese communities will refuse
to discuss a new social contract for as long as one community, the Shiites
represented mainly by Hizbullah, holds the guns.
For all these reasons, keep an eye on Sleiman in the coming month. The president
is playing his cards close to his chest, but more than virtually everybody else
he cannot afford to allow the vote to turn against him. It's for that reason
that the image of a neutral president might hide a more subtle strategy. Michel
Sleiman has walked through enough minefields in the past four years to prove
that subtlety is not his weak point.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR.
Most of Barack Obama's toughest
choices still lie ahead
By Shlomo Ben-Ami
Thursday, April 30, 2009
It was only natural that Barack Obama, a president whose election was one of the
most revolutionary events in American history, should fill his first 100 days in
office with a breathtaking, all-embracing agenda. These are times of trial and
upheaval that call for such daring. Strikingly energetic and self-confident,
Obama has set out on a titanic journey to remake America's economy and redress a
broken and dysfunctional international system.
It is perhaps especially in Obama's domestic policy - the shift to a more
social-democratic tax system and universal health care - that one can best see
the new president's ideological drive. But emphasizing the reduction of social
inequalities does not sit easily with America's profoundly individualistic
ethos, and the attempt to "Europeanize" the nature of the social contract
between the state and its citizens might yet crash against the constitutive
principles of the American system.
When it comes to salvaging America's collapsing financial system, Obama has been
far more interventionist than any European government. For once, the faltering
Czech presidency of the European Union reflected a European consensus when it
defined Obama's astronomic financial stimulus as a "road to hell." The
unprecedented explosion of America's fiscal deficit raises the risk of high
inflation in the future - exactly the kind of scenario that Europeans want to
prevent at all cost.
Obama's foreign policy agenda has been no less audacious than his domestic
undertakings. After eight years of American unilateralism that left behind a
broken transatlantic alliance, resuscitated the specter of a cold war with
Russia, and saw the Middle East decline into a doomsday politics, Obama's
injection of new thinking to endemic problems is extremely welcome.
The organizing principle in the new president's foreign policy is one of not
having principled, ideological guidelines. Essentially, his approach to
international issues is pragmatic, and, in departing from his predecessor's
penchant for power politics, Obama has pledged always to exhaust diplomacy
first.
But Obama might soon realize that most of his predecessors started as believers
in international cooperation, until events forced them to fall back on a
strategy of confrontation. Not even President George W. Bush seemed to be
committed to any particular doctrine in foreign affairs before the terrorist
attacks of September 11, 2001, drove him to unleash his ill-conceived "global
war on terror." The real test of Obama's strategy of dialogue and cooperation
will come only when it fails, and tough choices will have to be made.
Repairing old alliances is vital not only for the exercise of American power,
but also for Europe's empowerment as a global player. Yet America's European
allies administered Obama's first setback. They applauded him everywhere on his
recent trip to Europe, but sent him home almost empty-handed, resisting the idea
of a coordinated fiscal stimulus and, after years of preaching multilateralism,
turning down his call for more European troops for Afghanistan. For many in
Europe, it was easier to live against Bush than to make sacrifices with Obama.
Obama also pushed the "reset button" with Russia, and suggested that he might
freeze Bush's plan to deploy a missile defense system in the Czech Republic and
Poland. The expectation was that Russia would join the United States in putting
pressure on Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions. But this has not yet
happened.
Nor was North Korea impressed by Obama's warnings that America might shoot down
its rocket if they went ahead with their launch in defiance of the United
Nations. Shielded behind a protective China, Kim Jong-il launched his rocket
anyway, and the US refrained from action.
Iran is another front where Obama might be forced to recognize the limits of his
conciliatory approach. He has waived America's long-standing demand that Iran
stop uranium enrichment as a precondition for negotiations, and he has sworn off
any idea of regime change. But the Iranians are the subtlest negotiators to be
found anywhere, and will make certain that their nuclear program outpaces the
negotiations. If that happens, then what?
Nor is it clear what Obama really means by saying that he recognizes Iran's
"rightful place in the community of nations." If this means a special status at
the expense of other Middle East powers such as Egypt or the Gulf states, Obama
might run into strong opposition from America's traditional allies in the
region.
It is right and refreshing that Obama has made clear that America's aspiration
is to lead, not dominate. But even an exercise in modesty and realism requires
strong alliances, with partners ready for sacrifices. Nor would old enemies and
competitors like Russia and China readily abandon the benefits of spoiling
American plans. It is when this becomes crystal clear, and also when some
worn-out foreign-policy paradigms fail, that real choices will have to be made.
**Shlomo Ben Ami is a former Israeli foreign minister who now serves as the
vice-president of the Toledo International Centre for Peace. He is the author of
"Scars of War, Wounds of Peace: The Israeli-Arab Tragedy." THE DAILY STAR
publishes this commentary in collaboration with Project Syndicate (c) (www.project-syndicate.org).