LCCC
ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
June 06/09
Bible Reading of the day.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ
according to Saint Mark 12:35-37. As Jesus was teaching in the temple area he
said, "How do the scribes claim that the Messiah is the son of David? David
himself, inspired by the holy Spirit, said: 'The Lord said to my lord, "Sit at
my right hand until I place your enemies under your feet."' David himself calls
him 'lord'; so how is he his son?" (The) great crowd heard this with delight.
Free Opinions, Releases, letters & Special
Reports.
What’s
driving voters
For Lebanon’s Christians, political posture matters. By:
Jean-Pierre Katrib, NOW Lebanon ,
June 5, 2009
Christian voters hold the key to power in Lebanon-GulfNews
05/06/09
Christians could be kingmakers-The
National
05/06/09
Lebanon will need a coalition government-By
Paul Salem 05/06/09
John Kerry, a phone call, and a
US-Syrian mini-breakthrough-By
David Ignatius 05/06/09
ANALYSIS-US weighs Lebanon aid if Hezbollah,
allies win vote. By: Arshad Mohammed. Reuters
05/06/09
Showdown in Lebanon. By AMIR TAHERI
Wall Street Journal
05/06/09
Battle for the vote.By: Lucy Fielder:
Al-Ahram Weekly
05/06/09
Will Syria intervene?By: Bassel
Ouda. Al-Ahram Weekly 05/06/09
Obama's new era in international
diplomacy-The
Daily Star 05/06/09
Latest News Reports From
Miscellaneous Sources for June
05/09
U.S. Official: Polls to
Decide Between Independence and Extremism-Naharnet
Obama for Supporting Religious Diversity of Lebanon's Maronites-Naharnet
Bkirki: We Look Forward for
Reform with Suleiman After Elections-Naharnet
Aoun and Hezbollah,
unlikely allies/france24.com
Edde: Hizbullah Will Rule Lebanon
and Aoun Will Be its Spokesman-Naharnet
Army Uncovers 25 Spy Cells and 6
Terrorist Networks-Naharnet
Obama calls for 'new beginning' in ties between US and Muslims-Daily
Star
Suleiman Urges Constitutional Council to be Neutral-Naharnet
Akhbar : Soueid says defeating Hezbollah-Aoun coalition a must-iloubnan.info
Army
Uncovers 25 Spy Cells and 6 Terrorist Networks-Naharnet
Thousands of Lebanese expats arrive
to cast their votes-Daily
Star
U.S.
Official: Polls to Decide Between Independence and Extremism-Naharnet
Hizbullah: Obama Speech
Signals No Real Change in U.S. Policy-Naharnet
19,000 Lebanese Returned
to Lebanon in Past Two Days-Naharnet
Iran, France Agree to
Spare Lebanon Any Shock-Naharnet
Authorities release UNIFIL workers
arrested on suspicion of espionage-Daily
Star
Fierce battle expected over Batroun's two seats-Daily
Star
Hariri files complaint over use of his photo in Zahle-Daily
Star
Flaws in electoral law could twist
results of upcoming parliamentary polls-Daily
Star
Mudslinging going full swing ahead
of Sunday's vote.
(AFP)
Election fever in short supply in Deir al-Ahmar-Daily
Star
Bassil warns cellular grid will see
heavy pressure during polls-Daily Star
Price dumping poses key challenge
to Lebanese advertising industry-Daily
Star
Bekaa mayer, two others arrested
for trafficking newborn babies-Daily
Star
Baroud to announce measures aimed
at thwarting vote fraud-Daily
Star
New youth website pokes fun at
politicians' antics-Daily
Star
AUB announces sale of campus
property to IC-Daily
Star
Obama for
Supporting Religious Diversity of Lebanon's Maronites
Naharnet/U.S. President Barack Obama said Thursday that the religious diversity
of Lebanon's Maronites and Egyptian Copts must be upheld. "The richness of
religious diversity must be upheld whether it is for Maronites in Lebanon or the
Copts in Egypt," Obama said in a speech at Cairo University. "Among some Muslims
there is a disturbing tendency to measure one's own faith by the rejection of
somebody else's faith," he said. "The divisions between Sunnis and Shiites have
led to tragic violence, particularly in Iraq," Obama said. "Freedom of religions
is central to the ability of people to live together." He also promised that the
United States would encourage more educational exchanges with the Muslim world
and invest in technological development. The president said trade can "bring new
wealth and opportunities, but also huge disruptions and changing communities."
"In all nations -- including my own -- this change can bring fear ... but I also
know that human progress cannot be denied." Yet "no development strategy can be
based only upon what comes out of the ground (a reference to oil), nor can it be
sustained while young people are out of work."The president said "education and
innovation will be the currency of the 21st century." Obama also addressed the
issue of women's rights. "A woman who is denied education is denied equality,"
he said. Beirut, 04 Jun 09, 14:43
Bkirki: We Look Forward for Reform
with Suleiman After Elections
Naharnet/The Council of Maronite Bishops said it looked forward for reform with
President Michel Suleiman following Sunday's parliamentary elections.
"We look forward to begin the process of reform with President Michel Suleiman
following the parliamentary elections starting with reactivating constitutional
institutions that alone could ensure political, security and economic
stability," the bishops said after their yearly conclave under Patriarch
Nasrallah Sfeir. They called for a wide decentralized government in order to
"build national unity and…improve sustainability," said Monsignor Youssef Tawq,
who read the concluding statement. The bishops urged the state to implement
economic and tax reforms, support industrial and agricultural production and
tourism. The statement also called on the state to provide job opportunities for
youth and urge them to remain in the country. The bishops "urged all Lebanese to
preserve their unified nation," Tawq said, adding that they should resort to
dialogue to settle all differences. The bishops reiterated their stance on the
elections, saying they should be held transparently. They also called on the
Lebanese to put their nation's interest first in order to secure a better future
for their children. Beirut, 05 Jun 09, 14:53
Aoun and
Hezbollah, unlikely allies
Friday 05 June 2009 /france24.com
To secure a majority of seats in the upcoming parliamentary elections, the
pro-Syrian Shiite party Hezbollah is counting on votes for its newfound and
unlikely ally: Christian general Michel Aoun. But can such an alliance stick?
Special Report Lebanon's high stakes election
http://www.france24.com/en/20090605-aoun-hezbollah-unlikely-allies-lebanese-elections-syria
The alliance between the Shiite Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM)
led by Christian general Michel Aoun may seem unlikely, but both parties are
betting on their recent union to reverse the current anti-Syrian majority. And
one group’s success now depends squarely on the other’s.
Thanks to Lebanon’s electoral district mapping, Hassan Nasrallah’s party is
certain to swipe up the clear majority of Shiite votes in its various
strongholds: Bekaa, southern Lebanon and Beirut’s south suburbs. But to win the
majority of the 128 seats in Parliament, it absolutely needs the FPM to win in
the hotly disputed Christian districts.
The alliance between these two, apparently very different, parties has left many
observers baffled. Before General Aoun’s return from exile in 2005, such a union
would have been unimaginable. The two parties share the same antagonism to the
current government, but otherwise, they share nothing in common.
Indeed, Iran-backed Hezbollah has always been Syria’s local ally in Lebanon.
Teheran supplies the party with arms and funds via its northern neighbour.
Michel Aoun, on the other hand, built his reputation as Lebanon’s first patriot
on his vehemently anti-Syrian stance. However surprising, the alliance became a
reality after Aoun and Nasrallah’s 2006 meeting, and this will be its first
electoral test. But how will supporters from both parties react to such a
radical change?
A test for General Aoun
By joining the pro-Syrian camp, General Aoun risks isolating himself from his
early supporters, many of whom found his visit to Syria in 2008 a difficult pill
to swallow. In the 2005 parliamentary elections, general Aoun won a comfortable
majority of the Christian vote. Today, polls show his margin is considerably
smaller. Even if he does win, his votes would only grant the new government a
slim majority. The FPM’s Christian rivals, such as Samir Gagea’s Lebanese Forces
(Hezbollah’s arch-enemy) are counting on the support of undecided or apolitical
Christians who may be disappointed by Aoun’s unlikely alliance, as well as their
own electorate base in order to win the majority of seats. Hezbollah is accused
of sparking the 2006 war with Israel and conducting a violent raid on the Sunni
neighbourhoods of Beirut in May 2008. These two events, resented by many
Lebanese, have left some wondering whether Hezbollah isn’t pursuing its own
agenda, rather than that of the state.
Thousands of Lebanese expats arrive to cast their
votes
By Therese Sfeir /Daily Star staff
Friday, June 05, 2009
BEIRUT: Over 19,000 Lebanese arrived in Beirut over the past two days to
participate in Sunday's polls, the national news agency reported on Thursday.
The agency added that airport traffic was expected to increase during the few
remaining days until the elections. The NNA said that some of the arrivals
expressed hope that the elections would be held in a climate of "transparency,
democracy and security." They added that their right to vote and national duty
encouraged them to come to Lebanon to take part in the elections.
Others said "their political affiliations did not influence their personal
beliefs. They want to choose the best among the candidates," according to the
NNA.
Lebanese expatriates arrived from the Gulf, the United States, Canada, Europe
and Australia among other countries.
Meanwhile, President Michel Sleiman reiterated Thursday his call on state
institutions to remain neutral during the parliamentary elections.
Sleiman urged civil servants not to use their posts to support a certain party
or candidate.
"What is important after the elections is the participation of all parties in
reforms which will establish the basis for a modern state," he added.
Future Movement leader MP Saad Hariri reiterated that the polls were decisive
and urged voters to participate massively in the electoral process.
Addressing a delegation of Future Movement supporters in the district of
Baalbek-Hermel, Hariri said: "Everyone should know that despite all challenges
and difficulties we faced, we protected the country and maintained civil peace
and coexistence," and added: "We believe that Lebanon is a country for all the
Lebanese and there's no difference between a Lebanese citizen and another."
Also on Thursday, Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader MP Michel Aoun said
reforms could not be implemented in the absence of national unity.
In an electoral rally held by the FPM in the Chouf Thursday, Aoun said: "We need
national unity because without it, there is no room for reforms."
He added that reconciliation in the Chouf was limited to handshakes, and to a
"superficial alliance between those who killed and displaced people."
In a massive rally held by the Future Movement in Sidon, Education Minister
Bahia Hariri said the coastal city would remain a place for coexistence.
For his part, Prime Minister Fouad Siniora said: "We are against the rule of the
jungle, the obstruction of the institutions and the militia mentality. Our
project is to enforce the ties between the Palestinian people and the Lebanese
people and to support their cause."The rally was attended by Saad Hariri.
A major electoral rally was also held by the March 14 Forces' candidates in
Tripoli.
Economy Minister Mohammad Safadi said on the occasion that "every vote will
count in the elections."
Speaker Nabih Berri met Thursday with former US President Jimmy Carter, who is
heading a delegation of election observers from the Carter Center.
The meeting lasted around 75 minutes, after which Carter refused to comment.
Carter also met on Thursday with Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) leader MP
Walid Jumblatt at the latter's residence in Clemenceau.
In remarks to reporters following the meeting, Carter said: "We will monitor the
electoral process in the different districts without exceptions."
Asked whether the delegation would monitor the elections in south Lebanon and
Beirut's southern suburbs, he said: "I don't believe there's a problem with
that."
Meanwhile, the PSP said all candidates who were running outside Jumblatt's
electoral ticket in the Chouf "are against the general orientation of the March
14 Forces ... even if they claimed to be from the alliance."
"Accordingly, the PSP urges all its members and supporters to commit to voting
for the complete Chouf list in order to achieve the victory of the March 14
Forces and hamper projects that are represented by other lists and single
candidates," said a statement issued by the PSP on Thursday.
Also Thursday, candidate Emile Nawfal withdrew from the electoral race in Jbeil,
in support of the list of independents and March 14 Forces.
France and Iran have reportedly stressed the need to ensure continuation of
Lebanese national dialogue and safeguard the progress made in the Doha Accord.
As-Safir newspaper said on Thursday said the "Lebanese issue" was tackled during
talks in Elysee between Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki and French
officials, particularly French President Nicolas Sarkozy.
Elysee sources quoted by the daily on Thursday said Sarkozy met Mottaki upon an
Iranian request to deliver a letter from the Iranian leadership that could form
the starting point for the re-launch of dialogue with Tehran over the pending
nuclear enrichment during presidential elections.
Meanwhile, As-Safir newspaper also said Thursday that Hizbullah informed Berri
and Hariri of its commitment to the 2008 Doha accord regarding the Beirut II
district.
According to the Doha accord, the opposition receives two seats in that
district, one Shiite and another Armenian, while the majority gets one Sunni and
one Armenian seat.
The daily added that Hizbullah had informed Hariri the opposition would vote
only for Future Movement Sunni candidate Nohad Mashnouq and for Amal Movement
Shiite candidate Hani Qobeissi, after Hizbullah's candidate MP Amin Sherri
withdrew from the race.
In other developments, Lebanese Forces (LF) leader Samir Geagea urged March 14
and LF supporters to participate massively in Sunday's parliamentary elections.
Following a meeting Thursday with the March 14 Forces' list in Akkar, Geagea
said the electoral battle in that area "is a battle to confirm its identity and
political affiliation with the March 14 Forces." - With additional reporting by
Mohammed Zaatari
Edde: Hizbullah Will Rule Lebanon and Aoun Will Be its Spokesman
Naharnet/National Bloc Party leader Carlos Edde slammed Free Patriotic Movement
chief Michel Aoun on Friday and said Hizbullah deputy leader Sheikh Naim
Qassem’s latest speech confirms that Lebanon will be transformed into an Iranian
base. Qassem’s speech, in which he said Hizbullah will continue to rearm in
defiance of U.N. Security Council resolutions, stressed “that he will transform
Lebanon into a military base for the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Edde said in a
statement. He told his partisans that the elections will be the decisive choice
between war and peace and between economic crisis and development and freedoms.
Edde also urged Kesrouan citizens not to be seduced by Aoun’s slogans. He said
Hizbullah would rule Lebanon if it wins the elections and the FPM leader would
be its spokesman.
U.S. Official: Polls to Decide Between Independence and
Extremism
Naharnet/A high-level U.S. official told pan-Arab daily al-Hayat that Lebanon's
parliamentary elections would either put Lebanon on the path of independence or
extremism. Sunday's polls would either put the country on the path of
"completing independence and sovereignty" away from foreign meddling or the path
of "the forces of violence and extremism to reach political objectives," the
source said in remarks published Friday. The official reiterated that Washington
will await formation of the upcoming government and its policy statement to
assess its policy and aid to Lebanon. He also said that the Obama administration
is hoping that the Lebanese would make progress and protect "the principles of
independence, sovereignty and freedom that they fought for." Washington "will
continue to provide support to such principles after the elections," the
official told al-Hayat. Asked about Hizbullah's criticism of visits by U.S.
officials to Lebanon, particularly Vice-President Joseph Biden and Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton, the official said: "The visits and assistance to the army
reflect our support for constitutional institutions and the Lebanese
government." "If there are some sides who are bothered by this, that's because
they know that the presence of a strong central government and institutions
would prevent them from moving freely and as a militia," the U.S. official
added. He told his interviewer that supporting the army and security forces is
crucial to guarantee the independence of Lebanon, fight terrorism and implement
U.N. Security Council resolution 1701. On the Syrian role in Lebanon, the
official said: "It is important for Syria to continue with what it started in
terms of diplomatic relations with Lebanon." He added that Damascus should stop
interfering in Lebanese internal affairs and demarcate the common border.
Beirut, 05 Jun 09, 08:41
Hizbullah: Obama Speech Signals
No Real Change in U.S. Policy
Naharnet/U.S. President Barack Obama's landmark speech to Muslims on Thursday
signals no real shift in U.S. policy in the Arab world despite its conciliatory
tone, a Hizbullah official said. "What we heard is a speech that reveals no real
change to the position of U.S. policy in the region," Hassan Fadlallah, an MP
from the militant Shiite group, told Agence France Presse (AFP). "The Islamic
and Arab world does not need lectures, but real acts starting with a radical
change toward the Palestinian cause," he said. "The problem of Arabs and Muslims
lies with Washington's support for Israeli aggression in the region, especially
on the people of Lebanon and Palestine." Fadlallah dismissed Obama's speech as
empty words that would not translate to concrete action. "We do not sense any
real change regardless of the language of the speech because violence in the
region is practiced first and foremost by Israel and by the U.S. armies of
occupation, and not by the people who resist," he said. Hezbollah, which fought
a devastating 34-day war with Israel in 2006 and is considered a terrorist
organization by Washington, heads an alliance seeking to oust a Western-backed
coalition in a general election in Lebanon on Sunday.(AFP) Beirut, 04 Jun 09,
21:03
What’s
driving voters
For Lebanon’s Christians, political posture matters
Jean-Pierre Katrib, Special to NOW Lebanon , June 5, 2009
Government employees line up to vote early on June 4. The rest of the Lebanese
head to the polls on Sunday, June 7 (AFP/Joseph Barrak)
When Lebanese cast their ballots on Sunday, four principle factors will motive
their decision: The electoral platform, through which voters acquaint themselves
with the policies of the candidate, party or bloc; the candidate’s background,
meaning his academic and professional credentials, charisma and socio-political
standing; personal and local considerations, primarily based on bitterness from
past practices; and finally, and, perhaps, most importantly, the general
political posture of the candidate or his party/bloc on the domestic and foreign
levels alike.
While the introduction of electoral platforms in the 2009 elections was indeed a
step in the right direction — notwithstanding the cosmetic nature of some
platforms — platforms per se will not sway voters. This is particularly true
given that the majority of platforms resemble each other, advocating similar
policies like administrative decentralization, improving infrastructure,
privatization, etc. Likewise, in Christian constituencies at least, the
candidate’s family and background will not play an outsized role. In fact, in
some instances, especially when the personal resentments and rural-shaped
political mentalities of some voters is taken into account, it may even turn
against them.
This leaves of us with the candidates’ political postures regarding domestic and
foreign dynamics as the critical factor determining voting patterns. And nowhere
is this more visible than in predominantly Christian districts — the
battlegrounds that will decide Lebanon’s next parliamentary majority.
Seen from a national perspective, this pattern centers on whether the Lebanese
want to de facto sideline their country from regional crises or seek to attach
it to a regional rejectionist axis. It also centers on whether the Lebanese want
to abide by democratic means and respect the peaceful rotation of power, or if
they would instead prefer to undermine it through extra-democratic measures
aimed against the role and functioning of state institutions. The July War of
2006 and the Hezbollah-led armed takeover of West Beirut and the Chouf in 2008
serve as potent reminders on this track. While fighting corruption and advancing
economic and socio-political reforms is a laudable and long overdue objective,
at present, the priority should be directed at bolstering and consolidating the
political and security institutions of the state. Simply put, curbing corruption
and introducing reform will be nothing but obsolete slogans if institutions
continue to be undermined. These imperatives are best served from within — not
outside — a capable, sovereign state.
From a Lebanese Christian perspective, this issue of voting patterns is more
acute. Only once before did a sizable number of Christians engage in regional
adventurism that trespassed Lebanese territory, and when they did, during the
short-lived marriage of convenience with the Israelis during some phases of the
1975-1990 Lebanese civil war, it was to defend Lebanon’s independence and assure
their community’s survival and continuity. But those were stateless times.
Today, after the Lebanese polity began to slowly reemerge after the subsequent
withdrawal of the Israelis and Syrians in 2000 and 2005 respectively, such
regional adventurism is no longer valid. Rather than a loose memorandum of
understanding protecting some at the expense of others, a more viable guarantee
for all Lebanese would be a constitutionally advanced federal formula offering a
middle ground between communal disenchantment and a breakaway autonomy.
More worrisome is that for the first time since the formation of modern Lebanon
in 1920, a sizable portion of Lebanese Christians are espousing anti-Western
rhetoric and tilting toward an unnatural pact with Syria and Iran, all in the
name of an “alliance of minorities.” Historically, the vast majority of Lebanese
Christians were always neutral toward the West, if not pro-Western, even at
times when the West betrayed them or acted against their interest. The reason
why has to do with a common set of values shared between the Christians of
Lebanon and the West, values that are an anathema to the oppressive regimes of
Syria and Iran.
In this regard, June 7 will be a referendum on where the Lebanese stand with
respect to unilateral decisions of war and peace, disruption of legislative and
executive institutions and the excessive use of force against citizens, the
press and media. Ultimately, June 7 will also be a referendum on whether the
Christians of Lebanon are still loyal to their historical constants of
independence, freedom and pluralism. Or whether, as British historian Sir Steven
Runciman put it while describing the psychological state of the Christians
before the fall of Constantinople in 1453, “They lost the will to be free.”
**Jean-Pierre Katrib is a political analyst and human rights activist based in
Beirut.
ANALYSIS-US weighs Lebanon aid if Hezbollah, allies win vote
Fri Jun 5, 2009 |
Featured Broker sponsored link
* Total cut-off in military aide seen as unlikely
* U.S. lawmakers may push for reduction in assistance
* Both sides may have reason to avoid confrontation
By Arshad Mohammed
WASHINGTON, June 5 (Reuters) - Chances are low that the United States would
totally cut off military funding to Lebanon if Hezbollah and its allies win
Sunday's election because both sides will want to avoid a confrontation,
analysts said.
But a victory by the militant Shi'ite group, viewed as a "terrorist
organization" by Washington, and its allies could lead to a reduction in what
has been burgeoning U.S. assistance to the Lebanese armed forces in recent
years.
Pollsters expect the "March 8" alliance that includes Iranian- and Syrian-backed
Hezbollah to gain a slight edge in the election and to erase the governing
Western-backed, anti-Syrian "March 14" coalition's slender majority.
That said, with vote-buying rampant and many expatriates returning to cast
ballots, the parliamentary election may be too close to call and the outcome
could be a national unity government, albeit one in which Hezbollah has a
stronger hand.
As a result, analysts saw little chance of a major swing in Lebanese government
policy, or of Hezbollah forcing through an agenda unpalatable to Washington.
"The election's likely muted outcome militates against tectonic change in
Lebanon," Mona Yacoubian of the United States Institute for Peace wrote this
week. "Neither side will be able to impose a highly partisan agenda."
The United States has given the Lebanese armed forces more than $500 million
since the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, seeking
to build up an institution eroded by decades of sectarian strife and foreign
influence.
The assassination triggered an international outcry that led neighboring Syria
to end its 29-year military presence in Lebanon and gave rise to the "March 14"
anti-Syrian, pro-Western alliance that now holds a parliamentary majority.
Given Washington's ban on funding groups that it deems "terrorist," a victory by
Hezbollah would present the Obama administration with a judgment call on whether
any government Hezbollah helped to form could keep getting U.S. funds.
NEGATIVE REFLEXES
Speaking in Beirut on May 22, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden said "we will
evaluate the shape of our assistance programs based on the composition of the
new government and the policies it advocates."
Some analysts suggested a cut-off was not in either side's interest given U.S.
overtures to Hezbollah's two main patrons, Syria and Iran, and the likely
reluctance of Hezbollah and its allies to totally isolate themselves from the
West.
"I cannot imagine the United States turning its back on Lebanon," said Edward
Walker, a former U.S. ambassador to Egypt and Israel, saying Hezbollah would
probably not force the issue by demanding key security posts in the Cabinet.
"Generally speaking, we have found a way to work around the terrorist-designated
organizations. I am quite sure that we can find a way to do it. And I suspect
that Hezbollah would find a way to cooperate in that," Walker added.
"Hezbollah and Washington have an interest in not having a nuclear exchange over
this," said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at Washington's
Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.
"Hezbollah actually has an interest in being influential but not winning,
because if they force the issue, they could find themselves deeply isolated from
the West," he added.
Sentiment in the U.S. Congress, however, may differ.
"The Obama administration will ... be loathe, I think, to cut off funding ...
but Congress may pose a bigger problem and will look to scale back foreign
assistance," said David Schenker of the Washington Institute for Near East
Policy.
If the March 8 alliance wins, "we'll have to reassess the direction of our
policy," said a congressional aide who spoke on condition that he not be named,
adding that "it's pretty likely that (U.S. funding) would be assessed downward."
"The reflex here will be very negative" he added.
The importance of the elections to Washington is shown by the fact that Biden
and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton both visited Beirut in the last six
weeks, a remarkable demonstration of U.S. interest.
"The stakes are quite high," said a senior U.S. official who spoke on condition
that he not be named.
"Is Lebanon going to continue on the path of consolidating its independence and
sovereignty and economic prosperity, or is it going to take a different road?"
he added.
"These elections are being watched closely throughout the region as evidence as
to whether forces aligned with Iran and Syria are on the upswing, or whether the
forces aligned with pragmatism and moderation ... will gain strength," he said.
Showdown in Lebanon
It's Iran vs. the West as voters go to the polls this weekend
By AMIR TAHERI
JUNE 5, 2009
The Wall Street Journal
While economies across the globe are in meltdown mode, the banks in Lebanon
appear flush, offering hefty interest rates on savings. The Lebanese have had a
knack for business and banking since Phoenician times, when they traded with
every nation around the Mediterranean. But one likely reason for the country's
current economic health is the vast amounts of money pouring in to influence the
general election scheduled for June 7.
No one knows for sure how much is involved. Observers of the Lebanese scene tell
me hundreds of millions of election-related dollars are sloshing through the
economy. While rival regional powers such as Saudi Arabia are involved, a former
Lebanese army officer, speaking on condition of anonymity, says the Khomeinist
regime in Tehran has emerged as the "big spender," supplying its various agents,
clients and allies with "more money than they could use."
Tehran's objective is to replace the pro-West governing coalition known as the
March 14 Alliance (named for the date of the Cedar Revolution in 2005) with a
pro-Iran administration. That's part of a broader Iranian strategy to create a
network of sympathetic regimes in the region. The biggest recipient of Tehran's
largess is Hezbollah (the Party of Allah), the militant Shiite outfit that
Tehran created in 1983 and controls through some 500 members of the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Over the past three years, Tehran also has financed the creation of scores of
front companies in Lebanon. And through frontmen it has purchased substantial
tracts of land in some non-Shiite villages such as al Surayrah, al Qatrani and
al Aishiah in the Jabal Reyhan area of southern Lebanon to help its Shiite
clients achieve territorial contiguity from the Syrian to the Israeli border.
The strategy is aimed at creating a ministate within Lebanon to guarantee
Hezbollah a permanent territorial base.
Hezbollah is unlikely to win more than 10 or 11 of the 128 seats in the
unicameral parliament that appoints the prime minister and his cabinet. It has
formed a coalition including pro-Syrian Shiites campaigning under the label of
Amal (Hope) and a bloc of Maronite Christians led by ex-Gen. Michel Aoun. Still,
most opinion polls show that the pro-Tehran coalition may fall short of the 65
seats needed to control the parliament.
Since the March 14 Alliance, bringing together Sunni Muslims, Christians and
Druze, appears set to collect at least 58 seats, the balance of power would be
held by half a dozen independents and three or four members loyal to President
Michel Suleiman. And since the independents and pro-Suleiman members oppose
Iranian domination, they are likely to side with the pro-West coalition in a
showdown with the bloc led by Hezbollah.
Hezbollah could change the electoral arithmetic by murdering a few of the March
14 parliamentarians. This is precisely what happened in the course of the
current parliament, six of whose members have been assassinated, allegedly by
Hezbollah hit squads with help from the Syrian secret services. On May 23, the
German weekly Der Spiegel revealed that the United Nations' investigation into
the 2005 murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri now sees
Hezbollah as the culprit.
If Hezbollah were to gain control of the Lebanese government (behind a political
façade of the Aoun Christians and a sprinkling of others) it would hold real
power. It has a parallel army of 10,000 seasoned fighters trained and armed by
Tehran.
Not surprisingly, the media in Tehran are paying almost as much attention to the
Lebanese election on June 7 as to the Islamic Republic's own presidential
election five days later. Tehran believes the Lebanese election could affect the
Iranian presidential race. "We are heading for a hot June," according to an
analysis published by the official Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) last
week. "Victory in Lebanon will signal the start of our victory everywhere."
Tehran expects the Lebanese election to signal a "systemic change," the IRNA
analysis claims, bringing it in line with the broader Khomeinist worldview.
Lebanon, it says, would become a "bunker for the Khomeinist revolution" rather
than a "beach for corrupt westernized elites." Speeches made by Hezbollah
candidates such as Nawwaf al-Mussawi, who insists that the election is not
"about winning seats but changing the established order," echo that view.
The elections in Lebanon come at a propitious time for Iran. The U.S. is still
struggling to develop a coherent policy in the Middle East, based on the dubious
hope of transforming the Islamic Republic from foe to friend. Divisions among
Arab states also favor Tehran. At least three Arab states -- Oman, Qatar and
Yemen -- have already been "Finlandized," shunning all recent Arab attempts at
creating a unified bloc to oppose the Khomeinist regime's hegemonic ambitions.
Syria and Sudan are likely to support rather than oppose Tehran's ambitions. Two
other Arab states, Algeria and Libya, are expected to remain neutral.
If Lebanon comes under Iranian control it could become one arm of a pincer --
the other being Hamas-controlled Gaza -- designed to subject Israel to
low-intensity warfare that would, in time, sap its will to resist. With the
completion of the Israeli security fence along the West Bank within the next few
months, suicide attacks would become increasingly difficult to organize. The
fight, therefore, would shift to the skies with "an endless storm of rockets and
missiles raining on Israel from Lebanon and Gaza," as Hezbollah leader Hassan
Nasrallah said in an election campaign message last month.
With its clients in control of Lebanon, Iran would build a naval presence in the
Mediterranean for the first time since the seventh century. Experts from the
Revolutionary Guards have visited the port of Beirut and prepared plans for a
visit by an Iranian flotilla before the end of the summer. Six Iranian warships
are already on their way to the Red Sea, ostensibly to help combat pirates
operating from the Somali coast. In Tehran, there is also talk of helping
Hezbollah to develop its own naval units for "resistance operations" against
Israel.
Could President Obama do anything to affect the outcome of the Lebanese
election? He is popular there, and he has sent both Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton and Vice President Joseph Biden to Beirut to indicate support for the
democratic coalition.
The problem is that Mr. Obama is also perceived by many Arabs, including a good
chunk of the Lebanese, as someone who is preparing Americans for a strategic
sellout to the Islamic Republic. "Obama speaks sweetly," says a senior Egyptian
politician. "But he cannot advise people not to eat dates when he himself hopes
to eat some."
*Mr. Taheri's new book, "The Persian Night: Iran Under the Khomeinist
Revolution," is published by Encounter Books.
Battle for the vote
By: Lucy Fielder
Al-Ahram Weekly
May 05/06/09
Lebanon's Christian regions will see the fiercest competition in this week's
elections, Lucy Fielder reports from Metn
Billboards have become battlegrounds across Lebanon, but the highway north of
Beirut bristles with them. This is the start of the Christian heartlands of Metn,
then Kesrouan, two of the few districts where heated competition is expected in
the general elections on 7 June.
At the Dora junction, the image of a woman in designer sunglasses and orange
lipstick, pouting Je vote orange, is ubiquitous. Orange is the colour of popular
Christian leader Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement, which has arguably led
the billboard war in appealing to its largely middle class, youthful
support-base.
Samir Geagea's Lebanese Forces has also campaigned hard for the Christian areas
by stoking fears of a win by Aoun and his ally, Shia military and political
group Hizbullah. One series of advertisements features photographs of the street
battles of last May, when Hizbullah and its allies seized western Beirut and
other areas after a government clampdown on its communications network. "Your
vote changes the picture," the billboard reads.
According to Beirut-based magazine Arabad, politicians and supporters have
rented 15,000 "official" billboards for campaigning purposes, not including the
gaudily printed mug shots draped from numberless balconies. It estimates the
cost of renting and printing these billboards at $15 million. It is the first
campaign here to play out through such slogans. During the last vote, in 2005,
the main issue was the assassination of former prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri
and the subsequent Syrian withdrawal -- the two camps that were to polarise
Lebanon for the following four years were embryonic. Now, the anti-Syrian,
Western-backed March 14 movement and their opponents led by Iranian- backed Shia
group Hizbullah and its mainly Christian Aounist allies, appear to be having a
showdown through advertising space. Each side sees this election as fateful: the
decisive popularity contest.
"I think that this climate of political competition through billboards and
through TV advertisements really got started after the Syrian military departure
of 2005, because all of a sudden elections mattered," says Elias Muhanna, an
analyst who has blogged the campaign in detail. "In this election there's a lot
of competition for the Christian vote, and so all of a sudden deploying means of
persuading people who are undecided, who may not vote at all, or who are
apathetic about politics has become increasingly important." Prior to 2005,
elections were mainly decided in Damascus, which would witness a frantic
shuttling to-and-fro of Lebanese politicians in preceding weeks.
Under the deal brokered in Doha last year, a 1960s electoral law that is popular
among Christians was brought back in, partly at Aoun's behest. Carving the
districts up into small qada, it ensured that areas dominated by a particular
sect vote for their "own" seats under the sectarian system. With the Shia
overwhelmingly backing Hizbullah and its ally Amal, and Sunnis expected to
largely throw their weight behind Saad Al-Hariri's Future Movement, about 100 of
the 128 seats will be all but uncontested. So it is largely the Christian areas
that will decide who wins the 65-seat majority, with the main competition
shaping up to be in Mount Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley town of Zahleh, and Jezzine,
in the south, where Aoun is putting up a rival list to his Shia partner Nabih
Berri. Many pollsters are predicting a big win for the Free Patriotic Movement,
which is fielding 61 candidates. But in Metn, which fields a host of candidates,
locals say the race will be too close to call.
In Mansourieh, a sprawling, wealthy village in the hills above Beirut, flags of
the Phalange led by Amin Gemayel and towering pictures of his son Sami, standing
for a seat in this poll, vie with those of Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement and
the Lebanese Forces. Michel Murr, a scion of one of Lebanon's political
dynasties who bills himself as "centrist" but is seen by most as floating
somewhere between March 14 and President Michel Suleiman, also has a strong
presence. If the result of the elections is a tie, such politicians, and
Suleiman himself, may end up kingmakers.
Mansourieh is a typical Metn village, split between its traditional and civil
war allegiances and the newer force of Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement. Often
this division is generational, with those aged 30 and under adopting the Free
Patriotic Movement's mantra of change. Aoun, who fought the Syrians at the
tailend of the civil war, returned from exile in 2005. Many young followers see
his movement as untainted by the corruption and stalemate that characterised
post-civil war government. Although Aoun's surprise 2006 memorandum of
understanding with Hizbullah reportedly dented his support, he seems to have
clawed back. Many observers have pointed out that his campaign has relied on
promises of a brighter, if rather orange, vision of the future, as opposed to
the negative campaigning adopted by much of the March 14 camp, which rests
largely on portraying the dark alternatives to its staying in power: the return
of Syrian hegemony, an Iranian take-over, a slide into civil war, or all three.
Few villagers were prepared to make concrete predictions on such a divided
battlefield. At his shop, Dany Hajj was already stocking up on extra fireworks
for whichever side ends up celebrating. Outside, a stand boasted the flags of
all sides -- the lime green of Suleiman Frangieh's opposition Christian Marada,
the Lebanese Forces' cedar encircled by a "red line" that was alluded to in many
recent campaigns, the Phalange flag and the red of the Communist Party,
alongside the Free Patriotic Movement's orange. "We're a shop for all seasons,
even politically," Hajj joked. He supports Murr, but said Aounist flags are the
biggest sellers, followed by the Lebanese Forces. "It's too close to call," he
said. "It's going to be head to head."
Barber Maroun Mizher agrees. "The only thing I'm sure of is that the turnout
will be high," he said. "Here the competition is between several strong sides,
so no one knows who'll win. They're all afraid of tayyar [the Free Patriotic
Movement] though, so perhaps that's the strongest."
His customer, Farhan Batch, said he had never seen the atmosphere so tense in
the village ahead of an election. Mansourieh has already witnessed skirmishes.
The convoy of Ibrahim Kanaan was shot at in the village in mid-May, leading to a
barrage of accusations and counter- accusations. Last week, three people were
injured in clashes in Byblos, a coastal town north of Beirut.
"There's a real fear we'll have violence here," Batch said. "It's going to be a
real battle."
© Copyright Al-Ahram Weekly. All rights reserved
Will Syria intervene?
By: Bassel Oudat /Al-Ahram Weekly
Lebanon's 7 June parliamentary elections will be a showdown between two
coalitions whose battles have dominated Lebanese politics since the
assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri in 2005. The
primary point of difference between them is their position on Syria, and then on
Iran and the United States, this point argued in the context of either
supporting the Lebanese resistance or incorporating it into the Lebanese army.
One coalition is the March 14 alliance, which is in opposition to Syria and is
led by Saad Al-Hariri. It comprises the Future Movement (Saad Al-Hariri), the
Progressive Socialist Party (Walid Jumblatt), the Lebanese Forces (Samir Geagea),
and the Phalange Party (Amin Gemayel). The other is the March 8 alliance, which
is led by Hizbullah and supported by Syria and Iran. It comprises Hizbullah
(Hassan Nasrallah), the Amal Movement (Nabih Berri), the Free Patriotic Movement
(Michel Aoun), and other, weaker forces on the political front.
Many Lebanese supporters of the March 14 alliance are wondering to what extent
Syria might get re-involved in Lebanese affairs, directly or otherwise through
parliamentary elections, making Lebanon once again a site for regional and
international tension. They are trying to draw up scenarios for what Syria might
do if it senses that its allies won't win a parliamentary majority. They say
that Damascus wants a government submissive to the Syria-Iran axis; that block
or delay progress by international court on the assassination of Rafik
Al-Hariri; postpone drawing up borders between Syria and Lebanon; solve the
problem of the Shebaa Farms, occupied by Israel; retain the Syrian-Lebanese
Supreme Council; and ignore the demands for the return of Lebanese prisoners and
the "disappeared" in Syria. In other words, a government that would return to
the status quo before Syria departed from Lebanon.
Meanwhile, Syria is trying to appear indifferent to the Lebanese elections,
though many observers note how critical they will be for Damascus. These
observers say that Syria doesn't view this as a typical parliamentary election,
but rather as a destiny-forming stage in relations between the two countries.
Some Lebanese opponents to Syria are pointing to the existence of an "operations
room" overseen by Syrian security agencies and formed a year ago with the
primary goal of enabling the Lebanese opposition allied to Syria to win the
parliamentary elections. But Syria knows well how dangerous any direct
intervention in the Lebanese elections would be, and that it is being closely
watched. It knows that such involvement would bring undesirable results; that
the US opening up to it remains governed by detailed considerations; that
Damascus desperately wants Washington to appoint a new ambassador to Syria, and
for the new US administration to continue the dialogue it started with Syria a
few months ago.
Tripoli representative in the Future Movement, Mustafa Aloush, says that Iranian
and Syrian intervention is "clear among the March 8 forces, for they are
entering the elections in a single bloc led from abroad. The Syrian Social
Nationalist Party and the Baath Party don't have a popular base that would allow
them to get their candidates into parliamentary seats. Yet these two parties,
which are subservient to the Syrian regime, in fact hold parliamentary seats
secured through clear instructions given to Syria's allies in Lebanon. The
situation is the same with the Free Patriotic Movement -- directives order that
it increase its size even though Hizbullah and the Amal Movement are able to
contain it in their areas of influence and prevent it from winning any
parliamentary seats therein."
Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad has made numerous media statements over the
last three months declaring that what concerns Damascus in the Lebanese
elections is that "the Doha formulation for forming a national unity government
post-elections is carried out, regardless of who wins." He also said that
"elections neither bring nor end stability," but rather "accord is what brings
stability." Meanwhile, Syrian Minister of Foreign Affairs Walid Al-Muallim has
said that Syria "supports the upcoming Lebanese parliamentary elections taking
place at their scheduled time and being run securely and transparently." He also
said, "Whoever wins these elections wins," while adding, ominously to some, "but
the winner must read the Lebanese situation well." It is not clear whether this
was a Syrian threat or just wise advice to the Lebanese.
Syrian Ambassador to Washington Emad Mustafa gave a talk last March at the
Middle East Institute in the US in which he said that Syria "is not concerned
with the outcomes of the Lebanese elections" and that it "supports holding
peaceful elections". He added: "We know that the United States has allies in
Lebanon, and we also have allies. What we always tell our allies is to form a
shared government regardless of who wins."
Lebanese-Syrian relations became tense after the assassination of former premier
Al-Hariri and remained so until the middle of last year when the intervention of
French President Nicolas Sarkozy broke Damascus's isolation, and after Arab
states intervened to find a means of securing a domestic Lebanese accord. Syria
announced that it was prepared to exchange diplomatic representation with
Lebanon and reopen a number of suspended issues, such as the drawing of borders
and the file of "disappeared" Lebanese. The two countries now have ambassadors
to one another for the first time in their history.
On the international level, many European states fear Syria's direct or indirect
interference in upcoming Lebanese elections. France has called on Syria to "read
the outcomes of the Lebanese elections well" and to "act moderately"; that what
takes place in Lebanon following the elections "will affect the way that France
deals with [Syria], as well as America's opening up to it." French officials
pointed out that Syria "has not shown positive overtures or dialogued with the
international community since November".
On the part of the US, Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs
Jeffrey Feltman has said that the US "won't sacrifice Lebanese interests in its
sincere attempts to improve relations with Syria". Media reports have further
revealed that US Middle East envoy George Mitchell has postponed a visit to
Syria until after the Lebanese elections, and that he is "waiting to see in what
way Syria will interfere with the elections".
In the region, Saudi Arabia has denied suggestions of a Saudi-Syrian agreement
on the Lebanese elections, despite official Syrian sources having made reference
to an understanding not to intervene because "Lebanon is not ruled except by
agreement." Saudi Minister of Media Abdel-Aziz Khoja has said that Saudi Arabia
"doesn't interfere with the Lebanese domestic situation and won't interfere in
the future".
Iran says that it and Syria are accused of involvement in the Lebanese
elections. An Iranian official told the London-based Asharq Al-Awsat that Iran
and Syria "are discussing the Lebanese situation among other issues", including
the Lebanese elections. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says that the
outcomes of the Lebanese elections will be significant for the entire region.
Accusations related to the Lebanese parliamentary elections are numerous, but
perhaps the most explosive are accusations of foreign intervention in support of
the March 14 or March 8 alliances. To be sure, Lebanon has been a site of
regional and international conflict throughout its history. But with all sides
watching each other, margins for manoeuvre are slight.
Copyright Al-Ahram Weekly. All rights reserved