LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
June 30/09

Bible Reading of the day
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 16:13-19. When Jesus went into the region of Caesarea Philippi he asked his disciples, "Who do people say that the Son of Man is?" They replied, "Some say John the Baptist, others Elijah, still others Jeremiah or one of the prophets." He said to them, "But who do you say that I am?" Simon Peter said in reply, "You are the Messiah, the Son of the living God." Jesus said to him in reply, "Blessed are you, Simon son of Jonah. For flesh and blood has not revealed this to you, but my heavenly Father. And so I say to you, you are Peter, and upon this rock I will build my church, and the gates of the netherworld shall not prevail against it. I will give you the keys to the kingdom of heaven. Whatever you bind on earth shall be bound in heaven; and whatever you loose on earth shall be loosed in heaven."

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
Violence in Iran: What the West Needs to Know. By Lt. Col. W. Thomas Smith Jr. 29/06/09
For Hariri to be successful, all he needs is enough time and a good vision. The Daily Star 29/06/09
Will Obama bow to Syria, too?.By: By Pamela Geller/WND.com 29/06/09
Did anyone notice Mossad's new outlook on an Iran bomb? By Yossi Melman 29/06/09
The smoking gun is Iran's voting process.By Michael Meyer-Resende and Mirjam Kunkler 29/06/09

Analysis: Syria's goose lays a golden egg-By: Jonathan Spyer/Jerusalem Post 29/06/09
What If Obama Did Want to Help Iran's Democrats?By: By GABRIEL SCHOENFELD Wall Street Journal 29/06/09

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for June 29/09
1 Killed, 6 Wounded in Beirut Fighting Amidst Worrisome Report on Presence of Masked Gunmen-Naharnet
1 killed as rivals trade gunfire in Beirut-Washington Post
Houri: militias cited a bloody example in Aisha Bakkar/NNA
Opposition Media: This is What Saudi Requested and So Replied Damascus-Naharnet
Partnership, key to solution/Future News
Facilitating cabinet formation acknowledges elections results/Future News
Sleiman: For a national unity government-Future News
Hariri will not back away from forming a new government -Future News
Souaid: state and illegitimate arms cannot coincide-Future News
Mashnouk: To suspend consultations until militias’ issues resolved-Future News
Militiamen attack a colleague in almustaqbal.org-Future News
Baroud: The Lebanese Army, Attorney General are looking into yesterday’s incident/Future News
Mitri: would the campaign against El-Maleh escalate tension with Israel-Future News
Hariri Hits Obstacles Ahead of Government Formation-Naharnet
Inter-Christian Reconciliation Moving Slowly-Naharnet
Raad: We Will Meet Every Positive Step Towards National Consensus with 3
-Naharnet
Hariri Ends Tour of Ex-PMs With Call for End to Internal Divisions
-Naharnet
Fears Iran will use Hezbollah to hit back-Brisbane Times
'This is a sea change in Iran'-Atlanta Journal
Iran detains staff from British Embassy, blames mission for crisis-Star Staff
Hariri to start consultations on makeup of next cabinet-Daily Star
Jumblatt vows to thwart efforts to 'privatize'-Daily Star
LF MP says dialogue key part of state-building-Daily Star
Sfeir welcomes Hariri's appointment as premier-Daily Star
Army tells citizens to ignore phone calls from Israel-Daily Star
Israel to leave Shebaa after peace deal - UN envoy-Daily Star
Justice minister signs MoU with international tribunal-Daily Star
Lebanon sees 28 percent rise in government revenues-By Regional Press Network (RPN)
World Bank lowers Lebanon growth forecast to 2.5 percent-Star Staff
Fire breaks out in forests near Batroun-Daily Star
French comic Elmaleh scraps Beiteddine gig-Daily Star
Five Arab figures receive AUB honorary degrees-Daily Star
Jackson fans stage mass 'moonwalk' in Gemmayzeh-Daily Star
AUB graduates gripped by doubt amid global economic downturn-Daily Star

Sarkozy offered to recruit Syria, Qatar to Shalit efforts-Ha'aretz
Aoun: We asked for partnership in cabinet based on bloc sizes-Now Lebanon
Sakr: We want one group to govern, another to oppose so we know where problems come from-Now Lebanon
Raad: Cabinet’s priority should be how to face Israel-Now Lebanon

1 killed as rivals trade gunfire in Beirut
By HUSSEIN DAKROUB/The Associated Press
Sunday, June 28, 2009; 3:43 PM
BEIRUT -- Sunni supporters of Lebanon's prime minister-designate and Shiite rivals from the parliament speaker's political faction traded gunfire in a Beirut neighborhood Sunday. Security officials said one civilian was killed and two others were wounded in the first outbreak of violence since this month's elections. Automatic rifle fire and three explosions were heard in the brief gunbattle that underlined the continued sectarian tensions despite recent pledges by political leaders to work together. Those pledges followed a bruising election campaign.
Hours earlier, the Western-backed billionaire who is to become the country's next prime minister, Saad Hariri, was holding talks with his predecessors as part of the delicate process of forming a government that can unify the deeply divided country. Lebanese troops cordoned off the Aisha Bakkar neighborhood in the capital's Muslim sector and deployed in force to restore calm Sunday evening, security officials said on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media. They said the dead victim was a 30-year-old woman shot outside her home. The fighting was between supporters of Hariri, a Sunni who leads the parliamentary majority, and rival followers of the Hezbollah-allied Shiite parliament speaker Nabih Berri. In May 2008, heavy clashes erupted between the same rival factions. Hezbollah along with Berri's Amal movement later swept through Sunni neighborhoods to briefly seize control. A political agreement that called for a national unity government and the June 7 parliamentary elections restored peace for about a year. Hariri was named Saturday by Lebanon's president to become the next prime minister after his pro-Western coalition defeated a Hezbollah-backed alliance in the election. All major factions have since pledged to turn a new page.
Sunday's gunfight is not expected to derail the reconciliation efforts, but it showed once again how tensions could quickly spill over onto the streets. It was not clear what sparked the gunfight Sunday, but tension has built up in that neighborhood since Saturday's celebrations by Hariri's supporters, who set off fireworks upon the announcement that he was named as prime minister. Among the challenges facing Hariri is the opposition's possible demand for veto power in the government - something the pro-Western majority has vowed not to give to the militant group Hezbollah and its allies. Hezbollah and its political partners negotiated veto power after Shiite gunmen overran Sunni neighborhoods in Beirut and forced the government's hand in the May 2008 fighting. The veto power has virtually paralyzed the government but ensured a year of relative calm.

Houri: militias cited a bloody example in Aisha Bakkar
Date: June 29th, 2009 Source: NNA /Ammar Houri of the Almustaqbal and Lebanon First parliamentary blocs said Monday the militias had resorted to violence on Sunday in order to do what it was in what it was incapable of doing through elections. “The remaining militias tried to impose through arms what it could not impose through democracy when they attacked peaceful citizens in Aisha Bakkar neighborhood,” Houri told the Voice of Lebanon radio.Houri was referring to the violent armed clashes that erupted on Sunday in Aisha Bakkar neighborhood in West Beirut when Amal movement militia men attacked Almustaqbal Movement supporters who were celebrating the designation of their leader MP Saad Hariri as premier. He described yesterday’s incidents as “the worst bloody incidents since May 7, 2008.” He was recalling the May 7, 2008 incidents that erupted when March 8 militia attacked several Lebanese areas that support the Almustaqbal movement and Progressive Socialist Party. “It is no more acceptable to continue with covering the illegitimate arms that keep on offending and attacking unarmed citizens,’ he added.

Mashnouk: To suspend consultations until militias’ issues resolved

Date: June 29th, 2009 Source: Annahar-Al Sharq Al Awsat
MP Nohad El Mashnouk called on designated Prime Minister Saad Hariri to suspend consultations over the government composition until a solution is found for the militias in Beirut.
Mashnouk also urged President Michel Sleiman to hold a meeting for the Defense Higher Council in order to take the necessary decisions. In a statement he issued yesterday after the armed conflict that occurred in Beirut resulting in the death of a woman and several wounded. “The painful incidents that occurred the past two days made a return to the militias’ logic to take over the people’s lives and the political life in Lebanon,” added Mashnouk who was elected on June 7 for the Sunni seat of Beirut’s second district. Mashnouk, member of the Almustaqbal Movement that achieved an electoral victory along with its allies in the March 14 coalition by winning 71 seats out of 128, considered that these incidents aim at canceling the elections results which is a policy related to the veto power at the government asked for by the opposition. The Beiruti MP called on the parliamentary representative of Beirut to hold a meeting to adopt the statement he issued and to announce the capital a safe place. He also asserted that the effect of the Doha agreement had ended with the parliamentary elections thus veto power that was granted to the March 8 opposition camp is not valid anymore.

Mitri: would the campaign against El-Maleh escalate tension with Israel
Date: June 29th, 2009 /Future News
Information Minister Tarek Mitri asked on Monday whether the campaign launched against Gad El-Maleh that obliged him to cancel his concerts in Beiteddine festivals would escalate the confrontational level between Lebanon and Israel, and wondered how its impact would affect Lebanon’s image and interests. He said that Lebanese people should abide by the obligation of boycotting Israel in all ways and means. “That explains the campaign launched by many citizens, as well as audio-visual Media, against eminent French-Moroccan stand-up comedian, Gad El-Maleh,” Mitri argued. The case came to light this week when Web sites and Lebanese media, including the TV channel of Hizbullah, “Al Manar”, presented El-Maleh, of Moroccan origin and of Jewish faith, as a former Israeli soldier. French stand-up comedian Gad El-Maleh announced Saturday that he had cancelled his Beiteddine Festival performances scheduled for July 13, 14 and 15. El-Maleh said his decision was due to "aggressive stances," which opposed his participation, and "out of concern for his personal security and that of the Beiteddine festival." Hizbullah's Al-Manar television and other pro-opposition media outlets reported last week that Moroccan-Jewish stand-up comedian El-Maleh was “pro-Israeli and served in Israel's army.”The organizing committee of the Beiteddine Festival dismissed the reports. El-Maleh particularly denied that he belonged to the Israeli army. The French singer Patrick Bruel had to cancel concerts in Lebanon in the 1990s for his support for Israel.

Opposition Media: This is What Saudi Requested and So Replied Damascus

Naharnet/High-ranking diplomatic sources said Damascus and Riyadh exchanged a basket of demands during talks between Saudi envoy Prince Abdul Aziz, King Abdullah's son, and Syrian officials last Wednesday. The daily Al Akhbar said the Saudi prince carried with him 4 demands -- end to armed Palestinian presence outside refugee camps, demarcation of Lebanon-Syria border and Shebaa Farms, Pressure on the Opposition to make it abandon its veto power demand and elimination of the higher Lebanese-Syrian Council.
Syria's response was as follows, according to Al Akhbar: Palestinian arms outside refugee camps are not Syrian weapons. It called on the Lebanese government to hold talks with the concerned Palestinian factions to put an end to this issue, stressing that this is a Lebanese-Palestinian issue and Syria has nothing to do with it. It said Damascus expressed willingness to resolve the border issue after the demarcation of Shebaa Farms "so the Jewish State will not benefit." Regarding veto power, Syria insisted this is a Lebanese issue. On demands for the elimination of the Higher Lebanese-Syrian Council, Damascus saw no sense in canceling it before a "healthy" naturalization takes place between the two countries. Beirut, 29 Jun 09, 11:04

Hariri Hits Obstacles Ahead of Government Formation

Naharnet/Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri on Monday kicked off consultations on the formation of a new government as reports revealed obstacles facing the Cabinet's composition, particularly with regards to veto power and proportional representation. Hariri began his consultations by meeting Speaker Nabih Berri in Parliament. The daily An Nahar quoted well-informed sources as saying that the Opposition demand for veto power has not yet been "clearly articulated."The veto power demand, however, does not imply that this proposal would not surface in a "coordinated manner" during Monday's consolations, the daily added. Pan-Arab al-Hayat newspaper, for its part, said the Opposition has not publicly made its demand, while insisting on a national government. As contacts were still ongoing between Qoreitem, Ain el-Tineh and Hizbullah, al-Liwaa daily quoted a Hizbullah source as not ruling out another meeting between Hariri and Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. The Lebanon dossier was tackled during talks between Saudi King Abdullah and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in Jeddah. Egyptian sources told al-Akhbar daily that the Saudi-Egyptian summit discussed ways to prevent possible Syrian intervention in the process of government formation.
As Safir newspaper, meanwhile, uncovered that Saudi Information Minister Abdul Aziz Khoja made a brief visit to Beirut Friday evening. The visit came around 48 hours after a hush-hush trip to Damascus, it said. Beirut, 29 Jun 09, 10:04

1 Killed, 6 Wounded in Beirut Fighting Amidst Worrisome Report on Presence of Masked Gunmen

Naharnet/A 30-year-old mother was killed and six other people were wounded in overnight armed clashes in Beirut between supporters of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and Mustaqbal Movement amidst a worrisome report on the presence of masked gunmen in the streets. The daily An Nahar on Monday said facts showed the presence of masked gunmen, not only in the neighborhoods where fighting took place but also in their environs as well as other areas. According to information obtained by An Nahar, armed groups opened fire and stormed Aisha Bakkar neighborhood of Beirut around 8 pm Sunday. It said Zeina Miri, 30, was killed by gunfire as she stood on the balcony of her apartment in Aisha Bakkar.
While some reports said that Miri was killed when gunmen opened fire on the building, others said she fell victim to a stray bullet. As Safir newspaper, for its part, said fighting broke out against the backdrop of what appeared to be a non-politically motivated incident on Saturday that accompanied celebratory gunfire when Mustaqbal Movement rejoiced Hariri's nomination for the premiership. Security sources said fighting with automatic weapons and rocket-propelled grenades erupted in Aisha Bakkar around 8 pm Sunday pitting supporters of Berri's Amal Movement against Mustaqbal Movement of Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri. Clashes quickly spread to reach nearby areas of Talet Khayyat, Mar Elias, Verdun, Hay el-Lija, Musaitbeh and Khandaq al-Ghamiq before Lebanese troops stepped in to restore order. The Lebanese military ordered its forces to open fire on any armed man in the street as troops deployed en masse to prevent further escalation. Local media on Monday said Lebanese troops arrested several suspects from both sides in overnight house raids. They said Lebanese troops managed around 9 p.m. to regain control of the situation. The fighting comes only a day after al-Mustaqbal Movement leader Saad Hariri was named as prime minister, with the support of his parliamentary bloc and Amal. It also followed the re-election of Nabih Berri as Parliament Speaker on Thursday. March 14 Forces, to which Hariri belongs, clinched 71 of the 128-seat Parliament in general elections on June 7, defeating the Hizbullah-led Opposition. In May 2008 after several months of political crisis and paralysis in Lebanon, Hizbullah backed by Amal seized control of mainly Sunni parts of west Beirut in sectarian clashes that killed more than 100 people. Beirut, 29 Jun 09, 09:03

Inter-Christian Reconciliation Moving Slowly
Naharnet/The Christian-Christian reconciliation is proceeding at a slow pace. Despite the efforts of religious and non-religious leaders to bring Christian parties together and find common grounds, the reconciliation is still at a preliminary stage.
Informed sources told An Nahar daily that discussions have failed to set up a clear reconciliation agenda and were instead concentrating on national subjects and post elections phase.
Sources close to Marada movement said secret meetings held between the different Christian parties before the June parliamentary elections were to ensure the elections took place peacefully and calmly. "These meeting have succeeded in maintaining calm among Marada and Lebanese Forces supporters who live in common villages in north Lebanon," they added.
"The Maronite League has a planned agenda; however, it has not launched a serious reconciliation yet," the sources added. "The party's (Marada's) priority is reconciliation among partisans," they said, "conditions for personal reconciliation will need more time." Informed sources close to the Lebanese Forces said inter-Christian agreement was a cornerstone as reconciliations between the Progressive Socialist Party and Mustaqbal movement on one hand and Amal and Hizbullah on the other were taking place. "We have to overcome our past and look together at the future," they added. Sources said the LF offered concessions and was ready to conclude reconciliation prior to elections; nonetheless, Marada movement leader Suleiman Franjieh wished to take things slowly. The same sources denied any serious talks on this matter. Some fear tensions between President Michel Suleiman and MP Franjieh have hindered reconciliation, a process to take place under the patronage of the head of state.LF sources said their party was on good terms with MP Michel Aoun; thus, no reconciliation was required. "Every party has its own projects and visions and differences can be solved democratically and in a civilized way," they added. Sources denied any efforts to set up a meeting between Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea and Free Patriotic Movement leader Aoun. Beirut, 29 Jun 09, 11:23

Raad: We Will Meet Every Positive Step Towards National Consensus with 3
Naharnet/Loyalty to the Resistance bloc leader MP Mohammed Raad said Hizbullah will meet every positive step towards building the state and achieving national consensus, with three positive steps. "We will finalize all necessary steps in order to achieve national consensus at this sensitive time when Lebanon is in need for a unified stance among its different forces," he said Sunday. The opposition "demands a national unity government and PM-designate Saad Hariri said he cared about forming such a cabinet. We are hoping he meets our openness with a rhetoric similar to ours," Raad said.  Raad was commenting on Hariri's latest speech during a celebration in Nabatiyeh. The Hizbullah MP hoped his bloc would achieve its goals in cooperation with its allies in the opposition. Beirut, 29 Jun 09, 09:37

Hariri Ends Tour of Ex-PMs With Call for End to Internal Divisions
Naharnet/PM-designate Saad Hariri on Sunday wound up a protocol tour of former prime ministers with a pledge to put an end to inter-Lebanese divisions. "We should stop divisions and open a new page," Hariri said at the end of his tour after visiting outgoing Premier Fouad Saniora late afternoon. Hariri kicked off his tour at midday Sunday with a visit to Gen. Michel Aoun. From there he headed to meet former PMs Amin Hafez, Rashid Solh, Salim Hoss, Omar Karami and Najib Miqati.Also on Sunday, Hariri decided not to file lawsuits against insults and accusations targeting his person or political affiliation. A statement from his office said Hariri hoped that all those involved will repair the damage and come together to rebuild national accord. Beirut, 28 Jun 09, 19:25

Fears Iran will use Hezbollah to hit back
By: Damien McElroy
The Sun-Herald/June 28, 2009
THERE are fears of a new wave of international terrorism provoked by the reaction to the presidential elections in Iran, after the regime backed an expansion of the network operated by Lebanon's Hezbollah. The warnings about global retaliation came after the US President, Barack Obama, and the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, held a joint news conference at the White House in Washington calling for a halt to the Iranian Government's violent crackdown on demonstrators or face isolation.
Mr Obama said: "A government that treats its own citizens with that kind of ruthlessness and violence and that cannot deal with peaceful protesters who are trying to have their voices heard in an equally peaceful way I think has moved outside of universal norms." Since the elections, Iran's leaders have criticised the West, blaming British and other foreign agents for inciting demonstrations, after presidential candidates accused officials of rigging the election. Intelligence experts have warned that, rather than merely seeking to distract attention from its domestic turmoil with rhetoric, Iran will seek "retaliation" beyond its borders. "Hezbollah has stretched, facilitated by Iran, across the Middle East, Central Asia, Europe and Latin America," said Magnus Ranstorp, a terrorism expert at Sweden's National Defence University. "Hezbollah has become more susceptible to Iran's efforts to project its influence."
Intelligence experts believe that Germany, where Hezbollah has about 900 operatives, is the most vulnerable location in Europe. "Hezbollah is capable of striking in Germany or planning an incident, like the al-Qaeda cell in Hamburg that planned the attack on New York," said Alexander Ritzmann, a fellow at the European Centre for Democracy.
Hezbollah says it is a Lebanese political party, although it acknowledges that it maintains an arsenal of weapons as "resistance" against Israel. In recent months it has been implicated in weapons smuggling, assassination attempts and illicit smuggling schemes in other countries including Egypt, Azerbaijan, Belgium and the US. Source:


Sfeir welcomes Hariri's appointment as premier

Daily Star staff/Monday, June 29, 2009
BKIRKI: Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir welcomed on Sunday Future Movement Saad Hariri's designation for the post of prime minister as a "very good" step. "We wish him luck in his mission to form a government," Sfeir said during Sunday's sermon at the Notre Dame church in Bkirki. "Deputies will decide whether or not the formation will face hurdles," he added. Tackling other issues, Sfeir criticized the high cost of petrol, warning that it added to the burdens of the Lebanese. - The Daily Star

Jumblatt vows to thwart efforts to 'privatize'

By Maher Zeineddine /Daily Star correspondent /Monday, June 29, 2009
BEIRUT: Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblatt said on Sunday that the public sector should be preserved, adding that he would not be part of a cabinet that promotes "privatization." He said Public Works and Transport Minister Ghazi Aridi was criticized for proposing a plan to activate the public transport sector. "He was fought by the premiership but he survived," Jumblatt said. In a ceremony honoring retiring Director General of the Transport and Railways Authority Radwan Abu Nasr, Jumblatt said that Lebanon was "meaningless" without Arabism and Palestine.

LF MP says dialogue key part of state-building

Daily Star staff/Monday, June 29, 2009
BEIRUT: Lebanese Forces (LF) MP George Adwan was quoted as saying on Sunday that dialogue was a quintessential component of state-building. Adwan reiterated to Ad-Diyar newspaper that LF boss Samir Geagea was willing to meet with Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and leaders of all other parties. Adwan said the Shiite community was a fundamental component of Lebanese society. He added that the Lebanese Forces were willing to give President Michel Sleiman the final say "in all important issues." He added that the most acceptable structure for the cabinet would be for the parliamentary majority to have 16 cabinet seats, the opposition to have 10 seats and the president to have four. - The Daily Star

For Hariri to be successful, all he needs is enough time and a good vision

By The Daily Star /Monday, June 29, 2009
Editorial
Now that Saad Hariri has officially been appointed to become Lebanon's next prime minister, his first responsibility will be to form the country's next government. The challenge will not be as vexing as it seems if Hariri keeps two things in mind as he proceeds. First, there is no reason for him to rush the process. Any problems and divisions that exist in the country now would only be aggravated if the process of choosing ministers were a hurried and haphazard one. Nothing can stop Hariri from taking all of the time permitted by the Constitution for forming the cabinet, and it would be worthwhile for him to give appropriate consideration to a variety of issues before deciding on the final makeup of the government.
Second, a good starting point for any venture is a fleshed-out vision. A cabinet should not be formed just for the sake of forming a cabinet. Rather, it should have a purpose, procedure and plan that can only emerge from a specific vision that is articulated by Hariri.
Perhaps no one understands this second principle better than Hariri himself. As a successful businessman who has managed a variety of companies, Hariri knows that any good business deal starts with a good vision. The multiple projects that his companies have carried out across the Middle East, Africa and Europe have all started with a specific vision, and this way of doing things has enabled his companies to achieve a reputation for delivering the highest standard of quality
It is likely that Hariri will choose to pursue the cabinet formation in a similar manner, and if he does, he will be the first premier, with perhaps the exception of his father, the late Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, to start his premiership with a vision.
A good vision would allow for a new way of doing business in cabinet. It would also mark the start of what is likely to be a decade-long journey of reconstituting the relationship between the citizen and the state. Hariri would find in President Michel Sleiman a good ally for such a bold mission.
Once he has outlined his vision, he can discuss it with the major party leaders before revealing it to the public. And the Lebanese people would likely warmly support such a sense of professionalism when it comes to running the cabinet. Citizens have grown exasperated with politics as usual and would welcome any change, especially one that is aimed at serving their interests. An appropriate vision would lay the groundwork for the cabinet to tackle a variety of issues, such as bolstering the independence of the judiciary and streamlining bureaucratic procedures. Such steps would move the culture of the state away from its current "control mode" and toward the notion of serving the citizens.

The smoking gun is Iran's voting process
By Michael Meyer-Resende and Mirjam Kunkler
Daily Star/Monday, June 29, 2009
Iran's Guardian Council has ruled out an annulment of the controversial Iranian presidential election, but the debate about the credibility of the official results will not go away any time soon. Detailed analyses, such as a recent Chatham House study, raise serious doubts about the results, although until now they have produced no "smoking gun." But the smoking gun is in fact the election process itself. Iran's election laws are so short of minimal guarantees of transparency that any less-than-plausible results are bound to provoke a lack public confidence. There is no remedy now to a process that was so opaque that it could have been manipulated at any stage. The only solution is to hold new Iranian elections, with basic transparency safeguards.
From the outset, Iranian elections have been flawed. They are administered by the Interior Ministry and supervised by the Guardian Council - two institutions that lack independence and impartiality. The right to freely stand in elections is often violated, because numerous candidates are rejected by the Guardian Council.
Beyond these shortcomings, in the aftermath of the recent elections, human rights have been widely abused - student activists and street protestors have been killed, opposition leaders hindered from appearing in public rallies, and peaceful demonstrations broken up.
As far as transparency is concerned, Iranian election laws omit basic safeguards, necessary in any tense and conflict-prone election. A key feature of a transparent election is that all parties are provided with official result sheets of polling stations that can later be compared in case of dispute. These also need to be immediately displayed at polling stations so that both the public and the media can take note. When the results of various polling stations are added together at higher levels of the election administration, representatives of candidates should be permitted to be present and able to sign the official result sheets or register an official complaint. The aggregated results should then be immediately publicly displayed and placed on the internet.
Nothing of this nature is required in Iranian election laws.
Instead, nationwide results were announced a few hours after the close of polling stations. Three days later, the Interior Ministry published a breakdown of results by province and sub-province, but did not make public the official polling station results sheets. After a further three days, the ministry published the results of each polling station. Publication of the results in this way - top down rather than bottom up and without sufficient transparency - created a possibility of widespread manipulation.
The state authorities called on the opposition to substantiate fraud in front of the Guardian Council, which is responsible for reviewing election complaints. But the council is not impartial and the lack of transparency in the election process has prevented the opposition from gathering evidence. Having not been given copies of official result sheets, how can it prove the official numbers are wrong? The opposition's ability to follow the results process was further hampered on election night when their communications were cut and their offices blocked.
The burden of proof should have been on the authorities to back up the official results. The Interior Ministry should have published detailed results immediately after the elections, not one week later. Furthermore, to this day, the results have not been substantiated. By law, five official sheets of polling station results had to be prepared, which are kept by various branches of the electoral administration. None of these have been published.
The problem now is that a process so lacking in transparency from the outset cannot be remedied in retrospect. Even a recount, whether partial or total, will not do. If the authorities wanted to commit fraud, the legal framework gave them ample time and opportunities to manipulate the numbers, change the result sheets, and swap ballots in the boxes. Only a complete re-run of the election with much greater transparency and a conducive human rights context can be a solution.
In the long term, the Iranian electoral framework should be overhauled to establish independent bodies that can manage the voting process and address complaints with impartiality. This would enhance public confidence in the elections and help avoid the controversy and bloodshed that have marred the elections over the past two weeks.
***Michael Meyer-Resende co-ordinates Democracy Reporting International, a Berlin-based group that has analyzed numerous electoral frameworks in the Middle East (www.democracy-reporting.org). Mirjam Kunkler is an assistant professor of Near Eastern politics at Princeton University. They wrote this commentary for THE DAILY STAR.

Did anyone notice Mossad's new outlook on an Iran bomb?

By Yossi Melman /Daily Star
Monday, June 29, 2009
Paradoxically, the current crisis in Iran is producing two contradictory impacts on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The first clear outcome was the statement made by head of the Mossad, Meir Dagan, two weeks ago. In a surprise move, Dagan dismissed the previous assessments of the Israeli intelligence community regarding Iran's nuclear program and stated that Iran's secret military program would mature only in 2014.
For 15 years, Israel's Military Intelligence and the Mossad have regularly altered their assessment regarding the date when Iran's nuclear program becomes operational. The deadline has been constantly pushed forward, from the late 1990s to the beginning and then the middle of this decade, and finally to the 2009-2010 period. And now suddenly, out of the blue this has become 2014. These frequent fluctuations have damaged the reputation of Israel's intelligence agencies worldwide and have confused the public. The intelligence estimates have been perceived by many in the world as "alarmist" and designed to serve political and diplomatic goals.
In saying that the deadline for an Iranian bomb is 2014, Dagan accepted a Central Intelligence Agency assessment that Israel had criticized in the past. The CIA has repeatedly and consistently determined that Iran would have its first bomb not before 2015.
Seemingly, there is no direct connection between the semi-revolution that has been taking place in the streets of Iran and the Mossad analysis. Conceivably, Dagan unintentionally and even innocently introduced his estimate in the midst of the Iranian crisis. But the timing of his declaration evidently proves the opposite. Knowing how cunning and calculating the chief of Mossad is, I can only wonder why he chose this occasion to publicize his estimate and did not wait, say, for a few weeks or at least days. Thus, it should not be ruled out that he has a hidden personal or organizational agenda.
One way or another, Dagan effectively undermined the "party line" and the agenda of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who only a few weeks ago tried to convince the Obama administration that "Iran [must come] first." Netanyahu and his government, who are not ready to freeze the settlements, withdraw from the West Bank and enter into a peace deal with the Palestinian Liberation Organization, hoped to persuade the world that the Iranian nuclear threat was more dangerous and acute not only for Israel but for the stability of the Middle East; therefore, that this required immediate attention, while peace with the Palestinians and with Syria could wait.
No more. Not only has a military option, in other words an attack by the Israel Air Force on Iranian nuclear installations, become more remote, but Israel has also lost its Iranian excuse not to accelerate peace negotiations with the Palestinians.
Still, this severe home-made blow to Netanyahu's hopes and plans is balanced off by another ramification favorable to Israel. Iran's foreign and defense policy - its nuclear program and support for Hamas and Hizbullah - has not been a real issue in motivating the Iranian demonstrations and protests. True, during the election campaign opposition leader Mir Hussein Mousavi publicly expressed his opinion that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's provocative statements didn't serve Iranian interests and image abroad. Nevertheless, foreign policy issues were a minor factor in these demonstrations, if at all.
Yet, regardless of the final outcome of the crisis, and even if Ahmadinejad comes back as president for a second term, the ayatollahs' regime has clearly suffered a major blow, and its self-confidence has been shaken. This will force the regime to devote more time, energy and resources to fixing the economy and trying to accommodate some of the concerns raised by the demonstrators. Foreign policy is bound to be a lesser priority.
The first victims of such a development will be Hamas and Hizbullah. They will most probably be marginalized in the Iranian's regime's inner discourse and will get less financial, military, diplomatic and moral support from their Iranian benefactors.
This can be good news for Israel as well as for the Palestinian Authority and moderate forces in the Arab world. Under normal circumstances, such a development might serve as the launching pad for a peace process. Yet that is doubtful. Netanyahu has no serious intention of moving forward on peace and will continue to search for new excuses to replace the vanished Iranian pretext in order to prolong his delaying tactics and politically survive and hang onto power.
On the other hand, the Palestinian leadership is highly divided and lacks the courage, vision and power to compromise on core issues important to the Israeli national consensus (Jerusalem and the refugees) and thus will play once again into the hands of a rigid Israeli government.
All in all, the opportunity that the Iranian crisis is providing will probably evaporate sooner rather than later.
**Yossi Melman writes for the Israeli daily Haaretz on intelligence and strategic affairs, including nuclear and regional issues. He is coauthor of "The Nuclear Sphinx: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the State of Iran" (Carroll & Graf, New York). This commentary first appeared at bitterlemons.org, an online newsletter that publishes articles on the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Violence in Iran: What the West Needs to Know
By Lt. Col. W. Thomas Smith Jr.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
The violent crackdown continues in the wake of Iran’s disputed June 12 presidential elections in which—according to the Wall Street Journal—“hard-line clerics have rallied behind Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in supporting President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s declared landslide poll victory.”
Hardly a “victory,” much less a “landslide,” so-say supporters of opposition candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and and Mehdi Karroubi, who have “challenged the vote, alleging widespread vote-rigging.”
Despite restrictions on media, at least 20 people have reportedly been killed and hundreds wounded by Basij militia forces. Some sources suggest the death toll is much higher. And it doesn’t appear as if the mullahs, Ahmadinejad, and their cronies are going to let up until any hint of expressed opposition is crushed.
Additionally, according to the Kuwaiti newspaper Alseyassah, the leadership of Lebanon-based Hizballah is appealing to the Iranian regime—literally the hand that feeds Hizballah—to use all means to quash the opposition movement in Iran. Alseyassah also reports “a number of troops of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps [IRGC] in Kuwait, Iraq, Lebanon and Syria have been recalled to Tehran ... to join the Tha’r Allah [Vengeance of God] forces ... These special forces are in charge of protecting the regime.”
Saturday, I discussed Iran with Middle East expert Dr. Walid Phares—director of the Future of Terrorism Project for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies—for the initial Q&A in what will be an ongoing series of interviews, Three Questions for Dr. Walid Phares, providing timely perspective on Middle East issues and international terrorism as events unfold.
W. THOMAS SMITH JR.: Considering the large pro-democracy turnouts in recent elections in Lebanon and Iran—and the now seeming desperation on the part of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to quash all dissent—is the IRGC, its Quds force, Hizballah, etc., on the ropes? Does the West now have a strategic opportunity here?

DR. WALID PHARES: The Iranian people have a unique opportunity to liberate themselves from 30-years of oppression embodied by the Vilayet e-Faqih Jihadist regime with its Pasdaran and Basij militias. Such windows of opportunity come only once every one or two decades, and many young Iranians understand this. Hence we have this explosive uprising in the streets of Tehran, and we will continue to see urban opposition for a long time inside Iran.
Moreover, the Lebanese people, who have been under the yoke of Hizballah terror for a quarter century, also have an unexpected opening wherein regional support for Hizballah may be declining inasmuch as Iran’s regime may well lose its ability to support Hizballah. Lebanon’s Cedars Revolution, which has been under attack for the last four years may also derive tremendous benefit from the youth uprising in Tehran. But even though both civil societies in Iran and Lebanon are looking at a generational opportunity to defeat the terror system in the region, it is really in the hands of the free world and particularly in the hands of the United States to either hasten the advance of democracy or let go of the latter, allowing the Pasdaran to win.
There seems to be an amazing alignment of the planets in favor of pushing back against these terror forces in the region, but Washington will have to say “yes” or “no” to the international push. Iranians and Lebanese can only struggle, but America and other democracies can make it happen soon or in the far future. So, Pasdaran, Quds force and Hizballah aren’t on the ropes as you say. But with a quick, serious international alignment of the international community coordinating with the uprising, these militias can be isolated and their terror power significantly reduced. If the West doesn’t realize this huge change taking place now out of Tehran and take action, the so-called “Tha’r Allah” forces will become an extremely dangerous tool in the hands of a surviving angry regime.
SMITH: Is there not also an increased danger of an IRGC-inspired attack elsewhere in the world, to divert attention from Thar Allah operations in Iran?
PHARES: Obviously. Strategically, the Iranian regime is bleeding politically. Its credibility is gone, even if it crushes the opposition and pursues the youth across the country. And when such regimes see their political shields shattered, they begin acting irrationally and preemptively. Iran’s billions of petrodollars invested in propaganda via satellite TV, as well as the infiltration and influence of Western media have built an unnatural image of the regime camouflaging the oppression. As a result, journalists and academics have described Iran’s Khomeinist regime as “reasonable, stable, and with whom democracies can conduct business.” The young men and women on the streets of Tehran have come very close to destroying this expensive public-relations image. Hence, the IRGC could be tasked to strike at targets overseas and engage in terror regionally as a means of deflecting attention from the “Tha’r Allah” operations inside the so-called “republic.” The international community in general, Western democracies in particular must be very attentive to the possibility of Pasdaran-guided, ordered and/or inspired terror operations worldwide as the crisis inside Iran persists. Therefore, it is crucial that the West in general and the United States in particular work on backing the democratic uprising in Iran now before the Pasdaran takes them by surprise. This is not an issue of luxurious choice, it is a matter of national security.
SMITH: What is the West failing to understand, that we must get our heads around regarding the IRGC—its subsidiaries like Hizballah—and the “Tha’r Allah” forces?
PHARES: As of the fall of 2006, early 2007, the pro-Iranian-regime lobby in the United States—and some other Western countries—has succeeded in imposing a new equation regarding Iran. Whether it is because of propositions of oil advantages or false promises of help in Iraq and Afghanistan, it is a fact that the Iran policy in the United States has shifted during the last two years of the Bush Administration and throughout the current Obama administration from considering the Iranian regime as a strategic foe supporting terrorism to just a nuisance with which one might cut a deal. U.S. policy has reached a summit of contradictions as its intelligence and legal components consider the Pasdaran and Quds force, as well as Hizballah, as terrorists; yet our political decision-makers look at the Iran of Khamenei as a potential partner in regional political business. The West—particularly the U.S. and the UK—knows all too well that the IRGC and Hizballah are strategic threats but a political decision was made to disregard this reality hoping that it would—or could—end when the “engagement path” would bare fruit. This is a dangerous game, a bet that is irrational, which may cost democracies greater losses and the region’s civil societies longer oppression. The Tehran uprising should be viewed as an event of destiny, and it should open Western eyes. Let’s see if Washington and London figure it out and change course or stubbornly continue toward the precipice.
**Thomas Smith Jr. – a former U.S. Marine rifle-squad leader and counterterrorism instructor – is a journalist, author, and military analyst whose work has appeared in the New York Post, USA TODAY, U.S. News & World Report, BusinessWeek, CBS News, and many others. Smith writes about military/defense issues and has covered conflict in the Balkans, on the West Bank, in Iraq and Lebanon. Visit him online at uswriter.com.
*Thomas can be reached at: letters@canadafreepress.com
W. Thomas Smith Jr.
“a military expert” — USA TODAY

Analysis: Syria's goose lays a golden egg

By JONATHAN SPYER
Jerusalem Post 28/06/09
Washington's decision to return its ambassador to Syria is the latest stage in the present administration's policy of engagement with Damascus. It relates most importantly to the US desire to secure Syrian cooperation in the build-up to the departure of American combat troops from urban areas in Iraq. The decision is related to the broader American ambition of drawing Damascus away from Iran. Hopes for a revival of talks between Israel and Syria, and the desire to enlist Syria in the ongoing effort to bring about a rapprochement between the Palestinian Fatah movement and the Damascus-domiciled Hamas may also have played a role.
Regarding Iraq, the US is aware that Sunni insurgents will have an interest in ratcheting up the level of violence as the US prepares to draw down its combat forces - to give the impression that it is they who are bringing about the American redeployment. Syria has served as a key ally of the Sunni insurgency since its beginnings. For a period, the route between Damascus airport and the Syrian-Iraqi border was a favorite one for Sunni jihadis seeking to enter Iraq to take part in the insurgency.
In recent months, US officials have reported an improvement in Syrian control on the border, and a reduction in the number of insurgents crossing over. In the familiar Syrian fashion, Damascus's promotion of violence against Americans, and its subsequent willingness to partially reduce this promotion, is used as a tool to reap diplomatic rewards.
Regarding the Palestinian angle: ongoing Palestinian unity talks in Cairo have so far proved fruitless. Despite its focus on a revived Israeli-Palestinian peace process, the administration is aware that for as long as an openly rejectionist Hamas entity continues to rule over 40 percent of the Palestinian population, hopes for a meaningful negotiating process belong largely to the realm of fantasy.
There is therefore a real determination, shared by Egypt and the Palestinian Authority, to make a success of the unity effort. Hamas's leadership is based in Damascus, so efforts to bring Syria closer to Washington may also be intended to enlist Syrian support in pressuring Hamas towards greater flexibility.
The revival of Israeli-Syrian talks is likely to feature on the administration's agenda at some stage in the coming period. The presence of a US representative in Damascus would facilitate US mediation.
The biggest prize, however - a Syrian strategic reorientation away from alliance with Iran - is likely to continue to prove elusive.
An angry, more openly militant Iranian regime is likely to emerge in the coming weeks from the current unrest. It will be hated by a large section of its people. But this will not harm either its desire or its ability to support radical forces in the region.
For the Syrians, the maintenance of alliances with various Islamist and radical regional elements forms a key element of national strategy. It is one which continues to pay dividends. The past months have shown that the Syrians may repair relations with the West at little cost to themselves, while maintaining this stance. One does not, as the saying goes, kill the goose that lays the golden egg. The Syrian "goose" combines alliance with Iran and support for regional instability with occasional gestures of cooperation to the West. It has just delivered the "golden egg" of a new US ambassador in Damascus in return for no concessions on issues of core importance to the Assad regime.
**Jonathan Spyer is a senior researcher at the Global Research in International Affairs Center, IDC, Herzliya.

Will Obama bow to Syria, too?
Posted: June 29, 2009
By Pamela Geller
© 2009
Barack Obama is going full throttle with his wrong-headed policy of appeasement and capitulation: The Obama administration announced Wednesday that it was sending an American ambassador back to Syria, after a four-year gap. White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said, "This strongly reflects the administration's recognition of the role Syria plays, and the hope of the role that the Syrian government can play constructively to promote peace and stability in the region."
CNN reported that Syria's ambassador to the United States, Imad Moustapha, said essentially the same thing – that "the decision reflects the genuine desire by the United States to reverse Bush administration policy and engage Syria, which he said would be good for both nations and for the region."
What's wrong with this? For one thing, Syria is on the U.S. State Department's "State Sponsors of Terrorism" list. It has been on that list since December 29, 1979, when the list was created. What has changed? The United States has not had an ambassador in Damascus since February 2005, when the Bush administration recalled its ambassador and expressed its "profound outrage" over the assassination of the Prime Minister Rafik Hariri of Lebanon, a foe of Syrian hegemony over that country.
Of course President Bush withdrew the American representative – because Syria was assassinating the leaders of Lebanon, was and is supporting Hamas and Hezbollah, and was meddling in Iraq and Lebanon. Again, what has changed? Only our president
Obama's latest handover of Lebanon to Syria has generated outrage and frustration among reformers and freedom lovers in the Middle East. And that's understandable: When John Bolton was at the United Nations, we held Syrians accountable for their assassinations of pro-Lebanon political figures and anti-Syrian cabinet ministers and journalists. It was a U.N. investigation in 2006 that found links between Syrian President Bashar Assad and company and the assassinations of anti-Syrian politicians and journalists in Lebanon, including Hariri, Bashir Gemayal and others. Syria fully intends to marginalize and neutralize the small Christian population of Lebanon and install Islamic rule, and Hezbollah is complicit in this effort. Hezbollah is not Lebanese – it is an Iranian foreign legion. It's ironic that the loser in Iran's disputed presidential election, former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, was a founder of Hezbollah. He is not at all the champion of freedom that some in the West like to imagine that he is.
Syria also remains a lethal threat to the rest of the world. Remember that it was a nuclear bomb making factory in Syria that Israel took out on September 6, 2007 – and the North Koreans provided that factory. Meanwhile, the world continues to turn a blind eye to the fact that, for the Islamic world, the mere existence of Israel is enough to sanction countless murders of Jews and calls for the "removal of Israel."
Nor is that likely to change. The world is spinning out of control since the U.S. switched sides (against itself, I might add) and elected a jihad president – the world's policeman is off duty. Now that Obama has given the Islamic supremacists in Damascus and Tehran all but a free pass, the barbarians are killing without fear of reprisal. The Islamonazis can kill anyone they want, murder with utter abandon, and the world yawns – or speaks about some ambiguous humiliation to which the jihadists are legitimately responding.
This, of course, is not new. This has for quite some time been Democratic Party policy: to side with America's enemies. After House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit with Assad (where clearly a deal with the devil was made), I interviewed the courageous Egyptian blogger who calls himself "Egyptian Sandmonkey." He said: "I was in Turkey a couple of weeks ago and I met a couple of Syrian activists. They told me one thing that was really funny about the Pelosi visit. After Pelosi came to Syria two things happened. People on Syrian TV were saying, 'We forced the Americans to knock on the Damascus gate!'" Even worse, he noted that "the day after Pelosi's visits there were immediate arrests of Syrian activists. That was the fruit she yielded. 'Oh, the Americans came over and they said they have a different foreign policy and they're more interested in placating Bashar's ego.' And he went out and got [arrested] everyone he wanted because he knew he had an ally in Washington that wouldn't pressure him as much."
That was Pelosi. And now Syria has an even greater ally in Washington.
*Pamela Geller is the editor and publisher of the Atlas Shrugs website and former associate publisher of the New York Observer. Her op-eds have appeared in The Washington Times, The American Thinker, Israel National News and other publications.

What If Obama Did Want to Help Iran's Democrats?
By GABRIEL SCHOENFELD

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124623147117266147.html
Thus far, debate over American policy toward Iran has revolved around President Barack Obama's various responses. When Iran's electoral crisis first erupted, he downplayed its significance, calling the two rival candidates, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Mir Hossein Mousavi, "tweedledum and tweedledee." A week later, he sharply condemned the Islamic regime, describing himself as "appalled and outraged" by the government's actions.
But are presidential pronouncements -- however pusillanimous or intrepid -- the limit of American power?
The ayatollahs' nuclear ambitions make Iran one the most critical countries for the future of U.S. foreign policy. Beyond the immediate problem of nuclear proliferation, there is the broader issue of Iranian influence spreading via proxy forces in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza. And even beyond that, the Iranian Revolution of 1979 is the original wellspring of the Islamic fundamentalism that has swept the world over the past three decades.
In a better world, toppling this vicious regime and altering the tide of history would be a primary objective of U.S. foreign policy. Yet even if President Obama miraculously came to that conclusion, how could he realize such an objective? This is a useful question to ask because it reveals how much the United States has disarmed itself in the vital realm of intelligence.
In the late 1940s through the late 1950s, the U.S. faced similar problems in various locales around the world. One of them was Italy, where there was a very real danger that the highly organized Italian Communist Party -- benefiting from huge covert subsidies from the Kremlin -- would come to power via the ballot box. Soviet funds had enabled that party to build a dense network of paid organizers that operated in every region and created front groups in every sector of society, from farmers to veterans to students.
The prospect of Italy becoming the first country in Europe to fall to Communism via subversion rather than direct force of Soviet arms was not, at the height of the Cold War, something the U.S. could abide. So the CIA was instructed, first by Harry Truman and then by Dwight Eisenhower, to stop it. It was the challenge presented by Italy's vulnerability in its 1948 election that prompted the fledgling spy agency to create its Office of Policy Coordination. The banal-sounding name was a cover for what was an aggressive tool of covert political propaganda and paramilitary operations.
Over the course of the 1950s, the CIA secretly funneled money to forces in Italy's political center. This enabled democratically oriented parties to match the Italian Communist Party activist for activist. When revealed years later, the policy was subjected to scathing criticism. But it had worked. Fragile Italy remained democratic in the 1950s and is a stable democracy today.
Harsh criticism of such operations -- beginning in the 1970s when all the CIA's secrets spilled out -- is what prompted the U.S. to dismantle its capabilities in covert political action. Interfering in the internal affairs of other countries, legions of agency critics said, was both immoral and illegal.
As a matter of law, the critics are right. Such covert action is indeed illegal. But legality is beside the point. Espionage is by definition illegal and yet all countries engage in it. This is what the Soviet Union did in Italy, and it is what Iran, by organizing terrorist structures in the Middle East, Europe and elsewhere, has been doing intensively for 30 years.
As for the moral issues involved in covert operations, they are the standard ones of balancing means and ends. Self-defense is the basic right of every state; open warfare is certainly permitted to uphold it. Covert warfare, so long as it is similarly defensive, is no different. Yet throughout our history, a higher moralism has periodically come along and led us to shun intelligence operations, as when Herbert Hoover's Secretary of State Henry L. Stimson famously declared that "gentlemen do not read other gentlemen's mail." Stimson then shuttered his department's code-breaking operation just as terrible storms were beginning to gather across both the Atlantic and the Pacific.
Today, as a breaking point in the Islamic Republic appears to recede from view as a result of brutal violence, the U.S. appears utterly powerless to influence the course of events. Yet how much better off both Iran and the world would be if the CIA, operating covertly through local friendly forces, could have helped, say, to spark a general strike to topple the ruthless regime of the ayatollahs.
The great irony in all this is that even as the U.S. seeks to claim the moral high ground by not "meddling" -- to use Mr. Obama's term -- we and our allies are getting blamed all the same. "There are riots and attacks in the streets that are orchestrated from the outside in a bid to destabilize the country's Islamic regime," says Sheikh Naim Qassem, a ranking figure of Hezbollah, Iran's obedient instrument in Lebanon.
We are thus paying the price of running covert operations even as we gain absolutely none of the benefits. Rebuilding our capacity in this area cannot be accomplished overnight. Meanwhile, as Iran's nuclear ambitions continue unabated, we may in the end have to pay a high price in treasure and blood for having declined to pay the relatively low cost of mounting secret warfare.
Mr. Schoenfeld, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C. and a resident scholar at the Witherspoon Institute in Princeton, N.J., is the author of "Necessary Secrets: National Security, the Media, and the Rule of Law" to be published by W.W. Norton in 2010.

 


Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 16:13-19. When Jesus went into the region of Caesarea Philippi he asked his disciples, "Who do people say that the Son of Man is?" They replied, "Some say John the Baptist, others Elijah, still others Jeremiah or one of the prophets." He said to them, "But who do you say that I am?" Simon Peter said in reply, "You are the Messiah, the Son of the living God." Jesus said to him in reply, "Blessed are you, Simon son of Jonah. For flesh and blood has not revealed this to you, but my heavenly Father. And so I say to you, you are Peter, and upon this rock I will build my church, and the gates of the netherworld shall not prevail against it. I will give you the keys to the kingdom of heaven. Whatever you bind on earth shall be bound in heaven; and whatever you loose on earth shall be loosed in heaven."
 

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN

LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
June 30/09

Bible Reading of the day
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 16:13-19. When Jesus went into the region of Caesarea Philippi he asked his disciples, "Who do people say that the Son of Man is?" They replied, "Some say John the Baptist, others Elijah, still others Jeremiah or one of the prophets." He said to them, "But who do you say that I am?" Simon Peter said in reply, "You are the Messiah, the Son of the living God." Jesus said to him in reply, "Blessed are you, Simon son of Jonah. For flesh and blood has not revealed this to you, but my heavenly Father. And so I say to you, you are Peter, and upon this rock I will build my church, and the gates of the netherworld shall not prevail against it. I will give you the keys to the kingdom of heaven. Whatever you bind on earth shall be bound in heaven; and whatever you loose on earth shall be loosed in heaven."

Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special Reports
Violence in Iran: What the West Needs to Know. By Lt. Col. W. Thomas Smith Jr. 29/06/09
For Hariri to be successful, all he needs is enough time and a good vision. The Daily Star 29/06/09
Will Obama bow to Syria, too?.By: By Pamela Geller/WND.com 29/06/09
Did anyone notice Mossad's new outlook on an Iran bomb? By Yossi Melman 29/06/09
The smoking gun is Iran's voting process.By Michael Meyer-Resende and Mirjam Kunkler 29/06/09

Analysis: Syria's goose lays a golden egg-By: Jonathan Spyer/Jerusalem Post 29/06/09
What If Obama Did Want to Help Iran's Democrats?By: By GABRIEL SCHOENFELD Wall Street Journal 29/06/09

Latest News Reports From Miscellaneous Sources for June 29/09
1 Killed, 6 Wounded in Beirut Fighting Amidst Worrisome Report on Presence of Masked Gunmen-Naharnet
1 killed as rivals trade gunfire in Beirut-Washington Post
Houri: militias cited a bloody example in Aisha Bakkar/NNA
Opposition Media: This is What Saudi Requested and So Replied Damascus-Naharnet
Partnership, key to solution/Future News
Facilitating cabinet formation acknowledges elections results/Future News
Sleiman: For a national unity government-Future News
Hariri will not back away from forming a new government -Future News
Souaid: state and illegitimate arms cannot coincide-Future News
Mashnouk: To suspend consultations until militias’ issues resolved-Future News
Militiamen attack a colleague in almustaqbal.org-Future News
Baroud: The Lebanese Army, Attorney General are looking into yesterday’s incident/Future News
Mitri: would the campaign against El-Maleh escalate tension with Israel-Future News
Hariri Hits Obstacles Ahead of Government Formation-Naharnet
Inter-Christian Reconciliation Moving Slowly-Naharnet
Raad: We Will Meet Every Positive Step Towards National Consensus with 3
-Naharnet
Hariri Ends Tour of Ex-PMs With Call for End to Internal Divisions
-Naharnet
Fears Iran will use Hezbollah to hit back-Brisbane Times
'This is a sea change in Iran'-Atlanta Journal
Iran detains staff from British Embassy, blames mission for crisis-Star Staff
Hariri to start consultations on makeup of next cabinet-Daily Star
Jumblatt vows to thwart efforts to 'privatize'-Daily Star
LF MP says dialogue key part of state-building-Daily Star
Sfeir welcomes Hariri's appointment as premier-Daily Star
Army tells citizens to ignore phone calls from Israel-Daily Star
Israel to leave Shebaa after peace deal - UN envoy-Daily Star
Justice minister signs MoU with international tribunal-Daily Star
Lebanon sees 28 percent rise in government revenues-By Regional Press Network (RPN)
World Bank lowers Lebanon growth forecast to 2.5 percent-Star Staff
Fire breaks out in forests near Batroun-Daily Star
French comic Elmaleh scraps Beiteddine gig-Daily Star
Five Arab figures receive AUB honorary degrees-Daily Star
Jackson fans stage mass 'moonwalk' in Gemmayzeh-Daily Star
AUB graduates gripped by doubt amid global economic downturn-Daily Star

Sarkozy offered to recruit Syria, Qatar to Shalit efforts-Ha'aretz
Aoun: We asked for partnership in cabinet based on bloc sizes-Now Lebanon
Sakr: We want one group to govern, another to oppose so we know where problems come from-Now Lebanon
Raad: Cabinet’s priority should be how to face Israel-Now Lebanon

1 killed as rivals trade gunfire in Beirut
By HUSSEIN DAKROUB/The Associated Press
Sunday, June 28, 2009; 3:43 PM
BEIRUT -- Sunni supporters of Lebanon's prime minister-designate and Shiite rivals from the parliament speaker's political faction traded gunfire in a Beirut neighborhood Sunday. Security officials said one civilian was killed and two others were wounded in the first outbreak of violence since this month's elections. Automatic rifle fire and three explosions were heard in the brief gunbattle that underlined the continued sectarian tensions despite recent pledges by political leaders to work together. Those pledges followed a bruising election campaign.
Hours earlier, the Western-backed billionaire who is to become the country's next prime minister, Saad Hariri, was holding talks with his predecessors as part of the delicate process of forming a government that can unify the deeply divided country. Lebanese troops cordoned off the Aisha Bakkar neighborhood in the capital's Muslim sector and deployed in force to restore calm Sunday evening, security officials said on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media. They said the dead victim was a 30-year-old woman shot outside her home. The fighting was between supporters of Hariri, a Sunni who leads the parliamentary majority, and rival followers of the Hezbollah-allied Shiite parliament speaker Nabih Berri. In May 2008, heavy clashes erupted between the same rival factions. Hezbollah along with Berri's Amal movement later swept through Sunni neighborhoods to briefly seize control. A political agreement that called for a national unity government and the June 7 parliamentary elections restored peace for about a year. Hariri was named Saturday by Lebanon's president to become the next prime minister after his pro-Western coalition defeated a Hezbollah-backed alliance in the election. All major factions have since pledged to turn a new page.
Sunday's gunfight is not expected to derail the reconciliation efforts, but it showed once again how tensions could quickly spill over onto the streets. It was not clear what sparked the gunfight Sunday, but tension has built up in that neighborhood since Saturday's celebrations by Hariri's supporters, who set off fireworks upon the announcement that he was named as prime minister. Among the challenges facing Hariri is the opposition's possible demand for veto power in the government - something the pro-Western majority has vowed not to give to the militant group Hezbollah and its allies. Hezbollah and its political partners negotiated veto power after Shiite gunmen overran Sunni neighborhoods in Beirut and forced the government's hand in the May 2008 fighting. The veto power has virtually paralyzed the government but ensured a year of relative calm.

Houri: militias cited a bloody example in Aisha Bakkar
Date: June 29th, 2009 Source: NNA /Ammar Houri of the Almustaqbal and Lebanon First parliamentary blocs said Monday the militias had resorted to violence on Sunday in order to do what it was in what it was incapable of doing through elections. “The remaining militias tried to impose through arms what it could not impose through democracy when they attacked peaceful citizens in Aisha Bakkar neighborhood,” Houri told the Voice of Lebanon radio.Houri was referring to the violent armed clashes that erupted on Sunday in Aisha Bakkar neighborhood in West Beirut when Amal movement militia men attacked Almustaqbal Movement supporters who were celebrating the designation of their leader MP Saad Hariri as premier. He described yesterday’s incidents as “the worst bloody incidents since May 7, 2008.” He was recalling the May 7, 2008 incidents that erupted when March 8 militia attacked several Lebanese areas that support the Almustaqbal movement and Progressive Socialist Party. “It is no more acceptable to continue with covering the illegitimate arms that keep on offending and attacking unarmed citizens,’ he added.

Mashnouk: To suspend consultations until militias’ issues resolved

Date: June 29th, 2009 Source: Annahar-Al Sharq Al Awsat
MP Nohad El Mashnouk called on designated Prime Minister Saad Hariri to suspend consultations over the government composition until a solution is found for the militias in Beirut.
Mashnouk also urged President Michel Sleiman to hold a meeting for the Defense Higher Council in order to take the necessary decisions. In a statement he issued yesterday after the armed conflict that occurred in Beirut resulting in the death of a woman and several wounded. “The painful incidents that occurred the past two days made a return to the militias’ logic to take over the people’s lives and the political life in Lebanon,” added Mashnouk who was elected on June 7 for the Sunni seat of Beirut’s second district. Mashnouk, member of the Almustaqbal Movement that achieved an electoral victory along with its allies in the March 14 coalition by winning 71 seats out of 128, considered that these incidents aim at canceling the elections results which is a policy related to the veto power at the government asked for by the opposition. The Beiruti MP called on the parliamentary representative of Beirut to hold a meeting to adopt the statement he issued and to announce the capital a safe place. He also asserted that the effect of the Doha agreement had ended with the parliamentary elections thus veto power that was granted to the March 8 opposition camp is not valid anymore.

Mitri: would the campaign against El-Maleh escalate tension with Israel
Date: June 29th, 2009 /Future News
Information Minister Tarek Mitri asked on Monday whether the campaign launched against Gad El-Maleh that obliged him to cancel his concerts in Beiteddine festivals would escalate the confrontational level between Lebanon and Israel, and wondered how its impact would affect Lebanon’s image and interests. He said that Lebanese people should abide by the obligation of boycotting Israel in all ways and means. “That explains the campaign launched by many citizens, as well as audio-visual Media, against eminent French-Moroccan stand-up comedian, Gad El-Maleh,” Mitri argued. The case came to light this week when Web sites and Lebanese media, including the TV channel of Hizbullah, “Al Manar”, presented El-Maleh, of Moroccan origin and of Jewish faith, as a former Israeli soldier. French stand-up comedian Gad El-Maleh announced Saturday that he had cancelled his Beiteddine Festival performances scheduled for July 13, 14 and 15. El-Maleh said his decision was due to "aggressive stances," which opposed his participation, and "out of concern for his personal security and that of the Beiteddine festival." Hizbullah's Al-Manar television and other pro-opposition media outlets reported last week that Moroccan-Jewish stand-up comedian El-Maleh was “pro-Israeli and served in Israel's army.”The organizing committee of the Beiteddine Festival dismissed the reports. El-Maleh particularly denied that he belonged to the Israeli army. The French singer Patrick Bruel had to cancel concerts in Lebanon in the 1990s for his support for Israel.

Opposition Media: This is What Saudi Requested and So Replied Damascus

Naharnet/High-ranking diplomatic sources said Damascus and Riyadh exchanged a basket of demands during talks between Saudi envoy Prince Abdul Aziz, King Abdullah's son, and Syrian officials last Wednesday. The daily Al Akhbar said the Saudi prince carried with him 4 demands -- end to armed Palestinian presence outside refugee camps, demarcation of Lebanon-Syria border and Shebaa Farms, Pressure on the Opposition to make it abandon its veto power demand and elimination of the higher Lebanese-Syrian Council.
Syria's response was as follows, according to Al Akhbar: Palestinian arms outside refugee camps are not Syrian weapons. It called on the Lebanese government to hold talks with the concerned Palestinian factions to put an end to this issue, stressing that this is a Lebanese-Palestinian issue and Syria has nothing to do with it. It said Damascus expressed willingness to resolve the border issue after the demarcation of Shebaa Farms "so the Jewish State will not benefit." Regarding veto power, Syria insisted this is a Lebanese issue. On demands for the elimination of the Higher Lebanese-Syrian Council, Damascus saw no sense in canceling it before a "healthy" naturalization takes place between the two countries. Beirut, 29 Jun 09, 11:04

Hariri Hits Obstacles Ahead of Government Formation

Naharnet/Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri on Monday kicked off consultations on the formation of a new government as reports revealed obstacles facing the Cabinet's composition, particularly with regards to veto power and proportional representation. Hariri began his consultations by meeting Speaker Nabih Berri in Parliament. The daily An Nahar quoted well-informed sources as saying that the Opposition demand for veto power has not yet been "clearly articulated."The veto power demand, however, does not imply that this proposal would not surface in a "coordinated manner" during Monday's consolations, the daily added. Pan-Arab al-Hayat newspaper, for its part, said the Opposition has not publicly made its demand, while insisting on a national government. As contacts were still ongoing between Qoreitem, Ain el-Tineh and Hizbullah, al-Liwaa daily quoted a Hizbullah source as not ruling out another meeting between Hariri and Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. The Lebanon dossier was tackled during talks between Saudi King Abdullah and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in Jeddah. Egyptian sources told al-Akhbar daily that the Saudi-Egyptian summit discussed ways to prevent possible Syrian intervention in the process of government formation.
As Safir newspaper, meanwhile, uncovered that Saudi Information Minister Abdul Aziz Khoja made a brief visit to Beirut Friday evening. The visit came around 48 hours after a hush-hush trip to Damascus, it said. Beirut, 29 Jun 09, 10:04

1 Killed, 6 Wounded in Beirut Fighting Amidst Worrisome Report on Presence of Masked Gunmen

Naharnet/A 30-year-old mother was killed and six other people were wounded in overnight armed clashes in Beirut between supporters of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and Mustaqbal Movement amidst a worrisome report on the presence of masked gunmen in the streets. The daily An Nahar on Monday said facts showed the presence of masked gunmen, not only in the neighborhoods where fighting took place but also in their environs as well as other areas. According to information obtained by An Nahar, armed groups opened fire and stormed Aisha Bakkar neighborhood of Beirut around 8 pm Sunday. It said Zeina Miri, 30, was killed by gunfire as she stood on the balcony of her apartment in Aisha Bakkar.
While some reports said that Miri was killed when gunmen opened fire on the building, others said she fell victim to a stray bullet. As Safir newspaper, for its part, said fighting broke out against the backdrop of what appeared to be a non-politically motivated incident on Saturday that accompanied celebratory gunfire when Mustaqbal Movement rejoiced Hariri's nomination for the premiership. Security sources said fighting with automatic weapons and rocket-propelled grenades erupted in Aisha Bakkar around 8 pm Sunday pitting supporters of Berri's Amal Movement against Mustaqbal Movement of Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri. Clashes quickly spread to reach nearby areas of Talet Khayyat, Mar Elias, Verdun, Hay el-Lija, Musaitbeh and Khandaq al-Ghamiq before Lebanese troops stepped in to restore order. The Lebanese military ordered its forces to open fire on any armed man in the street as troops deployed en masse to prevent further escalation. Local media on Monday said Lebanese troops arrested several suspects from both sides in overnight house raids. They said Lebanese troops managed around 9 p.m. to regain control of the situation. The fighting comes only a day after al-Mustaqbal Movement leader Saad Hariri was named as prime minister, with the support of his parliamentary bloc and Amal. It also followed the re-election of Nabih Berri as Parliament Speaker on Thursday. March 14 Forces, to which Hariri belongs, clinched 71 of the 128-seat Parliament in general elections on June 7, defeating the Hizbullah-led Opposition. In May 2008 after several months of political crisis and paralysis in Lebanon, Hizbullah backed by Amal seized control of mainly Sunni parts of west Beirut in sectarian clashes that killed more than 100 people. Beirut, 29 Jun 09, 09:03

Inter-Christian Reconciliation Moving Slowly
Naharnet/The Christian-Christian reconciliation is proceeding at a slow pace. Despite the efforts of religious and non-religious leaders to bring Christian parties together and find common grounds, the reconciliation is still at a preliminary stage.
Informed sources told An Nahar daily that discussions have failed to set up a clear reconciliation agenda and were instead concentrating on national subjects and post elections phase.
Sources close to Marada movement said secret meetings held between the different Christian parties before the June parliamentary elections were to ensure the elections took place peacefully and calmly. "These meeting have succeeded in maintaining calm among Marada and Lebanese Forces supporters who live in common villages in north Lebanon," they added.
"The Maronite League has a planned agenda; however, it has not launched a serious reconciliation yet," the sources added. "The party's (Marada's) priority is reconciliation among partisans," they said, "conditions for personal reconciliation will need more time." Informed sources close to the Lebanese Forces said inter-Christian agreement was a cornerstone as reconciliations between the Progressive Socialist Party and Mustaqbal movement on one hand and Amal and Hizbullah on the other were taking place. "We have to overcome our past and look together at the future," they added. Sources said the LF offered concessions and was ready to conclude reconciliation prior to elections; nonetheless, Marada movement leader Suleiman Franjieh wished to take things slowly. The same sources denied any serious talks on this matter. Some fear tensions between President Michel Suleiman and MP Franjieh have hindered reconciliation, a process to take place under the patronage of the head of state.LF sources said their party was on good terms with MP Michel Aoun; thus, no reconciliation was required. "Every party has its own projects and visions and differences can be solved democratically and in a civilized way," they added. Sources denied any efforts to set up a meeting between Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea and Free Patriotic Movement leader Aoun. Beirut, 29 Jun 09, 11:23

Raad: We Will Meet Every Positive Step Towards National Consensus with 3
Naharnet/Loyalty to the Resistance bloc leader MP Mohammed Raad said Hizbullah will meet every positive step towards building the state and achieving national consensus, with three positive steps. "We will finalize all necessary steps in order to achieve national consensus at this sensitive time when Lebanon is in need for a unified stance among its different forces," he said Sunday. The opposition "demands a national unity government and PM-designate Saad Hariri said he cared about forming such a cabinet. We are hoping he meets our openness with a rhetoric similar to ours," Raad said.  Raad was commenting on Hariri's latest speech during a celebration in Nabatiyeh. The Hizbullah MP hoped his bloc would achieve its goals in cooperation with its allies in the opposition. Beirut, 29 Jun 09, 09:37

Hariri Ends Tour of Ex-PMs With Call for End to Internal Divisions
Naharnet/PM-designate Saad Hariri on Sunday wound up a protocol tour of former prime ministers with a pledge to put an end to inter-Lebanese divisions. "We should stop divisions and open a new page," Hariri said at the end of his tour after visiting outgoing Premier Fouad Saniora late afternoon. Hariri kicked off his tour at midday Sunday with a visit to Gen. Michel Aoun. From there he headed to meet former PMs Amin Hafez, Rashid Solh, Salim Hoss, Omar Karami and Najib Miqati.Also on Sunday, Hariri decided not to file lawsuits against insults and accusations targeting his person or political affiliation. A statement from his office said Hariri hoped that all those involved will repair the damage and come together to rebuild national accord. Beirut, 28 Jun 09, 19:25

Fears Iran will use Hezbollah to hit back
By: Damien McElroy
The Sun-Herald/June 28, 2009
THERE are fears of a new wave of international terrorism provoked by the reaction to the presidential elections in Iran, after the regime backed an expansion of the network operated by Lebanon's Hezbollah. The warnings about global retaliation came after the US President, Barack Obama, and the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, held a joint news conference at the White House in Washington calling for a halt to the Iranian Government's violent crackdown on demonstrators or face isolation.
Mr Obama said: "A government that treats its own citizens with that kind of ruthlessness and violence and that cannot deal with peaceful protesters who are trying to have their voices heard in an equally peaceful way I think has moved outside of universal norms." Since the elections, Iran's leaders have criticised the West, blaming British and other foreign agents for inciting demonstrations, after presidential candidates accused officials of rigging the election. Intelligence experts have warned that, rather than merely seeking to distract attention from its domestic turmoil with rhetoric, Iran will seek "retaliation" beyond its borders. "Hezbollah has stretched, facilitated by Iran, across the Middle East, Central Asia, Europe and Latin America," said Magnus Ranstorp, a terrorism expert at Sweden's National Defence University. "Hezbollah has become more susceptible to Iran's efforts to project its influence."
Intelligence experts believe that Germany, where Hezbollah has about 900 operatives, is the most vulnerable location in Europe. "Hezbollah is capable of striking in Germany or planning an incident, like the al-Qaeda cell in Hamburg that planned the attack on New York," said Alexander Ritzmann, a fellow at the European Centre for Democracy.
Hezbollah says it is a Lebanese political party, although it acknowledges that it maintains an arsenal of weapons as "resistance" against Israel. In recent months it has been implicated in weapons smuggling, assassination attempts and illicit smuggling schemes in other countries including Egypt, Azerbaijan, Belgium and the US. Source:


Sfeir welcomes Hariri's appointment as premier

Daily Star staff/Monday, June 29, 2009
BKIRKI: Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir welcomed on Sunday Future Movement Saad Hariri's designation for the post of prime minister as a "very good" step. "We wish him luck in his mission to form a government," Sfeir said during Sunday's sermon at the Notre Dame church in Bkirki. "Deputies will decide whether or not the formation will face hurdles," he added. Tackling other issues, Sfeir criticized the high cost of petrol, warning that it added to the burdens of the Lebanese. - The Daily Star

Jumblatt vows to thwart efforts to 'privatize'

By Maher Zeineddine /Daily Star correspondent /Monday, June 29, 2009
BEIRUT: Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblatt said on Sunday that the public sector should be preserved, adding that he would not be part of a cabinet that promotes "privatization." He said Public Works and Transport Minister Ghazi Aridi was criticized for proposing a plan to activate the public transport sector. "He was fought by the premiership but he survived," Jumblatt said. In a ceremony honoring retiring Director General of the Transport and Railways Authority Radwan Abu Nasr, Jumblatt said that Lebanon was "meaningless" without Arabism and Palestine.

LF MP says dialogue key part of state-building

Daily Star staff/Monday, June 29, 2009
BEIRUT: Lebanese Forces (LF) MP George Adwan was quoted as saying on Sunday that dialogue was a quintessential component of state-building. Adwan reiterated to Ad-Diyar newspaper that LF boss Samir Geagea was willing to meet with Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and leaders of all other parties. Adwan said the Shiite community was a fundamental component of Lebanese society. He added that the Lebanese Forces were willing to give President Michel Sleiman the final say "in all important issues." He added that the most acceptable structure for the cabinet would be for the parliamentary majority to have 16 cabinet seats, the opposition to have 10 seats and the president to have four. - The Daily Star

For Hariri to be successful, all he needs is enough time and a good vision

By The Daily Star /Monday, June 29, 2009
Editorial
Now that Saad Hariri has officially been appointed to become Lebanon's next prime minister, his first responsibility will be to form the country's next government. The challenge will not be as vexing as it seems if Hariri keeps two things in mind as he proceeds. First, there is no reason for him to rush the process. Any problems and divisions that exist in the country now would only be aggravated if the process of choosing ministers were a hurried and haphazard one. Nothing can stop Hariri from taking all of the time permitted by the Constitution for forming the cabinet, and it would be worthwhile for him to give appropriate consideration to a variety of issues before deciding on the final makeup of the government.
Second, a good starting point for any venture is a fleshed-out vision. A cabinet should not be formed just for the sake of forming a cabinet. Rather, it should have a purpose, procedure and plan that can only emerge from a specific vision that is articulated by Hariri.
Perhaps no one understands this second principle better than Hariri himself. As a successful businessman who has managed a variety of companies, Hariri knows that any good business deal starts with a good vision. The multiple projects that his companies have carried out across the Middle East, Africa and Europe have all started with a specific vision, and this way of doing things has enabled his companies to achieve a reputation for delivering the highest standard of quality
It is likely that Hariri will choose to pursue the cabinet formation in a similar manner, and if he does, he will be the first premier, with perhaps the exception of his father, the late Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, to start his premiership with a vision.
A good vision would allow for a new way of doing business in cabinet. It would also mark the start of what is likely to be a decade-long journey of reconstituting the relationship between the citizen and the state. Hariri would find in President Michel Sleiman a good ally for such a bold mission.
Once he has outlined his vision, he can discuss it with the major party leaders before revealing it to the public. And the Lebanese people would likely warmly support such a sense of professionalism when it comes to running the cabinet. Citizens have grown exasperated with politics as usual and would welcome any change, especially one that is aimed at serving their interests. An appropriate vision would lay the groundwork for the cabinet to tackle a variety of issues, such as bolstering the independence of the judiciary and streamlining bureaucratic procedures. Such steps would move the culture of the state away from its current "control mode" and toward the notion of serving the citizens.

The smoking gun is Iran's voting process
By Michael Meyer-Resende and Mirjam Kunkler
Daily Star/Monday, June 29, 2009
Iran's Guardian Council has ruled out an annulment of the controversial Iranian presidential election, but the debate about the credibility of the official results will not go away any time soon. Detailed analyses, such as a recent Chatham House study, raise serious doubts about the results, although until now they have produced no "smoking gun." But the smoking gun is in fact the election process itself. Iran's election laws are so short of minimal guarantees of transparency that any less-than-plausible results are bound to provoke a lack public confidence. There is no remedy now to a process that was so opaque that it could have been manipulated at any stage. The only solution is to hold new Iranian elections, with basic transparency safeguards.
From the outset, Iranian elections have been flawed. They are administered by the Interior Ministry and supervised by the Guardian Council - two institutions that lack independence and impartiality. The right to freely stand in elections is often violated, because numerous candidates are rejected by the Guardian Council.
Beyond these shortcomings, in the aftermath of the recent elections, human rights have been widely abused - student activists and street protestors have been killed, opposition leaders hindered from appearing in public rallies, and peaceful demonstrations broken up.
As far as transparency is concerned, Iranian election laws omit basic safeguards, necessary in any tense and conflict-prone election. A key feature of a transparent election is that all parties are provided with official result sheets of polling stations that can later be compared in case of dispute. These also need to be immediately displayed at polling stations so that both the public and the media can take note. When the results of various polling stations are added together at higher levels of the election administration, representatives of candidates should be permitted to be present and able to sign the official result sheets or register an official complaint. The aggregated results should then be immediately publicly displayed and placed on the internet.
Nothing of this nature is required in Iranian election laws.
Instead, nationwide results were announced a few hours after the close of polling stations. Three days later, the Interior Ministry published a breakdown of results by province and sub-province, but did not make public the official polling station results sheets. After a further three days, the ministry published the results of each polling station. Publication of the results in this way - top down rather than bottom up and without sufficient transparency - created a possibility of widespread manipulation.
The state authorities called on the opposition to substantiate fraud in front of the Guardian Council, which is responsible for reviewing election complaints. But the council is not impartial and the lack of transparency in the election process has prevented the opposition from gathering evidence. Having not been given copies of official result sheets, how can it prove the official numbers are wrong? The opposition's ability to follow the results process was further hampered on election night when their communications were cut and their offices blocked.
The burden of proof should have been on the authorities to back up the official results. The Interior Ministry should have published detailed results immediately after the elections, not one week later. Furthermore, to this day, the results have not been substantiated. By law, five official sheets of polling station results had to be prepared, which are kept by various branches of the electoral administration. None of these have been published.
The problem now is that a process so lacking in transparency from the outset cannot be remedied in retrospect. Even a recount, whether partial or total, will not do. If the authorities wanted to commit fraud, the legal framework gave them ample time and opportunities to manipulate the numbers, change the result sheets, and swap ballots in the boxes. Only a complete re-run of the election with much greater transparency and a conducive human rights context can be a solution.
In the long term, the Iranian electoral framework should be overhauled to establish independent bodies that can manage the voting process and address complaints with impartiality. This would enhance public confidence in the elections and help avoid the controversy and bloodshed that have marred the elections over the past two weeks.
***Michael Meyer-Resende co-ordinates Democracy Reporting International, a Berlin-based group that has analyzed numerous electoral frameworks in the Middle East (www.democracy-reporting.org). Mirjam Kunkler is an assistant professor of Near Eastern politics at Princeton University. They wrote this commentary for THE DAILY STAR.

Did anyone notice Mossad's new outlook on an Iran bomb?

By Yossi Melman /Daily Star
Monday, June 29, 2009
Paradoxically, the current crisis in Iran is producing two contradictory impacts on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The first clear outcome was the statement made by head of the Mossad, Meir Dagan, two weeks ago. In a surprise move, Dagan dismissed the previous assessments of the Israeli intelligence community regarding Iran's nuclear program and stated that Iran's secret military program would mature only in 2014.
For 15 years, Israel's Military Intelligence and the Mossad have regularly altered their assessment regarding the date when Iran's nuclear program becomes operational. The deadline has been constantly pushed forward, from the late 1990s to the beginning and then the middle of this decade, and finally to the 2009-2010 period. And now suddenly, out of the blue this has become 2014. These frequent fluctuations have damaged the reputation of Israel's intelligence agencies worldwide and have confused the public. The intelligence estimates have been perceived by many in the world as "alarmist" and designed to serve political and diplomatic goals.
In saying that the deadline for an Iranian bomb is 2014, Dagan accepted a Central Intelligence Agency assessment that Israel had criticized in the past. The CIA has repeatedly and consistently determined that Iran would have its first bomb not before 2015.
Seemingly, there is no direct connection between the semi-revolution that has been taking place in the streets of Iran and the Mossad analysis. Conceivably, Dagan unintentionally and even innocently introduced his estimate in the midst of the Iranian crisis. But the timing of his declaration evidently proves the opposite. Knowing how cunning and calculating the chief of Mossad is, I can only wonder why he chose this occasion to publicize his estimate and did not wait, say, for a few weeks or at least days. Thus, it should not be ruled out that he has a hidden personal or organizational agenda.
One way or another, Dagan effectively undermined the "party line" and the agenda of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who only a few weeks ago tried to convince the Obama administration that "Iran [must come] first." Netanyahu and his government, who are not ready to freeze the settlements, withdraw from the West Bank and enter into a peace deal with the Palestinian Liberation Organization, hoped to persuade the world that the Iranian nuclear threat was more dangerous and acute not only for Israel but for the stability of the Middle East; therefore, that this required immediate attention, while peace with the Palestinians and with Syria could wait.
No more. Not only has a military option, in other words an attack by the Israel Air Force on Iranian nuclear installations, become more remote, but Israel has also lost its Iranian excuse not to accelerate peace negotiations with the Palestinians.
Still, this severe home-made blow to Netanyahu's hopes and plans is balanced off by another ramification favorable to Israel. Iran's foreign and defense policy - its nuclear program and support for Hamas and Hizbullah - has not been a real issue in motivating the Iranian demonstrations and protests. True, during the election campaign opposition leader Mir Hussein Mousavi publicly expressed his opinion that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's provocative statements didn't serve Iranian interests and image abroad. Nevertheless, foreign policy issues were a minor factor in these demonstrations, if at all.
Yet, regardless of the final outcome of the crisis, and even if Ahmadinejad comes back as president for a second term, the ayatollahs' regime has clearly suffered a major blow, and its self-confidence has been shaken. This will force the regime to devote more time, energy and resources to fixing the economy and trying to accommodate some of the concerns raised by the demonstrators. Foreign policy is bound to be a lesser priority.
The first victims of such a development will be Hamas and Hizbullah. They will most probably be marginalized in the Iranian's regime's inner discourse and will get less financial, military, diplomatic and moral support from their Iranian benefactors.
This can be good news for Israel as well as for the Palestinian Authority and moderate forces in the Arab world. Under normal circumstances, such a development might serve as the launching pad for a peace process. Yet that is doubtful. Netanyahu has no serious intention of moving forward on peace and will continue to search for new excuses to replace the vanished Iranian pretext in order to prolong his delaying tactics and politically survive and hang onto power.
On the other hand, the Palestinian leadership is highly divided and lacks the courage, vision and power to compromise on core issues important to the Israeli national consensus (Jerusalem and the refugees) and thus will play once again into the hands of a rigid Israeli government.
All in all, the opportunity that the Iranian crisis is providing will probably evaporate sooner rather than later.
**Yossi Melman writes for the Israeli daily Haaretz on intelligence and strategic affairs, including nuclear and regional issues. He is coauthor of "The Nuclear Sphinx: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the State of Iran" (Carroll & Graf, New York). This commentary first appeared at bitterlemons.org, an online newsletter that publishes articles on the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Violence in Iran: What the West Needs to Know
By Lt. Col. W. Thomas Smith Jr.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
The violent crackdown continues in the wake of Iran’s disputed June 12 presidential elections in which—according to the Wall Street Journal—“hard-line clerics have rallied behind Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in supporting President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s declared landslide poll victory.”
Hardly a “victory,” much less a “landslide,” so-say supporters of opposition candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and and Mehdi Karroubi, who have “challenged the vote, alleging widespread vote-rigging.”
Despite restrictions on media, at least 20 people have reportedly been killed and hundreds wounded by Basij militia forces. Some sources suggest the death toll is much higher. And it doesn’t appear as if the mullahs, Ahmadinejad, and their cronies are going to let up until any hint of expressed opposition is crushed.
Additionally, according to the Kuwaiti newspaper Alseyassah, the leadership of Lebanon-based Hizballah is appealing to the Iranian regime—literally the hand that feeds Hizballah—to use all means to quash the opposition movement in Iran. Alseyassah also reports “a number of troops of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps [IRGC] in Kuwait, Iraq, Lebanon and Syria have been recalled to Tehran ... to join the Tha’r Allah [Vengeance of God] forces ... These special forces are in charge of protecting the regime.”
Saturday, I discussed Iran with Middle East expert Dr. Walid Phares—director of the Future of Terrorism Project for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies—for the initial Q&A in what will be an ongoing series of interviews, Three Questions for Dr. Walid Phares, providing timely perspective on Middle East issues and international terrorism as events unfold.
W. THOMAS SMITH JR.: Considering the large pro-democracy turnouts in recent elections in Lebanon and Iran—and the now seeming desperation on the part of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to quash all dissent—is the IRGC, its Quds force, Hizballah, etc., on the ropes? Does the West now have a strategic opportunity here?

DR. WALID PHARES: The Iranian people have a unique opportunity to liberate themselves from 30-years of oppression embodied by the Vilayet e-Faqih Jihadist regime with its Pasdaran and Basij militias. Such windows of opportunity come only once every one or two decades, and many young Iranians understand this. Hence we have this explosive uprising in the streets of Tehran, and we will continue to see urban opposition for a long time inside Iran.
Moreover, the Lebanese people, who have been under the yoke of Hizballah terror for a quarter century, also have an unexpected opening wherein regional support for Hizballah may be declining inasmuch as Iran’s regime may well lose its ability to support Hizballah. Lebanon’s Cedars Revolution, which has been under attack for the last four years may also derive tremendous benefit from the youth uprising in Tehran. But even though both civil societies in Iran and Lebanon are looking at a generational opportunity to defeat the terror system in the region, it is really in the hands of the free world and particularly in the hands of the United States to either hasten the advance of democracy or let go of the latter, allowing the Pasdaran to win.
There seems to be an amazing alignment of the planets in favor of pushing back against these terror forces in the region, but Washington will have to say “yes” or “no” to the international push. Iranians and Lebanese can only struggle, but America and other democracies can make it happen soon or in the far future. So, Pasdaran, Quds force and Hizballah aren’t on the ropes as you say. But with a quick, serious international alignment of the international community coordinating with the uprising, these militias can be isolated and their terror power significantly reduced. If the West doesn’t realize this huge change taking place now out of Tehran and take action, the so-called “Tha’r Allah” forces will become an extremely dangerous tool in the hands of a surviving angry regime.
SMITH: Is there not also an increased danger of an IRGC-inspired attack elsewhere in the world, to divert attention from Thar Allah operations in Iran?
PHARES: Obviously. Strategically, the Iranian regime is bleeding politically. Its credibility is gone, even if it crushes the opposition and pursues the youth across the country. And when such regimes see their political shields shattered, they begin acting irrationally and preemptively. Iran’s billions of petrodollars invested in propaganda via satellite TV, as well as the infiltration and influence of Western media have built an unnatural image of the regime camouflaging the oppression. As a result, journalists and academics have described Iran’s Khomeinist regime as “reasonable, stable, and with whom democracies can conduct business.” The young men and women on the streets of Tehran have come very close to destroying this expensive public-relations image. Hence, the IRGC could be tasked to strike at targets overseas and engage in terror regionally as a means of deflecting attention from the “Tha’r Allah” operations inside the so-called “republic.” The international community in general, Western democracies in particular must be very attentive to the possibility of Pasdaran-guided, ordered and/or inspired terror operations worldwide as the crisis inside Iran persists. Therefore, it is crucial that the West in general and the United States in particular work on backing the democratic uprising in Iran now before the Pasdaran takes them by surprise. This is not an issue of luxurious choice, it is a matter of national security.
SMITH: What is the West failing to understand, that we must get our heads around regarding the IRGC—its subsidiaries like Hizballah—and the “Tha’r Allah” forces?
PHARES: As of the fall of 2006, early 2007, the pro-Iranian-regime lobby in the United States—and some other Western countries—has succeeded in imposing a new equation regarding Iran. Whether it is because of propositions of oil advantages or false promises of help in Iraq and Afghanistan, it is a fact that the Iran policy in the United States has shifted during the last two years of the Bush Administration and throughout the current Obama administration from considering the Iranian regime as a strategic foe supporting terrorism to just a nuisance with which one might cut a deal. U.S. policy has reached a summit of contradictions as its intelligence and legal components consider the Pasdaran and Quds force, as well as Hizballah, as terrorists; yet our political decision-makers look at the Iran of Khamenei as a potential partner in regional political business. The West—particularly the U.S. and the UK—knows all too well that the IRGC and Hizballah are strategic threats but a political decision was made to disregard this reality hoping that it would—or could—end when the “engagement path” would bare fruit. This is a dangerous game, a bet that is irrational, which may cost democracies greater losses and the region’s civil societies longer oppression. The Tehran uprising should be viewed as an event of destiny, and it should open Western eyes. Let’s see if Washington and London figure it out and change course or stubbornly continue toward the precipice.
**Thomas Smith Jr. – a former U.S. Marine rifle-squad leader and counterterrorism instructor – is a journalist, author, and military analyst whose work has appeared in the New York Post, USA TODAY, U.S. News & World Report, BusinessWeek, CBS News, and many others. Smith writes about military/defense issues and has covered conflict in the Balkans, on the West Bank, in Iraq and Lebanon. Visit him online at uswriter.com.
*Thomas can be reached at: letters@canadafreepress.com
W. Thomas Smith Jr.
“a military expert” — USA TODAY

Analysis: Syria's goose lays a golden egg

By JONATHAN SPYER
Jerusalem Post 28/06/09
Washington's decision to return its ambassador to Syria is the latest stage in the present administration's policy of engagement with Damascus. It relates most importantly to the US desire to secure Syrian cooperation in the build-up to the departure of American combat troops from urban areas in Iraq. The decision is related to the broader American ambition of drawing Damascus away from Iran. Hopes for a revival of talks between Israel and Syria, and the desire to enlist Syria in the ongoing effort to bring about a rapprochement between the Palestinian Fatah movement and the Damascus-domiciled Hamas may also have played a role.
Regarding Iraq, the US is aware that Sunni insurgents will have an interest in ratcheting up the level of violence as the US prepares to draw down its combat forces - to give the impression that it is they who are bringing about the American redeployment. Syria has served as a key ally of the Sunni insurgency since its beginnings. For a period, the route between Damascus airport and the Syrian-Iraqi border was a favorite one for Sunni jihadis seeking to enter Iraq to take part in the insurgency.
In recent months, US officials have reported an improvement in Syrian control on the border, and a reduction in the number of insurgents crossing over. In the familiar Syrian fashion, Damascus's promotion of violence against Americans, and its subsequent willingness to partially reduce this promotion, is used as a tool to reap diplomatic rewards.
Regarding the Palestinian angle: ongoing Palestinian unity talks in Cairo have so far proved fruitless. Despite its focus on a revived Israeli-Palestinian peace process, the administration is aware that for as long as an openly rejectionist Hamas entity continues to rule over 40 percent of the Palestinian population, hopes for a meaningful negotiating process belong largely to the realm of fantasy.
There is therefore a real determination, shared by Egypt and the Palestinian Authority, to make a success of the unity effort. Hamas's leadership is based in Damascus, so efforts to bring Syria closer to Washington may also be intended to enlist Syrian support in pressuring Hamas towards greater flexibility.
The revival of Israeli-Syrian talks is likely to feature on the administration's agenda at some stage in the coming period. The presence of a US representative in Damascus would facilitate US mediation.
The biggest prize, however - a Syrian strategic reorientation away from alliance with Iran - is likely to continue to prove elusive.
An angry, more openly militant Iranian regime is likely to emerge in the coming weeks from the current unrest. It will be hated by a large section of its people. But this will not harm either its desire or its ability to support radical forces in the region.
For the Syrians, the maintenance of alliances with various Islamist and radical regional elements forms a key element of national strategy. It is one which continues to pay dividends. The past months have shown that the Syrians may repair relations with the West at little cost to themselves, while maintaining this stance. One does not, as the saying goes, kill the goose that lays the golden egg. The Syrian "goose" combines alliance with Iran and support for regional instability with occasional gestures of cooperation to the West. It has just delivered the "golden egg" of a new US ambassador in Damascus in return for no concessions on issues of core importance to the Assad regime.
**Jonathan Spyer is a senior researcher at the Global Research in International Affairs Center, IDC, Herzliya.

Will Obama bow to Syria, too?
Posted: June 29, 2009
By Pamela Geller
© 2009
Barack Obama is going full throttle with his wrong-headed policy of appeasement and capitulation: The Obama administration announced Wednesday that it was sending an American ambassador back to Syria, after a four-year gap. White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said, "This strongly reflects the administration's recognition of the role Syria plays, and the hope of the role that the Syrian government can play constructively to promote peace and stability in the region."
CNN reported that Syria's ambassador to the United States, Imad Moustapha, said essentially the same thing – that "the decision reflects the genuine desire by the United States to reverse Bush administration policy and engage Syria, which he said would be good for both nations and for the region."
What's wrong with this? For one thing, Syria is on the U.S. State Department's "State Sponsors of Terrorism" list. It has been on that list since December 29, 1979, when the list was created. What has changed? The United States has not had an ambassador in Damascus since February 2005, when the Bush administration recalled its ambassador and expressed its "profound outrage" over the assassination of the Prime Minister Rafik Hariri of Lebanon, a foe of Syrian hegemony over that country.
Of course President Bush withdrew the American representative – because Syria was assassinating the leaders of Lebanon, was and is supporting Hamas and Hezbollah, and was meddling in Iraq and Lebanon. Again, what has changed? Only our president
Obama's latest handover of Lebanon to Syria has generated outrage and frustration among reformers and freedom lovers in the Middle East. And that's understandable: When John Bolton was at the United Nations, we held Syrians accountable for their assassinations of pro-Lebanon political figures and anti-Syrian cabinet ministers and journalists. It was a U.N. investigation in 2006 that found links between Syrian President Bashar Assad and company and the assassinations of anti-Syrian politicians and journalists in Lebanon, including Hariri, Bashir Gemayal and others. Syria fully intends to marginalize and neutralize the small Christian population of Lebanon and install Islamic rule, and Hezbollah is complicit in this effort. Hezbollah is not Lebanese – it is an Iranian foreign legion. It's ironic that the loser in Iran's disputed presidential election, former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, was a founder of Hezbollah. He is not at all the champion of freedom that some in the West like to imagine that he is.
Syria also remains a lethal threat to the rest of the world. Remember that it was a nuclear bomb making factory in Syria that Israel took out on September 6, 2007 – and the North Koreans provided that factory. Meanwhile, the world continues to turn a blind eye to the fact that, for the Islamic world, the mere existence of Israel is enough to sanction countless murders of Jews and calls for the "removal of Israel."
Nor is that likely to change. The world is spinning out of control since the U.S. switched sides (against itself, I might add) and elected a jihad president – the world's policeman is off duty. Now that Obama has given the Islamic supremacists in Damascus and Tehran all but a free pass, the barbarians are killing without fear of reprisal. The Islamonazis can kill anyone they want, murder with utter abandon, and the world yawns – or speaks about some ambiguous humiliation to which the jihadists are legitimately responding.
This, of course, is not new. This has for quite some time been Democratic Party policy: to side with America's enemies. After House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit with Assad (where clearly a deal with the devil was made), I interviewed the courageous Egyptian blogger who calls himself "Egyptian Sandmonkey." He said: "I was in Turkey a couple of weeks ago and I met a couple of Syrian activists. They told me one thing that was really funny about the Pelosi visit. After Pelosi came to Syria two things happened. People on Syrian TV were saying, 'We forced the Americans to knock on the Damascus gate!'" Even worse, he noted that "the day after Pelosi's visits there were immediate arrests of Syrian activists. That was the fruit she yielded. 'Oh, the Americans came over and they said they have a different foreign policy and they're more interested in placating Bashar's ego.' And he went out and got [arrested] everyone he wanted because he knew he had an ally in Washington that wouldn't pressure him as much."
That was Pelosi. And now Syria has an even greater ally in Washington.
*Pamela Geller is the editor and publisher of the Atlas Shrugs website and former associate publisher of the New York Observer. Her op-eds have appeared in The Washington Times, The American Thinker, Israel National News and other publications.

What If Obama Did Want to Help Iran's Democrats?
By GABRIEL SCHOENFELD

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124623147117266147.html
Thus far, debate over American policy toward Iran has revolved around President Barack Obama's various responses. When Iran's electoral crisis first erupted, he downplayed its significance, calling the two rival candidates, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Mir Hossein Mousavi, "tweedledum and tweedledee." A week later, he sharply condemned the Islamic regime, describing himself as "appalled and outraged" by the government's actions.
But are presidential pronouncements -- however pusillanimous or intrepid -- the limit of American power?
The ayatollahs' nuclear ambitions make Iran one the most critical countries for the future of U.S. foreign policy. Beyond the immediate problem of nuclear proliferation, there is the broader issue of Iranian influence spreading via proxy forces in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza. And even beyond that, the Iranian Revolution of 1979 is the original wellspring of the Islamic fundamentalism that has swept the world over the past three decades.
In a better world, toppling this vicious regime and altering the tide of history would be a primary objective of U.S. foreign policy. Yet even if President Obama miraculously came to that conclusion, how could he realize such an objective? This is a useful question to ask because it reveals how much the United States has disarmed itself in the vital realm of intelligence.
In the late 1940s through the late 1950s, the U.S. faced similar problems in various locales around the world. One of them was Italy, where there was a very real danger that the highly organized Italian Communist Party -- benefiting from huge covert subsidies from the Kremlin -- would come to power via the ballot box. Soviet funds had enabled that party to build a dense network of paid organizers that operated in every region and created front groups in every sector of society, from farmers to veterans to students.
The prospect of Italy becoming the first country in Europe to fall to Communism via subversion rather than direct force of Soviet arms was not, at the height of the Cold War, something the U.S. could abide. So the CIA was instructed, first by Harry Truman and then by Dwight Eisenhower, to stop it. It was the challenge presented by Italy's vulnerability in its 1948 election that prompted the fledgling spy agency to create its Office of Policy Coordination. The banal-sounding name was a cover for what was an aggressive tool of covert political propaganda and paramilitary operations.
Over the course of the 1950s, the CIA secretly funneled money to forces in Italy's political center. This enabled democratically oriented parties to match the Italian Communist Party activist for activist. When revealed years later, the policy was subjected to scathing criticism. But it had worked. Fragile Italy remained democratic in the 1950s and is a stable democracy today.
Harsh criticism of such operations -- beginning in the 1970s when all the CIA's secrets spilled out -- is what prompted the U.S. to dismantle its capabilities in covert political action. Interfering in the internal affairs of other countries, legions of agency critics said, was both immoral and illegal.
As a matter of law, the critics are right. Such covert action is indeed illegal. But legality is beside the point. Espionage is by definition illegal and yet all countries engage in it. This is what the Soviet Union did in Italy, and it is what Iran, by organizing terrorist structures in the Middle East, Europe and elsewhere, has been doing intensively for 30 years.
As for the moral issues involved in covert operations, they are the standard ones of balancing means and ends. Self-defense is the basic right of every state; open warfare is certainly permitted to uphold it. Covert warfare, so long as it is similarly defensive, is no different. Yet throughout our history, a higher moralism has periodically come along and led us to shun intelligence operations, as when Herbert Hoover's Secretary of State Henry L. Stimson famously declared that "gentlemen do not read other gentlemen's mail." Stimson then shuttered his department's code-breaking operation just as terrible storms were beginning to gather across both the Atlantic and the Pacific.
Today, as a breaking point in the Islamic Republic appears to recede from view as a result of brutal violence, the U.S. appears utterly powerless to influence the course of events. Yet how much better off both Iran and the world would be if the CIA, operating covertly through local friendly forces, could have helped, say, to spark a general strike to topple the ruthless regime of the ayatollahs.
The great irony in all this is that even as the U.S. seeks to claim the moral high ground by not "meddling" -- to use Mr. Obama's term -- we and our allies are getting blamed all the same. "There are riots and attacks in the streets that are orchestrated from the outside in a bid to destabilize the country's Islamic regime," says Sheikh Naim Qassem, a ranking figure of Hezbollah, Iran's obedient instrument in Lebanon.
We are thus paying the price of running covert operations even as we gain absolutely none of the benefits. Rebuilding our capacity in this area cannot be accomplished overnight. Meanwhile, as Iran's nuclear ambitions continue unabated, we may in the end have to pay a high price in treasure and blood for having declined to pay the relatively low cost of mounting secret warfare.
Mr. Schoenfeld, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C. and a resident scholar at the Witherspoon Institute in Princeton, N.J., is the author of "Necessary Secrets: National Security, the Media, and the Rule of Law" to be published by W.W. Norton in 2010.

 


Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 16:13-19. When Jesus went into the region of Caesarea Philippi he asked his disciples, "Who do people say that the Son of Man is?" They replied, "Some say John the Baptist, others Elijah, still others Jeremiah or one of the prophets." He said to them, "But who do you say that I am?" Simon Peter said in reply, "You are the Messiah, the Son of the living God." Jesus said to him in reply, "Blessed are you, Simon son of Jonah. For flesh and blood has not revealed this to you, but my heavenly Father. And so I say to you, you are Peter, and upon this rock I will build my church, and the gates of the netherworld shall not prevail against it. I will give you the keys to the kingdom of heaven. Whatever you bind on earth shall be bound in heaven; and whatever you loose on earth shall be loosed in heaven."